SBLII: Patriots vs. Eagles, the Build-Up

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singaporesoxfan

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Oh geez, Doug Pederson has Brett Favre lined up to come in on Saturday to talk to the Eagles. Who can Bill bring in? Drew Bledsoe? Wait, we have Tom Fucking Brady. Carry on.
Pederson and Favre are super close, so unsurprising. When Green Bay management couldn't reach Favre to tell him his father died, they reached out to Pederson, so it was Pederson who told him the news.
 

singaporesoxfan

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Random trivia note: I went through the playing history of the players on the Patriots roster. The current Patriots players include someone who has played on many of the other teams in the NFL - unsurprising given how much player movement there is. About the only teams that the Pats don't have an 'alumnus' of are: Jaguars, Vikings, Falcons, Panthers, Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders (and Cowboys/Giants depending on if you count Marty Bennett or not). Not sure if the correlation of that list with recent success is a coincidence.

Most surprising was that there seems to be only one player on the roster who's played for an AFC West team - Guy (Chargers). Did I miss something or are there really no ex-Broncos / Chiefs / Raiders players on the Pats?
 

simplyeric

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It is. I've watched that Allen block a dozen times.

I bet we see a short yardage play on Sunday where Allen blocks quickly then releases and Brady hits him for a big play.
Or if they are feeling uppity, a reverse where Allen motions in to block, the D line adjusts to accommodate, and then Allen takes a handoff (or a Brady "drop" pass) the opposite way.

538 with a look at how the offense has changed since Wentz went down. To my eye it hasn't looked much different, but it is.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nick-foles-is-not-carson-wentz-and-the-eagles-adjusted-accordingly/?ex_cid=538twitter
That's interesting...so I assume Pats will try to take away/limit those short routes (limiting YAC more than the short receptions themselves). The occasional lost yardage on 2nd down could result in a 3rd and long-ish (8-10), and also forces Foles/Eagles into making a lot of successful plays. Can they be patient patient, or do they try to knock the Pats back with a long ball, so the pass coverage has to concede more short space? Or, do we see the D try to trick Foles into medium/long passes into disguised coverage?
 

Oil Can Dan

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Pederson and Favre are super close, so unsurprising. When Green Bay management couldn't reach Favre to tell him his father died, they reached out to Pederson, so it was Pederson who told him the news.
It was Favre's wife Deanna that was on the phone, but otherwise, yes they are very close.
 

Saints Rest

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Or if they are feeling uppity, a reverse where Allen motions in to block, the D line adjusts to accommodate, and then Allen takes a handoff (or a Brady "drop" pass) the opposite way.



That's interesting...so I assume Pats will try to take away/limit those short routes (limiting YAC more than the short receptions themselves). The occasional lost yardage on 2nd down could result in a 3rd and long-ish (8-10), and also forces Foles/Eagles into making a lot of successful plays. Can they be patient patient, or do they try to knock the Pats back with a long ball, so the pass coverage has to concede more short space? Or, do we see the D try to trick Foles into medium/long passes into disguised coverage?
Last year we saw, kind of by necessity, the return of the direct-snap-to-RB goal-line play. I wonder if this is the year we see the return of the Vrabel-eligible TE TD. James Harrison, for the ultimate troll-job to Pitt? Another Solder TD?
 

Spelunker

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Last year we saw, kind of by necessity, the return of the direct-snap-to-RB goal-line play. I wonder if this is the year we see the return of the Vrabel-eligible TE TD. James Harrison, for the ultimate troll-job to Pitt? Another Solder TD?
You've ruined me. I will now be entirely disappointed when this doesn't actually happen.
 

simplyeric

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Last year we saw, kind of by necessity, the return of the direct-snap-to-RB goal-line play. I wonder if this is the year we see the return of the Vrabel-eligible TE TD. James Harrison, for the ultimate troll-job to Pitt? Another Solder TD?
I want to indulge in this type of speculation, but a while back I think I started a thread about it (might not have been me?) and it didn't go well. I don't think it was the Scottish Game. I think it was the Danish Game. (I need a term for the "other" Giants game... and there was definitely something rotten there)
 

jablo1312

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Rewatching every Brady dropback from last year's Super Bowl. First, I think this is one of the best throws of Brady's career that's relatively unheralded:


Beyond that, the offensive line got worked for the majority of that game. Jarrett put the moves on Mason a number of times, bench pressed Cannon out of the way to generate a sack, and wrecked overall havoc. A performance like that from Cox or Jernigan on Sunday goes a long way towards tilting the scales towards Philly. To their credit, the Pats held up well against Jacksonville, probably the best d-line unit the league. Biggest takeaway there for me was that they held Campbell, who is every bit Cox's peer, in check. He allegedly was slowed by some injury, but regardless the Pat's showed they can hang wtih an elite defensive line, and especially an elite group of interior pass rushers.

And unlike last year, and the majority of the AFCCG, they'll hopefully have 87 for the whole game. Which certainly makes a difference.
 

RedOctober3829

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Gronk, Wise, and Malcolm Brown were all limited in practice today which was in full pads. Other than those 3, everyone is in relatively good shape.

Belichick said at his press conference that he misspoke and that Gronk was NOT in the red non-contact jersey at practice.
 
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streeter88

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Only thing I have seen was he and Brown were “limited”
This is the thing we always laugh about with the Pats - that they are very secretive about injuries and only report what they have to. And our job as fans (in the spirit of "do your job") is to be ready to cheer on the team on Sunday, and leave the team preparations to the coaches and, well, the team.

All of that said, I find it a bit frustrating that we don't know how ready two key defensive line players are going to be on Sunday. The pass rush, from everything I have read, is going to be key on Sunday to disrupting Foles, and reminding everyone why the Eagles got Wentz.
 

DukeSox

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This is the thing we always laugh about with the Pats - that they are very secretive about injuries and only report what they have to. And our job as fans (in the spirit of "do your job") is to be ready to cheer on the team on Sunday, and leave the team preparations to the coaches and, well, the team.

All of that said, I find it a bit frustrating that we don't know how ready two key defensive line players are going to be on Sunday. The pass rush, from everything I have read, is going to be key on Sunday to disrupting Foles, and reminding everyone why the Eagles got Wentz.
"Today is Wednesday"
 

DJnVa

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bankshot1

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During the regular season

Eagles were 2-1 against play-off teams

Pats 5-2

Eagles didn't play many teams with good offenses and those they did scored mid-high 20s

I don't think they've played a a team as remotely good/multiple attack as Pats.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Everyone saying how ferocious the Eagles D-line is....wasn't Jacksonville's just as vaunted? The Patriots O-line did not have problems with the Jags front.
I find the coverage of the Eagles d-line a little bizarre too. Fletcher Cox is a complete beast but the talent isn't really that exceptional otherwise. Brandon Graham has been a good player for a long time but he's not some kind of outside sack machine - he's had 7 or more sacks once in eight years. And people talk about their DE depth like its this amazing asset but nobody was talking about the ability of the Patriots to bring Chris Long off the bench last year as some kind of ace in the hole. They've got one great player in Cox and then a very nice group of other good players to rotate. Its a team strength but they're not as good as the Jags up front, or some of the great DLs that the Patriots have struggled to handle in the playoffs (2007 or 2011 Giants, 2015 Broncos, even 2012 Ravens or 2014 Seahawks).
 

Super Nomario

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I find the coverage of the Eagles d-line a little bizarre too. Fletcher Cox is a complete beast but the talent isn't really that exceptional otherwise. Brandon Graham has been a good player for a long time but he's not some kind of outside sack machine - he's had 7 or more sacks once in eight years. And people talk about their DE depth like its this amazing asset but nobody was talking about the ability of the Patriots to bring Chris Long off the bench last year as some kind of ace in the hole. They've got one great player in Cox and then a very nice group of other good players to rotate. Its a team strength but they're not as good as the Jags up front, or some of the great DLs that the Patriots have struggled to handle in the playoffs (2007 or 2011 Giants, 2015 Broncos, even 2012 Ravens or 2014 Seahawks).
I pointed this out last night on Twitter, but the Patriots actually had a better sack rate than the Eagles (6.6% to 6.0%). Philadelphia apparently led the league in pressure rate per PFF, however.
 

slamminsammya

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My gut tells me whether you get a sack versus just a hurry is most dependent upon the qb, not the line. But rush or hurry is reflective of line talent.
 

Bobby Sprowl 2

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Just occurred to me, but with the baggage that accompanies a friendship with Trump, you have to figure at least that Kraft has a shot at getting that ring back from Putin.
 

BaseballJones

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During the regular season

Eagles were 2-1 against play-off teams

Pats 5-2

Eagles didn't play many teams with good offenses and those they did scored mid-high 20s

I don't think they've played a a team as remotely good/multiple attack as Pats.
Here was their schedule and the scoring averages of the teams they played, and the points they put up against the Eagles:

Was - 21.4 - 17
KC - 25.9 - 27
NYG - 15.4 - 24
LAC - 22.2 - 24
Ari - 18.4 - 7
Car - 22.7 - 23
Was - 21.4 - 24
SF - 20.7 - 10
Den - 18.1 - 23
Dal - 22.1 - 9
Chi - 16.5 - 3
Sea - 22.9 - 24
LAR - 29.9 - 35
NYG - 15.4 - 29
Dal - 22.1 - 6
Atl - 22.1 - 10
Min - 23.9 - 7

So the top 6offenses that scored 22.2 or better points a game...

LAR - 29.9 - 35 (+5.1)
KC - 25.9 - 27 (+1.1)
Min - 23.9 - 7 (-16.9)
Sea - 22.9 - 24 (+1.1)
Car - 22.7 - 23 (+0.3)
LAC - 22.2 - 24 (+1.8)

Five of the six of these teams scored more points against the Eagles than they did on average during the season. The one exception being the NFCCG of course.
 

pokey_reese

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Here was their schedule and the scoring averages of the teams they played, and the points they put up against the Eagles:

Was - 21.4 - 17
KC - 25.9 - 27
NYG - 15.4 - 24
LAC - 22.2 - 24
Ari - 18.4 - 7
Car - 22.7 - 23
Was - 21.4 - 24
SF - 20.7 - 10
Den - 18.1 - 23
Dal - 22.1 - 9
Chi - 16.5 - 3
Sea - 22.9 - 24
LAR - 29.9 - 35
NYG - 15.4 - 29
Dal - 22.1 - 6
Atl - 22.1 - 10
Min - 23.9 - 7

So the top 6offenses that scored 22.2 or better points a game...

LAR - 29.9 - 35 (+5.1)
KC - 25.9 - 27 (+1.1)
Min - 23.9 - 7 (-16.9)
Sea - 22.9 - 24 (+1.1)
Car - 22.7 - 23 (+0.3)
LAC - 22.2 - 24 (+1.8)

Five of the six of these teams scored more points against the Eagles than they did on average during the season. The one exception being the NFCCG of course.
Come on now, you are going to pick 22.2 points to cut out the Cowboys, who averaged 22.1 points? That cherry-picked 0.1 ppg is worth almost 40 points of good defense from PHI
 

BaseballJones

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Come on now, you are going to pick 22.2 points to cut out the Cowboys, who averaged 22.1 points? That cherry-picked 0.1 ppg is worth almost 40 points of good defense from PHI
Yep. :)

Joking aside, I was trying to quantify what Bankshot said here: "Eagles didn't play many teams with good offenses and those they did scored mid-high 20s"

His comment was general - I was trying to see what the numbers actually were. Definitely cherry-picked.
 

BaseballJones

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The pundits are citing the Patriots' poor run defense as a reason why Philly will control the ball with Ajayi and Blount. They are both good RBs for sure.

Here's the Pats' run defense the past few games...

Week 16 vs. Buf: 24 carries, 84 yards, 3.5 ypc (McCoy: 17 for 71)
Week 17 vs. NYJ: 19 carries, 40 yards, 2.1 ypc (Powell: 13 for 46)
Divisional round vs. Ten: 16 carries, 65 yards, 4.1 ypc (Henry: 12 for 28)
AFCCG vs. Jax: 32 carries, 101 yards, 3.2 ypc (Fournette: 24 for 76 yds)

So in their last four games, the Pats have allowed opponents:

91 carries, 290 yards, 3.2 ypc

The lead backs in these four games have managed 66 carries for 221 yards, 3.3 ypc.

I think (hope!) the run defense is going to be fine.
 

jsinger121

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The pundits are citing the Patriots' poor run defense as a reason why Philly will control the ball with Ajayi and Blount. They are both good RBs for sure.

Here's the Pats' run defense the past few games...

Week 16 vs. Buf: 24 carries, 84 yards, 3.5 ypc (McCoy: 17 for 71)
Week 17 vs. NYJ: 19 carries, 40 yards, 2.1 ypc (Powell: 13 for 46)
Divisional round vs. Ten: 16 carries, 65 yards, 4.1 ypc (Henry: 12 for 28)
AFCCG vs. Jax: 32 carries, 101 yards, 3.2 ypc (Fournette: 24 for 76 yds)

So in their last four games, the Pats have allowed opponents:

91 carries, 290 yards, 3.2 ypc

The lead backs in these four games have managed 66 carries for 221 yards, 3.3 ypc.

I think (hope!) the run defense is going to be fine.
And you can say that McCoy and Fournette are better than what Philly has in the backfield.
 

yecul

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The pundits are citing the Patriots' poor run defense as a reason why Philly will control the ball with Ajayi and Blount. They are both good RBs for sure.

Here's the Pats' run defense the past few games...

Week 16 vs. Buf: 24 carries, 84 yards, 3.5 ypc (McCoy: 17 for 71)
Week 17 vs. NYJ: 19 carries, 40 yards, 2.1 ypc (Powell: 13 for 46)
Divisional round vs. Ten: 16 carries, 65 yards, 4.1 ypc (Henry: 12 for 28)
AFCCG vs. Jax: 32 carries, 101 yards, 3.2 ypc (Fournette: 24 for 76 yds)

So in their last four games, the Pats have allowed opponents:

91 carries, 290 yards, 3.2 ypc

The lead backs in these four games have managed 66 carries for 221 yards, 3.3 ypc.

I think (hope!) the run defense is going to be fine.
The Eagles are a much better team and offense overall with stronger passing threats. And Foles is comparable to all those QBs this year in a single game.

Not to say the Pats are doomed, but it's reasonable to expect the Eagles to be able to have rushing success with the Pats D thinned out a bit.

The Pats moving quick on O and scoring TDs will mitigate any potential running thread. Doing so and hitting 3-out will be a disaster. I am interested to see BB's gameplan.
 

BigSoxFan

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Just landed in Minneapolis wearing my Gronk jersey. Tons of Eagles fans. Got booed on my flight walking up the aisle. Was too early to come up with anything witty so I welcome suggestions for future interactions. They seem...excited.
 

TheoShmeo

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Just landed in Minneapolis wearing my Gronk jersey. Tons of Eagles fans. Got booed on my flight walking up the aisle. Was too early to come up with anything witty so I welcome suggestions for future interactions. They seem...excited.
Get ready for a lot more of the same. I was at 6 Pats/Brady SBs and SB 39 stands out — by far — as the most lopsided in the opposing fans to Pats fans ratio. They were also, consistent with their reputation, the douchiest.

My suggestion for future interactions is boring: Don’t engage.
 
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