Road to the One Seed Stops at Number Two

[bakahump]

Ok Its about time...

Patriots own a 2 game and 3 Game(....assuming a loss for someone in the Den/Cin game) over the next 2 teams.

Tie Breakers are
1 Head to head- Win over Denver and Cin loss to Denver later would be best case. We do not play Cinci.
2. Division record- Is that right? Or would this only come into play if tied with another team in the East and we were trying to determine Division Champ? If not its a push.
3.Common Games-Steelers are a big help....if they can beat Cin. Both have beat Buff. Texans and Denver (obv) are big games.
4.Conf Record- Right now a adv Pats....because of Cin loss to Texans. Arizona does not help
5. Strength of Victory
6. Strength of Sched
...
12. Coin Flip- If we get this far you know we win the flip.


Seriously can someone with better math skills then myself give a better breakdown?

The only keys I can take away are
1.. Denver game is huge
2. Texan Game is huge.
3. Dont get more then 2 losses.
4. Hope for a Denver win against Cinnci.

Which is pretty much what we knew.

 

[Stitch01]

These are the relevant tiebreakers, actually easier (but not as favorable) as I thought. I screwed up because I didn't change my thinking based on the Bengals loss being to Arizona and the Pats knocking off the NYG.

Pats very likely lose tiebreaker with Bengals by conference record now unless they lose to the Eagles at home. Pats/Denver tiebreaker determined this weekend. Denver/Bengals tiebreaker determined by that head to head game. Denver is the only team that can win a three way or be eliminated from a three way based on head to head. If Denver doesn't sweep the Bengals and Pats and the Pats don't lose to Philly, Bengals will win all three team tiebreakers by conference record (Denver already won all of their non-conference games) and Pats/Denver matchup determines 2nd. If Denver does sweep they'll win and the Bengals will beat the Pats by conference record.

If Pats lose to the Eagles

They will beat the Bengals in a tiebreak if they go even or better against Denver and Texans than Bengals go against Steelers and Broncos.

If Bengals go one game better in that subset, it comes down to SOV which was super close when I calculated it a couple weeks ago (Bengals/Pats were a game apart) but Im guessing moving against the Pats as of late.

Cliffs: Beat Denver or lose all tiebreaks

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

 

[JohnnyK]

Pats very likely lose tiebreaker with Bengals by conference record now unless they lose to the Eagles at home.

I assume you mean a different team here because the Eagles shouldn't have any bearing on the conference record. I am I missing something here?

 

[Dan Murfman]

I assume you mean a different team here because the Eagles shouldn't have any bearing on the conference record. I am I missing something here?

If they tie with Cincy they will lose tiebreaker to them unless one of the losses is to Philly because Cincy will have a better conference record. Though Cincy does still have 2 NFC games left.

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah, we can backsolve for who has the better conference record if we know who has the worse non-conference record. Vs NFC Denver is 4-0, Pats are 3-0, Bengals are 1-1. So we can already figure out that unless the Pats lose to the Eagles, the Bengals will have the worst non-conference record so they'll have to have the best conference record (in the event the teams end up tied) and win tiebreak.

Same will hold if the Pats lose to Philly but the Bengals also lose to either the Rams or (lol) 49ers.

 

[JohnnyK]

Makes sense, thanks.

 

[bsj]

I don't care if we are 14-0 or not, if we have clinched everything, given the way this season has gone with injuries, I would have no problem with the Patriots playing the backups heavily in the final 2 games. I want of of Suh trying to take out Brady's knee in a meaningless game.

 

[snowmanny]

The difference in trophy probability between being the 2 seed instead of the 3 seed is far larger than the difference gained by being number 1 instead of number 2. It's really the one less game and the one more week of rest that is most important, which is why this Sunday's game means so much.

 

[Rasputin]

Now that the Pats second loss has come against Philly, isn't it a simple matter of wanting Cincy to beat Denver, thus bumping Denver to third, maintaining a tie in overall record and conference record with Cincy which sends it down to Strength of Victory where the Pats would likely have an advantage because Cincy has Cleveland on their schedule twice?

Or am I fundamentally misunderstanding Strength of Victory?

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Denver and Cincy both have to play Pitt, as well as a head to head against each other. Obviously at least one will have 3 losses and there's a decent chance one ends up with 3 and one ends up with 4. To say nothing of outlier losses like the Pats had tonight. If the Pats win out, they will have a bye and that is really all that matters.

 

[Stitch01]

Now that the Pats second loss has come against Philly, isn't it a simple matter of wanting Cincy to beat Denver, thus bumping Denver to third, maintaining a tie in overall record and conference record with Cincy which sends it down to Strength of Victory where the Pats would likely have an advantage because Cincy has Cleveland on their schedule twice?

Or am I fundamentally misunderstanding Strength of Victory?

In that scenario If the pats lose to Houston and bengals beat Pitt they lose tiebreak to cinn on common games unless they both go 1-3 and the bengals other loss is to the niners

I count a five game lead in SOV today but possible I'm adding wrong I'm not at a computer

 

[dcmissle]

Barring a tie, we are looking at at least one loss for Denver or Cincy. Stop there. Win out and we get a bye, which matters a lot.

Beyond that, I am placing a lot of hope on the Steelers. Denver has to play at Pitts, which is a big ask if Steelers are fighting for the post season. Cincy has to host Pitts, which strikes me as easier, not only because the game is at home for them, but also I think Cincy matches up better against Pitt than Denver does. But # 1 seed still possible for pats.

There may be a little wiggle room for us, but Pats can't count on it. Better win out.

 

[j44thor]

Too bad that Den-CIN game is a Monday night and NE is @ Jets the day before.
A loss vs. HOU and to the Jets which isn't that unlikely and the DEN-CIN game could be somewhat meaningless.

 

[Marciano490]

How many members on Denver and Cincy boards put down yesterday as a loss for us? It's obviously worth plotting out, but any given Sunday and whatnot. Seems every year there's a surprise loss or two mucking up these exercises.

 

[H78]

I just don't see the Patriots going better than 2-2 down the stretch unless Gronk comes back soon.

Tennessee and one of @ NYJ, @ MIA and @ HOU should be a win. I think they beat Tenn and Miami, but drop their games @ NYJ and @ HOU this weekend (if Gronk doesn't play).

I think this team finishes 12-4 and we need to hope Pitts takes care of Cinci or Denver and we win the #2 on a tiebreaker.

 

[amarshal2]

I just don't see the Patriots going better than 2-2 down the stretch unless Gronk comes back soon.

Tennessee and one of @ NYJ, @ MIA and @ HOU should be a win. I think they beat Tenn and Miami, but drop their games @ NYJ and @ HOU this weekend (if Gronk doesn't play).

I think this team finishes 12-4 and we need to hope Pitts takes care of Cinci or Denver and we win the #2 on a tiebreaker.

I think they go 4-0 if they need to. So there you go. We now have two unsubstantiated and likely worthless opinions posited in this thread.

If the team keeps playing as poorly as it has in all three phases they'll go 0-4. But what reason is there to believe that they are just going to keep being terrible at football? Yeah, the offense may continue to struggle but they are still a better team than everyone on the regular season schedule.

I guess what I'm saying is that, look fellas, it's the same thing we talked about in the Baltimore game. We just need everyone to do their job! We need the special teams units to make their blocks and cover their lanes. We need the defense to stop the run and cover their man. We need the players to block and catch on offense. There is no mystery here, fellas. It's trusting each other and everybody doing their job!

 

[burstnbloom]

Maybe I'm a little more bullish than I should be, but despite the consecutive losses, I'm not terribly worried. Yesterday was full of plays that we never see out of the Patriots. A punt block for a TD, a punt return for a TD and a pick 6 into double coverage all hurt them, but its rare that we see even one of those things on a weekly basis. We also all know what happened in Denver. I think Cincy loses in Denver and Denver loses in Pittsburgh. Maybe I'm just a hater but Denver just does not look that impressive to me. 17 points with a pick 6 against that Chargers team is not impressive. They looked pedestrian against the bears as well.

Cincy has the Steelers this week and consecutive west coast games at San Fran and the Broncos before closing against the Ravens.

Pats have a decent shot at the 1 seed because I think that they can limit the mistakes against their remaining opponents and win. The Jets and Miami games will likely have a fair amount of reinforcements back. Winning in Houston is big.

 

[k-factory]

The bye is obviously the most important thing whether its as a 1 or 2 seed.
The concern though is the loss of rhythm in game situations.
We have our fingers crossed that when everyone gets back, things go back to automatic with Brady and his receivers and the general offensive flow. Thats a tall order though and will be so post-bye especially against teams that are getting into a strong rhythm like Cinci and Pitt.
Would really like to see Gronk back for at least that last game in Miami if not the week before in NY.
And that first playoff game out of the bye is ideally against a team that is not a juggernaut.

So the 2 seed may be a better place to land.

We know the 4 seed will be the most flawed in the tournament.
KC likely holds on to the 5 seed because their schedule is cake going forward and they really have stepped up.
The 6 seed is going to be either the Jets or the Steelers. Jets have to play the Pats and @bills and the Steelers have to play @Cinci and vs. Den.

So hard to imagine the Jets making it and i couldn't see them surviving the 3-6 wild card matchup.
Conversely, if they manage to break through - which is my expectation - the Steelers will be a very tough out.
If Pats sink to the 3 seed this could be a pretty short run but assuming we land the 2 seed and Denver drops to 3, I'd imagine the Steelers roll over Denver and have a fair shot at upsetting the 1 seed in the next round.
I'd much rather Brady/Gronk/Edelman get into a rhythm against the 4-5 winner than the Steelers in their first playoff game.

 

[dynomite]

Last year after Week 13 the standings were:
- Pats, 9-3
- Broncos, 9-3
- Bengals, 8-3-1
- Colts, 8-4

I distinctly remember people were convinced the Broncos were going to win out and the Pats were in trouble, with a tough SNF game @SD upcoming.

Obviously this year isn't last year. But once again the Pats find themselves in a good position, from which they control their own destiny for a bye. At this point in the season that's just about all you can ask for.

And re: rhythm --
1) Everyone but Edelman is supposed to return within the next few weeks.
2) Edelman and Gronk sat out the entire preseason and didn't seem to struggle to find their timing with Brady when they returned. Having the bye, as you say, will be important in this regard and give them more opportunity to heal and practice.

Edit: And I've heard a few people mention that what's unusual about this is that the Pats are usually peaking now. Well... they lost in Week 13 in 2014 (@GB), and they lost in Weeks 11 (@CAR) and 15 in 2013 (@MIA), and they lost in Week 15 in 2012 (vsSF). So there's nothing all that unusual about them having a bad game in November and December in recent memory.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Obviously, if we go 3-0 we get the 1 seed. But we also now own the tiebreaker over Cincinnati on common games and CIN-DEN have yet to play, both of which are pretty big. So two situations are possible (assuming CIN-DEN does not end in a tie):

If CIN wins the h-2-h game Week 16:

2-1 gets us the #1 seed.
1-2 gets us the #3 seed unless either CIN or DEN lose another game.

If DEN wins the h-2-h game Week 16:

3-0 still necessary to get the #1 seed, unless DEN drops another game.
1-2 still gets us the #2 seed, as we'd win the tiebreaker with CIN at 12-4.

 

[nattysez]

If Brock can't beat OAK @DEN, I don't like his chances @PIT. I expect both Cincy and Denver to go 2-1 from here on out, giving the Pats some breathing room.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

If Denver loses next week, do we officially have a game of leeway?

 

[Marciano490]

How many members on Denver and Cincy boards put down yesterday as a loss for us? It's obviously worth plotting out, but any given Sunday and whatnot. Seems every year there's a surprise loss or two mucking up these exercises.

Yup.

 

[Stitch01]

What a perfect day of football. Hard to lose a bye at this point. Loss to Denver remains so frustrating they would be playing to lock up everything next week

 

[Remagellan]

This might be a year in which the top seed in either conference is not the blessing it normally is.

In the AFC if the Chiefs, the Jets, and the Steelers all win out, the Chiefs will be the five seed and play the AFC South champion while the Steelers would slip past the Jets as the sixth seed to face the Dalton-less Bengals team they just destroyed. Regardless of what happens in the other game, the Steelers would likely be the team awaiting the top seed in the AFC in the divisional round.

In the NFC the situation may be even worse as the Seahawks as the fifth seed would play whichever feckless team emerges as the NFC East "champion", while the sixth seeded Vikings would draw either the Packers, who beat them 30-13, or the Cardinals, who beat them 23-20. If the Seahawks win and the Vikings go down in that round as would be expected, Carolina's reward for an undefeated regular season (should it win out) would be to face a Seahawks team that is playing like the best team in football right now.

Still, get the bye, get healthy, and worry about match-ups later because beating good teams is just part of becoming a champion.

 

[BaseballJones]

Yep. Get the bye, get HFA, get healthy, and the Pats, if they play like they should, will be just fine. It's never, ever easy getting to, or winning, a Super Bowl. Just gotta put yourself in the best position possible. #1 seed is that.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I believe Pats clinched the tiebreak with Cincy yesterday because they they will finish with a better common opponents record, which is what it would come down to, so we can pretty much breathe easy that the Pats have at least a bye at this point. If Pitt beats Denver next week and the Pats win against Tennessee, the one seed odds have to be around 90+%.

 

[jsinger121]

This might be a year in which the top seed in either conference is not the blessing it normally is.

In the AFC if the Chiefs, the Jets, and the Steelers all win out, the Chiefs will be the five seed and play the AFC South champion while the Steelers would slip past the Jets as the sixth seed to face the Dalton-less Bengals team they just destroyed. Regardless of what happens in the other game, the Steelers would likely be the team awaiting the top seed in the AFC in the divisional round.

In the NFC the situation may be even worse as the Seahawks as the fifth seed would play whichever feckless team emerges as the NFC East "champion", while the sixth seeded Vikings would draw either the Packers, who beat them 30-13, or the Cardinals, who beat them 23-20. If the Seahawks win and the Vikings go down in that round as would be expected, Carolina's reward for an undefeated regular season (should it win out) would be to face a Seahawks team that is playing like the best team in football right now.

Still, get the bye, get healthy, and worry about match-ups later because beating good teams is just part of becoming a champion.

I think I'd like the 2 seed this year and here's why. KC is likely going to go 3-0 down the stretch with wins @Ravens, vs. Browns and vs. Raiders. That's 11-5 and locked into the 5. The Jets don't have an easy road. They have @Cowboys, vs. Patriots and @bills to close out the year. They could go either 2-1, 1-2 or 0-3 in that stretch. Pittsburgh should run the table vs. Broncos, @Ravens and @ Browns to take the #6 seed. Pittsburgh will likely crush Cincinnati on the road setting up a divisional date with New England. I'd rather the #2 seed play the Chiefs and then have the Steelers crush Denver in Denver to come here.

 

[tims4wins]

I think I'd like the 2 seed this year and here's why. KC is likely going to go 3-0 down the stretch with wins @Ravens, vs. Browns and vs. Raiders. That's 11-5 and locked into the 5. The Jets don't have an easy road. They have @Cowboys, vs. Patriots and @bills to close out the year. They could go either 2-1, 1-2 or 0-3 in that stretch. Pittsburgh should run the table vs. Broncos, @Ravens and @ Browns to take the #6 seed. Pittsburgh will likely crush Cincinnati on the road setting up a divisional date with New England. I'd rather the #2 seed play the Chiefs and then have the Steelers crush Denver in Denver to come here.

Even allowing for opponent I would MUCH rather have the 1 seed and face Pitt at home than have the 2 seed and face KC at home. Just no comparison IMO.

Edit: if the Steelers are that good the Pats are gonna have to play them regardless anyway. Would love for them to somehow beat Denver next weekend then miss the playoffs but seems unlikely.

 

[BaseballJones]

I'm with tims4wins. Neither KC nor Pittsburgh would be an easy game, for sure. But I'd rather play Pittsburgh than KC. It's interesting. The #2 and #3 seeded teams are Cincy and Denver, but I think the #5, #6, and #7 teams (KC, NYJ, and Pit) are all tougher at the moment.

 

[tims4wins]

I'm with tims4wins. Neither KC nor Pittsburgh would be an easy game, for sure. But I'd rather play Pittsburgh than KC. It's interesting. The #2 and #3 seeded teams are Cincy and Denver, but I think the #5, #6, and #7 teams (KC, NYJ, and Pit) are all tougher at the moment.

Amazing how things can change in 24 hours

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Is the AFC North still realistically in play? Obviously the Steelers can win it by going 3-0 if the Bengals go 0-3 but what if the Steelers win out and then the Bengals lose to Denver and Baltimore. It looks to me like conference and division would be all tied up.

I agree with the point above about a two seed possibly being have a silver lining, especially in the NFC. If the Cardinals beat the Packers next week, they may just be fine resting up and putting Carson Palmer in bubble wrap. Panthers would likely need to beat Seattle and Arizona to get to the Super Bowl, while Arizona likely only has to beat one of those two. Also, Carolina is tough anywhere, but I don't think of them having a massive HFA, though I could have some bias there.

 

[JimD]

Ruthlessly take care of business this week in the home finale. Beat the Jets in week 16 and knock them out of the playoffs. Keep Brady, Gronk, Edelman, etc. away from Ndamukong Suh in week 17 and rest up for the title defense. Play whoever is on the schedule in Foxboro or (hopefully) Santa Clara. I get the desire to let Denver or whoever deal with the Steelers on the divisional weekend but I'd rather the Pats lock down homefield advantage than risk having to make a return trip to the thin air in Denver.

 

[BernieRicoBoomer]

I know the Pittsburgh offense has been playing well and I certainly wouldn't look past them. However, I don't get the fear of facing them in the playoffs we seem to have every year. Brady is 8-2 against them outscoring them 311 to 228 in those games. It would be nice to face the Browns, but obviously that's not happening. The one seed is the goal period.

 

[JimD]

Is the AFC North still realistically in play? Obviously the Steelers can win it by going 3-0 if the Bengals go 0-3 but what if the Steelers win out and then the Bengals lose to Denver and Baltimore. It looks to me like conference and division would be all tied up.

According to the ESPN Playoff Machine, under this scenario the Steelers would win the division and the Bengals would drop to the top wild-card spot.

 

[BaseballJones]

Amazing how things can change in 24 hours

You got that right. 24 hours ago, the Pats were reeling, Gronk was iffy, Denver was surging, and Cincy looked great. Then Dalton goes down, Cincy gets rolled, Denver loses a shocker, Gronk looks great, and the Pats crush Houston, and suddenly are the #1 seed again, with Tennessee on the schedule next week.

Life in the NFL.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

According to the ESPN Playoff Machine, under this scenario the Steelers would win the division and the Bengals would drop to the top wild-card spot.

That's correct - the Bengals need a win over Denver or Baltimore or a Pittsburgh loss to clinch the division. A win next week in SF doesn't do it which makes the game practically meaningless since they still get a bye if they beat Denver and Baltimore.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

We want the one seed without a doubt. There are too many permutations of opponent matchup outcomes at this point to put much weight on that. And it's simply wrong to suggest that Pittsburgh is a substantially tougher matchup than KC or Denver. You can make an argument for tougher but these are small gradations.

 

[NYCSox]

If the Steelers can take out the Broncos next week, then you guys should be pretty much set. Unfortunately there almost certainly isn't enough time for the Steelers to catch the Bengals (thanks for your choke job Seattle) but I'll take my chances with them in a 3/6 game.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

If the Steelers can take out the Broncos next week, then you guys should be pretty much set. Unfortunately there almost certainly isn't enough time for the Steelers to catch the Bengals (thanks for your choke job Seattle) but I'll take my chances with them in a 3/6 game.

Even if the Bengals were 9-4 with a loss to Seattle, all they'd have to do is beat SF and Baltimore to win the division since they'd have a better division record. Your anger should be directed at Tomlin and Scobee since that's the game that could very well cost the Steelers the division.

 

[NYCSox]

Well yeah though that's still going to be a bit of a challenge with McCarron instead of Dalton.

And don't worry, I've burned Scobee in effigy a few times already.

 

[dynomite]

We want the one seed without a doubt. There are too many permutations of opponent matchup outcomes at this point to put much weight on that. And it's simply wrong to suggest that Pittsburgh is a substantially tougher matchup than KC or Denver. You can make an argument for tougher but these are small gradations.

Exactly. As the Dalton injury showed us yet again yesterday, and the Eagles proved last week, unpredictability reigns supreme.

So get the #1 seed, hope to be as healthy as possible, and go from there.

And as others said, it's the playoffs: everyone the Patriots will play is good (perhaps apart from the 2011 Tebow Broncos).

 

[tims4wins]

If Pittsburgh and KC win out - not all that unlikely at this point - then we are likely looking at:

1) NE
2) Cin/Den winner
3) Cin/Den loser
4) Indy/Hou
5) KC (H2H victory over Pitt)
6) Pitt

As others have stated, given the current state of things, I like the two road teams in the first round in that scenario.

I think others have mentioned it, but if Denver loses to Pittsburgh and Cincy while KC, Pittsburgh, and the Jets win out - they will MISS the playoffs. Not likely, but not totally far fetched.

 

[Dan Murfman]

If Pittsburgh and KC win out - not all that unlikely at this point - then we are likely looking at:

1) NE
2) Cin/Den winner
3) Cin/Den loser
4) Indy/Hou
5) KC (H2H victory over Pitt)
6) Pitt

As others have stated, given the current state of things, I like the two road teams in the first round in that scenario.

I think others have mentioned it, but if Denver loses to Pittsburgh and Cincy while KC, Pittsburgh, and the Jets win out - they will MISS the playoffs. Not likely, but not totally far fetched.

Same scenario but Denver beats Cincy then Pittsburgh would miss the playoffs.

 

[DJnVa]

Yeah, someone out of the Pit/KC/NYJ group is likely out, with a chance that DEN could also miss.

 

[tims4wins]

Pats can make it somewhat moot by going into the Meadowlands and stomping the Jets next week

 

[nattysez]

Pats can make it somewhat moot by going into the Meadowlands and stomping the Jets next week

That'll be tough given that the NYJ will be in Dallas next Sunday. Or are you advocating that the Pats ambush them during a practice?

 

[Dan Murfman]

That'll be tough given that the NYJ will be in Dallas next Sunday. Or are you advocating that the Pats ambush them during a practice?

Actually by Sunday the Jets should be back in New York/Jersey as the game is Saturday

 

[tims4wins]

That'll be tough given that the NYJ will be in Dallas next Sunday. Or are you advocating that the Pats ambush them during a practice?

Next week, as in, the week after this week. This week the Pats play the Titans; next week the Pats play in the Meadowlands. Semantics obviously.

 

[nattysez]

Actually by Sunday the Jets should be back in New York/Jersey as the game is Saturday

Touche.