Round 2: Celtics vs. Bucks

Who wins?


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TripleOT

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There’s no way that team folds one quarter into game two. It’s going to be a battle until the end.
When they got punched in the face early today, the reserves and Middleton hit a few shots to get back in it. When the Celtics hit them with a second half punch, they folded.
 

DJnVa

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Let's remember that we match up well against the Bucks (and Philly for that matter), but poorly against Toronto, and the regular-season games against the Raptors (where we appeared to be trying) did not go well for us.

We were 2-2 vs. Toronto this year and 1-2 vs. Bucks, with 1 blowout loss to each. Rest of the games were competitive.

What did you see that went poorly? The other loss to Toronto was a 2 point game with 3 minutes left.
 

benhogan

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I agree with Baynes limited playing time but to me it isn’t about keeping max shooting on the floor but rather for transition defense which is critical to slowing down the Bucks secondary break to keep them in a half court structured set as much as possible.
HRB, you completely whiffed with this post, sure didn't age well today. A healthy Baynes half court and transition defense were stifling today...as expected

but never mind Baynes obscenely good defense, let's discuss Al Horford's defense against the best 4 in the game.

mcpickl and I are still waiting for that list of yours of all the 4s Al Horford can't guard in this modern NBA?
 
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DJnVa

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Well, he can guard anyone when the game starts at 1 pm.

I kid, I kid.
 

HomeRunBaker

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There’s no way that team folds one quarter into game two. It’s going to be a battle until the end.
I listened to 1Q on NBA Radio driving home and this reminds me of what one do the announcers said emphatically after Horford missed a jumper, “That’s a BIG miss. It would have made it a 7 POINT Celtics lead!!”

This was like 6 min into the game LOL.
 

HomeRunBaker

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night games the rest of the way, hence why he has the Bucks in 5
Lol.

I’m surprised nobody here has mentioned one of the keys to our game which was the transition defense even with the Bucks being lethargic in pushing tempo. I discussed this at beginning of thread but THE key to stopping Giannis and the Bucks is to take away their secondary break.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Curious how you think the game unfolded in a novel way.
Well maybe novel isn't the best term but the Horford, Morris, Brown, Tatum, Irving line-up started exactly one other game this season and Boston lost that game. I know Smart being out has caused Stevens to reset some things but this was a wrinkle the Bucks (and many others) probably didn't see coming and allowed for the C's to play switch everything for several stretches.

That said, the Giannis wall worked and the C's/Horford were able to essentially force him into bad shots either at the wrong side of the rim or at spots on the floor where they know he isn't as lethal. They also did a fantastic job at making the Bucks other guys beat them - and of course they didn't.

On offense, the Irving/Horford PnR is a killer. They simply cannot stop it right now. Budenhozer will adjust but its not clear if whatever changes he makes will do the trick. Having Brown and Hayward roam around as catch and shoot guys with the former hunting put-backs and layups is another huge luxury.

This series isn't over by any stretch but you have to think that the Bucks, at the very least, are a touch worried that the C's may have their number. I don't necessarily buy into that stuff but every little edge counts and right now the C's have the psychological high ground for whatever its worth.
 

mcpickl

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Lol.

I’m surprised nobody here has mentioned one of the keys to our game which was the transition defense even with the Bucks being lethargic in pushing tempo. I discussed this at beginning of thread but THE key to stopping Giannis and the Bucks is to take away their secondary break.
It's tough to run transition when you're constantly inbounding the ball after made baskets.

Also helped stop it by having Lopez away from the hoop, the defensive rebounds they were getting were mostly being grabbed by the guys you'd want leading the break. Instead of catching an outlet pass near half court they were securing the rebound.

Celtics will have to remain vigilant on it. Assuming they shoot worse in game two, they have to keep hustling back and having two guys in the paint when Giannis crosses half court with the ball. If there's only one guy there, it's almost a guaranteed and-one opportunity.
 

TripleOT

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Lol.

I’m surprised nobody here has mentioned one of the keys to our game which was the transition defense even with the Bucks being lethargic in pushing tempo. I discussed this at beginning of thread but THE key to stopping Giannis and the Bucks is to take away their secondary break.
It's a lot easier to play transition defense when the other team is taking the ball out of the net. From the point the Cs took an 8-7 lead with 7:12 left, the Bucks got only three defensive rebounds the rest of the first quarter. In the third quarter, from when Kyrie put the Celtics up two with 9:34 left, the Bucks grabbed only five defensive rebounds during a Celtics 20-5 run, , including only one in the last six minutes, when the Cs locked up the game.
 

TripleOT

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It's a lot easier to play transition defense when the other team is taking the ball out of the net. From the point the Cs took an 8-7 lead with 7:12 left, the Bucks got only three defensive rebounds the rest of the first quarter. In the third quarter, from when Kyrie put the Celtics up two with 9:34 left, the Bucks grabbed only five defensive rebounds during a Celtics 20-5 run, , including only one in the last six minutes, when the Cs locked up the game.
EDIT: what mcpickl said
 

HomeRunBaker

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It's tough to run transition when you're constantly inbounding the ball after made baskets.

Also helped stop it by having Lopez away from the hoop, the defensive rebounds they were getting were mostly being grabbed by the guys you'd want leading the break. Instead of catching an outlet pass near half court they were securing the rebound.

Celtics will have to remain vigilant on it. Assuming they shoot worse in game two, they have to keep hustling back and having two guys in the paint when Giannis crosses half court with the ball. If there's only one guy there, it's almost a guaranteed and-one opportunity.
We were definitely making our shots which naturall slows down the tempo but I’m referring mostly to the strategic action regardless of the ball going through the hoop. We were retreating multiple players on nearly every shot or penetration. The 3 offensive rebounds we had in this game occurred by accident and not design.
 

InstaFace

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We were 2-2 vs. Toronto this year and 1-2 vs. Bucks, with 1 blowout loss to each. Rest of the games were competitive.

What did you see that went poorly? The other loss to Toronto was a 2 point game with 3 minutes left.
I'll get into it more if we're lucky enough to get them as an ECF matchup, but I think Kawhi and Siakam present a mix of skills that our D, especially, is not nearly as prepared to handle as they are for most other teams. I think we're prepared for Kyle Lowry as a poor man's John Wall, but the rest of their lineup is really strong and attacks the basket in packs (as opposed to a Giannis or Lebron-style iso). Kawhi isn't as unguardable as, say, Durant, but he has no holes in his game on either side and they can employ dozens of different strategies with him across a series based on what is working or might work. Even on their second unit, Valanciunas always seems to go off against us, or create enough havoc in the interior that something breaks down and someone else goes off as a result.

It's not like they're some unstoppable juggernaut, but I'm definitely rooting for Philly, bad taste and all.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I'll get into it more if we're lucky enough to get them as an ECF matchup, but I think Kawhi and Siakam present a mix of skills that our D, especially, is not nearly as prepared to handle as they are for most other teams. I think we're prepared for Kyle Lowry as a poor man's John Wall, but the rest of their lineup is really strong and attacks the basket in packs (as opposed to a Giannis or Lebron-style iso). Kawhi isn't as unguardable as, say, Durant, but he has no holes in his game on either side and they can employ dozens of different strategies with him across a series based on what is working or might work. Even on their second unit, Valanciunas always seems to go off against us, or create enough havoc in the interior that something breaks down and someone else goes off as a result.

It's not like they're some unstoppable juggernaut, but I'm definitely rooting for Philly, bad taste and all.
Jonas was disappeared to Memphis as part of the Gasol deal.

The C's have the length and switchability to hang with Toronto - my big question is whether they have the scoring. Unlike Milwaukee, Toronto is more like Boston in that they have more than a few guys who can be volume scorers. And they were much better than the Celtics at scoring this season too.
 

InstaFace

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fuck, was just coming here to edit that. Was going off memory, guess I'm busted. Oh well, not like Gasol was anything but an upgrade (Ibaka went from starting C to backup C), and he's averaged 25 MPG in the playoffs so far.

and I disagree about the switchability, my impression is that there are a lot of bad switched matchups we can get into against Toronto that aren't nearly as plentiful elsewhere. That game in February, I distinctly remember Siakam roasting everyone not named Al Horford. Kawhi can seemingly get himself iso'd against whichever PG is on the floor. I think that's part of what you're talking about with scoring, of course, but what I'm saying is that Toronto's talents create matchup disadvantages for us, neutralizing what is normally a core pillar of our defensive advantage (switching everything or almost-everything).

If this ends up the ECF pairing, I'll look forward to deeper breakdowns on that than I'm capable of mustering. But I did think most people here felt that we matched up against Toronto worst out of all the eastern contenders, didn't think that was a controversial statement.
 

benhogan

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Celtics vs Bucks thread.

Maybe some other thread can be created for future match-ups?

Then the handwringing about Kawhi, Siakam Curry, Durant, Harden can commence
 

Imbricus

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Game 2 should be interesting. Milwaukee shot poorly -- yes, partly because of the Celtics defense, but I doubt they'll keep shooting that poorly. If their shooting improves, that will make it harder for so many Celtics to sag back as quickly on Giannis. Meanwhile the Celtics' execution was beautiful in game one on offense, moving the ball around, but we've seen this story before: they execute great when they're up by 10 or the score is close, but when they fall into a hole they lapse into hero ball and long two-pointers.

I still like their chances. That team yesterday was the team we were expecting on day one of the season. But this next game will be equally telling, after we see what adjustments the Bucks make, and what happens when the shooting percentages normalize a bit.
 

uk_sox_fan

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So far the Celtics are 5-0 in the playoffs. 2-0 at home, and 3-0 on the road. Against teams with a combined record of 108-56 (.659).

Average score:
- Home: 92-83
- Road: 109-97
Expanding that, in the playoffs for the past year the Sox, Pats, B's and C's are a collective 10-5 at home, 13-2 on the road and 1-0 in a neutral game in Atlanta. Even more telling they are 24-0 when scoring more than 2 runs/points/goals and 0-7 when tallying 1 or 2 (which bodes really well for the Celtics...)
 

Soxfan in Fla

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HRB, you completely whiffed with this post, sure didn't age well today. A healthy Baynes half court and transition defense were stifling today...as expected

but never mind Baynes obscenely good defense, let's discuss Al Horford's defense against the best 4 in the game.

mcpickl and I are still waiting for that list of yours of all the 4s Al Horford can't guard in this modern NBA?
Don’t expect the smartest guy in the room to ever actually answer.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Lol.

I’m surprised nobody here has mentioned one of the keys to our game which was the transition defense even with the Bucks being lethargic in pushing tempo. I discussed this at beginning of thread but THE key to stopping Giannis and the Bucks is to take away their secondary break.
I think most of us call it "building the wall," with hands out. As one of the videos upthread mentions, Giannis seems to be bothered when he sees multiple guys in front of him with their hands out.

edit: it was the Scouting with Bryan video that lovetgm posted (Bryan apparently neing an ex-NBA scout). Re-posting it if anyone missed it.

 

Devizier

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I have seen quite a few posts here and Tweets lamenting the fact that the C's cannot seem to get foul calls. I don't know what the correlation is between FTA and wins so perhaps this is just small sample size (though I posted earlier that four of the top ten FTA teams this season were lottery teams) however I would argue that drawing fouls and getting to the line may not be as important as some people thought.
I wonder if it comes down to a simple calculus of taking more open shots; Contested shots therefore leading to more fouls. Just speculation though.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Don’t expect the smartest guy in the room to ever actually answer.
It seemed kind of weird that he claimed I whiffed on a post where I said Baynes’ minutes would be limited and that transition defense would be crucial.......in a game where Baynes played 9 minutes while Brad retreated multiple players on jumpers and penetration to stop the Bucks secondary transition. The other pregame post was about how if we are ready we can take advantage of what I expect will be a sluggish home team with a noon start.

So I have no idea why benhogan decided to come after me when this game was the perfect storm. One team was prepared to compete and the other wasn’t. It was a crucial win for us as we don’t need another win in Milwaukee this series if we can take care of business at home but did anyone feel this was the same Bucks team we saw all season?

Yeah and on a message board where you state your positions has a lot to do with claiming to be “the smartest guy in the room”.......which I don’t recall anyone ever claiming.
 

benhogan

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I think most of us call it "building the wall," with hands out. As one of the videos upthread mentions, Giannis seems to be bothered when he sees multiple guys in front of him with their hands out.

edit: it was the Scouting with Bryan video that lovetgm posted (Bryan apparently neing an ex-NBA scout). Re-posting it if anyone missed it.

Exactly, on misses, the Celtics were very organized on defensive transition with either Horford or Baynes at the nail, 3 players across, arms extended. The narrative, that Baynes (or Horford) are BIGs, that can't move in transition or guard laterally on the perimeter was false yesterday and has been all season. If anything they are plus defenders in those situations, as proven by their reg. season defensive metrics.

In the halfcourt, Al and Aron stifled GA. Giannis kicking it to Middleton seemed to work early, but the Bucks clearly missed their most efficient 3pt shooter, Malcolm Brogdon (42.6%). They got very little from Bledsoe (6pts), Brown (3pts) & Connaughton (5pts) for a combined 4-22 FG and 2-14 3P.

Now that the cat is out of the bag I'd expect Milwaukee to adjust and win Game 2, its a borderline must-win game for them (still haven't recovered from the '86 World Series).
 
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benhogan

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It seemed kind of weird that he claimed I whiffed on a post where I said Baynes’ minutes would be limited and that transition defense would be crucial.......in a game where Baynes played 9 minutes while Brad retreated multiple players on jumpers and penetration to stop the Bucks secondary transition. The other pregame post was about how if we are ready we can take advantage of what I expect will be a sluggish home team with a noon start.

So I have no idea why benhogan decided to come after me when this game was the perfect storm. One team was prepared to compete and the other wasn’t. It was a crucial win for us as we don’t need another win in Milwaukee this series if we can take care of business at home but did anyone feel this was the same Bucks team we saw all season?

Yeah and on a message board where you state your positions has a lot to do with claiming to be “the smartest guy in the room”.......which I don’t recall anyone ever claiming.
Baynes played 1 minute in the 2nd half due to injury. AB played 8 minutes on Giannis (over 40% of his minutes) in the first half. Brad was going out of his way to put Baynes on the floor w/Giannis.

You posted this week that Baynes would struggle in defensive transition. AB didn't yesterday and hasn't struggled in transition all season. lovegtm and myself immediately doubted your notion.

It may help to watch the first half yesterday, sounds like you listened to it on the radio? (post #208) Then you'd get a better picture on how Horford and Baynes slowed Giannis down. Looking at the box score really won't help you appreciate what happened yesterday.

The "Baynes is washed up in the pace era/Horford can't guard the 4" debate has been a season-long debate between us, once I get your mea culpa I'll let it go.:)
 
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tbrown_01923

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As much as I loved Baynes on Giannis - his limited minutes came when the bucks were already struggling. He moved his feet well and retreated without fouling staying between gainnis and the goal before going straight up. But an easy adjustment there would have been for GHiannis to stop 4 feet from the hoop for a floater / bunny of some sort. But he just kept coming straight into AB's body - perhaps overreacting to need to get to the rim.

it was a great game plan - one that the team executed on ut also one that the bucks played into a bit. we should expect more from middleton too. but if we give them three extra threes to even there percentage with ours - does it make that much difference? The key is getting Giannis to continue to play into your hand.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Baynes played 1 minute in the 2nd half due to injury. AB played 8 minutes on Giannis (over 40% of his minutes) in the first half. Brad was going out of his way to put Baynes on the floor w/Giannis.
lovegtm and myself immediately doubted the notion that AB would have trouble in transition.

It may help to watch the first half yesterday, sounds like you listened to it on the radio? (post #208) Then you'd get a better picture on how Horford and Baynes slowed Giannis down. Looking at the box score really won't help you appreciate what happened yesterday.
I don’t mind our back and forth at all. I actually enjoy it because it is always lighthearted and we are jovial following a huge win. The shit that sometimes sucks on this or any board is when someone jumps in with comments such as the “smartest person in the room” one above without adding anything else to the conversation.

I had to DVR part of the game which sucked but such is life. My opinion was that this was a perfect storm.....great strategy which I absolutely appreciated but also a lethargic Giannis, and some fortunate officiating which allowed us to play physical on him without any whistles. It’s one game in what probably would be a long series. Hopefully a win tomorrow can help shorten it.
 

lovegtm

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I had to DVR part of the game which sucked but such is life. My opinion was that this was a perfect storm.....great strategy which I absolutely appreciated but also a lethargic Giannis, and some fortunate officiating which allowed us to play physical on him without any whistles. It’s one game in what probably would be a long series. Hopefully a win tomorrow can help shorten it.
This is a good point—Al and Mook were getting away with a fair amount, and if the officials decide to make a point of tightening that up, Al in foul trouble would be devastating.

I’m mostly concerned that “play harder, everybody!” is often a good playoff adjustment for talented teams like Milwaukee, and I expect everyone to be turned up to 11 on Tuesday.

The Middleton struggles are the part I think will be for real. Brown and Tatum are awful matchups for him, and they’re each a year older, stronger, and more experienced now.
 

benhogan

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I don’t mind our back and forth at all. I actually enjoy it because it is always lighthearted and we are jovial following a huge win. The shit that sometimes sucks on this or any board is when someone jumps in with comments such as the “smartest person in the room” one above without adding anything else to the conversation.

I had to DVR part of the game which sucked but such is life. My opinion was that this was a perfect storm.....great strategy which I absolutely appreciated but also a lethargic Giannis, and some fortunate officiating which allowed us to play physical on him without any whistles. It’s one game in what probably would be a long series. Hopefully a win tomorrow can help shorten it.
yea, the "smartest guy in the room stuff" should bounce off of you. I try not to make any of this stuff personal. The too and fro all season has been good fun, especially after a big win. I've taken my fair share of arrows and ribbing on my Baynes zealousness from many, deservedly so. It's all part of being passionate about this team, forming an opinion and posting a lot. More importantly, you should have made a few shekels off your bookie. You immediately called the Bucks being at a disadvantage with the early start time. Not sure how Vegas could put the start time in their equation, but the situation became very binary.
:drunk:
 
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Jimbodandy

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Game 2 should be interesting. Milwaukee shot poorly -- yes, partly because of the Celtics defense, but I doubt they'll keep shooting that poorly. If their shooting improves, that will make it harder for so many Celtics to sag back as quickly on Giannis. Meanwhile the Celtics' execution was beautiful in game one on offense, moving the ball around, but we've seen this story before: they execute great when they're up by 10 or the score is close, but when they fall into a hole they lapse into hero ball and long two-pointers.

I still like their chances. That team yesterday was the team we were expecting on day one of the season. But this next game will be equally telling, after we see what adjustments the Bucks make, and what happens when the shooting percentages normalize a bit.
I concur with you and others that adjustments will be made, particularly around how to free up Middleton better. However, I'm not convinced that we saw much to convince us that the Giannis strategy won't work again. It's not like we gave up loads of open threes, and they just didn't drop. Lopez and Ilyosova should probably hit a couple more, but guys weren't camping successfully. We did a great job building the wall and guarding the line.

Milwaukee needs to figure out how to speed the game up and how to create better actions for KM. But the rest of the adjustments have to be made on defense. I think that they will have to accept that scoring on the Cs will be tough and just try to reciprocate.
 

JCizzle

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God help me if that game is an example of the refs helping the Celtics. The Bucks tripled us at the line and committed half as many fouls. We scored ten+ more points in the paint so we had our share of points down low. If anything, I agree with something Chad Finn noted during the game: Kyrie is so good at contorting his body that he doesn't get the calls he deserves. If anything, he should be the one expecting better treatment moving forward. If I should brace myself for the Bucks getting 5x as many FTA, then what's even the point.
 

Jimbodandy

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God help me if that game is an example of the refs helping the Celtics. The Bucks tripled us at the line and committed half as many fouls. We scored ten+ more points in the paint so we had our share of points down low. If anything, I agree with something Chad Finn noted during the game: Kyrie is so good at contorting his body that he doesn't get the calls he deserves. If anything, he should be the one expecting better treatment moving forward. If I should brace myself for the Bucks getting 5x as many FTA, then what's even the point.
Harden shot 14 free throws yesterday after leading the league by a wide magin, and conventional wisdom this morning is that he got royally fucked by the refs.

Giannis was like #2/#3 in FTA and only got to the line 10 times yesterday. If the over is set at 18 for game 2, I'd take the over.
 

lovegtm

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God help me if that game is an example of the refs helping the Celtics. The Bucks tripled us at the line and committed half as many fouls. We scored ten+ more points in the paint so we had our share of points down low. If anything, I agree with something Chad Finn noted during the game: Kyrie is so good at contorting his body that he doesn't get the calls he deserves. If anything, he should be the one expecting better treatment moving forward. If I should brace myself for the Bucks getting 5x as many FTA, then what's even the point.
Giannis is 10x better at using size/quickness to put defenders out of position than all of the Celtics combined. It’s incredibly rare to have someone that much more physically dominant and skilled/quick down low, and he’s rewarded appropriately. The Celtics are lucky to have Horford, who’s nearly that much of a freak (physically and mentally) on the defensive end, so he can defend without fouling.

Kyrie has 2-3 plays/game where you think “maybe should have gotten a whistle there.” Giannis is in that spot every play, even if he doesn’t (and shouldn’t) get whistles on every play.

The Celtics make up for it by generating open shots—their average look yesterday was miles better quality than the Bucks’ average look. It’s a function of personnel and strategy.
 

Captaincoop

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Game 2 should be interesting. Milwaukee shot poorly -- yes, partly because of the Celtics defense, but I doubt they'll keep shooting that poorly. If their shooting improves, that will make it harder for so many Celtics to sag back as quickly on Giannis. Meanwhile the Celtics' execution was beautiful in game one on offense, moving the ball around, but we've seen this story before: they execute great when they're up by 10 or the score is close, but when they fall into a hole they lapse into hero ball and long two-pointers.

I still like their chances. That team yesterday was the team we were expecting on day one of the season. But this next game will be equally telling, after we see what adjustments the Bucks make, and what happens when the shooting percentages normalize a bit.
The only way that game 2 will tell us anything meaningful will be if the Celtics win - because that will tell us this series is dunzo.

Everyone should go in expecting a good Milwaukee team to play desperate in game 2 and get a boost from the crowd and the officials.

If the Celtics win tomorrow, #18 is going to start peaking over the horizon.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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God help me if that game is an example of the refs helping the Celtics. The Bucks tripled us at the line and committed half as many fouls. We scored ten+ more points in the paint so we had our share of points down low. If anything, I agree with something Chad Finn noted during the game: Kyrie is so good at contorting his body that he doesn't get the calls he deserves. If anything, he should be the one expecting better treatment moving forward. If I should brace myself for the Bucks getting 5x as many FTA, then what's even the point.
Why do FTA matter? I used to share the view that they were hugely important but now I am questioning that along with the value of "referee help".

I get that for good FT shooters, the expected value is more than any other shot but I am starting to question whether more FTA/opportunities increases the odds of winning. There are a number of pieces out there online and some suggest that they aren't that important.
 

TripleOT

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No one should be surprised that the Celtics will concentrate on transition defense. Boston was 20th in offensive rebounding and the Bucks were number 1 in defensive rebounding. They're not going to be jamming the offensive glass.

Stopping runouts, slowing secondary offense, and taking away the other team's best weapons is how teams are supposed to approach a playoff series.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Harden shot 14 free throws yesterday after leading the league by a wide magin, and conventional wisdom this morning is that he got royally fucked by the refs.

Giannis was like #2/#3 in FTA and only got to the line 10 times yesterday. If the over is set at 18 for game 2, I'd take the over.
Yeah the number of FTA each team takes is not at all indicative of how the game was officiated. The Bucks style of play, Giannis’ skillset, and the Celtics players lack of ability in drawing contact should lead to every game having an enormous FTA advantage for the Bucks in an intense playoff game.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I concur with you and others that adjustments will be made, particularly around how to free up Middleton better. However, I'm not convinced that we saw much to convince us that the Giannis strategy won't work again. It's not like we gave up loads of open threes, and they just didn't drop. Lopez and Ilyosova should probably hit a couple more, but guys weren't camping successfully. We did a great job building the wall and guarding the line.

Milwaukee needs to figure out how to speed the game up and how to create better actions for KM. But the rest of the adjustments have to be made on defense. I think that they will have to accept that scoring on the Cs will be tough and just try to reciprocate.
I was semi-speed watching the game on DVR so maybe this is just small sample size.

Some of the scouting reports had mentioned that MIL was able to hurt the Cs with sets using Giannis setting the picks. For some reason - a couple of times because the Cs defenders were good fighting over the Giannis screen and a couple of times because MIL worked on the small-big "mismatch," rather than the Giannis-guard mismatch, the Cs were able to defend it.

I don't think MIL has a lot of counters because they are so dependent on Giannis to create space. One counter I do expect to see is Giannis setting picks and then taking the guard into the post and see what he can create from there. I expect the Cs will immediately double-team at that point and then it's a race to see whether the ball or the Cs rotations will get to the open man first.

MIL misses Brogdan much more than we miss Marcus.
 

Jimbodandy

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Yeah the number of FTA each team takes is not at all indicative of how the game was officiated. The Bucks style of play, Giannis’ skillset, and the Celtics players lack of ability in drawing contact should lead to every game having an enormous FTA advantage for the Bucks in an intense playoff game.
No argument with the Bucks and Giannis in particular belonging at the line more. Not our style, but it is his style. He's good at generating contact and, to a lesser extent, should get the star treatment.

What I'm saying is that Giannis getting 10 FTA is an indicator that the game was not called tightly. And the league will take note. Perception of Harden being jobbed will possibly add to it. Silber has spent time on the phone since yesterday afternoon, specifically around fouls.

Do we get Scott Foster for game 2, or does GS/Houston?
 
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Jimbodandy

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I was semi-speed watching the game on DVR so maybe this is just small sample size.

Some of the scouting reports had mentioned that MIL was able to hurt the Cs with sets using Giannis setting the picks. For some reason - a couple of times because the Cs defenders were good fighting over the Giannis screen and a couple of times because MIL worked on the small-big "mismatch," rather than the Giannis-guard mismatch, the Cs were able to defend it.

I don't think MIL has a lot of counters because they are so dependent on Giannis to create space. One counter I do expect to see is Giannis setting picks and then taking the guard into the post and see what he can create from there. I expect the Cs will immediately double-team at that point and then it's a race to see whether the ball or the Cs rotations will get to the open man first.

MIL misses Brogdan much more than we miss Marcus.
That's a good counter. They need to create some flow for Giannis and Middleton. Some cutters would be nice too.

From what I saw, the Cs did a half decent job playing some of the picks, but Milwaukee gave up too quickly. Giannis should be a force as a screen setter, and they have plenty of big frames to use on back screens and such. Any movement at all would help their half court.

I think that the key is still speeding up the game. If they can't create points in transition, they are truly fucked.
 

NomarsFool

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Yeah the number of FTA each team takes is not at all indicative of how the game was officiated. The Bucks style of play, Giannis’ skillset, and the Celtics players lack of ability in drawing contact should lead to every game having an enormous FTA advantage for the Bucks in an intense playoff game.
Totally agree that there should be a difference in FTA for each team based on their differences in style of play. I'm not sure I'd say there should be an "enormous" difference. If the Celtics and Bucks had the same FTA in a game, I'd estimate (without watching the actual game) that the Bucks got hosed by the refs. If the Bucks had 50 more FTA, I'd say the Celtics got hosed.

Game 1 was 24-8. Without breaking down every play, I don't think the Bucks could argue that they got hosed and I think one could argue the officiating was a little more in their favor - but not my a lot. I'm sure Tommy was going berserk :)
 

tims4wins

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Home teams have lost game 1 at home in a best of 7 series by 20+ four previous times. 3 of those 4 lost the series. The exception was the 2017 Spurs vs. Houston.

Others: 2009 Blazers vs. Rockets, 1996 Spurs vs. Jazz, 1985 Bucks vs. Sixers.

None of those teams was the 1 seed in their conference. I like that the Bucks have a history here.
 

the moops

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The pick n roll, pick n pop, between Kyrie and Horford is so damn good. I am not sure how you stop that short of exposing yourself to an open corner three by doubling Kyrie immediately.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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The Bucks had absolutely no answer for the Kyrie/Horford pick and roll, pick and pop game. If Horford didn't miss a number of early shots, the game would've been even uglier. If the Bucks can't figure that out, they're in a lot of trouble.

What got them in a lot of trouble was having their big man in no-man's land. I think they'll try a couple of things: -Have Lopez trap Kyrie to get the ball out of his hands. Live with Al taking open jumpers or rotate on defense, leading to open corner 3's from guys like Tatum, Brown or Hayward.
-Get better wing support after the P&R- Get the wing defender to pinch so Lopez can stay with Horford- would lead to them living with more open corner 3's.
-Less Lopez. If the C's are going to have Horford defend Giannis and Lopez is going to live at the 3 point line, the C's will take that all day and stick someone like Morris on him. He can't really park himself in the paint, either, because Giannis needs room to operate. The problem the Bucks have if they take him out is Mirotic and Ilyasova are similar to Lopez. They're bigs who can hit the 3 but can't really create for themselves and aren't going to help much on defense. Giannis, Middleton, Brown, Bledsoe, Hill? That's an incredibly small lineup, but you have Giannis on Al and he can switch onto Kyrie 1:1. Middleton guards Morris, Brown guards Tatum, Bledsoe on Jaylen and Hill on Kyrie. The C's should dominate on the boards and Al would abuse their guards if Giannis switched onto Kyrie, but I think this could work. Am I crazy?
 

lovegtm

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The Bucks had absolutely no answer for the Kyrie/Horford pick and roll, pick and pop game. If Horford didn't miss a number of early shots, the game would've been even uglier. If the Bucks can't figure that out, they're in a lot of trouble.

What got them in a lot of trouble was having their big man in no-man's land. I think they'll try a couple of things: -Have Lopez trap Kyrie to get the ball out of his hands. Live with Al taking open jumpers or rotate on defense, leading to open corner 3's from guys like Tatum, Brown or Hayward.
-Get better wing support after the P&R- Get the wing defender to pinch so Lopez can stay with Horford- would lead to them living with more open corner 3's.
-Less Lopez. If the C's are going to have Horford defend Giannis and Lopez is going to live at the 3 point line, the C's will take that all day and stick someone like Morris on him. He can't really park himself in the paint, either, because Giannis needs room to operate. The problem the Bucks have if they take him out is Mirotic and Ilyasova are similar to Lopez. They're bigs who can hit the 3 but can't really create for themselves and aren't going to help much on defense. Giannis, Middleton, Brown, Bledsoe, Hill? That's an incredibly small lineup, but you have Giannis on Al and he can switch onto Kyrie 1:1. Middleton guards Morris, Brown guards Tatum, Bledsoe on Jaylen and Hill on Kyrie. The C's should dominate on the boards and Al would abuse their guards if Giannis switched onto Kyrie, but I think this could work. Am I crazy?
Re Milwaukee going to small lineups: they probably will have to try it at some point, but it takes away a lot of what they do well, because Bledsoe, Brown and Hill aren’t scaring anyone as shooters, and you can close out really hard on Hill and Brown, because they won’t burn you off the catch.

If Milwaukee has to go to those lineups, it’s a big win for Boston, just because of the massive talent differential it creates.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Giannis, Middleton, Brown, Bledsoe, Hill? That's an incredibly small lineup, but you have Giannis on Al and he can switch onto Kyrie 1:1. Middleton guards Morris, Brown guards Tatum, Bledsoe on Jaylen and Hill on Kyrie. The C's should dominate on the boards and Al would abuse their guards if Giannis switched onto Kyrie, but I think this could work. Am I crazy?
I don't think you are crazy; I'm surprised Budenholzer didn't even try it once as according to NBA.com, every lineup that MIL played for 1 minute or more had one or more of Lopex, Mirotic, or Illyasova.

I can understand Budenholzer wondering who Bledsoe, Brown, and Middleton are going to guard, but that lineup can't be any worse (on paper) than the Lopez, Mirotic, Illaysova, Middleton, and Hill lineup that ended up being the highest NRtg lineup for MIL yesterday (3 minutes at +216.7, but mostly due IMO to the flukey 3P shooting during those 3 minutes).
 

lovegtm

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The pick n roll, pick n pop, between Kyrie and Horford is so damn good. I am not sure how you stop that short of exposing yourself to an open corner three by doubling Kyrie immediately.
With a healthy Hayward, it becomes even harder to defend. This is an awful matchup for the Bucks defense.
 

lovegtm

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I don't think you are crazy; I'm surprised Budenholzer didn't even try it once as according to NBA.com, every lineup that MIL played for 1 minute or more had one or more of Lopex, Mirotic, or Illyasova.

I can understand Budenholzer wondering who Bledsoe, Brown, and Middleton are going to guard, but that lineup can't be any worse (on paper) than the Lopez, Mirotic, Illaysova, Middleton, and Hill lineup that ended up being the highest NRtg lineup for MIL yesterday (3 minutes at +216.7, but mostly due IMO to the flukey 3P shooting during those 3 minutes).
We give Brad shit for tinkering in the regular season, and everyone drooled over MIL’s net rating in the regular season, but now we’re seeing the value of experimentation at the expense of wins. Brad knows what options he has, Bud doesn’t, and the homecourt they worked 82 games for is gone now.