Rick Porcello is the Ace We Deserve
- Thread starter Darnell's Son
- Start date
In the faint hopes of helping return this thread to something even remotely related to the topic, I will add my $.02 that Porcello is as much fun to watch right now as Derek Lowe on his really good nights, e.g. '04 ALCS g.7, where the ball is moving into the black from multiple directions all night. With an ERA+ of 144 right now, Porcello is well above his mark from any other year [though vintage D-Lowe, in his 21-8 season, was at 177]. Lowe was 29 that year. Porcello is only 27. Hope he can keep it up.
You know what's really remarkable? Look at his "Batted Ball" peripherals from 2015 and 2016. Walks are down some, as are HR/9, but he's basically the same guy.
There's of course one big difference
http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/league/al/sort/runSupportPerStart/type/expanded-2
(Sorted by run support)
He ranked something like 50th last year
His k/BB is much better this year. His FIP is -0.69, which is a lot smaller than the ERA differences but not nothing. But I hear what you're saying, that the difference isn't as extreme as it may seem. If nothing else, he has a steady, solid defense behind him and is pitching to the same competent catcher each time out, so the contextual improvements might make up for a lot of the difference.
One thing that hasn't been fully appreciated about Porcello's season this year is how much he's cut down on walks.
His career numbers were already pretty low (2.06 BB/9 for his career, inclusive of this year) but he's currently walking 1.35/9 this year. Among qualified starters, that's second in the league (behind Josh Tomlin).
His career numbers were already pretty low (2.06 BB/9 for his career, inclusive of this year) but he's currently walking 1.35/9 this year. Among qualified starters, that's second in the league (behind Josh Tomlin).
I respectfully disagree because at the time of the trade you only had one year of control.
Porcello easily could've said "F this, I want free agency." And then that trade would look really bad had Porcello walked away after the disaster of 2015.
So yes, I feel you can count them as 2 separate moves.
Yes and no. The trade was basically one year of Cespedes for "one year of Porcello" plus "first dibs on signing Porcello to a longer contract". The latter piece has some independent value on its own (particularly since Cespedes was very, very likely to test free agency either way), even if the team hadn't come to agreement on an extension.
To be fair, most thought the same about Porcello. especially since DD himself didn't think he could resign Porcello, and I have a hard time believing he wouldn't have taken this deal after Rick's 2014 year.
Porcello might have changed his mind after the trade and chosen to exit, but because it was an offseason trade Boston had sounded him out on an extension, which was signed that spring, allowing Boston to give him, in essence, a 5/92.5 deal while limiting their luxury tax exposure in the first year.
True.
My overall point was that at the time of the deal you couldn't count on more than 2015 from Porcello. That was all the team control left. Which is why I'd count the extension as a separate move. It wasn't a sign and trade. It was a trade, wait, wait wait, and sign.
Does it really matter? Cherington made the trade and signed the extension, if you want to break it down into two it was two great moves. He signed the extension before the season began, so it was 5/92.5 at that point, and to get a potential Cy Young winner on that sort of contract is so big that we can probably call it a yuuuuge win.
If Porcello left as a FA after last year would the trade have been a great move?
No chance.
5th in ERA
1st in WHIP
2nd in BB/9
2nd in IP
2nd in ERA+
1st K/BB (edit)
Even without the 20 wins he's meriting of CY consideration.
Porcello's been a workhorse and an absolute beast since the ASB. Averaging over 7.1 IP with a 2.44 ERA. .193/.219/528 slash line against, 0.789 WHIP.
1st in WHIP
2nd in BB/9
2nd in IP
2nd in ERA+
1st K/BB (edit)
Even without the 20 wins he's meriting of CY consideration.
Porcello's been a workhorse and an absolute beast since the ASB. Averaging over 7.1 IP with a 2.44 ERA. .193/.219/528 slash line against, 0.789 WHIP.
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Crazy that he got his first home loss last night, yet managed to make all those numbers above better. Damn Trumbo.
Although I couldn't agree more with the premise of your post, I just wanted to point out that Porcello is currently 26th in SO/9. Probably the only knock against his CYA candidacy. I think it's a 3 man race at this point.
Except that they began negotiating the extension at the time of the trade and it was signed before the season ever started, so there was literally no chance of him leaving. It's a fantastic move no matter how you try to slang it.
After the trade was completed.
Hence it being 2 separate moves. You only were guaranteed 1 year of control over Porcello.
I think he's listing BA/OBP/SLG. I'm which case I'm not sure why that couldn't be right.
Because that would mean that opposing hitters had a Sammy Sosa-esque .335 ISO against him. That's a BA/OBP/OPS line. I wish people would stop doing that.
Of course they're 2 different moves, but it's silly to consider them separately when evaluating Ben. If your point was simply that the trade only guaranteed a year that turned out poorly, fine. But you were saying this as a way of making the trade a bad decision by Ben, and it wasn't. You either
1) consider the whole context, in which case the extension is relevant because the trade made it possible, or
2) consider the decision making without regard to its consequences, in which case the 2015 results matter less than the fact that Ben thought he was getting a good pitcher, and we have solid evidence that he was right to think that.
Porcello's current contract is completely preposterous without the trade and the resulting pre-season extension.
Of course the 2 are separate legal transactions, but that doesn't mean they should be considered in isolation of one another as decisions any more than signing 12 good DHs who are all very bad at fielding for next year would make sense, or signing 20 relief pitcher free agents to contracts that would each individually be reasonable. Context matters and decisions affect each other.
That's on me, I flipped the columns in my head by mistake. Fully intended to post BA/OBP/SLG. Apologies
So an 89 pitch complete game on the road against a team they're battling for 1st place in the division--did Porcello nearly clinch the Cy Young tonight? I might be missing someone, but (if he holds on) would he be the first Sox starter since 2002 (Lowe and Pedro) with a sub-1.00 WHIP?
BBWAA Cy Young voting procedure: Hey, who had the most wins? Okay, sounds good to me. Where's the free food?
Sorry to be cranky about it.
He had a 70 ERA- (T1st in the AL) going into tonight, so he should be all alone in 1st now. And he'll widen his MLB lead in K/BB with a 7K/0BB performance.
I think it's reaching the point where he's close enough to the other guys in most of the rate stats that even a lot of saber-conscious voters will feel like it's reasonable to reward the 20 games.
He's a perfectly good candidate for CY in a year where nobody has really separated themselves. It's not like the great Colon/Santana snubbing of 2005.
I don't think we're at the point yet where CY becomes the xFIP and K/9 award. Nor should it be, IMO. Price is a sabermetric darling and I don't think I could tell you that he's had a better season than Price though WAR would disagree. The complete improbability of Porcello's 2016 is all kinds of awesome.
Bonus "what-writers-love" points for the huge career rebound, wins, clutch outings, etc. It's a great redemption story on a personal and team level.
I don't think we're at the point yet where CY becomes the xFIP and K/9 award. Nor should it be, IMO. Price is a sabermetric darling and I don't think I could tell you that he's had a better season than Price though WAR would disagree. The complete improbability of Porcello's 2016 is all kinds of awesome.
Bonus "what-writers-love" points for the huge career rebound, wins, clutch outings, etc. It's a great redemption story on a personal and team level.
FIP and xFIP are nice starting points and certainly better than ERA, but they aren't perfect. They don't take into account a pitcher's batted ball profile. I'm not sure if Porcello's is better than Kluber's but I recall Porcello having a pretty high percentage of popups and one of the lower line drive rates.
It's a interesting race for CY. I saw that Britton's ERA is like 0.15 since May 5. A case can be made for Rick based on the WAR, workload of a SP, but a case can be made that the leverage that Britton faces in each appearance makes the closer just as important. His season is reminiscent of vintage K-Rod and roided up Gagne. Maybe he'll blow a save vs the Sox this week to make the decision easier!
It's 0.18. He's only given up runs in three of 53 outings in that time. In addition, Britton has faced 196 batters with a slash line of.156 / .226 ./ 196 for a .421 OPS against and a BABIP of .224. One of the greatest closer seasons ever, if not the greatest.
I think it has to take a back seat to Koji's 2013 (.130/.163/.237, BABIP .189). But any season that can be mentioned in the same breath as Koji's without absurdity is pretty fecking amazing.
BTW, just three relievers have had seasons with at least 50 IP and an OPS allowed lower than Koji's .400 in 2013. Can you guess who/when they were without looking?
Eck 1990 .397, Gagne 2003 .374, Kimbrel 2012 .358
Sox fans would have been perfectly happy of a Price-Porcello 1-2 punch where they were:
21-4, 3.08 era, 210.2 ip, 0.98 whip
16-8, 3.91 era, 211.2 ip, 1.18 whip
It's just that we thought they'd be in reverse order of how it's turned out.
21-4, 3.08 era, 210.2 ip, 0.98 whip
16-8, 3.91 era, 211.2 ip, 1.18 whip
It's just that we thought they'd be in reverse order of how it's turned out.
Something interesting from the Joe Sheehan newsletter I subscribe to (this is like 10% of the entire email)
I hope to god not, since Porcello's numbers in those categories were both better last year going into last night's start.
Porcello Face is more like him calling Machado an idiot last night. So I don't think we have to worry here.Just as long as he doesn't develop his equivalent of the 'Derek Lowe face'.
Derek Lowe was pretty good at starting shit with the Orioles, as some of us may recall...
Is Comeback Player of the Year still a thing? Because if so, the little pork chop has a strong claim. Though Hanley might steal a few votes.
I guess Pedro has a bigger effect in his role as Special Adviser than I had thought. In 2000, he had 42 walks and 14 HBP.
