Red Sox re-sign Mitch Moreland for 2 years, 13 M

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
IDK if I am going to put much hope in a 32 year old Mitch Moreland being able to maintain himself better than he ever has before. Considering his career bWAR is 6.9, I think a 2 WAR season is the best we are gonna get from this guy
Agree. I mean getting value is nice, and he'll probably earn the contract, but they need an actual good player to upgrade on paper and it was the easiest position to do so. I highly doubt they are done, but I don't believe they are any better than last year as it stands.
 
Last edited:

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
If they provide good entertainment and win the division, I expect I'll be satisfied. But maybe I'm the only one.
You’re not. If they win the division they’ll at least have a five game series to play. Then take it from there. I’ve seen three more WS titles than I ever thought I would and super teams don’t exist in baseball. I don’t want to say they’ve mortgaged the future to get where they are but they do need to restock and let some stuff burn off he payroll from the last GM. I’m actually quite content going to war with maybe another small move or two and counting on the kids to improve/bounce back.
 

rotundlio

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 8, 2014
323
Moreland's average exit velocity was 89 miles per hour, which is in the 86th percentile. His flyballs and line drives were 95 miles per hour, on average, in the 88th percentile. His average home run traveled 411 feet — 90th percentile — a few inches ahead of Mike Trout and one foot behind Aaron Judge. He "barreled" the ball on 12% of his batted ball events (92nd percentile) and 8.2% of plate appearances (95th percentile, in the middle of Trout, Goldschmidt, Machado, and Gary Sanchez).

Flyball distance data is no longer available via baseballheatmaps.com, but with some help from the Wayback Machine I found that Moreland's average flyball distance placed in the 89th percentile in 2016 (302.86') and 86th percentile in 2015 (297.36') — likewise, in either case, surrounded by a litany of star sluggers.

Moreland had zero "lucky" home runs, according to ESPN's home run tracker, but was tied for 15th in "no-doubters." (The player with the 15th-most home runs last season hit 36.) He had seven "just enoughs," which is about average. Devers had 6, J.D. Martinez 12, and Jay Bruce 18.

In a league that posted its lowest groundball-to-flyball ratio since 2010, Moreland's GB/FB was actually higher than career norms. He posted career highs in walk rate and Oppo%, his lowest strikeout rate since 2012, and cut his popouts in half. Despite this, his .278 BABIP was markedly below average. His "xBABIP," as formulated by FanGraphs, was .308.

Interestingly, he saw the seventh-fewest fastballs and second-fewest sliders among first basemen, as well as the fifth-most changeups and sixth-most curveballs. For his career, he's hit changeups at a 112 wRC+ clip, but in the past two seasons (during which time he's faced the 16th-fewest fastballs of 131 qualified hitters) he's at 56 and 55 wRC+ against changeups, respectively. His career 54 wRC+ against curveballs is, in all likelihood, the hole in his offensive profile.

Prior to injuring a toe on June 13 (and subsequently a knee in compensating for that toe), Moreland had a 128 wRC+ and elite 46% hard contact rate. And let us not forget his career 999 ERA+.

This is why I don't play fantasy baseball. If I did, though, I think I'd rather have Moreland than Hosmer.
 
Last edited:

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,051
Florida
I know you and I differ on Moreland, but I do think he offers more upside than you give him credit for. He hasn't done it over a full season, but the .285/.382/.495, 128 wRC+ he posted prior to breaking his toe last year is that upside. It's just as good as the career years of Alonso and Morrison. I don't know that he can do it over a full year (or two), but I do expect him to outperform his career numbers to some extent due to the fact that Fenway appears to suit him quite nicely. As for a floor, I think the name of the game this offseason is Add More Offense with Power, which is slightly different than Add More Offense. So Moreland's floor has to look something like his 2016, with a .422 SLG and 22 HR. Before 2017, Alonso and Morrison combined had one season of 20+ HR. There is a significant chance of losing power from the 1B position by going with one of those guys, while the difference in ceiling between them and Moreland is minimal, imo.

Now, there are other guys who may be better options, but I don't believe Alonso (or Morrison) is that guy. Duda and Frazier would probably be a marginal upgrade with a little more pop. They also made more money last year than Moreland just signed for. It remains to be seen what their markets will be. (I voted for waiting it out and signing whoever loses out on musical chairs, but you do risk losing out altogether or getting into a bidding war for the last one standing.) Santana is certainly better, but at 4/$60M and a QO? Bruce is not an infielder, but I still think is intriguing depending on his price tag and willingness to play 1B. Even now, if JD Martinez does not come to pass, Bruce (OF/DH) or Frazier (3B/DH) could be a decent option as a rotational piece. You've made it clear you hate the Moreland signing. Whom should they have signed and at what price?
I'm ultimately not too concerned with any small +/- aspect if the homeruns aren't coming in the form of one 30+ type guy to put in the middle of our lineup. Nor a potential losing out possibility for that matter, since at the end of the day I would have been fine taking my chances with handing the job back to Hanley. Especially if it meant avoiding any contracts I wasn't feeling pretty good about having on the books beyond this year (people also keep pointing out that it's *only* $6.5m, but I see it more as an utterly avoidable/non-tradeable/dead-at-that-point $6.5m going towards an already budget crunched 2019 season I'm personally not ready to completely write off the possibility we'll want to be going back under the LT on latter even while attempting to remain competitive).

So yeah, right now I'd prefer we had stayed anti-DD patient and didn't rush into any roster marriages. I like the wait and see aspect in Hosmer/Moose/Bruce, who could all make some sense and be worth the multi year splurge in the right failing to meet contract expectations scenario. I like Morrison more then I liked Alonso as an upside play if his contract stays within 2 guaranteed years, and with the chance he ends up giving you the most offense for your money out anybody else in the field. Definitely prefer Duda over Moreland as well if the money ends up being anywhere remotely close. Adam Lind has gotten pretty much zero speculative play here, but I also liked his roster fit a lot on a 1 year flyer.

No regrets with watching Santana on that contract pass us by, but I'd have taken 1 year of Adams in a platoon with Hanley over 2 years of Moreland.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
It's only May 1, but the early returns on the Moreland signing (and our loose 1B/LF/DH timeshare) look good. After roughly 100-120 PAs worth of playing time, here's how Moreland stacks against all the other options we discussed this past winter.

Cabrera - 150 wRC+
Moreland - 147 (67 PA)
Matt Adams - 141 (59 PA)
Hosmer - 141
Ramirez - 138 (110 PA)
Abreu - 128
Cron - 126
Bour - 118
Alonso - 109
Braun - 107
Santana - 65
Duda - 63
Morrison - 42

Hanley and Moreland are mashing RHP (.396 wOBA and .431 respectively). Again, too early, but both are hitting less well vs. LHP. Makes sense for Mitch, but could be something to watch with Hanley.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
4,785
And in dollar terms, he's earned about 40% of his total contract in one month of part time play.
 

Bosox1528

New Member
Dec 22, 2017
178
Moreland has an xwOBA of .432, which is 20 points higher than his actual wOBA.

He's actually been unlucky so far. And we have him for 5 million a year, and he plays great defense.

While I don't expect him to keep this up, bravo, DD.
 

williams_482

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 1, 2011
391
Moreland has an xwOBA of .432, which is 20 points higher than his actual wOBA.

He's actually been unlucky so far. And we have him for 5 million a year, and he plays great defense.

While I don't expect him to keep this up, bravo, DD.
He's a slow, pull heavy lefty who gets shifted a lot, so exactly the type of player to underperform his xwOBA. Still, he's clearly performing, and those statcast numbers offer at least a faint hope that he won't regress all the way back to his crummy career numbers.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
He's had a rough go of it his last 9 games. He's in a 3/31 slump that saw his OPS drop from 1.000 to .885.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2007
1,083
Pittsboro NC
I posted these numbers on 5/29 (updated now) in the Lineup thread:

Mitch Moreland
2018 (on 5/29 / on 6/16)
vs RHP (98 PA) 195 wRC+ / (149 PA) 153 wRC+
vs LHP (33 PA) 122 wRC+ / (48 PA) 87 wRC+
March/April 148 wRC+
May 206 wRC+ / 172 wRC+
June 70 wRC+

Career
vs RHP 107 wRC+
vs LHP 81 wRC+
March/April 116 wRC+
May 126 wRC+
June 103 wRC+
July 68 wRC+
August 116 wRC+
Sept/Oct 65 wRC+

What are we seeing? Since my original post on 5/29, Mitch hit the skids. He went 1-9 with a double for the last three days of May, dropping that hefty May wRC+ by 34 points. In June he's slashing .191/.283/.340/.623 with a 70 wRC+.
We knew the regression had to be coming, and it's come hard. In his career, May has been his best month (check for 2018) and March/April have also been good (check again). He's been average in June (not so much this year) and wretched in July (uh-oh) with a bounce-back in August and back to wretched in September.
He's definitely been exposed since the Hanley DFA, but with just 15 PA against lefties since 5/29 that doesn't explain everything. He started 27 out of 49 games pre-DFA, 18 out of 21 since. He's been over-exposed and he's regressed.
If I were the manager, I'd put Mitch back into a straight platoon, with Swihart getting the starts against LHP (unless they send one of the 8 relievers back to Pawtucket and bring Sam Travis back up). If that doesn't sit Mitch enough, I might give Brock an occasional start at 1B against RHP. And I would buy JDM a first baseman's mitt and start teaching him the position.
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
19,475
Somewhere
It's only a third of a season but Moreland's batting eye seems to have improved on his career numbers. Not a ton, but enough. Should buttress the uptick in his walk rate even when his BABIP comes back down.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
He's now tied for 3rd with Brandon Belt for 1b in wRC+ with 152.

If you had Max Muncy and Jesus Aguilar also being in the top 5 before the season started, you should win a Coke.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Last 34 games: .226/.316/.313 on a .281 BAbip in 133 PA.
Last 17 games: .179/.273/.196 on a .213 BAbip in 66 PA.

That includes a good 7 game stretch from June 17th-24th where he hit .444/.500/.741.

I'd guess he bounces back soon, as theoretically, he should be exposed to lefties less with Steve Pearce on the team. Of course, Moreland is also on pace for a career year so it could just be regression to the norm. He struggled in the middle part of the season last year as well.
 

catomatic

thinks gen turgidson is super mean!!!
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
3,393
Park Slope, Brooklyn
Am I the only one who heard Sutcliffe or Ross talking about Moreland's knee last night - and saying that he might need surgery? It was later innings, but I can't remember exactly when. No one in the booth added to the comment but it sounded like a dropped morsel of inside knowledge that pricked up my ears and put a pit in my stomach. Were they talking about someone else, did I miss the antecedent? Was it Nunez? Wasn't sure...
 

Rwillh11

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
225
Am I the only one who heard Sutcliffe or Ross talking about Moreland's knee last night - and saying that he might need surgery? It was later innings, but I can't remember exactly when.
I think this was during extras, but I heard it as well. They were definitely talking about Moreland but then they didn't expand on the comment at all. I assume any surgery would be after the season, but doesn't exactly bode well for a resurgence at the plate.
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
26,997
Newton
Not sure Sutcliffe is speaking from a place of inside knowledge but if he is more seriously hurt it could also explain the Kinsler deal.
 

catomatic

thinks gen turgidson is super mean!!!
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
3,393
Park Slope, Brooklyn
I think this was during extras, but I heard it as well. They were definitely talking about Moreland but then they didn't expand on the comment at all. I assume any surgery would be after the season, but doesn't exactly bode well for a resurgence at the plate.
Yeah, that's why I was disappointed to hear it - and bewildered that they didn't elaborate at all.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Moreland's had a pretty interesting career for the Sox.
This year:
Up until June 5th: 45 games, 161 PA, .310/.373/.628, .340 BAbip
Since June 6th: 75 games, 279 PA, .205/.290/.320, .254 BAbip.

Last year:
Up until 6/13: 61 games, 249 PA, .285/.382/.495, .349 BAbip
6/14 to end of season: 88 games, 327 PA, .218/.284/.405, .230 BAbip.


He just falls apart sometime in June. You'd think he'd do better in the 2nd half because the Sox acquire a bat to platoon him but that's not the case. A lot was made about his performance in the 2nd half last year but he's been even worse this year. During his struggles last year, he still hit for about the same amount of power, his ISO going from .200 to .187. This years struggles, he just stopped hitting for power completely with his ISO dropping from .318 to .115. Part of the huge drop is to be expected, as a .300+ ISO is insanely hard to keep, but you'd expect him to be around .180-.200, not .100-.120. For the year, his numbers are about the same though. He just got there a little differently.

Luckily, a few weeks after his struggles began, Pearce was acquired and Bradley started to mash. If we had any other options, I'd question if Moreland was a lock for the playoff roster but we don't.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,348
Moreland's had a pretty interesting career for the Sox.
This year:
Up until June 5th: 45 games, 161 PA, .310/.373/.628, .340 BAbip
Since June 6th: 75 games, 279 PA, .205/.290/.320, .254 BAbip.

Last year:
Up until 6/13: 61 games, 249 PA, .285/.382/.495, .349 BAbip
6/14 to end of season: 88 games, 327 PA, .218/.284/.405, .230 BAbip.


He just falls apart sometime in June. You'd think he'd do better in the 2nd half because the Sox acquire a bat to platoon him but that's not the case. A lot was made about his performance in the 2nd half last year but he's been even worse this year. During his struggles last year, he still hit for about the same amount of power, his ISO going from .200 to .187. This years struggles, he just stopped hitting for power completely with his ISO dropping from .318 to .115. Part of the huge drop is to be expected, as a .300+ ISO is insanely hard to keep, but you'd expect him to be around .180-.200, not .100-.120. For the year, his numbers are about the same though. He just got there a little differently.

Luckily, a few weeks after his struggles began, Pearce was acquired and Bradley started to mash. If we had any other options, I'd question if Moreland was a lock for the playoff roster but we don't.
Apparently opposing pitchers keep losing "the book" on him at the beginning of every season but find it again in mid June every year.
Weird stuff......although I did scroll back a bit here and there was discussion on a knee injury sometime after the All Star break.... if it's the case and he's been playing injured again, it would explain his struggles... again.....
But again.... if he's been injured... I'd rather just see Swihart out there! Or start Devers getting reps at 1B. It seems like he's a guy who hurts himself but not enough to really put him on the DL, but clearly enough that it affects his play. And it appears like it's an annual event! Same injury last year too.
 

Humphrey

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2010
3,163
Holt's become a more dependable hitter than Moreland, although I think Moreland will be on the roster as well.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
Mitch Moreland has basically been Mitch Moreland this year.
.244/.320/.434 wRC+ 99 vs a career.251/.318/.439 wRC+98.

I didn't like the signing at the time but he has been better than the other low tier off season options like Morrison, Duda and Alonso. He solidified the position when Hanley wasn't hitting and ran with it for a few months. Good thing they haven't needed to rely on him in the 2nd half when they found him a suitable dance partner.
 

mdipalma78

New Member
Jul 19, 2005
131
Moreland's had a pretty interesting career for the Sox.
This year:
Up until June 5th: 45 games, 161 PA, .310/.373/.628, .340 BAbip
Since June 6th: 75 games, 279 PA, .205/.290/.320, .254 BAbip.

Last year:
Up until 6/13: 61 games, 249 PA, .285/.382/.495, .349 BAbip
6/14 to end of season: 88 games, 327 PA, .218/.284/.405, .230 BAbip.


He just falls apart sometime in June. You'd think he'd do better in the 2nd half because the Sox acquire a bat to platoon him but that's not the case. A lot was made about his performance in the 2nd half last year but he's been even worse this year. During his struggles last year, he still hit for about the same amount of power, his ISO going from .200 to .187. This years struggles, he just stopped hitting for power completely with his ISO dropping from .318 to .115. Part of the huge drop is to be expected, as a .300+ ISO is insanely hard to keep, but you'd expect him to be around .180-.200, not .100-.120. For the year, his numbers are about the same though. He just got there a little differently.

Luckily, a few weeks after his struggles began, Pearce was acquired and Bradley started to mash. If we had any other options, I'd question if Moreland was a lock for the playoff roster but we don't.
I don't have it handy, but when he was re-signed I took a closer look at his performance in 2017, and found that it wasn't as simple as a first half - second half split. When he fouled the ball(s) off his foot in June, he kept playing and his performance was awful for (IIRC) about two months, then he had his best month in August.

He has been terrible in July and September both seasons though, so there's that...
 

Humphrey

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2010
3,163
Who will get yanked from the lineup when the Sox face an NL team at an NL park in the World Series, especially if a righty is going? If you have Moreland and Leon in there it's like pitching to a 6 man batting order.

(As long as the Sox ACTUALLY encounter this problem no one will complain too much; they'll figure it out!)
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
5,013
Pittsburgh, PA
Who will get yanked from the lineup when the Sox face an NL team at an NL park in the World Series, especially if a righty is going? If you have Moreland and Leon in there it's like pitching to a 6 man batting order.

(As long as the Sox ACTUALLY encounter this problem no one will complain too much; they'll figure it out!)
Ahead of yourself :)

At the beginning of the month in Atlanta, the Sox rolled out Moreland twice (against 2 RHP) and Pearce once (against a LHP), with Pearce pinch-hitting against LHRP Venters in the 6 run 8th inning while the Sox were down 7-3 with zero outs and runners on second and third.
 

tonyarmasjr

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 12, 2010
1,120
His pre-June/post-June splits are a strange phenomenon. It's almost like they should just park him on the DL for all of July, no matter what, and see if he can come back strong in the second half. I can't believe it's just a matter of the league making adjustments to him. There's got to be some physical breakdown, but how do you avoid that? When he's going so well in the first half, you don't want him to sit. And it's not like he's been an overused ironman this year: he's at 445 PA, basically playing 2/3 of the time. If we could get that early season performance in the 2nd half and into the postseason, instead, I think we'd all be ecstatic.

In comparison to the other options this past offseason:
Moreland - 445 PA, 15 HR, 98 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR

Santana - 652 PA, 23 HR, 109 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR
Duda - 367 PA, 14 HR, 97 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR
Hosmer - 650 PA, 17 HR, 93 wRC+, -0.3 fWAR
Alonso - 551 PA, 23 HR, 92 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR
Morrison - 359 PA, 15 HR, 74 wRC+, -0.7 fWAR
Frazier - 452 PA, 18 HR, 93 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR (due largely to playing 3B)

Abreu - 553 PA, 22 HR, 114 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR
Belt - 456 PA, 14 HR, 107 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR
Bour - 493 PA, 20 HR, 109 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
Would this pattern make sense if the knee were an old, ongoing problem that improves just enough each offseason to let him play effectively for the first few months, but that always catches up to him after a certain amount of in-season stress?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,689
Maine
Would this pattern make sense if the knee were an old, ongoing problem that improves just enough each offseason to let him play effectively for the first few months, but that always catches up to him after a certain amount of in-season stress?
It could, but there's no indication that his knee has been an ongoing problem. In fact, he's had a lot of injury issues in his career, but none that appear to be chronic (or even repetitive). Last year was the broken toe. He had elbow surgery at the start of the 2015 season. In mid-June 2014, he sustained an ankle injury that kept him out the rest of the year. In June 2013, he pulled his right hamstring. In June 2012, it was his left hamstring. Seems to be a lot of June in his injury history, but not knee problems.
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
19,475
Somewhere
At first glance, it appears that Moreland was the second best free agent signing at 1B last year. And I don't think people would have been terribly happy with Santana at his price.