Rework JD Martinez contract?

rework JD Martinez’s contract so that it erases his opt outs?


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soxhop411

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during the Sox/yankee series Buster Olney mentioned that he has heard people (I assume around mlb) suggest that Boras and the Sox should sit down and rework JD Martinez’s contract in a way that rips up the post 2019 opt out and creates in essence a new contract that would take affect post 2019.

Would you do it?
 

Hank Scorpio

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After watching him the past three months, If I had the opportunity to rip up his opt-outs and keep everything else the same (5/110), I'd do it in a heartbeat. But there's no reason for him to agree to that. In order to rework his contract in such a manner, the Red Sox would either have to increase his annual salary, or offer him years six and seven (at least), at guaranteed money.

Not really sure what Onley was driving at. It makes a ton of sense for the Red Sox to want to have him beyond 2019, but little sense for JD to give up his opt outs unless the Red Sox are prepared to offer him a sweetheart deal.
 

NDame616

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JDM is a top 5 MVP caliber player right now. I'm sure he would LOVE to rip up the last 4 years of his contract......for a new contract of about 6/$180M
 

Koufax

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Yes, a thousand time yes. Pay the man what he deserves and keep him long term. He is not only a phenomenal hitter, he's a passable fielder and, by all appearances, a great teammate.
 

Murby

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No. He’s only been this for last half of the year last season & this first half of this season. I would see if he can keep it going for another year before I even approached him.

Either way it’s going to cost a fortune. No sense in doing it now.
 

koufax32

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No. He’s only been this for last half of the year last season & this first half of this season. I would see if he can keep it going for another year before I even approached him.

Either way it’s going to cost a fortune. No sense in doing it now.
The Adrian Gonzalez Corollary, if you will

Would he do it in exchange for an extra year added on at, say $30m?
 

NDame616

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if he finishes this year as a top 3ish MVP candidate, what would he get a a free agent?
 

MikeM

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Rework it to what, the money he should/would of got in the event the market didn't essentially crash last off season? It's for this year and next year that you mostly would of done that in the first place anyway.

Generally speaking, people get too caught up in the happy moments and an accompanying need to be able to project that as far forward as possible. Similar to Chris Sale the Sox scored huge on an elite in-their-prime talent, and both are most likely better players/values right now then they are going to be for an extended period of time after their current guaranteed contracts are up. That's just the standard and sad post 30yo career reality we've seen come and go a thousand times before.

The roses in front of you now smell the sweetest. Enjoy them.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I would imagine Boras would demand what he presently intends to seek on the open market after 2019 plus next year’s $25 million. And he would base those numbers on a 1.050 OPS 50 HR player. So whatever massive number Boras imagines Boras is imagining at the end of 2019 based on JD’s current production — let’s say 5/200 or whatever Boras is thinking — that’s what the ask would be right now plus 2019’s $25 million. So, 6/225 or something.

Why would Boras do anything less at this point? He already has another $85 million due under the current contract even for injury or regression if he wants it, which is a great insurance policy. He’s hardly going to let the best slugger in baseball sign a $20 something million per year deal right now. If the Sox offered something that would make everyone here sad — say 6/150 — I bet Boras would laugh right now.

He hold all the cards. All the Sox can do is let it play out for a while.
 

E5 Yaz

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Only if we can rip it up again next season to rework it for less if he has a bad year
 

sheamonu

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He's on a shorter term contract on the supposition that it would result in a highly incentivized player who would perform well beyond the present value in the hope of a big payday. That is working out just fine. If you extend now it will remove the incentive and leave you with a Pujols situation - a guy who even when he plays well has every sentence about him end with the suffix "yeah, but that contract". Be patient, wait 14-15 months and if the experience is as good for him (and the club) as it appears to be right now you'll still have the inside track should you wish to re-sign him.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Why would we do that? He's not going to get more on the open market. People knew what he was this off season.
 

In my lifetime

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One positive aspect is that if JDM keeps hitting like this, then decides to opt out; while Price decides not to opt out this year perhaps we will never again hear about how player options are beneficial for the team.
 

judyb

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But they can end up that way by accident, if the player opts out gets a better contract with a new team and then declines into someone they wouldn't have wanted to pay the rest of the original contract to, but that isn't a real team benefit, it's just luck, because if the player appeared to be worth that much to his new team, the original team probably could have gotten something of value by trading him to them if he didn't have the opt out. The only real benefit of player opt outs to the team is that offering them might be enough to get the player to accept a lesser deal than he would without them.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Yeah I have no idea why the Sox would do that now - talk about “buying high.”

I am sure there will be discussions about reworking his contract, but those will come next year after we’ve seen at least one full year of him, have a better sense of injuries, needs/costs going forward, etc. His opt-outs aren’t really something the team needs to worry about at the present moment.
 

Reverend

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I would imagine Boras would demand what he presently intends to seek on the open market after 2019 plus next year’s $25 million. And he would base those numbers on a 1.050 OPS 50 HR player. So whatever massive number Boras imagines Boras is imagining at the end of 2019 based on JD’s current production — let’s say 5/200 or whatever Boras is thinking — that’s what the ask would be right now plus 2019’s $25 million. So, 6/225 or something.

Why would Boras do anything less at this point? He already has another $85 million due under the current contract even for injury or regression if he wants it, which is a great insurance policy. He’s hardly going to let the best slugger in baseball sign a $20 something million per year deal right now. If the Sox offered something that would make everyone here sad — say 6/150 — I bet Boras would laugh right now.

He hold all the cards. All the Sox can do is let it play out for a while.
Here are the most relevant points of your post - all very good ones.
Yep. And this may even understate it because we're thinking mostly micro here and looking at JDM.

Given how weird last year's market was and how that underscores the uncertainty of the next one which will be very different in terms of FA supply in addition to the new market forces...

Nobody really knows what those options which Boras got for JDM are really worth, so it's not clear what it would cost to buy them back for the Red Sox.

Remember when people thought Boras fucked up? And now it looks like he has all the cards for his guy?

Reminds me of this:

 

Buzzkill Pauley

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I would think JD probably likes what he has. In order to rip it up, the Sox are going to have to pay bigly. Just let it ride.
Yeah. His bat is basically exactly what this team has been trying to recapture since Manny. Beltre gave the team one year, Youk gave the team a few, Ortiz’s awesomeness covered over some of the gap, and the Sox sucked for the few years he couldn’t. Hanley, sadly, wasn’t a long-term answer. So it’d be nice if JDM was.

But the contract’s been signed, so to me it’s just a matter of enjoying the next 1.5 years, and hope they don’t have too much dead money to re-sign him after he opts out.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Yeah I have no idea why the Sox would do that now - talk about “buying high.”
Yup. If the Sox reworked his contract now to remove the opt-outs, they'd have to guarantee him, what? -- at least 7 years at his current AAV, so something like 7/160 at a minimum, right? -- and if that was a bad idea in January, nothing that has happened since makes it any less of a bad idea. The reasons not to do a contract like that never hinged on skepticism about his 2018 performance.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yup. If the Sox reworked his contract now to remove the opt-outs, they'd have to guarantee him, what? -- at least 7 years at his current AAV, so something like 7/160 at a minimum, right? -- and if that was a bad idea in January, nothing that has happened since makes it any less of a bad idea. The reasons not to do a contract like that never hinged on skepticism about his 2018 performance.
At what point would you guarantee him? If the sox could give him an extra $20 mil over the life of the contract to remove the opt out clauses, would you? That would make the deal 5/130 or 4/110 depending on how they determine contract value. That's 26.5 mil or 28.5 mil against the cap.

I doubt his value on the open market today is higher than it was in the off season and I really doubt it will be higher after the 2019 season, regardless of what he does between now and then. He'll be 2 years older and even more of a DH. Granted at that time, his contract will be 3/60. He might be able to get a 4 year deal with more guaranteed money and a similar annual rate.
 

soxeast

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No.
As someone else said on here-- you talk about "buying high?" This is the definition of it.

IMO there was never a question of JDM doing well in 2018. While he is doing better than thought he has been regarded as a stud bat amongst the best in baseball.
 

sean1562

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I am going to enjoy the two year JDM experience while it lasts. When he opts out, use some of that money to extend Betts or resign Xander
 

Plympton91

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getting JD on essentially a 2 year $22 million a year AAV contract was an absolute coup for a team whose window of opportunity was 2 years. This was a great signing for that purpose. If he has another great season next year and opts our, then the Red Sox can collect a compensation pick to help with rebuilding (or do they not get that anymore if they’re over the lux tax threshold?).

Another reason not to reopen and pay top dollar for a longer deal is that he’s been as bad as advertised in the outfield. Two more years along it will be even clearer that he’s a DH only and that will again limit his market and the AAV well-run teams will be willing to pay. It could even play out the same was as this off-season. After a long and somewhat acrimonious search, he comes back as the Sox DH on a reasonable deal for a great DH.
 

Van Everyman

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Also, if he is amazing next year and opts out, who’s to say that the Sox don’t just re-up him for another few years, closer to the value he was expected to fetch (but didn’t) last off-season?

Given their other needs, other than “We might lose him!?!?!” I just don’t see any reason to engage this discussion now. Unless you are Scott Boras.
 

In my lifetime

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getting JD on essentially a 2 year $22 million a year AAV contract was an absolute coup for a team whose window of opportunity was 2 years. This was a great signing for that purpose. If he has another great season next year and opts our, then the Red Sox can collect a compensation pick to help with rebuilding (or do they not get that anymore if they’re over the lux tax threshold?).

That is exactly the way to look at it (except it is 23.75 for the 1st 3 yrs, before dropping to 19.375)
Great 2 year deal for the RS (as long as no severe injury/negative change in the next 18 months).
Given the frequency of terrible RS free agent contracts, this one is currently very favorable.
And what team wouldn't rather have JDM at age 30 and 31, then a significantly more expensive JDM at age 32 - 35 (and likely much beyond 35, when he signs another 5 yr deal at age 32).

So let's enjoy this run for the next 2 years and hope the cards fall into place for another championship.

One point that could use clarification: If JDM opts out after yr 2, I assume they go back and re-figure the luxury tax for the RS. His contract is now calculated at a 22.00 AAV, but would be re-figured at 23.75 if he opted out. Considering the RS are close to the next luxury tax penalty, would this push them over and how would the league deal with the draft pick penalty a year after the pick is made?
 
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MikeM

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Why would we do that? He's not going to get more on the open market. People knew what he was this off season.
Which in a majority of the speculation here was an overall downgrade to JBJ and his .726ops as a player, or a push at best.

Even with the market crash I still believe the surrounding interest plays out a lot different with more of a reason to believe the 2017 monster version of JDM is the one you'd of been buying, as opposed to somebody who would settle back in more in line with the 2014-2016 version. For a guy with questionable defense, that difference and elevating the bat up to a more realistic "MLB's best hitter not named Mike Trout" discussion/projection matters.

Still probably wasn't going to lead to $200m, but he'd certainly have done better then he did imo.
 

Sausage in Section 17

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No.

If The Sox think he'll leave, they have time to look at alternatives. They won't be able to replace his production by replacing one player, but perhaps they can fill the hole by improving elsewhere.

The Sox may have hit this just right, snagging a player truly in his prime. But he won't hit like this forever. There's still a chance we'll be overpaying at the end of THIS deal. Tearing it up and adding a few years would guarantee that outcome.
 

glennhoffmania

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No one ever believed that to be true
Oh there were (and probably still are) several people who believed that to be true, especially in the context of all the Yankee opt outs. Math, logic and economics didn't matter.

As for the question posed, there's no harm in asking Boras what he has in mind. Odds are it will be insane and Dave says thanks but no thanks, but why not at least approach Boras and start a conversation?
 

nvalvo

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I might ask what he wants in order to void the first opt-out, but I wouldn’t try to completely redo the deal.
 

chrisfont9

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I tend to think from the team's POV, and approaching Boras now is buying high. You might as well take the risk that the price drops, or at least doesn't increase, and pay the bill later when it comes due, not now in advance. It's not like he's scheduled to leave as a free agent. The Sox would still be his likely best fit, they'd just have to pay the new going rate.
 

Byrdbrain

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Bullshit. Pure, unadulterated bullshit.
Wow, I missed that little tidbit. People were concerned about paying 7/210 for JDM or whatever it was Boras was spouting. I don't think anyone here thought he would be a push for JBJ, how is that even a comparison? It was known JDM was essentially a DH who could play outfield when needed.
When the real numbers of the contract came out it seems to me pretty much everyone was on board.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Bullshit. Pure, unadulterated bullshit.
“Downgrade” and “push at best” is bullshit, but JBJ did put up a 5.3 win season in 2016, and a 2.2 win season in what many assumed/hoped was “a down year” in 2017.

JDM’s 2015 and 2016 were nearly identical to JBJs in WAR total (5.2 and 2.2), sandwiched between two 3.8 WAR seasons in 2014 and 2017.

Seems the safe bet for 2018 predictions would have been to guess JDM and JBJ at 3.8ish WAR each.
 

joe dokes

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Also, if he is amazing next year and opts out, who’s to say that the Sox don’t just re-up him for another few years, closer to the value he was expected to fetch (but didn’t) last off-season?

Given their other needs, other than “We might lose him!?!?!” I just don’t see any reason to engage this discussion now. Unless you are Scott Boras.
I'm also in the "so what?" camp. This will play out next off-season.

Its not like Boras will say to the Sox, "your post opt-out 4-year offer of 35 million a year* is the best one we have. However, because YOU the Red Sox, got him for the previous 2 years for less than he was actually 'worth,' you will have to pay a premium."

*a made up number. The actual number is irrelevant for the point being made.
 

Average Reds

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“Downgrade” and “push at best” is bullshit, but JBJ did put up a 5.3 win season in 2016, and a 2.2 win season in what many assumed/hoped was “a down year” in 2017.

JDM’s 2015 and 2016 were nearly identical to JBJs in WAR total (5.2 and 2.2), sandwiched between two 3.8 WAR seasons in 2014 and 2017.

Seems the safe bet for 2018 predictions would have been to guess JDM and JBJ at 3.8ish WAR each.
I don’t agree at all, but at least you make a case and are owning it.

The post I quoted claimed that the majority of posters speculated that JDM would be a “downgrade to JBJ and his .726 OPS” or a push at best.

I went back through the original JDM thread to do a quick check. And forget about a majority - I can’t find a single poster that made the claim the JDM would be a downgrade to JBJ.

Shameless bullshit needs to be called out.
 

MikeM

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I don’t agree at all, but at least you make a case and are owning it.

The post I quoted claimed that the majority of posters speculated that JDM would be a “downgrade to JBJ and his .726 OPS” or a push at best.

I went back through the original JDM thread to do a quick check. And forget about a majority - I can’t find a single poster that made the claim the JDM would be a downgrade to JBJ.

Shameless bullshit needs to be called out.
Sounds like you need to go back and re-read it again then, while also checking in on all the other threads where JDM Mania crossed over into dominating the off season discussion in one form or the other. Specifically keying in on anytime the possibility of signing JDM and then trading JBJ got brought up should help, of course.
 

MikeM

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“Downgrade” and “push at best” is bullshit, but JBJ did put up a 5.3 win season in 2016, and a 2.2 win season in what many assumed/hoped was “a down year” in 2017.

JDM’s 2015 and 2016 were nearly identical to JBJs in WAR total (5.2 and 2.2), sandwiched between two 3.8 WAR seasons in 2014 and 2017.

Seems the safe bet for 2018 predictions would have been to guess JDM and JBJ at 3.8ish WAR each.
Whether or not the projections were bullshit wasn't ultimately even the point of throwing out that reminder.

The fact this thread even has 21 yes votes a mere 3 months into the first season, and after ALL the overall discussion that took place while heavily focusing in on why JDM *didn't* deserve more then he ultimately got, is a classic example of people getting carried away in the moment imo.

I mean heck, he hasn't even made it through the year maintaining this current offensive pace, or even logged a full healthy season to help put some more of the legitimate surrounding durability question to bed. Plus, I'd venture every one of those 21 votes already got him in house at the price tag they initially spent the winter hoping for (because they sure as hell weren't here back then posting anything that would suggest different), and while secured for the 2 seasons that mattered the most.
 

Average Reds

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Sounds like you need to go back and re-read it again then, while also checking in on all the other threads where JDM Mania crossed over into dominating the off season discussion in one form or the other. Specifically keying in on anytime the possibility of signing JDM and then trading JBJ got brought up should help, of course.
Please provide a link to anything that shows that “a majority of the speculation here” projected JD Martinez to be a downgrade to “JBJ and his .726 OPS.”
 

nvalvo

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I don't think MikeM is wildly off base in his characterization of the conversation over the offseason, although he may be conflating JDM conversations with conversations about dealing Bradley for Kyle Schwarber.

I know I said that signing JDM for a large contract *as an outfielder* would be a mistake, because he’s nearly as bad a defender as he projected to be a good hitter. This is how he turned 120 games of a 141 wRC+ into 2.2 fWAR his last full season in Detroit.

Now, since those conversations, JDM signed for ~65% of what I expected him to get, and then stayed mostly healthy while posting his third consecutive half-season above a 1.000 OPS. In the meantime, Hanley has been DFA'd, opening up more DH PAs, and keeping Martinez out of the outfield, where he has been, as anticipated, awful. And Bradley didn't hit his weight for the first two months of the season, although he has a 93 wRC+ for the last month...
 

Average Reds

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He is absolutely wildly off.

I mean, I appreciate your effort, but he didn’t say anything about relative value given the expected contract. He said that a majority of the speculation was that JDM would perform at or under JBJ’s career OPS numbers.

I have no idea why he said it. And I can’t imagine why he doubled down, since literally no one expressed that. But there you have it.
 
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MikeM

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He said that a majority of the speculation was that JDM would perform at or under JBJ’s career OPS numbers.
But I didn't say that, and specifically framed it "as a player" instead of "as a hitter". Which of course I was obviously making a relative value reference as well. I mean c'mon. The amount of absurd twisting/stretching of comparative OPS that would have to be involved in making that claim should of been obvious enough imo.

I don't think MikeM is wildly off base in his characterization of the conversation over the offseason, although he may be conflating JDM conversations with conversations about dealing Bradley for Kyle Schwarber.
While the numerous back and forth discussion I had with you and some others on the topic of JDM's value over the winter did come to mind earlier (which I believe also crossed over into that specific speculative conversation at some point), it was really meant more as a quick/dirty way to point out where people seemed to be projecting JDM's win value to the team over the winter, the fragile nature of value itself with good-at-one-thing-and-bad-at-the-other types, and how that's all basically adding up as a whole now a mere couple months latter in relationship to the directly quoted "People knew what he was this off season".

Which again and going back to my initial point, I really don't recall anybody here seriously projecting JDM to more or less be the same level of hitter he was in 2017.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Which again and going back to my initial point, I really don't recall anybody here seriously projecting JDM to more or less be the same level of hitter he was in 2017.
Except for all the people that actually bothered to look up his stats for the past four years, where he's been every bit the hitter Stanton was, if not better. Given the move from the OF to (mostly) DH, plus the sizable past sample, it wasn't exactly an unreasonable stance to believe he'd be the same guy at the plate he was just last season.

Cut the hyperbole and you won't get called out.
 

MikeM

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Except for all the people that actually bothered to look up his stats for the past four years, where he's been every bit the hitter Stanton was, if not better. Given the move from the OF to (mostly) DH, plus the sizable past sample, it wasn't exactly an unreasonable stance to believe he'd be the same guy at the plate he was just last season.

Cut the hyperbole and you won't get called out.
I guess none of the "all those people" were posting their firm beliefs on that here then, but which again I guess gets lost or doesn't actually really even matter within your own need to take the shot there.

But on that note, I'm pretty sure nobody spent more time this winter specifically posting about how good of a comparative to the league and entering FA in general hitter JDM was then I did btw. Much less while routinely pointing out those 4 year splits. Although I can admit to expecting a reasonable amount of regression, given that was quite a jump up over the previous 3 years in 2017. Which I'm also fairly certain Average Reds himself will end up agreeing with on that very latter.
 

Byrdbrain

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Could you help a fella out and get me a link to all these discussions?
It should be easy enough since it was the majority opinion here.

I feel like I was around over the winter but I don't remember anything like that.
 

Average Reds

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Which again and going back to my initial point, I really don't recall anybody here seriously projecting JDM to more or less be the same level of hitter he was in 2017.
I'll drop it after this, because it's clear you are trying to dodge and weave your way out of your bullshit claim.

For all your efforts to shift the emphasis away from your claim to the more reasonable question of whether JDM is outperforming what most expected (note: he is) that isn't what you stated before. You claimed that "a majority of the speculation here" (A/K/A "the consensus opinion") was that JDM would be a downgrade to JBJ or a push at best. And you were the one who included his OPS, which is a fairly strong indicator that you were talking about, you know, OPS.

Look, I get it. We all use hyperbole. The problem for you here is that yours was complete bullshit, you are being called on it and you don't have even a single post to back it up. Because it's bullshit.
 
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