Revis the Patriot: Countdown to March 10th

Ed Hillel · Feb 20, 2015

Stevie1der said:
I'll bet 4 years for 70 would get it done.

I think it ends up 5 years to stretch out the cap hits of the hearty bonus Revis will be receiving. I know Belichick isn't usually about leaving dead money hits on caps down the road, but this team doesn't have a ton of wiggle room this season, and I do think he'll consider Brady's window when making his offer(s).

Stitch01 · Feb 20, 2015

dcmissle said:
He's not the first guy to say that everything else is stalled during Revis watch. Curran said it more than a week ago.

But one should not confuse non-action with action. Of course nothing is happening until this is resolved. It can't. We're looking at a high seven-figure, low eight-figure, cap swing depending on how this goes. Other than applying a franchise tag -- McCourty? -- or maybe cutting guys, the team is basically frozen until this is resolved. Which is why I think the Pats have a D-day not too far around the corner.

D Day isnt until a few days before that roster bonus is due. Just because they cant consummate other transactions without figuring out Revis doesnt mean they cant work on them.

NortheasternPJ · Feb 20, 2015

Ed Hillel said:
I think it ends up 5 years to stretch out the cap hits of the hearty bonus Revis will be receiving. I know Belichick isn't usually about leaving dead money hits on caps down the road, but this team doesn't have a ton of wiggle room this season, and I do think he'll consider Brady's window when making his offer(s).

Wooooooooosh!

Ed Hillel · Feb 20, 2015

Oh.

Well, 4/70 is a pretty reasonable Revis projection, as fate would have it.

MentalDisabldLst · Feb 20, 2015

Yeah, at first I thought it was a Lester joke and then I said "wait, $17.5 AAV seems high for right now, but in 4 years might seem like a bargain... that could actually be fair market value to wrap him up for a while - the rest of his prime".

Reverend · Feb 21, 2015

The Revis talk makes me wonder what a Super Bowl in the next two years would be worth to the team and, obviously, Belichick.

I mean, I'm a big believer that winning the Super Bowl is over-weighted with respect to evaluating how good people are; you need to be both good and lucky to win it all. But the day after this win, it came crashing in on me how different the Brady v. Manning debate looks now that Brady won this one. The whole "Couldn't win it again / doesn't really have the magic" debate was ground to dust instantly--that they've been to six Super Bowls and won four with the last on the back end makes the two losses almost padding on how amazing the career has been.

Winning another in the next two years puts their legacy into a whole new class unto itself, even beyond where they are now. It's unexplored territory.

LuckyBen · Feb 21, 2015

RedOctober3829 said:
Schefter on with Bob Socci on Patriots.com opines that the SB ring gives Revis more flexibility when it comes to looking for the biggest contract. He says it wouldn't surprise him for Revis to bolt New England for his one last big payday.

Watching all of the Super Bowl specials, Revis seemed like the happiest guy in the stadium. I just can't see him chasing the highest bidder again after the flops with the Jets and bucs.

Reverend · Feb 21, 2015

LuckyBen said:
Watching all of the Super Bowl specials, Revis seemed like the happiest guy in the stadium. I just can't see him chasing the highest bidder again after the flops with the Jets and bucs.

Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt · Feb 21, 2015

It wouldn't surprise me if he STAYS for the money.

steveluck7 · Feb 21, 2015

Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
It wouldn't surprise me if he STAYS for the money.

right? They can pick up his option or extend him at the upper level of the market and lower his cap # for this year.
They were talking about this on the radio today. this option year is a de facto franchise tag

southshoresoxfan · Feb 21, 2015

Just pay him 16 aav and hes back. 3-4 years whatever. Push the hit til Y2. Part w Vince. Redo Mayo and all of a sudden Pats will be 20 plus mil under cap.

I think McCourty ends up w a long term deal. Taking care of him is important IMO to culture of locker room etc. Little behind the scenes stuff.

steveluck7 · Feb 21, 2015

RedOctober3829 said:
He's not playing for the option year price. It's either restructure the current deal or cut him and hope he comes back after testing the market.

but they can pick it up and hold his rights. Not ideal from their perspective, to lock up $25 million in cap space but they could. Now, if he holds out, or otherwise raises a stink is another issue.

HomeRunBaker · Feb 22, 2015

Matt Young said:
Exactly what "actions" have the Patriots taken that make it clear they are all in? Nothing in the rest of the article supports that claim. Is he hinting at behind the scenes movements we are not privy to?

He's giving vague information with no specifics such as the $16m from two non-contenders. If you know who they are and that these offers actually existed (I don't) then name the damn teams in your piece! He has zero proof so named nobody which leads me to believe he has zero inside information about these negotiations other than the Pats are prioritizing Revis. Wow thanks for that hard hitting news.

TheoShmeo · Feb 22, 2015

RedOctober3829 said:
Schefter on with Bob Socci on Patriots.com opines that the SB ring gives Revis more flexibility when it comes to looking for the biggest contract. He says it wouldn't surprise him for Revis to bolt New England for his one last big payday.

Argument 1: Revis got a taste of winning a ring and playing with a QB like Brady, and will come back as long as the Pats make him the highest paid corner when he signs. They don't need to make the best possible offer or beat other would be contenders (as with tampering being rampant, Revis probably knows or has a good idea of what other teams would pay).

Argument 2: Now that Revis has his ring, he will be more likely to focus on his pay day. The bucket list has been checked. He has only one last big contract and it would be like him to say "I got my ring and now I want to maximize my earnings."

Both arguments are believable, I think.

That's why Revis returning is basically a 50-50 proposition in my view (though at times my heart convinces me that the odds of him returning are higher).

I think the Patriots would be crazy not to make him an offer that would make him the highest paid corner for 4 years with a lot of guaranteed money. With "a lot" being defined as equal or better than what other top corners have received.

theapportioner · Feb 22, 2015

I'd place the probability of an extension as somewhat higher than .5, given that 1) Revis did leave money at the table last year, when he could have gone to a non-contending team for a higher payday, 2) familiarity and presumed comfort with the incumbent team, 3) legacy, and 4) Kraft's desire to get this done.

I suspect that Kraft will be more involved in the selling/negotiations process than for other players, given his comment to Revis in the locker room post-game (in the video posted in the pics/vids thread). Not that he would step over Belichick's final say, but I'm guessing he has been/will be stroking Revis' ego throughout the post- Super Bowl period. These things might tip Revis' consideration of the marginal value of staying with the Patriots over say, the marginal value of an extra 2 million/year from a non-contending team, when the Pats are offering $16 million/year.

I mean, who knows really, but think this isn't like the Lester situation, where it was pretty clear the Red Sox had no interest in being anywhere near market value.

NortheasternPJ · Feb 22, 2015

I hope Kraft isn't involved at all outside of cutting the check BB requests. this is the exact scenario an owner should stay out of.

Ed Hillel · Feb 22, 2015

I don't buy the 16 million/year story. If there was a team willing to pay that, they would have been stupid not to throw a 7th Tampa's way for his prior contract. I'm sure he got better offers than the Pats', just don't buy to that extent.

kelpapa · Feb 22, 2015

NortheasternPJ said:
I hope Kraft isn't involved at all outside of cutting the check BB requests. this is the exact scenario an owner should stay out of.

I doubt he is involved aside from telling Revis how great he is, and telling him he hopes that he retires a Patriot.

I can't find the video, but I remember a clip of Seymour and Kraft discussing Seymour's legacy. I think Kraft was talking about Seymour retiring a Patriot, and how long he had been with the team. The two of them are on the field either before a preseason game or during practice. The next clip in the video is BB talking with Kraft, and BB is telling Kraft the trade of Seymour to the Raiders has been finalized, or is about to be. Kraft just sits back and accepts it, knowing BB is doing what's best for the team.

theapportioner · Feb 22, 2015

Probably right, although during the post-flight Ballghazi press conference, Kraft alluded to having had difficult conversations with Brady in the past. I assumed this might have alluded to contract negotiations, but maybe it had to do with Brookline schools or something.

Kevin Youkulele · Feb 24, 2015

theapportioner said:
Probably right, although during the post-flight Ballghazi press conference, Kraft alluded to having had difficult conversations with Brady in the past. I assumed this might have alluded to contract negotiations, but maybe it had to do with Brookline schools or something.

Kraft can't have gotten to where he is without having a clue about skillfully handling negotiations. I suspect he knows how he can help in situations like Brady's and now Revis's, and he knows what's best to leave to BB.

SeoulSoxFan · Feb 26, 2015

So $15.5m for the first three years guaranteed, with team options for years 4 & 5.

I'll sign up for that without a lot of hesitation. There's really no player on the defensive side who can not only play at the top of the position, but also makes McCourty & thus Arrington/Ryan/Browner and even Chung be more productive.

Ed Hillel · Feb 26, 2015

SeoulSoxFan said:
So $15.5m for the first three years guaranteed, with team options for years 4 & 5.

I'll sign up for that without a lot of hesitation. There's really no player on the defensive side who can not only play at the top of the position, but also makes McCourty & thus Arrington/Ryan/Browner and even Chung be more productive.

If Revis does stay, I think it will be something like 5/75/48 gtd., with a 15 million dollar signing bonus, and base salaries of 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14. The first three years of base salaries are guaranteed. That gives Revis 48 million guaranteed and allows the Patriots to take cap hits of 13, 14, and 15 million over the first three seasons, and 6 million of dead money left thereafter under a cap that may be up to 170 million at that point. If he's still playing at an elite level, they could even keep him. If Revis wants to make sure it's a 3 year deal (seems unlikely at this stage in his career), they could make the base salaries for the last two seasons something like 17 and 20, which makes it 5/85 for appearance, but with the same practical effect over the first 3 seasons. Either approach would save the Patriots 7 million against the cap this season. If there is a part of Revis that would take a little less to stay in New England, I would have to think he'd take that deal, and I'd be more than happy to see the Patriots give it to him.

MentalDisabldLst · Feb 26, 2015

Hold on, if you have a $10M base salary and $3M signing-bonus amortization, don't you still have the $5M in signing bonus coming from his current contract? You'd still have to pay that cap hit at some point, wouldn't you?

axx · Feb 26, 2015

MentalDisabldLst said:
Hold on, if you have a $10M base salary and $3M signing-bonus amortization, don't you still have the $5M in signing bonus coming from his current contract? You'd still have to pay that cap hit at some point, wouldn't you?

That is my understanding. I was just about to say something to that effect.

crystalline · Feb 26, 2015

If every player in the league was made an unrestricted FA tomorrow, how many would you offer more money than Revis? Let's say you have to sign everyone to a 3-year deal.

I don't watch enough of other teams to know, but I suspect others would throw out 2-4 names. Sherman? Haden? I get the impression Revis has slipped from his athletic peak. The Jordy Nelson play and the SB referee pick were touchdowns that Revis gave up.

I get that the Pats use him all over the field, not just deep so he's going to give up some catches on slants. And it seems like he has more on field intelligence than other guys, which might be valuable for the Pats and their defensive flexibility.

However, even though Revis is a great player, I'm not sure he's a safe bet to be the best CB in the league the next three years. If the Pats walk away, I'm not going to be crushed they didn't break the bank for him.

DJnVa · Feb 26, 2015

Not sure how Revis being more athletic would have stopped him from getting picked by the official in the Super Bowl--that seems an odd play to hold against him.

Van Everyman · Feb 26, 2015

Kam Chancellor would have hurdled him.

snowmanny · Feb 26, 2015

DrewDawg said:
Not sure how Revis being more athletic would have stopped him from getting picked by the official in the Super Bowl--that seems an odd play to hold against him.

Yeah, he gave up one catch to the Seahawks #1 guy for three yards. And sure the Nelson TD was a miss, but even with that holding the #4 receiver in the league to 2 catches on 6 targets for 53 yards...I'll take that. . Revis is really really really good.

Ed Hillel · Feb 26, 2015

MentalDisabldLst said:
Hold on, if you have a $10M base salary and $3M signing-bonus amortization, don't you still have the $5M in signing bonus coming from his current contract? You'd still have to pay that cap hit at some point, wouldn't you?

Brain fart, they'd save 7 million this year.

That Nelson TD was more McCourty than Revis. Revis gave up the first, but the YaC was on McCourty's poor angle. Holding a 3-yard TD on the pick play, those 3 yards being the only attempt on Revis the entire game against him? A bit harsh.

crystalline · Feb 26, 2015

Papelbon said:
Are you ignoring QBs in this? Because Luck, Wilson, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Romo, Rapistburger would easily surpass that number. A half dozen others would arguably at least come close if not beat it (Manning Jr, Flacco, Ryan, Rivers, Stafford and yeah, probably Cutler). If not for the 3 year stipulation Manning Sr obviously.

Oh yes, sorry if that wasn't clear. CBs only. The goal is to ask: independent of availability, which CB in the NFL is worth the most salary over the next three years?

I think Revis is clearly the best free agent CB. But people are talking about him like he's the best defensive player in the NFL.
Is he the best CB in the league now?

crystalline · Feb 26, 2015

Ed Hillel said:
That Nelson TD was more McCourty than Revis. Revis gave up the first, but the YaC was on McCourty's poor angle. Holding a 3-yard TD on the pick play, those 3 yards being the only attempt on Revis the entire game against him? A bit harsh.

Fair enough, one target for a TD on a ref pick. I think Sherman had only one or two targets that game too. Both teams were isolating bad DB/WR matchups.

I do think Revis is a great player, I just think the rending of garments going on about him possibly leaving is a bit overblown. Revis is probably not as athletic as he was at his peak and he's going to decline a bit in future which makes a contract with big guarantees a big risk. If the Pats fail to sign him I'll be upset, but I won't quit cheering if next years CBs are Browner, Ryan, Arrington, Butler + pickups.

braudimusprime · Feb 26, 2015

"Independent of availability" seems like an odd way to frame this discussion.

DJnVa · Feb 26, 2015

crystalline said:
Fair enough, one target for a TD on a ref pick. I think Sherman had only one or two targets that game too. Both teams were isolating bad DB/WR matchups.

But it's interesting to note that Seattle's #1 guy had a very quiet day--1 catch for 3 yards--because Revis followed him around. He took away that player all game.

Because Sherman plays to a certain side, you can design your plays to avoid him, yes--but you are still getting every receiver involved in the game. The Pats #1 WR had 9 catches for 109, Amendola had 5 catches for 48 yards, Gronk added 6 catches. So yeah, Sherman absolutely shuts down his assignment on nearly every play, but with smart play calling you can assign whatever WR is the last option to his side on every play.

On any certain play, the guy that splits out to Sherman's side can be the #3 or #4 option on that play--so even if you send Edelman out there, you can run that play to get your best option ON THAT PLAY free anyway. On the flip side, Seattle essentially had to design an entire game plan knowing their top WR was going to basically do nothing all game. I would MUCH rather design a game plan knowing what a certain WR is going to be essentially useless on any given play, but that I control who that WR is. Play X is designed to free up either Gronk or Edelman depending on what the safety does, and LaFell is on the field but the play isn't designed to go his way. Well, you split him out to Sherman's side and who cares--the play isn't going there. But if Sherman was following Edelman all game, then that entire play becomes much more risky. Or, a play designed for your top WR has to be taken out of the game plan.

I don't know if I explained it right, but there seems to be a huge difference there. Revis covers whoever the defense wants him to cover. Sherman covers whoever the offense wants him to cover. The Patriots dictated both sides of those matchups.

LogansDad · Feb 26, 2015

I think that is the perfect way to explain it DD.

Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt · Feb 26, 2015

Revis is a transformational player. He changed the defense and was, with little to no room for doubt, one of the three most important players on the patriots, along with TB12 and Gronk. The idea that we shouldn't pay him elite money, or shouldn't be pretty distressed if he leaves because we don't, seems short-sighted to me. It's a big deal, it's easily the most consequential personnel move of this off season.

j-man · Feb 26, 2015

u have to pay revis whatever he wants even if u have to cut him in 2017 or 2018 helping getting brady a 5th ring should be the num 1 goal this offseason and without revis your change of repeating goes down from 70 % to 45

right now the AFC is a 2-team race u and balt
without revis u let denver back in the race

Revis the Patriot: Countdown to March 10th

Wants to be startin somethin

Member

Member

Wants to be startin somethin

MentalDisabldLst

Guest

Member

for king and country

Member

for king and country

Member

New Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

bet squelcher

Skrub's sympathy case

Member

Member

Wants to be startin somethin

Costanza's Hero

Member

wishes Claude Makelele was a Red Sox

Member

I Want to Hit the World with Rocket Punch

Wants to be startin somethin

MentalDisabldLst

Guest

Member

Member

Dorito Dawg

Member

Member

Wants to be startin somethin

Member

Member

New Member

Dorito Dawg

Member

New Member

Member