Red Sox Post Season roster-ALDS- 2018 edition

[Al Zarilla]

I dont think pitching works this way. Baseball history is littered with guys who pitched CGSO's after having shit in the pen, and guys who got lit up despite having their "best warmup ever."

Schilling said just that “worst bullpen I ever had” after he pitched Game 6.

 

[Reverend]

If that is the case, then I wonder if there is some potential here. It's not a question of deception at all, and I doubt it's an experiment that should be run in the postseason... but would Steven Wright actually be an incredible candidate to be an opener?

My logic is basically this:

• Wright should be able to handle a pretty significant workload. I'd imagine 1-3 innings twice in 5 days is not too much, and I wonder if it might be possible for him to go three times in 5 days.
• The knuckleball is notorious for screwing with hitters. When in the days of Wake, there was endless talk of how hard it was for hitters to transition from trying to deal with the knuckleball to dealing with gas out of the bullpen. Starting the game with a knuckleballer should theoretically have a similar effect while guaranteeing you bring him for a clean inning, thus mitigating the problems of bringing in a knuckleballer out of the bullpen in a situation with runners on.
• Wright doesn't seem to require his own personal catcher.
• Ideally this gives the team an opportunity to evaluate how the knuckle is tumbling on a given day before committing to Wright. If he were the real starter, you can't exactly scratch him just because the weather/feel is off that day. As an opener though you can either just decide to skip him and start with the "real" starter if the knuckler is off or replace with a different bullpen opener for an inning or two. Of course, this would require the team to develop a reliable way of measuring likely knuckleball effectiveness based on warmup/pregame stuff, but I don't see why that wouldn't be realistic.

Am I missing something critical that would stop this from being a reasonable idea?

My understanding is that part of the power of the knuckle baller, assuming he doesn't go the distance, is the radical change between him and the pitcher's he's juxtaposed with. To the extent that's the case, I'm not sure it matters much if you start him or bring him in for long relief if the starter doesn't have it; you still get the effect.

If so, that's a lot of work. On the flip side, though, if Wright really is the only guy Cora trusts in the pen (right now) and that was a message he was sending, then if you have him in the bullpen, you have the flexibility of using him in the long relief situation or the high leverage inning, depending what comes up.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I was at Fenway last night and since I know most of the security there and where stuff is I can usually go where I want.

I know folks in Baseball Analytics and stopped by for a few minutes where I saw a big whiteboard with the title "PS ROSTER". I think PS = PostSeason, but maybe the rest of it will tell us for sure.

DO NOT REPEAT THIS INFORMATION OUTSIDE OF THIS BOARD!!! I should not have been allowed back there, I could get in trouble, so could anyone who let me go to there.

Spoiler: Do not share this information!

SP1.
SP2.
SP3.
SP4.

RP1.
RP2.
RP3.
RP4.
RP5.
RP6.
RP7.
RP8.
RP9.?

C1.
C2.
1B.
2B.
3B.
SS.
UT1.
UT2.
UT3.?
LF.
CF.
RF.
DH.

So I think we can slow down with the projections since we now have a good feeling what the inside is planning at this stage.

 

[AB in DC]

I know you were joking, but 12-13 pitchers would be a bit of a surprise since most of us were expecting 11.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I actually made one change from what I saw, for deniability. You caught it.

 

[williams_482]

For what it is worth, Wright has an interesting split between LHB/RHD. A bit better BA/OBP against right handers, but better
SLG against left handers.

View attachment 23226

This year's splits don't really tell us anything, but we have a lot of data to tell us that knuckleballs as a group tend to have reverse platoon splits, and Wright does follow this general trend.

Wright, in his career, has allowed a .299 wOBA in 609 PAs against LHB, and a .319 wOBA in 804 PAs against RHB. Tim Wakefield, as a comparison, had a similar .307, .332 reverse split.

In short, Wright is probably our best "lefty" option out of the 'pen this postseason.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Start a poll..... Porcello or EdRod as the "no.3" in the ALDS? Chances are that only 3 SP's will be used.

 

[patoaflac]

EdRod, without doubt.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Think it depends on the opposition. Yankees favors Rodriguez. A’s, not so much.

 

[YTF]

Three catchers on any roster is a hell of a luxury, but can the team afford the luxury of carrying these three particular catchers? Swihart has some versatility, but I honestly don't see him being any more valuable than Holt or Nunez right now. IMO they both need to be on the post season roster and if push comes to shove, despite his limited play so far, I think the question becomes is Phillips more valuable on the ALDS roster than Swihart? I think Swihart's value is strictly as a catcher because Leon and Vasquez are the two guy's most likely to be pinch hit for, especially late in a tight game. He also affords you the opportunity to pinch hit for BOTH Leon and Vasquez in extra innings should the need arise, but do you tie up a spot on the roster exclusively for that reason?

 

[joe dokes]

Start a poll..... Porcello or EdRod as the "no.3" in the ALDS? Chances are that only 3 SP's will be used.

Why only 3? (Assume it goes more than 3 games for the exercise...)
1..2...day off....3.....4....day off...5
Game 1 pitcher would only have 3 days rest (2, day off and 3) to pitch in game 4.
I don't think that will happen.

 

[benhogan]

I imagine they're free to leave the starter unannounced until the official lineups are exchanged at home plate right before the game begins. But unless they've got secret bullpens hidden away somewhere, there's usually plenty of clues to be had during pregame warm-ups. I don't think there's any way to surprise the opposition or trick them into starting, say, a lefty-heavy lineup then springing a lefty starter on them.

NM

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Why only 3? (Assume it goes more than 3 games for the exercise...)
1..2...day off....3.....4....day off...5
Game 1 pitcher would only have 3 days rest (2, day off and 3) to pitch in game 4.
I don't think that will happen.

Dyuh! It'll be Sale W. Price W.. Starter number 3 W and series over.

 

[Patek's 3 Dingers]

My understanding is that part of the power of the knuckle baller, assuming he doesn't go the distance, is the radical change between him and the pitcher's he's juxtaposed with. To the extent that's the case, I'm not sure it matters much if you start him or bring him in for long relief if the starter doesn't have it; you still get the effect.

If so, that's a lot of work. On the flip side, though, if Wright really is the only guy Cora trusts in the pen (right now) and that was a message he was sending, then if you have him in the bullpen, you have the flexibility of using him in the long relief situation or the high leverage inning, depending what comes up.

I've often heard about hitters freaking out if they bat against a power pitch and a knuckleballer in the same game or even in consecutive games, but I doubt if it's true. If it was, hitting 65 mph pitches in batting practice should screw up batters for the game.

If Sale could mix in a 70-mph knuckleball, then that would be a tough adjustment.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I've often heard about hitters freaking out if they bat against a power pitch and a knuckleballer in the same game or even in consecutive games, but I doubt if it's true. If it was, hitting 65 mph pitches in batting practice should screw up batters for the game.

This is why BP is usually thrown from a raised platform in front of the mound. It might be 65-75mph, but it gets to the hitter as quickly as a 90mph pitch from the mound.

 

[effectivelywild]

I've often heard about hitters freaking out if they bat against a power pitch and a knuckleballer in the same game or even in consecutive games, but I doubt if it's true. If it was, hitting 65 mph pitches in batting practice should screw up batters for the game.

If Sale could mix in a 70-mph knuckleball, then that would be a tough adjustment.

Well, fangraphs did a study and this article: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/8/2/12346524/steven-wright-knuckleball references it as well. The beyond the box score article actually checked to see if the knuckleball affects swing planes or messes with the batter's eye and it doesn't appear to. Nevertheless, I can't imagine that its easy to go from regular pitching to knuckleball to back to regular pitching.

I don't think thats enough though for us to want Sale to work on a knuckleball.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Cora said on WEEI today that they will likely carry all 3 catchers.

 

[effectivelywild]

Three catchers on any roster is a hell of a luxury, but can the team afford the luxury of carrying these three particular catchers? Swihart has some versatility, but I honestly don't see him being any more valuable than Holt or Nunez right now. IMO they both need to be on the post season roster and if push comes to shove, despite his limited play so far, I think the question becomes is Phillips more valuable on the ALDS roster than Swihart? I think Swihart's value is strictly as a catcher because Leon and Vasquez are the two guy's most likely to be pinch hit for, especially late in a tight game. He also affords you the opportunity to pinch hit for BOTH Leon and Vasquez in extra innings should the need arise, but do you tie up a spot on the roster exclusively for that reason?

While I agree with you that having these three catchers on the post-season roster might be excessive, Leon hasn't had a hit since Aug 23rd. If he continues with that, having an extra catcher for the ALDS may actually be worthwhile.

 

[patoaflac]

While I agree with you that having these three catchers on the post-season roster might be excessive, Leon hasn't had a hit since Aug 23rd. If he continues with that, having an extra catcher for the ALDS may actually be worthwhile.

The problem is that all three are terrible hitters, they are redundant. I don´t like it.
Other thing I don´t like is Nuñez over Devers (if Devers is healing an injury OK) in the last few games. Devers ain´t Brooks Robinson, but Nuñez is terrible and both are so so hitters, but Devers could decide things with the long ball.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

The problem is that all three are terrible hitters, they are redundant. I don´t like it.

It's all about late-inning adjustments. The more catchers you have, the more free you are to PH for any one of them at any given time if the situation demands it. YMMV as to whether that benefit outweighs using up a roster spot.

 

[patoaflac]

It's all about late-inning adjustments. The more catchers you have, the more free you are to PH for any one of them at any given time if the situation demands it. YMMV as to whether that benefit outweighs using up a roster spot.

That´s the problem, the bad use (from my point of view) of a roster spot.

 

[effectivelywild]

That´s the problem, the bad use (from my point of view) of a roster spot.

Ultimately, its tough to know what to do with that last roster spot though, because the odds that it will be that useful are small, but potentially critical. So I guess you have to decide which scenario you think is more likely---needing an extra reliever because the pitching has collapsed, needing a pinch-hitting/running/defensive sub, or being able to freely PH for catchers in close/late or extra innings.

 

[patoaflac]

The problem is that all three are terrible hitters, they are redundant. I don´t like it.
Other thing I don´t like is Nuñez over Devers (if Devers is healing an injury OK) in the last few games. Devers ain´t Brooks Robinson, but Nuñez is terrible and both are so so hitters, but Devers could decide things with the long ball.

And there's Nuñez in the second inning of today´s game. That was an error I wouldn´t have made in little league without being benched. Pathetic.

 

[YTF]

Ultimately, its tough to know what to do with that last roster spot though, because the odds that it will be that useful are small, but potentially critical. So I guess you have to decide which scenario you think is more likely---needing an extra reliever because the pitching has collapsed, needing a pinch-hitting/running/defensive sub, or being able to freely PH for catchers in close/late or extra innings.

But where's the value in pinch hitting one shitty catcher for another?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

But where's the value in pinch hitting one shitty catcher for another?

You don't pinch hit a shitty catcher for another. You pinch hit one of your other hitters (Moreland/Pearce, Holt, Nunez/Devers) then put one of the catchers in for defensive. Maybe double-switch if necessary to keep the pinch hitter in the game.

 

[AB in DC]

Bottom line is that we're talking about the 25th man on the roster. If not Vazquez, then who? Neither Philips nor Lin are fast enough to play the Dave Roberts role. So it's either Vazquez or some reliever who would only pitch in a blowout.

 

[YTF]

You don't pinch hit a shitty catcher for another. You pinch hit one of your other hitters (Moreland/Pearce, Holt, Nunez/Devers) then put one of the catchers in for defensive. Maybe double-switch if necessary to keep the pinch hitter in the game.

In theory no, but other than an emergency situation when do you use that third catcher? We're talking ADLS in this thread, short five game series. I would rather see another position player/better PH option should you have the odd 13 plus inning game or find yourself down 0-2 in the series.

 

[Cuzittt]

And who would that person be? Tzu-Wei Lin? Brandon Phillips?

Because... Those are really your other choices for hitters.

 

[joe dokes]

And there's Nuñez in the second inning of today´s game. That was an error I wouldn´t have made in little league without being benched. Pathetic.

This isn't little league.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

And who would that person be? Tzu-Wei Lin? Brandon Phillips?

Because... Those are really your other choices for hitters.

Exactly.

For what it's worth, Brock Holt and Blake Swihart are tied for the team lead in pinch hits with five each. Swihart leads in pinch hit appearances with 18. It would appear that Cora has some level of confidence/comfort with Swihart off the bench.

 

[YTF]

And who would that person be? Tzu-Wei Lin? Brandon Phillips?

Because... Those are really your other choices for hitters.

Having the choices simply laid out like that I guess there really isn't a decent option. Phillips is an established vet, but there just isn't enough based on this season to determine exactly what he might have left to offer or justify placing him on the roster and Lin isn't enough of a difference maker to get a shot over guys that have been on the roster all season. It's just difficult to imagine three catchers who offer so little offensively being on the roster, but Swihart may be better suited to move around in the field should that odd 13 plus inning game present itself.

 

[patoaflac]

This isn't little league.

Yep, Nuñez error would have been a disgrace in a little league game.

 

[patoaflac]

This isn't little league.

Yep, Nuñez error would have been a disgrace in a little league game.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

I am ok with them taking all 3 catchers, if Devers is also on the roster. I know he has yet to be what we hoped for, but his power is real, and they need power bats off the bench.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

I am ok with them taking all 3 catchers, if Devers is also on the roster. I know he has yet to be what we hoped for, but his power is real, and they need power bats off the bench.

I agree. It’s anecdotal, but Devers has hit some clutch late-game home runs already in his career and has the bat speed needed to turn around some high-velocity fastballs, of which the Sox will be seeing plenty out of the bullpen regardless of who they end up playing. He’s the type of player whose value to a team in the playoffs is more than his value was/is during the regular season.

 

[patoaflac]

I agree. It’s anecdotal, but Devers has hit some clutch late-game home runs already in his career and has the bat speed needed to turn around some high-velocity fastballs, of which the Sox will be seeing plenty out of the bullpen regardless of who they end up playing. He’s the type of player whose value to a team in the playoffs is more than his value was/is during the regular season.

Devers should start every game.

 

[effectivelywild]

Having the choices simply laid out like that I guess there really isn't a decent option. Phillips is an established vet, but there just isn't enough based on this season to determine exactly what he might have left to offer or justify placing him on the roster and Lin isn't enough of a difference maker to get a shot over guys that have been on the roster all season. It's just difficult to imagine three catchers who offer so little offensively being on the roster, but Swihart may be better suited to move around in the field should that odd 13 plus inning game present itself.

It may also allow Cora to be more aggressive with PH for the starting catcher with a non-catcher, because then you don't have to worry about the "what if the backup catcher gets injured and now you don't have anyone who can catch" scenario that often seems to be the excuse for letting a poor-hitting catcher stay in the game in a high-leverage at-bat.

 

[YTF]

It may also allow Cora to be more aggressive with PH for the starting catcher with a non-catcher, because then you don't have to worry about the "what if the backup catcher gets injured and now you don't have anyone who can catch" scenario that often seems to be the excuse for letting a poor-hitting catcher stay in the game in a high-leverage at-bat.

See that was one of my big concerns, sort of like a catch 22 situation. Using one of those other bats leaves a shitty hitting catcher to PH later in the game. But as was pointed out, what better option is there?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I think Devers should start every game too but that's just personal preference. He hasn't been any better than Nunez, but he's also a bigger part of our future so I think he should get the starts by default when the other options aren't materially better.

Re: Lin, I doubt he makes the team and he's not exactly Dave Roberts, but he can be used to pinch run and he does offer a defensive upgrade in late innings at a few positions, though I can't see him replacing X.

Also really hoping for Bobby Poyner to finish the season strong and land a spot on the playoff roster. He's probably the only guy in the bullpen you can trust not to walk someone in half his appearances. Brasier has been pretty good too, but he's had some issues in the distant past and SSS issues since. There will also be Eovaldi.

Sometimes you just need a MR to come in and throw strikes. We have far too many guys with BB/9 over 4 and Kimbrel+Barnes are locks if healthy. That leaves Hembree and Kelly on the bubble and given recent performance, I could see them being left off the playoff roster. Ditto Brandon Workman who has 6bb/5k in his last 6ip.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

See that was one of my big concerns, sort of like a catch 22 situation. Using one of those other bats leaves a shitty hitting catcher to PH later in the game. But as was pointed out, what better option is there?

Who are they going to pinch hit for other than the catchers, tho? Outside of Pearce, their isn't really an offensive upgrade to be had pinch hitting except at the C spot. It matters more in the WS.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

for all those wanting Devers - what if he blows a game with an error? For example, last night a close game was ruined because of an error (ironically by Nunez - but that was a fluke for him at 3rd).

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

for all those wanting Devers - what if he blows a game with an error? For example, last night a close game was ruined because of an error (ironically by Nunez - but that was a fluke for him at 3rd).

Yeah, what if he does?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

for all those wanting Devers - what if he blows a game with an error? For example, last night a close game was ruined because of an error (ironically by Nunez - but that was a fluke for him at 3rd).

What if Devers wins a game with a HR? What if Nunez loses a game swinging on ball 4 and grounding into an out?

I want Devers because I think he's pretty much a wash with Nunez in overall value and Devers is the future.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

^it's not about the future in the playoffs, it's who will most likely help win the game now.

regardless Nunez's knee may make the decision for the team.

Ian Browne (@IanMBrowne)
Nunez won't play until the start of the homestand. Mookie will play the outfield this weekend.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

I really don't think Nunez is that much better than Devers defensively to justify starting him all the time. I would start Devers against at least all RH SPs.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I really don't think Nunez is that much better than Devers defensively to justify starting him all the time. I would start Devers against at least all RH SPs.

The problem with this is that Nunez has one of the most consistent reverse splits in MLB. It's bigger some years than others, but the last time he hit LHP better than RHP was 2012. If you start him just against LHP, you're getting the worst of him.

EDIT: OTOH, it's true that if you start Devers against LHP you're really getting the worst of him. So there's that.

 

[benhogan]

My roster:
C- Leon, Vazquez, Swihart
1B- Moreland, Pearce
2B- Kinsler, Holt
SS- Bogaerts
3B- Devers, Nunez (if injured, Lin?)
OF- Benintendi, Bradley, Betts
DH- Martinez
SP- Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez
RP- Kimbrel, Barnes, Workman, Poyner, Brasier, Wright, Eovaldi

I think its a dogfight between Poyner, Workman, Kelly and Hembree for the last 2 spots in the pen.

I'd like to see Cora bring starters out early and work the middle of his pen like its the playoffs. Mix and match. Rest Kimbrel and Brasier, maybe 1 game in each series to keep sharp.

It's a bit late for auditions BUT I'd like to see Cora bring in Poyner most nights now. Have him face 1 LHH to see if he can be a 6th or 7th inning LOOGY. Brantley or have him turn Ramirez around when we play Cleveland. Chris Davis when we play the Orioles. Didi when we play the Yanks.

Kelly since June 1 has been terrible (almost 4 months). Hembree has been terrible for 7 weeks. Neither has been really effective vs. RHH so there is no benefit in a situational match-up . Have to think (hope) Barnes terrible end of the season was due to a lingering injury? Would like to see him every other night to face 1-2 RHHs the rest of the way.

 

[Ale Xander]

I have soured on Nunez, I would go with:


C: Leon, Vasquez
1B/DH/PH: JDM, Moreland, Pearce
2B: Kinsler
SS: Bogaerts
3B: Devers
UT/INJ/PR: Holt, Swihart, Lin
OF: 3B's
---
SP: Sale, Price, Porcello
SP/LR: Erod, Wright, Eovaldi
CL: Kimbrel
SU: Brasier, Barnes.Workman
LY: Poyner

 

[AB in DC]

I just posted this in the other thread, but the Sox have six relievers who have been below replacement level (per fWAR) over the second half of the season. And that doesn't even count Drew Pomeranz.

The only remotely competent relief pitchers since the ASB break have been:

Brasier
Kimbrel
Velazquez (!)
Kelly (!!)
Eovaldi
Poyner
Wright

Other than swapping in Barnes for either Velazquez or Kelly (assuming that Barnes is healthy again), I think that's your playoff bullpen.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I have soured on Nunez, I would go with:

C: Leon, Vasquez
1B/DH/PH: JDM, Moreland, Pearce
2B: Kinsler
SS: Bogaerts
3B: Devers
UT/INJ/PR: Holt, Swihart, Lin
OF: 3B's
---
SP: Sale, Price, Porcello
SP/LR: Erod, Wright, Eovaldi
CL: Kimbrel
SU: Brasier, Barnes.Workman
LY: Poyner

Soured on Nunez because of that one error the other night? Or other reasons? Devers has made 22 errors in 309 chances at 3B this year, which is 1 error every 14 chances; Nunez 3 in 104, or 1 in 34.7 chances. Even last night, Devers made a bad throw to first on a routine play that Swihart bailed him out on with a nice pick. Cora loves Nunez anyway, probably kind of just tolerates Devers. To me, Nunez is a no doubter for October, assuming he’s healthy. Actually, I don’t care for Nunez either, just that he’s the lesser of two evils right now.