Report: Mike Trout agrees to 6 year contract worth $140 million
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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terrisus said:
I believe I had read earlier that his 3 arb years were worth about 60 million. If so they bought out his free agent years for about 28 million AAV. When you take into account salary inflation in nominal dollars that 28 million in 2020 could be worth as little as 20 million, or about 1/2 what he would be worth on the open market.
Thats the thing, the further away you are from free agencies the bigger the discounts get. Players take them for the security as insurance against getting hurt. What can you do with 300 million that you can't do with 140 million? Buy a bigger island country?.
He left a crazy amount of money on the table, possibly close to another 100 million, all things considered. Honestly though, I'd bet he's pretty happy and the slight finical flexibility the Angels now have by underpaying Trout may help win them a WS in the future.nattysez said:
Sampo Gida said:
Huh? Are you saying you think he'd be worth 56 million dollars a year in 2020? If you're saying 40, I still don't understand. He'll be making 28, not 20, so it won't be half, it will be 70%. At first I was thinking 40 million was high as well, but maybe you're right.
Ed Hillel said:
I think he is worth 40 million today, and with salary inflation could be worth 54 million in 2020 assuming 5% increase per year.
I wonder if Trout considered the ten year deal the Angels wanted at all. There is a big advantage in being set for life with this deal and then, if everything goes well, signing a ten year contract at age 29 for god knows how much. $400,000,000 could be in play.
He'll be a free agent at age 29. At that time, if he keeps up his play he'll get his huge deal, either from the Angels or from someone else. But right now, he's getting paid enough that he will never worry about money in his lifetime (and his children and maybe grandchildren). It is a smart move.
Is there any basis at all to say that he would average 20m per arb year? I find that hard to believe.
LAA assumes all the risk here. They're betting that he'll be worth 30m+ per year 4 years from now. He may be but either way Trout will be well paid. If you want security 4 years in advance there has to be a discount.
LAA assumes all the risk here. They're betting that he'll be worth 30m+ per year 4 years from now. He may be but either way Trout will be well paid. If you want security 4 years in advance there has to be a discount.
glennhoffmania said:
Yeah, if anything, I think it's too early to make this kind of commitment when you know you have three more years of complete control over him. A lot can happen in that time, and if he suffers a catastrophic injury that takes him from the best player in the game to just above average, the team is going to look back at this and regret it. I know there are betting on him staying healthy, and that most injuries are ones we have the medical technology to bring athletes nearly 100% back from, but tying up 140 million over a six year span in which arbitration was going to deflate his AAV for the first three years seems a bit nuts to me.
I'm in no way arguing that Trout is not worth 23+ million a year. He is, and more. I'm just pointing out that baseball is not an environment where a player's worth is the end all be all with regard to their salary. Yes, the Angels are getting a discount, even if we throw his WAR out the window and look at his value anecdotally but it seems silly to do this so early. I guess if there's one player out there it's worth throwing all conventional wisdom out the window for it's Trout, but I'm surprised to see this happening this spring.
I really don't know. Is the record still Howard at $10m? I mean anything's possible but I think assuming he'd average $20m per year seems a little optimistic, and then it's hard to see how guaranteeing around $30m per year 4 years from now is some sort of huge bargain.
Edit- replying to Mak.
Edit- replying to Mak.
He's going to be making 33.5 million/year on the back end of this contract. He'll be going IN TO free agency as a 29 year old making 33.5 million a year.
His deal at age 29 is going to be epic. I think him and his agent played this as well as you could.
His deal at age 29 is going to be epic. I think him and his agent played this as well as you could.
Yeah, it's not a much of a bargain when I really think about it, I think it's the striking contrast between this and the Miggy deal that's throwing people through a loop. I know it's effecting my ability to judge this contract as anything but a win for the Angels.glennhoffmania said:
No, not even close. Lincecum made $9m and $14m his first two years of arb, and then asked for $22m his third year (the Giants offered $17m). They agreed to a contract which paid him $18m and $22m for his final two years of arbitration eligibility.glennhoffmania said:
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/giants/2012/01/24/giants-and-tim-lincecum-reach-agreement-on-two-year-40-5-million-contract/
Based on that you could expect the three arb years bought out to pay close to $20m per, if not more, had they gone year-by-year.
Toe Nash said:
So you're saying that yes, Howard at $10m in his first year is still the record. Lincecum was a super 2 and Trout was not, so you're comparing apples to oranges. In Lincecum's first 3 years of arb he made $41m. I'm not saying that Trout couldn't bump that up to $60 but it doesn't seem to be a lock.
Who forecasts yearly 5% inflation in the US over any 6 year stretch in the coming decades?Sampo Gida said:
Just a general question for the people on the forum, but when you guys say he is going to be worth $40 million in a few years, is that assuming that he is going to improve significantly, or just that right now, at his considerable talent level, he is worth $40 million? Personally, I think that Trout is probably at his ceiling right now, but if he improves, how much do you think he will improve by? Maybe his power numbers go up a little, but I don't think we are going to see a season where he hits .375 and hits 45+ homers.
He's 22. Even if you think he's at his ceiling right now (and I wouldn't really contest that either) odds are pretty high he's going to stay this good for a while. Considering he's already worth $40 million + it's not much of a stretch to say that he'd be worth $40 million in AAV over the life of this contract.Kliq said:
This seems like an excellent deal for both sides.
Trout is obviously now set for life - should he suffer a catastrophic injury, he will still have no financial worries. It makes perfect sense to take the guarentee of $144 million as opposed to possibly making considerably more going year to year and hitting free agency after '17. (At the end of the upcoming season, Trout will have made around $3.3 million in his career, which is a lot of money, but not set for life money.)
From the Angels's perspective, this will protect them from losing Trout after 2017. The will have the best player in baseball under contract for seven of his prime years.
If Trout continues his current career path, and salaries continue to rise like they have been, those three years of free agency could be worth up to $120 million (plus having to pay for all of the years beyond those three in a contract signed in 2017.)
Furthermore, given the Angels just signed Trout for $1 million for this year; In a sense this is a 7 year / 145.5 million deal.
Trout is obviously now set for life - should he suffer a catastrophic injury, he will still have no financial worries. It makes perfect sense to take the guarentee of $144 million as opposed to possibly making considerably more going year to year and hitting free agency after '17. (At the end of the upcoming season, Trout will have made around $3.3 million in his career, which is a lot of money, but not set for life money.)
From the Angels's perspective, this will protect them from losing Trout after 2017. The will have the best player in baseball under contract for seven of his prime years.
If Trout continues his current career path, and salaries continue to rise like they have been, those three years of free agency could be worth up to $120 million (plus having to pay for all of the years beyond those three in a contract signed in 2017.)
Furthermore, given the Angels just signed Trout for $1 million for this year; In a sense this is a 7 year / 145.5 million deal.
MakMan44 said:
It's the Angels. They'll piss away that flexibility on some shiny object sometime during the life of this contract.
