Redsox Top 10-20 Prospects EOY 2014

Eddie Jurak · Sep 28, 2014

1. Swihart
2. Owens
3. Margot
4. ERodriguez
5. Devers

That's how I'd rank the top 5. 6-10 is tougher.

6. Barnes (upside over performance)
7. Johnson
8. Cecchini
9. Ball (again, upside and progress over performance)
10. Ranaudo

Plympton91 · Sep 29, 2014

I'd rate Escobar (22 in AAA) ahead of Johnson (23 in AA) and Ranaudo (25 in AAA, plus 1 TJ surgery already and difficulty staying healthy), and Barnes (24 in AAA).

With Escobar at #6 for me, I find myself underwhelmed by the rest of the top 20. I'd probably put Barnes at #7 because most think he can be a dominant reliever if the starting thing doesn't work out. Then, Marrero and Cecchini remain interesting at 8 and 9 because they'll probably have careers at least as backups, but Marrero needs to learn to hit at least as well as Iglesias and Cecchini needs to show that April and August are the real Garin. I guess then I'd go with Chavis at 10, due to upside and the physical and mental adjustments he must've made to end up with good stats after a 1-40 or whatever start to his career.

Johnson and Ranaudo just have such low ceilings that it puts them at 11 and 12 for me, Johnson higher due to handedness. Then Coyle due to power potential at a middle infield position, though the strikeouts are worrisome.

After that it's just coin flips. Among people not mentioned so far, I'd probably try to find a way to get Heath Hembree and Steven Wright on my top 20 list. I think Nick Longhi would have been in the top 20 were it not for his ill timed injury, not sure if I'd get him there if I looked carefully. Gabe Speier now has a 32/2 K/BB ratio in 33 IP in the GCL, and comes with some hype. Mauricio Dubon was a decent hitter in Lowell at age 20, and last year won defensive player of the year in the GCL. Louis Alexander Basabe was just as good as Devers in the DSL, and you should probably discount heavily that he struggled somewhat in the GCL at 18 years old.

Another measure of the success of the farm system this year are the number of fringe prospects who had really good years:

Danny Mars is somebody I think I like better than some of the people hanging around the bottom of the list. Keith Couch, and Justin Haley are interesting in a Brian Johnson kind of way. Carson Blair has the aura of a late-blooming catcher, a la Scott Hatteburg. Reed Gragnani (300/409/406) looks like a keeper. Jantzen Witte has an outside shot to become a prospect with a successful move to AA next year.

1918stabbedbyfoulke · Sep 29, 2014

Where do you guys rank Dalier Hinojosa? I only saw him pitch in the IL finals against Durham. He kept the ball down, consistently hit mid to high 90's with late movement, and he threw good secondary pitches for strikes low in the zone. He got strikeouts and was not intimidated by the stage of the finals. The Durham announcers were very impressed and remarked his velocity was markedly improved from the low 90's they saw in the regular season. I know, I only saw a SSS, but I loved, loved, loved what I saw. Why is nobody talking about this 28 year old kid?

The Talented Allen Ripley · Sep 30, 2014

Why is nobody talking about this 28 year old kid?

I believe that's what's known as an oxymoron, and it's the answer to your question.

1918stabbedbyfoulke · Sep 30, 2014

The Allented Mr Ripley said:
I believe that's what's known as an oxymoron, and it's the answer to your question.

That's what I figured and why I phrased it that way sort of tongue in cheek. But, if the team is all in on a 27 year old Castillo, why not give the 28 year old Hinojosa a look? (again, tongue in cheek) With the uncertainty of the late inning bullpen from Koji's age and others' questionable effectiveness I think Hinojosa is worth considering. He was absolutely fearless in the situation, threw strikes that were well located and had closer level velocity. Apart from the SSS of the game I saw, what more could the parent club want? The nagging nitpick in my mind, if the Durham announcers were correct, is what led to the uptick in velocity? Was it getting comfortable with his mechanics or getting acclimated to pitching in the States? Whatever the reason, he would need to show that the velocity and command are here to stay and not something he was only able to summon once in the championship round.

SaveBooFerriss · Sep 30, 2014

1918stabbedbyfoulke said:
Where do you guys rank Dalier Hinojosa? I only saw him pitch in the IL finals against Durham. He kept the ball down, consistently hit mid to high 90's with late movement, and he threw good secondary pitches for strikes low in the zone. He got strikeouts and was not intimidated by the stage of the finals. The Durham announcers were very impressed and remarked his velocity was markedly improved from the low 90's they saw in the regular season. I know, I only saw a SSS, but I loved, loved, loved what I saw. Why is nobody talking about this 28 year old kid?

I think Hinojosa was overlooked because he started so poorly. I agree he is someone to watch.

pokey_reese · Sep 30, 2014

...ahead of Johnson (23 in AA)... Johnson and Ranaudo just have such low ceilings...

I think that you are underselling Johnson a bit, especially with regards to his age. He lost a lot of time to his freak injury, and has admitted how much it affected him for a while even once he came back before he was able to let it go.

nattysez · Oct 2, 2014

Enjoyed these tweets from Jonathan Bernhardt:

Eduardo Rodriguez is going to be in BA's EL top 10, which made me go check his BOS split. 0.96 ERA, 1.9 BB/9 in 37 IP. Okay then.

Nowhere near enough IP to be worth caring about yet but if Rodriguez shaves 1 BB/9 off by jumping orgs too, fire BAL's pitching dev crew

Eddie Jurak · Oct 5, 2014

SoxProspects' top 10:

1. Swihart
2. Owens
3. Margot
4. Devers
5. Rodriguez
6. Johnson
7. Barnes
8. Chavis
9. Ranaudo
10. Cecchini

KingChre · Oct 5, 2014

While I appreciate the great work the good folks at SoxProspects do, it frustrates me to no end how consistently conservative their projections are. The one that has me all riled up is listing EdRod's ceiling as a #2. I would think a lefty that touches 97 with solid average secondary offerings would have Ace potential. By their definition, is everyone other than King Felix or Kershaw a #2?

Merkle's Boner · Oct 5, 2014

KingChre said:
While I appreciate the great work the good folks at SoxProspects do, it frustrates me to no end how consistently conservative their projections are. The one that has me all riled up is listing EdRod's ceiling as a #2. I would think a lefty that touches 97 with solid average secondary offerings would have Ace potential. By their definition, is everyone other than King Felix or Kershaw a #2?

I'm not sure you understand how awesome it is to be a prospect with #2 potential. There are very few #1s, particularly in the Minor Leagues, probably like 1 or 2 each year.

gammoseditor · Oct 5, 2014

KingChre said:
While I appreciate the great work the good folks at SoxProspects do, it frustrates me to no end how consistently conservative their projections are. The one that has me all riled up is listing EdRod's ceiling as a #2. I would think a lefty that touches 97 with solid average secondary offerings would have Ace potential. By their definition, is everyone other than King Felix or Kershaw a #2?

I think you are confusing "has hit 97" with "throws 97". He sits in the low 90s which is good but not an ace based on velocity.

KingChre · Oct 7, 2014

Merkle's Boner said:
I'm not sure you understand how awesome it is to be a prospect with #2 potential. There are very few #1s, particularly in the Minor Leagues, probably like 1 or 2 each year.

I understand very well. I would take it the answer to my question would be yes then. Prospects like Kershaw or Felix were examples of the rare 1 or 2 prospects that come up and are considered #1s. I would like to see that definition be a bit more inclusive. I guess its just semantics, but considering there are 30 teams, I would think that more than 2 people would be considered #1 starters.

KingChre · Oct 7, 2014

gammoseditor said:
I think you are confusing "has hit 97" with "throws 97". He sits in the low 90s which is good but not an ace based on velocity.

Not really, he's 22, sitting 92-93 right now, with reports suggesting he still has room to fill out and potentially add velocity. If he adds 2 mph sitting velocity, and is able to develop his secondary offerings further, would that fall into ace territory? I would think so. Again, I'm not saying that I think it's the most likely outcome, I'm just going with the basic idea of a ceiling for the player.

SaveBooFerriss · Oct 7, 2014

Although he is not a top 20 prospect (he is not even listed as a top 60 prospect on soxprospects.com), there are reports from instrux that Jason Garcia is hitting 100. If this is sustainable, he could rise pretty quickly.

Savin Hillbilly · Oct 7, 2014

Merkle's Boner said:
I'm not sure you understand how awesome it is to be a prospect with #2 potential. There are very few #1s, particularly in the Minor Leagues, probably like 1 or 2 each year.

If this were true, then wouldn't the average #1 have to have a career lasting between 15 and 30 years?

Quintanariffic · Oct 7, 2014

Savin Hillbilly said:
If this were true, then wouldn't the average #1 would have to have a career lasting between 15 and 30 years?

Based on straight math, sure. But it's also likely that there is confusion b/c there are widely varying definitions of what a #1 means. If you are talking about true aces in the Kershaw, Felix and (prior to this year) Verlander mold, then you are limited to maybe a dozen guys. Then you have guys like James Shields who may be KC's "#1 starter" but who few knowledgeable baseball observers would describe as "a #1 starter" or "ace".

KingChre · Oct 7, 2014

Quintanariffic said:
Based on straight math, sure. But it's also likely that there is confusion b/c there are widely varying definitions of what a #1 means. If you are talking about true aces in the Kershaw, Felix and (prior to this year) Verlander mold, then you are limited to maybe a dozen guys. Then you have guys like James Shields who may be KC's "#1 starter" but who few knowledgeable baseball observers would describe as "a #1 starter" or "ace".

Out of curiosity, where would Lester rank on your spectrum? For me, I consider him a #1, albeit just underneath the Kershaws and Felix's of the world. I feel like SoxProspects would qualify him as a #2 by their definition. I can't find it on their site, but does anyone recollect how they described him in terms of ceiling?

foulkehampshire · Oct 7, 2014

KingChre said:
Out of curiosity, where would Lester rank on your spectrum? For me, I consider him a #1, albeit just underneath the Kershaws and Felix's of the world. I feel like SoxProspects would qualify him as a #2 by their definition. I can't find it on their site, but does anyone recollect how they described him in terms of ceiling?

A solid #2 with peak #1 seasons. Compared to Andy Pettitte a lot in his early career.

epraz · Oct 7, 2014

The whole #x starter concept is not very useful. There are 5 positions for starting pitchers on each team, but it's not like each team has to select one starter from each quintile of effectiveness across the league!

With WAR's popularity ever rising, I'm surprised more orgs haven't started using something like WAR to communicate projections. It would be a lot more useful to say that Rodriguez's "ceiling" is a 4-WAR season.

ALiveH · Oct 7, 2014

The # starter could be useful as shorthand for quintiles to the extent that WAR distribution is fairly predictable.

For example, only 88 pitchers pitched enough innings to qualify (for ERA) this year. If you broke them into quintiles ~18 pitchers per quintile. Then, fWAR breaks as follows:

#1 3.9+
#2 2.8-3.8
#3 2.1-2.8
#4 1.5-2.1
#5 <1.5

This is pretty intuitive to me. If you broke it into quintiles among qualified starters, then every year there are probably only about 15-20 number 1s. And, if the average #1 pitcher has 5-8 peak years (my guess, I haven't run the numbers), you might only have 2-3 number 1 ceiling prospects come out per year.

as an aside, according to this methodology Shields was a good #2. Lester, Scherzer & Sale were clear-cut #1s and Samardzija was a low #1.

epraz · Oct 7, 2014

Sure, but there's considerable difference regarding what the perception of what the #Xs imply, particularly when talking about #1 and #5, as demonstrated upthread.

SumnerH · Oct 8, 2014

ALiveH said:
The # starter could be useful as shorthand for quintiles to the extent that WAR distribution is fairly predictable.

For example, only 88 pitchers pitched enough innings to qualify (for ERA) this year. If you broke them into quintiles ~18 pitchers per quintile. Then, fWAR breaks as follows:

#1 3.9+
#2 2.8-3.8
#3 2.1-2.8
#4 1.5-2.1
#5 <1.5

This is pretty intuitive to me. If you broke it into quintiles among qualified starters, then every year there are probably only about 15-20 number 1s. And, if the average #1 pitcher has 5-8 peak years (my guess, I haven't run the numbers), you might only have 2-3 number 1 ceiling prospects come out per year.

as an aside, according to this methodology Shields was a good #2. Lester, Scherzer & Sale were clear-cut #1s and Samardzija was a low #1.

This is more useful to me than discussing a #1 vs a #2. Some people seem to insist that only the top 5 aces are "real" #1s, others believe that the top 30 pitchers are #1s (obviously they're not spread across all teams), whatever.

But a WARQ1 (WAR Quintile 1) pitcher vs. a WARQ3 pitcher has a somewhat cleaner definition. There are obviously differences in definitions--you have fWARQ1 and rWARQ1, and could talk about FIPSQ1 or whatever else. And it remains arbitrary to quantize things rather than just discussing statistical ceilings. But it makes it clearer what you're talking about than #1 vs #5 and still lets people talk about semi-intuitive "top of the rotation" and "bottom of the rotation" guys and the like.

ALiveH · Oct 8, 2014

I do agree with KingChre's overall point that the SoxProspects guys seem to err on the side of conservatism, which I actually enjoy as a counterbalance to my (and most people's) natural tendency to lean the other direction, aka "prospect humping."

foulkehampshire · Oct 8, 2014

ALiveH said:
I do agree with KingChre's overall point that the SoxProspects guys seem to err on the side of conservatism, which I actually enjoy as a counterbalance to my (and most people's) natural tendency to lean the other direction, aka "prospect humping."

They've gotten better about it.

At one point they listed Michael Bowden's MLB comparison as David Cone.

JakeRae · Oct 8, 2014

One thing to remember is that ceiling is not a 99th percentile projection. I think, for them, it is around 80th percentile. So, somewhat counterintuitively, a player's ceiling being a number 2 probably does indicate an outside shot at being an ace.

KingChre · Oct 9, 2014

JakeRae said:
One thing to remember is that ceiling is not a 99th percentile projection. I think, for them, it is around 80th percentile. So, somewhat counterintuitively, a player's ceiling being a number 2 probably does indicate an outside shot at being an ace.

Thanks for posting this, I did not know that. It clears up some of my confusion. I was in fact thinking of ceiling as a 99th percentile projection.

RedOctober3829 · Oct 14, 2014

Brian MacPherson ‏@brianmacp 9s10 seconds ago
Five of the top 10 prospects in the Double-A Eastern League, per @baseballamerica, were Red Sox: Betts, Owens, Rodriguez, Swihart, Johnson.

The Talented Allen Ripley · Oct 14, 2014

Marrero was also listed in the bottom teens, bringing the total in the Top 20 to 6.

Snodgrass'Muff · Oct 14, 2014

The system is still incredibly deep even if it's not quite as impressive at the top with Betts and Bogaerts having graduated. I don't really count Castillo as a prospect, even if some do, but even without him they have an impressive top ten and it wouldn't surprise me if they remained a top 5 system in the rankings this winter. I'm shying away from specifically ranking guys after reading that the Sox don't think of their prospects this way, but I think Swihart and Rodriquez are in a group all their own with Owens, Devers, and Margot right behind. Devers is probably my favorite guy to follow right now, but his age and lack of professional experience hold him back from being in the top tier for me. Margot seems to have a Jacoby (excluding 2011) ceiling, which is incredibly valuable, but a good chance to come up well short of that. Owens has great swing and miss stuff, but it's tough to project him as anything more than a middle of the rotation starter without a better fastball. If he can learn to command his heater like Cliff Lee, sure, he'll be an ace. Cliff Lee is the rare exception for a reason, though.

Anyway, I'd break it down like this:

Swihart and Rodriguez. I may be overreacting to Rodriguez's time with his new organization, but his stuff is just so tantalizing. I might look back at myself in a year and laugh at grouping him with Swihart, but I'm buying right now. Swihart is a no brainer for the upper tier, IMO (and the opinion of pretty much every person paying attention). I'm all about Christian Vazquez, but Swihart could and probably should displace him as the primary starter if he doesn't derail. That catching tandem could be the envy of the league in three years.

Devers, Owens and Margot. Owens seems like a safe bet to be a league average or slightly above league average starter with the upside of a John Lackey circa 2013 type (in effectiveness). Lots of innings, consistently good from night to night, and the ability to dominate from time to time. Devers has enormous potential with the bat, but a long way to go to get there. If he's even 75% of what he could be, he's a comfortably above average hitter. Margot, as I mentioned above, is shaping up to be a Jacoby Ellsbury type center fielder, excluding the outlier that was 2011. There is still time for him to falter and flame out, but he's getting close enough to get really excited about. He probably ends up short of what Jacoby was from 2007-2010, but even that would be valuable to have on the roster.

Johnson, Barnes, Cecchini, Ranaudo, Hembree, and Marrero. All low ceiling high floor type players, all close enough to the majors to make reasonable guesses about. Barnes might be the only exception to this if you consider a late inning reliever to be a high ceiling, but for me that's less valuable than even an average starter, so I consider it a low ceiling. Reasonable minds can disagree there.

Chavis, Ball, Travis, Kopech, Rijo, Coyle. Lot's of high upside here, also lots of risks for flame outs. Ball still has a ton of potential, and he looked like he was headed in the right direction late in the season. Chavis and Kopech were 2014 draftees, both with great tools/stuff and intriguing ceilings but both are coming out of high school, so the risk of them never even reaching Portland is high enough, never mind never reaching the majors. Rijo is on the Mookie path, but is still looking at that huge jump from A to AA sitting in front of him, and Coyle has come back from numerous injuries to show what made him so appealing in the first place. Unfortunately, that injury track record means he could end up the next Ryan Kalish. The name that may stand out as odd in this list for some is Sam Travis. Travis was a college draftee who has a shorter time table for potentially reaching the majors as he is more polished than the high school kids from this list. However, he has some really big power and a solid hit tool. I could see him being similar to Youk (at the plate) at his peak if he reaches his ceiling. What limits him is his defense, as he's already just a first baseman. Maybe he ends up the eventual replacement for Papi as the primary DH who can spell 1st and maybe learn to cover left field if things break well. So I see him as a high upside guy, hence his inclusion in this group, but I would classify him as high floor type. I think there's a pretty good chance he ends up a decent bench bat or maybe a DH for a non-playoff caliber roster for at least a few years. He's far more likely to be the latter than the former, of course, or he'd be in one of the groups above this.

Stankiewicz, Shaw, Longhi, Escobar, and Wright. This is a mix of high floor low ceiling and high ceiling low floor types, but none with ceilings as high as the group just above this. Longhi is very intriguing, but has a long way to go with the bat to reach his potential and of course had thumb surgery this year. Stankiewicz seems like a decent bet to be a back of the rotation starter type, or maybe a late inning reliever. Same with Escobar. Wright is probably a solid long man for a few years and Shaw reminds me a bit of Lavarnway. A solid enough, if not spectacular bat, with a low defensive profile and no where to play at the major league level right now.

Names to keep an eye on: Anderson Espinoza and Christopher Acosta. Both are July 2nd signees from this past summer, but they were ranked by many as the top two pitchers available on the international market. One or both could jump into the top 20 for the system with strong first seasons in the DSL and/or GCL. Though it entirely possible neither even plays in the DSL, given their age.

Auger34 · Oct 14, 2014

Awesome post Snod, really like how you grouped them into tiers. I think that is how most organizations in sports go about ranking their inventory as opposed to the 1-10 rankings.

I do have a question for you though...wouldn't you say Swihart (and to a lesser extent Owens) are great trade chips? The presence of Vazquez eases the pain of trading Blake and the Red Sox have so many pitching prospects who are projected to be #3s or back-end starters that I Owens isn't a must keep. I am not talking about trading Blake for some random guy but I think him and Owens could be the top liners in a trade for a really good pitcher or position player (Donaldson maybe? Jordan Zimmerman? Maybe Ranaudo, Owens, Swihart, Cecchini, and Marrero for Donaldson and Shark?).

Am I off base on this? Are Donaldson and Zim too high a target for what Swihart Owens and lesser players would bring in? Really interested in hearing your opinion on this. I just read the FanGraphs piece and it seems as exciting a time as ever to be a Sox fan (also after reading that, what I thought before is confirmed...the only way I am trading Betts or Bogaerts is if I am getting someone 26 or under locked into a decent contract, and those guys are basically never available)

Snodgrass'Muff · Oct 14, 2014

The tiers approach was just building on the OP's break down and comments from the Sox that they don't do linear rankings. As for the trade chips comment, for me, no one is untouchable, even if there are rumblings from sources with the Sox about Swihart not being up for discussion. I wouldn't move him without getting a stud back, though. I'm not sure Donaldson qualifies. Owens is probably the highest value trade chip they have that they are likely to discuss a lot this winter. I wouldn't be unhappy if he was the headliner in a deal for someone like Donaldson or Zimmerman.

Swihart has somehow managed to reach or exceed every single goal set for him so far as a professional and has gone from having a lofty ceiling that he was unlikely to reach to being fairly close to reaching his potential as he gets ready for a full season at AAA. He may not have quite the exciting billing that Bogaerts had or the gaudy stats that Mookie put up, but the fact that he's looking like a slightly above average defensive catcher before you factor in the plus (or maybe plus plus) arm while being every bit the hitter we were hoping to get when he was drafted is amazing. His ceiling is perennial all star and his floor is probably average major league starter at a very difficult to fill position. I don't move him for anyone short of a guy like Stanton, and I don't think a deal like that is likely so I'm guessing he stays put.

mauf · Oct 14, 2014

Great post, Snod.

I would flip-flop Owens and Rodriguez. Owens's demonstrated ability to make batters swing and miss trumps Rodriguez's potential for me. Also, I tend to be bearish about pitchers we acquire by trade -- I felt that way about RDLR and Webster, and although I'm more optimistic about Rodriguez than I ever was about either of those two, the O's willingness to part with him for an RP rental gives me pause.

I'm also bearish on Ranaudo and would rate him much lower. Maybe it's an SSS overreaction to his dismal big-league stint, but it's not like he missed a ton of bats in AAA this season, and he's past the age where you can focus on his tools and pedigree and ignore his uneven results. I haven't watched him closely enough to know if he has promise as a reliever, where he could ditch his secondary offerings and not worry about going through the lineup a second or third time.

Snodgrass'Muff · Oct 14, 2014

Those are fair disagreements, Mauf. I think Ranaudo does end up a solid reliever in the end, but I have a hard time seeing him being worse than that. So either a really good middle reliever or a decent setup guy, I guess. Low ceiling, high floor. I could certainly be wrong about him, though.

As for Owens vs Rodriguez, I might be a victim of "Ooh! New and shiny!" but Rodriguez looks to have better stuff and, more importantly, a significantly better fastball. I think that pulls him ahead, but again... new and shiny!

I also realized I forgot to include Hembree, who I meant to include in the low ceiling, high floor tier. I don't think he profiles as an elite late inning reliever, but he could be a solid closer or setup man for a non contender, IMO. I'll add him in now.

ALiveH · Oct 14, 2014

catcher is such a high wear-and-tear position. if they both pan out, might it make sense to make vasquez the primary catcher (b/c of his elite D) and swihart the rotating backup betwee C / DH (and possibly 1B/LF?). That way they both stay relatively fresh (and both hit better).

Auger34 · Oct 14, 2014

RE: Ranaudo..
Some of @redsoxstats tweets have really soured me on him. His peripherals are not great, FB velocity and movement are below average, and it seems like he is getting by on sort of smoke and mirrors. If they can get something of value for the major league team I would do it in a heart beat. (However, I think he would be a good #4/5 in the NL and/or in a pitcher's park)

Auger34 · Oct 14, 2014

It's really funny how values differ between people (especially Red Sox fans on their prospects). I got tarred and feathered on soxprospects for suggesting that Donaldson could be traded for Swihart, Owens, Cecchini, and Coyle, now I am thinking that is a pretty goddamn fair offer.

The Talented Allen Ripley · Oct 15, 2014

BA has 4 Sox listed among the IL's Top 20 Prospects:

#2 Betts
#6 Ranaudo
#16 Vazquez
#19 Webster

Mighty Joe Young · Oct 15, 2014

tbb345 said:
It's really funny how values differ between people (especially Red Sox fans on their prospects). I got tarred and feathered on soxprospects for suggesting that Donaldson could be traded for Swihart, Owens, Cecchini, and Coyle, now I am thinking that is a pretty goddamn fair offer.

Actually I don't think the Sox would do that .. more like one of Swihart/Owens plus Cecchini and Coyle

Sprowl · Oct 15, 2014

The Allented Mr Ripley said:
BA has 4 Sox listed among the IL's Top 20 Prospects:

#2 Betts
#6 Ranaudo
#16 Vazquez
#19 Webster

That is the highest I've seen anybody rank Ranaudo for years. The explanation is behind a paywall, but I wonder if they actually watched Ranaudo pitch. His exposure in the majors showed him to be significantly lower than Webster in development and ceiling.

Hee Sox Choi · Oct 17, 2014

Sprowl said:
That is the highest I've seen anybody rank Ranaudo for years. The explanation is behind a paywall, but I wonder if they actually watched Ranaudo pitch. His exposure in the majors showed him to be significantly lower than Webster in development and ceiling.

Yeah, I agree, Sprowl. I think McDaniel at Fangraphs pegged Ranaudo (45 future value): Ranaudo was yet another former first rounder and while the 6’7/230 monster has cleaned up his delivery some and still flashed a plus fastball-curveball combo, the changeup and command still lag behind, making a relief fit likely.

billy ashley · Oct 18, 2014

RE Ranaudo ranking:

Of the close to MLB ready starters (Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes, and Johnson), he probably has the lowest probability of succeeding as a starter (apart from Barnes, who's stuff may look so tantalizing for a reliever he gets swapped) due to the fact that his third pitch isn't all the great and his lack of fastball command gets him in trouble.

That being said, at times, his curve ball rivals Owens change-up. He's also steadily improved over the past two seasons after looking like toast in 2012. He's not a guy you cry about if he's traded, but I do think we may be selling him a little short. He's overcome a slew of injuries and several adjustments to his mechanics over his journey to the high minors. There may be a little more projection in him, more than one would normally expect from a 25 year old, anyway.

Again, I expect him to probably end up in the pen... but I do think there's a solid chance he ends up being a back end starter.

Rasputin · Oct 18, 2014

ALiveH said:
catcher is such a high wear-and-tear position. if they both pan out, might it make sense to make vasquez the primary catcher (b/c of his elite D) and swihart the rotating backup betwee C / DH (and possibly 1B/LF?). That way they both stay relatively fresh (and both hit better).

This is my plan. Vazquez catches four times a week. Swihart three. Swihart also gets a game a week at first, and one at DH. Or, more likely, two at first because the manager is afraid the catcher gets hurt. Whatever, it means Ortiz and the first baseman, be it Nap or Craig, gets a day off.

Hee Sox Choi · Oct 19, 2014

Project 361 writer who went to AFL did write-ups for a bunch of players, here is Marrero:

Deven Marrero (Bos, DH)
Deven Marrero was another player that looked overmatched. He was passive at the plate and when he did make contact, it was weak contact. If this were the first time I had seen Marrero, I would cross it off as a small sample size, but I’ve had the same feeling every time I’ve seen him play. He’s ok, but he’s not going to be a star.
http://prospect361.com

ehaz · Oct 30, 2014

BA's Red Sox top 10

Swihart
Owens
Castillo
Rodriguez
Johnson
Devers
Margot
Barnes
Marrero
Cecchini

How many catchers are there like Swihart in the minors? “There are none,” said one evaluator, a testament to his offensive and defensive potential as well as his head-turning athleticism. He has made huge strides behind the plate, where he now profiles as an above-average defender who led the Eastern League by a wide margin while gunning down 47 percent of attempted base thieves, with pop times averaging about 1.9 seconds and getting below 1.8 on occasion. Evaluators marvel that he has the athleticism and speed to play virtually anywhere on the field—some even suggested he could play center or second—though behind the plate, he has a chance to be a two-way force. Offensively, though he shows an aggressive approach that limits his walks, he displays good pitch recognition, typically swings at strikes and sends line drives screaming to the gaps. Though still stronger from the right side, he shows above-average bat speed and bat control from both sides of the plate, and he won’t be beaten by velocity, while switch-hitting will limit his vulnerability to breaking balls.

Scouting Report: Rodriguez sits at 92-94 mph but regularly touched 96 and 97 in his outings with the Red Sox. He complements that with a killer changeup that he sells well—some evaluators thought it was superior to Owens’—and a slider that sometimes grades as slightly below-average but shows the potential to be average or slightly above. Once with the Sox, he started using his changeup to lefties and attacking the inside of the plate to excellent effect. He shows impressive athleticism and a repeatable delivery.
The Future: Rodriguez’s explosive fastball and changeup after joining the Sox both graded as plus offerings. If his slider develops to at least average, his potential is immense. “That kid can beJohan Santana Part 2,” one evaluator said. “If his breaking ball improves one tick, he’s going to be outstanding.” He should start 2015 in Triple-A, but if he pitches as he did in Portland, a mid-year move to the big leagues wouldn’t be surprising.

Says a lot about the farm that "Johan Santana part 2" is only prospect #4 in this system

gryoung · Oct 30, 2014

Swihart seems to be close to an "untouchable" tag.

Eddie Jurak · Oct 30, 2014

Did Speier do the BA top 10 again?

Savin Hillbilly · Oct 30, 2014

Interesting to see Johnson ranked above Margot and Devers. Seems to confirm the tweet that said the Sox will probably deal one of Johnson/Owens/Rodriguez this winter. They're all at pretty similar stages of development (though at different ages), they all just had a really good 2014, and the Sox probably won't have room for more than two of them at the most in the near-to-medium future. So it makes sense to cash one of them in.

Redsox Top 10-20 Prospects EOY 2014

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