Red Sox speak with Tanaka's agent. Should they try to sign him?

The Gray Eagle

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Cafardo says the Sox "may still pursue Tanaka" and that they have had talks with his agent. (looks like the second link is basically the same article as the first, just with a different headline.)
 
I think they absolutely should go after him. You very rarely get the chance to acquire a potential top of the rotation starter with great stuff who is still in his mid-20s in exchange for just money-- no draft pick given up, no talent given up. I hope the Red Sox go for it and don't allow the likes of Peavy and Dempster and their one-year contracts (or the wishes and hopes that one of Webster, Ranaudo, Owens et al will turn into a top-level starter in the very near future) prevent them from trying to add a guy like Tanaka.
 
Obviously Japan isn't as high a level of play as the majors, but even if you consider it to be similar to AAA, anyone who put up Tanaka's numbers in AAA and has his stuff would be considered one of the top prospects in the game. And he's got the age and international experience to step in right away. 
 
This seems like a fantastic opportunity that won't come around again soon, so I hope the Sox make a strong bid for him. 
 

RedOctober3829

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They absolutely should try to sign him. Even if they just drive up the price for others, they should be in the mix. Our prospects have great potential, but they are still prospects. This is a player who they should be in on as it just costs money.
 

RG33

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The Gray Eagle said:
Cafardo says the Sox "may still pursue Tanaka" and that they have had talks with his agent. (looks like the second link is basically the same article as the first, just with a different headline.)
 
I think they absolutely should go after him. You very rarely get the chance to acquire a potential top of the rotation starter with great stuff who is still in his mid-20s in exchange for just money-- no draft pick given up, no talent given up. I hope the Red Sox go for it and don't allow the likes of Peavy and Dempster and their one-year contracts (or the wishes and hopes that one of Webster, Ranaudo, Owens et al will turn into a top-level starter in the very near future) prevent them from trying to add a guy like Tanaka. . .
I would think there is almost a zero chance that having Peavy/Dempster under contract would dissuade them from going after a top of the rotation SP (if they deem Tanaka such), and almost as low likelihood that having prospects like the above referenced would either. The question will be do they want to invest 5-6 years at $20-25 million per year in a fairly unkown commodity, particularly when they have the Lester re-signing on the horizon potentially.
 

jimbobim

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The question of whether this years team could use a number 2 ceiling or at worse innings eater who has pretty solid control and could be essentially Kuroda 2.0 or Darvish lite is semantics. The answer is yes. 
 
The Sox have shown a willingness to overpay in AAV for for shorter years. One could conceivably be comfortable with an offer of a 6-7 year deal in the 165 range (185) including posting range with a player option in year 4. 25-32 would be prime years . 
 
I'm not saying it goes that high because he hasn't thrown a pitch but he does have many suitors. If the Sox envision a Lester Tanaka Clay Lackey Doubrount/ Peavy combo one of the best and  deepest rotations in baseball it would be tough to argue. 
 

TomRicardo

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I mean what else does Ben Cherington have to do right now besides hope someone signs Drew?  Until Tanaka falls into place the rest of the pitching market is stagnant and you can't trade a starter if so inclined.
 

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Tanaka's numbers are obviously enticing and I'd hate to see him end up with the MFYs or any other AL contender.
 
But:
 
- already has a lot of mileage/innings thrown
 
- Lester is on deck and big dollars to Tanaka could make signing Lester more difficult
 
- as we've seen, Japanese league star pitchers don't always translate into MLB star pitchers
 
- the Sox already have 6 potential starters and some strong prospects, including Workman who enjoyed success as a starter last year with the Sox
 
- Tanaka will likely command at least a five year deal, which is counter to their recent approach
 
- Tanaka would likely push them over the luxury tax threshold (not my money but still not the best place to be)
 
I'd like to see them stay close to the bidding in case the market is softer than expected and, as mentioned, to make the Yankees' price as high as possible if they choose to buy him.  But I don't think I'd pull the trigger given those factors.
 

Infield Infidel

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I agree with TheoShmeo's first three points but these 
TheoShmeo said:
- Tanaka will likely command at least a five year deal, which is counter to their recent approach
 
- Tanaka would likely push them over the luxury tax threshold (not my money but still not the best place to be)
 
I'd like to see them stay close to the bidding in case the market is softer than expected and, as mentioned, to make the Yankees' price as high as possible if they choose to buy him.  But I don't think I'd pull the trigger given those factors.
 
I don't think the Sox approach has been to not go to five years, it's been to not sign guys who are 29+ to long-term deals. Tanaka is 25, so a 5-6 year deal will be for his prime years. 
 
Luxury tax, whatever, it's one year and they have a lot of money coming off the books after this season

That said, If they really don't want him, I don't want them in it purely to drive up the price. You don't want to accidentally get him, or you could have a Crawford-esque fiasco, having a guy you really didn't want and/or need. There are plenty of other teams, Angels, Dodgers, White Sox, Cubs, in it that will drive the price up
 

Joshv02

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I believe it was in his BA chat  (which is now subscription only), but I think Speier reported that the Red Sox are less excited by his talent than other teams, and view him as a #3.  $140mm - or that ballpark - is a lot for a #3.
 

jimbobim

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Speier is a very good source and the league consensus seems to be floor of a number 3 with the upside to be a Haren/ Kuroda type number 2 so I would say he's probably partially right. During the winter meetings there was a report the Sox had  internal discussions about Tanaka and they also sent a scout out there during the year. 
 
It doesn't make any sense for the Red Sox to be as blatantly obvious about their interest as the Yankees or Dodgers. If either one of those teams wanted to blow everyone away with a grandfather offer it would be done already. However, the Dodgers don't want to raise the market on themselves for Kershaw and the Yankees are trying to get a deal entirely on their terms I'd suspect.
 
Bottom Line- if the Red Sox and their internal scouts think he has an above average chance of turning into a number 2 and the medicals check out they should be heavily interested and it would be foolish to let the Dice K experience have any bearing what so ever on their pursuit. (Only reason I even bring up Dice-K is the worry a lot of people have about Japanese workload. The point is while Dice K flamed out after a couple of years one can equally point to Darvish and Kuroda as success stories) 
 

KillerBs

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Just eyeballing Tanaka's JPPL stats, a few things stand out, aside from the sick W-L, ERAs over the last few years.
 
1. As noted above, there is a lot of wear and tear on that 25 year old arm. 1315 innings over 7 years, pitching at the JPPL level since he was 18 leads me to conclude his right arm is conisderably "older" than the typical 25 year old state side ML pitcher. 
 
2. Decling K rates over last 3 years from 9.6 in 2011 to 7.8 last year are a cause for concern. Major point of separation between him and Darvish of course.
 
3. OTOH, he has ridiculously good control.
 
He looks a little more like an Iwakuma/Kuroda type as opposed to Darvish, which is still a pretty damn good pitcher, but the IPs present a signficant risk factor IMO.
 
We are sitting on more than a few potential options for starters in 14/15/16/17, so the odds that Tanaka is markedly better than whoever it is that otherwise would be filling that spot are less than what they are for the Yanks, Mets etc.
 

seantoo

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TheoShmeo said:
Tanaka's numbers are obviously enticing and I'd hate to see him end up with the MFYs or any other AL contender.
 
But:
 
- already has a lot of mileage/innings thrown
 
- Lester is on deck and big dollars to Tanaka could make signing Lester more difficult
 
- as we've seen, Japanese league star pitchers don't always translate into MLB star pitchers
 
- the Sox already have 6 potential starters and some strong prospects, including Workman who enjoyed success as a starter last year with the Sox
 
- Tanaka will likely command at least a five year deal, which is counter to their recent approach
 
- Tanaka would likely push them over the luxury tax threshold (not my money but still not the best place to be)
 
I'd like to see them stay close to the bidding in case the market is softer than expected and, as mentioned, to make the Yankees' price as high as possible if they choose to buy him.  But I don't think I'd pull the trigger given those factors.
 Obviously the Sox have done their due dilligence so whatever they decide to do who am I to disagree.
However a few of the counter reason you provide are flawed.
 
The prospect depth we have will have little to no impact on what the Red Sox do. I've been accused of being a fanboy for prospects but they are only prospects until proven otherwise, unless someone is a top 10, maybe top 20 in all of baseball such as Xander.
 
The Sox recent approach does not exclude signing someone to a 5 year deal especially when said player is 25 years old. In fact that is the type of player they would focus on because a long term deal would cover their prime years.
 
The Sox were below the luxury tax last year so this is in large part irrellevant. Alot of money comes off the payroll next season, by my calculations $71 Million and the market will be thin next year so if the Sox are interested in him he's the one to target this year and next.
 
Wasting ones time to drive up someone elses price is a waste of your time and resources and I don't believe the Sox even know what others will be bidding to begin with.
 
Finally, signing Tanaka gives the Sox more leverage to sign Lester on their terms.
 

snowmanny

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I don't believe that signing Tanaka gives them any "leverage" over Lester. It might make them more disciplined in sticking to their valuation, but they'd probably be pretty disciplined anyway.

They say they've "expressed a level of interest that makes sense to us" in Tanaka to his agent, which to me sounds like they've made at least a ballpark offer. It would be surprising if they were the high bidder.
 

Rasputin

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I don't think Tanaka would affect Lester but it might ensure that Lackey doesn't come back.
 

jimbobim

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Gammons on MLB Tonight says LA and NY are hovering around 120 mill for Tanaka which with a posting fee would be 140 mill investment. 
 
I might be willing to give 150 but I'd front load the deal. 
 

jimbobim

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First Four Years at 25 AAV opt out option for player( Would take Tanaka to 29 theoretically another long contract could be on the free agent market)
 
then 15 million in the last two years. If he's the lower end of the projection a innings eating number 3 type he probably sticks around for 30 million if he's better and leaves i probably had a pretty good four years for 100 mill in the primes of Pedroia, Lester( should also get an extension),Napoli,Xander , and the tail end of Papi. 
 
130 over six years opt out after year 4 plus 20 mill posting fee= 150 mill investment for a high upside pitching prospect. Expensive but lots of money being cleared. 
 

jhogan88

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I don't think Tanaka would affect Lester but it might ensure that Lackey doesn't come back.


Lackey has been a crucial starter a decade apart for two different World Series Champions. I dont see the rush to kick John to the curb for this Tanka guy. Signing Tanka really makes Boston better by upgrading the Peavy/Dempster/Webster slot.
 

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jhogan88 said:
Lackey has been a crucial starter a decade apart for two different World Series Champions. I dont see the rush to kick John to the curb for this Tanka guy. Signing Tanka really makes Boston better by upgrading the Peavy/Dempster/Webster slot.
 
I don't know what's worse, that you think his name is Tanka or you think there's a Peavy/Dempster/Webster slot.
 
My point was that if you sign Tanaka, and re-sign Lester, you have Peavy and Dempster as free agents after 2014, Lackey as a free agent after 2015, Buchholz as a free agent after 2016, and Doubront as a free agent after 2017. Tanaka, Lester, Buchholz, and Doubront would be a pretty good core to be adding to.
 
Personally, I don't see it happening, and if the Yankees are actually serious about the cap thing, he's going to end up with the Dodgers.
 

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You're doing the math wrong.
 
The point is not to make sure that what you are paying the player what you estimate him to be worth in each year as you factor in any age related decline. The point is to take advantage of the effects of inflation so that you sign the player to a deal you think matches his overall value over the term of the contract in present dollars and then let those inflationary effects work for you on the back end so when his salary increases, it doesn't cost as much. This is why contracts are almost always backloaded.
 

glennhoffmania

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OCD SS said:
You're doing the math wrong.
 
The point is not to make sure that what you are paying the player what you estimate him to be worth in each year as you factor in any age related decline. The point is to take advantage of the effects of inflation so that you sign the player to a deal you think matches his overall value over the term of the contract in present dollars and then let those inflationary effects work for you on the back end so when his salary increases, it doesn't cost as much. This is why contracts are almost always backloaded.
 
I think his point was that if Tanaka has already earned the majority of his contract and he's performed well, he may opt out and let Boston off the hook.  If you backload it the chances of him opting out go down.  I'm not saying I agree with the strategy and I hate the concept of opt outs.  Maybe jimbobim is Cashman's screen name.
 

benhogan

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jimbobim said:
First Four Years at 25 AAV opt out option for player( Would take Tanaka to 29 theoretically another long contract could be on the free agent market)
 
then 15 million in the last two years. If he's the lower end of the projection a innings eating number 3 type he probably sticks around for 30 million if he's better and leaves i probably had a pretty good four years for 100 mill in the primes of Pedroia, Lester( should also get an extension),Napoli,Xander , and the tail end of Papi. 
 
130 over six years opt out after year 4 plus 20 mill posting fee= 150 mill investment for a high upside pitching prospect. Expensive but lots of money being cleared. 
Huh? I don't like this idea at all.  Player options to opt out after the majority of the $$$ is paid, only assholes like the Yankees do that crap. If you are paying Tanaka $25MM/yr, what do you pay Lester to extend him?  That would take us straight through the salary cap, and would reduce our flexibility during the season and the next 4 years.
 
Let's stay the course we are on, promote from within, and kick the tires on free agents (w/ 1yr 'pillow' contracts) that are desperate at the end of Feb.  Also staying $10MM under the $189MM salary cap to start the season is fine by me. I like the idea of retaining financial flexibility during the season to make deals to fill in spots of weakness/injuries or take advantage of another teams fire/garage sale.
 

Puffy

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benhogan said:
Huh? I don't like this idea at all.  Player options to opt out after the majority of the $$$ is paid, only assholes like the Yankees do that crap. If you are paying Tanaka $25MM/yr, what do you pay Lester to extend him?  That would take us straight through the salary cap, and would reduce our flexibility during the season and the next 4 years.
 
Let's stay the course we are on, promote from within, and kick the tires on free agents (w/ 1yr 'pillow' contracts) that are desperate at the end of Feb.  Also staying $10MM under the $189MM salary cap to start the season is fine by me. I like the idea of retaining financial flexibility during the season to make deals to fill in spots of weakness/injuries or take advantage of another teams fire/garage sale.
 
This is where I am at. Investing $150 million in Tanaka doesn't seem like a risk worth taking. The likelihood of Tanaka's value meeting or exceeding the cost seems lower than the likelihood of injury, flameout, or even just mediocrity.  I think the Sox need to seek surplus value where they can and invest top dollars for more proven assets.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Isn't Tanaka subject to the same rules as any other rookie in that whatever team signs him has control of him for six years regardless of the length of the original deal?  My point being that I don't think Tanaka could opt-out of his contract at four years since with or without the contract he'd still be under team control for two more years.  I suppose language could be put in that promises the Sox wouldn't offer arb and would release him if he wanted out, blah blah blah.
 
Here's the biggest reason I'd be hesitant to hand over huge buckets of money for Tanaka...the mileage on his arm.  He's coming over a year younger than Matsuzaka was, but with only about 90 innings less work in his NPL career.  We saw what happened with Daisuke in years 3 and 4 of his deal.  Obviously what happened to him isn't a guarantee of what will happen with Tanaka, but the red flags are there.  He's a talent, perhaps a generational talent, but the chances that his most productive and healthy years are behind him are somewhat high, IMO.
 

jimbobim

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1) The Dice K comparison- This is perhaps the most annoying talking point people who don't want to go after Tanaka use. Dice K was solid if entirely frustrating to watch for two years before the WBC and being off and on out of shape combined with the milage on his arm led to him being completely useless. Additionally Tanaka from all reports has way better control and a plus plus splitter  which makes them completely  different pitchers. Also the Dice K hesitation was probably a large reason they didn't seriously consider Darvish which I would say was a huge mistake.( Also one can look at Darvish and Kuroda as data point comparisons just as easily as Dice K) 
 
2) Money/ The 189 Luxury Line/ Lester- First of all signing Tanaka and Lester should not be mutually exclusive. However, for those all in on a Lester extension( I'd say probably 4 for 80 and a club option for a 100 would be the sort of team friendly deal Lester could reasonably ask for) isn't Beckett a disconcerting comparison ? Not saying that I wouldn't extend him but money and investing in pitchers is an inherently risk proposition. Whether its investing 100 mill plus in Tanaka from 25- 31/32 and/or Lester  for 31- 36 the Red Sox have a ton of money coming off the books in the upcoming years and with young controllable position players expected to step in the rotation would seem logical to reinvest in.
 
3) Unknowns- Last year the Red Sox basically hit on every one of their internal projections excluding baily and hanrahan. That is hardly a given to happen year after year hence the emphasis on depth. Our enviable pitching prospects also are not ready to step into high leverage or high amount of innings this year. We also have no idea what Tanaka's medicals look like or what the Sox internally project him to be.   
 
I just think a large contract to a young potential 2 has been too readily dismissed around here. 
 

absintheofmalaise

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Puffy said:
 
This is where I am at. Investing $150 million in Tanaka doesn't seem like a risk worth taking. The likelihood of Tanaka's value meeting or exceeding the cost seems lower than the likelihood of injury, flameout, or even just mediocrity.  I think the Sox need to seek surplus value where they can and invest top dollars for more proven assets.
All FA pitchers, and position players, are at risk for not performing up to their expected value because of injury. What kind of criteria would you like them to use to meet your proven asset threshold? 
 

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jimbobim said:
First Four Years at 25 AAV opt out option for player( Would take Tanaka to 29 theoretically another long contract could be on the free agent market)
 
then 15 million in the last two years. If he's the lower end of the projection a innings eating number 3 type he probably sticks around for 30 million if he's better and leaves i probably had a pretty good four years for 100 mill in the primes of Pedroia, Lester( should also get an extension),Napoli,Xander , and the tail end of Papi. 
 
130 over six years opt out after year 4 plus 20 mill posting fee= 150 mill investment for a high upside pitching prospect. Expensive but lots of money being cleared. 
 
 
Slow down.  You want a situation where if he is doing good he will opt out of his contract but if he sucks he will stay? 
 

seantoo

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Puffy said:
 
This is where I am at. Investing $150 million in Tanaka doesn't seem like a risk worth taking. The likelihood of Tanaka's value meeting or exceeding the cost seems lower than the likelihood of injury, flameout, or even just mediocrity.  I think the Sox need to seek surplus value where they can and invest top dollars for more proven assets.
Wait, isn't that part of the point of signing IFA?, that they only cost you money and you retain all your prospects too.
 

Puffy

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seantoo said:
Wait, isn't that part of the point of signing IFA?, that they only cost you money and you retain all your prospects too.
 
I'm not sure how this relates to my previous comment (quoted).
 

Doctor G

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Too many pitches already thrown between Rakuten and high school. I would be more than a little suspicious of the attempt by Casey Close to have one physical available to all bidders, and right after you haveTanaka take the physical you send him back to Japan. What if a potential bidder sees something that concerns him in that physical, how do you follow upI guess you could send your doctor to Japan. But with a 1/24 deadline how practical is that?
 

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absintheofmalaise said:
All FA pitchers, and position players, are at risk for not performing up to their expected value because of injury. What kind of criteria would you like them to use to meet your proven asset threshold? 
 
This is a fair question. While all players are naturally at risk of injury or performance decline, to me the threshold would have to be pretty high for contracts in the hundreds of millions, spread over more than half a decade. The success rate on these contracts is so low.  Maybe I'm just too gun shy, but we have only witnessed a handful of such contracts actually working out for the signing team (or couple of handfuls? Cabrera, Cliff Lee, Holliday, Sabathia - and these contracts have some years left). 
 
So yeah, "proven asset" is not really a great framework for such a threshold, given the number of "proven assets" who have failed to live up to large contracts. 
 

jimbobim

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Kershaw is probably the pitcher your most willing to commit to and the Dodgers just got him for 7 at 215. Kershaw Grienke Tanaka would be committing an insane amount of money to the pitching staff never mind a sizable Hanley extension. 
 
The Dodgers can probably be insane but you have to think its the Yankees vs. Some dark horse for Tanaka 
 

koufax37

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Tanaka is not Darvish, and I think is likely more like Kuroda but much younger.  This is still a valuable thing, and something I would happily pay many millions of dollars for.  I don't know that I would go 6/120 (+20) which seems to be where the market is headed.
 
I absolutely want us to try to add him to our team at dollars that make sense, because talent wise he is clearly better than 200 of our regular season innings and very likely one of our playoff starters.  But I don't want to try to outbid the Dodgers for him by any stretch, and am somewhat hesitant to cross the 5/100 level for someone that we don't really know the exact impact and health.
 
However, evaluating and coming up with an expected value of an unknown commodity remains an area of potential competitive advantage and market inefficiencies, and studying as hard as possible if Tanaka's market price is less than his projected value is something I would like our talent evaluators and our bean counters both working on pretty hard, even if I am largely convinced that when the dust settles he will be overpaid by someone else.
 

jimbobim

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6 for 120 plus the 20 for the posting fee is probably where one would feel most comfortable given the risk/reward of Tanaka based on what we know(ie no significant medical question marks and the Red Sox scouts agreeing/disagreeing with the industry that he could be a 2 that resembles a Kuroda 2.0 or a Dan Haren).
 
I think with the Yankees they'd probably be willing to offer 130ish 150 range with the posting fee but I don't think they value him more than Ellsbury however false of a comparison that might be he cost them 154 million.
 
I would say it really comes down to what the Red Sox scouts say/project as they were reported over there at the beginning of last year. 
 

Sampo Gida

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I am wondering now if the Kershaw extension has Lester being more expensive to extend and more likely to test free agency.  If the Red Sox believe that to be the case I could see them making a real effort to sign Tanaka.   I can't see them topping the Dodgers and Yankees in any bid though.  Both teams have more revenue opportunities with Tanaka for the simple reason that they have more empty seats to sell.   Of course, both teams would be looking at a luxury tax on top of whatever they have to pay him, while the Red Sox could likely stay under 189 by dealing a surplus starter, so that may offset their revenue advantage.
 
Obviously, there is some risk.  Lots of innings on an arm at a young age, a declining and average K rate, and a GB pitcher (and Bill James does not like them much for whatever that's worth).  He put up some great numbers in Japan, but the last 3 years were their dead ball era (although the ball bounced back a bit last year) and he pitched in a park that suppressed HR's.  So there is some uncertainty how he performs in the MLB in general, and AL East in particular, although the consensus has him as a #2-# 3 SP'er..
 
I guess it also comes down to how highly the Red Sox value their own pitching prospects.   Pitching prospects tend to be hard to project with a high attrition rate due to injury.  But are they any harder to project than Tanaka and is the injury risk any greater? 
 
Signing Tanaka keeps him out of the Yankees hands, and pretty much ensures the Yankees will not be much of a threat in 2014.  Not saying that would be the Red Sox reason for signing him..
 

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absintheofmalaise said:
All FA pitchers, and position players, are at risk for not performing up to their expected value because of injury. What kind of criteria would you like them to use to meet your proven asset threshold? 
 
Random conjecture!
 
The biggest concern for me with Tanaka is Japanese pitchers see a spike in their walk rates when they come to States.  Happened to Matsuzaka, Darvish, and to a lesser extent to Kuroda.
 

seantoo

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jimbobim said:
Kershaw is probably the pitcher your most willing to commit to and the Dodgers just got him for 7 at 215. Kershaw Grienke Tanaka would be committing an insane amount of money to the pitching staff never mind a sizable Hanley extension. 
 
The Dodgers can probably be insane but you have to think its the Yankees vs. Some dark horse for Tanaka 
The dark horse just may be the Mariners.
 
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Theo swooping in and "stealing" Tanaka from the Yankees -- which is how it would likely play to their often entitled fans -- would make me pretty damn happy. Yanks need arms. If we don't bolster our own rotation with the guy, at least it hurts their dire-ish need to shore up their starting five. Go, Theo, go.
 

jimbobim

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How much would the Cubs have to overpay to beat both NYY and LAA or the rest of the field ? 
 

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jimbobim said:
How much would the Cubs have to overpay to beat both NYY and LAA or the rest of the field ? 
 
$1?
 
I mean, how do we know?  Has Tanaka expressed an interest in "coming to the major leagues and helping to win many World Series titles"?  Or did he just "wish to try my skills at the highest level in the world"?
 
Answer those questions and you've answered your question.
 
Except for the fact that the Yankees are unlikely to be one of the 3 or 4 teams most likely able to win many World Series titles in the next 5-7 years.
 

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Might as well lock the thread.
 
MLBTR
 

Clubs angling to sign Masahiro Tanaka made formal offers by Jan. 16, Nikkan Sports reports (Japanese link). The list of teams includes the Yankees, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, White Sox and Cubs, with nearly all clubs putting together offers worth more than $100MM over six years.
 
The Diamondbacks have made no secret of their pursuit of Tanaka this winter, and according to Nikkan, they've offered him a deal for six years and $120MM.
 
 
 

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