Rick Porcello is the Ace We Deserve
- Thread starter Darnell's Son
- Start date
Porcello has been insanely good this year. Not uber-dominant, not a Kershaw. But incredibly consistent and just always....good.
Last 11 starts:
9.0 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 3 k
8.0 ip, 4 h, 3 r, 3 er, 1 bb, 8 k
8.0 ip, 7 h, 2 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 6 k
7.0 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 4 k
7.0 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 8 k
7.2 ip, 9 h, 3 r, 3 er, 0 bb, 8 k
7.0 ip, 6 h, 3 r, 3 er, 0 bb, 7 k
7.0 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 2 k
7.0 ip, 6 h, 2 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 7 k
8.0 ip, 4 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 6 k
9.0 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 7 k
TOT: 84.2 ip (7.2 per game), 56 h, 23 r, 23 er, 5 bb, 64 k, 2.44 era, 0.72 whip, 6.8 k/9
Look at that consistency.
In 31 starts, he's given up more than 4 earned runs just *ONCE*. He's only given up more than 4 runs (earned or unearned) three times. He has never given up more than 5 runs in any start.
He's basically been a 7 ip, 2-3 run per game machine.
Last 11 starts:
9.0 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 3 k
8.0 ip, 4 h, 3 r, 3 er, 1 bb, 8 k
8.0 ip, 7 h, 2 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 6 k
7.0 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 4 k
7.0 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 8 k
7.2 ip, 9 h, 3 r, 3 er, 0 bb, 8 k
7.0 ip, 6 h, 3 r, 3 er, 0 bb, 7 k
7.0 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 2 k
7.0 ip, 6 h, 2 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 7 k
8.0 ip, 4 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 6 k
9.0 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 7 k
TOT: 84.2 ip (7.2 per game), 56 h, 23 r, 23 er, 5 bb, 64 k, 2.44 era, 0.72 whip, 6.8 k/9
Look at that consistency.
In 31 starts, he's given up more than 4 earned runs just *ONCE*. He's only given up more than 4 runs (earned or unearned) three times. He has never given up more than 5 runs in any start.
He's basically been a 7 ip, 2-3 run per game machine.
I totally agree with what you said, but wanted to expand on the bolded game. So the people who believe in crediting pitchers for wins would also have to criticize Porcello for losing 1-0, right? I think that's how it works.
I suppose. I think most people here would argue that wins is not a terribly good way to evaluate the quality of a pitcher, however. You'll note that I didn't mention it at all when giving his game log.
No they dont. Most people here can distinguish between and among getting credit for the win (or the loss or neither) and pitching well (or not). Only unemployed Joe Morgan would criticize a starting pitcher for being on the short end of a 1-0 loss.
Hey don't criticize the Pride of Walpole MA!! In all honesty he was one of the better Sox managers of the past 50 years...Pssst..oh. That Joe Morgan...nevermind...LMAO
There's a pretty big range from saying "the Cy Young should be based solely on xFIP and WAR" and saying "Wins matter most of all". As a fan, I'm happy if Porcello gets the Cy Young even if he's 2nd or 3rd among AL pitchers in WAR.
I don't care much for wins, but I don't mind quality starts. Porcello is, of course, tied for the lead there. He also has the third most complete games behind only Sale, and tied with Kluber. He's also tied for IP with Sale at 210.2, behind Price by one inning for second most. He has the best K/BB, which is driven by having the second best walk rate in the AL.He's tops in ERA- and 6th in FIP-, his WHIP is best in the AL as well. He has the 7th most valuable fastball according to Fangraphs, the 2nd best changeup, and the 7th best slider, so his mix is really good. He has the best soft contact percentage among the contenders for the Cy Young, and if you like stats that try to capture performance relative to wins without going into WAR, Porcello has the best WPA/LI in the AL.
In short, there is a pretty good argument to make for Porcello without pointing to wins or wearing the homer hat.
Neither here nor there, but I saw today that Jake Odorizzi has 12 no decisions this year when giving up 2 or fewer runs. That's insane.
Wait, where are you getting that? According to FG his soft contact percentage is 16.5%, 36th out of 41 AL qualifiers.
Whoops. Had the rankings reversed. Even without that, however, it's still completely justifiable to vote for Porcello even without valuing wins as an individual statistic.
August Fagerstrom describes the evolution of Porcello's approach against LHers and how that's morphed him from a fringe CY candidate to a front-runner.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-continued-growth-of-rick-porcello-cy-young-candidate/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-continued-growth-of-rick-porcello-cy-young-candidate/
His conclusion?