Red Sox Payroll and Luxury Tax 2018

[grimshaw]

I find the attitude toward Nunez surprising. He still is the same hitter as we had in 2017, and has shown signs of recovering those skills.

Steamer has him as being worth about a win from now until the end of the season, so it's possible though that is based on him getting 250 more at bats. I'm not sure that happens with Holt playing this well.

But he brings no other tools right now. His BsR is -5 which is twice as bad as the next guy - Moreland and 3rd worst in baseball. In half a season that's more than 7 runs worse than each of his previous two seasons. Some of that is just poor base running, but his speed also hasn't come back to where he is a big threat which was a really useful part of his game.

A sub .300 obp guy who is noticeably slower than he was last year and a defensive liability really brings nothing other than keeping Holt fresh. If this were May or if he were an asset vs. lefties I'd be patient, but it's been half a season.

The deal seemed like a coup this off season , but maybe other teams passed for a reason.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Other than trading their #2 or #3 starter (who happen to be our GM binkies), I really don't see anyone who can be moved to create substantial salary space.

Moving Pomeranz would free up about $4.25M, and Nunez another $2M - if the opportunity to better allocate those funds elsewhere presents itself, but other than that, everyone else making significant money is either key to the success of this team, or is a sunk cost.

 

[bellowthecat]

I find the attitude toward Nunez surprising. He still is the same hitter as we had in 2017, and has shown signs of recovering those skills.

His IFFB% rate has jumped all the way up to 26.5%, worst in the majors. He's currently striking out at a career high of 17%. His HR/FB% has fallen back around his career average of 7.6% after sitting around 10% the last 2 seasons. Doesn't really seem like the same hitter to me. Nobody is going to take his contract. That plus all the other things he's been terrible at (baserunning and defense) has me ready to pull the plug now. I'd really like to see Lin get some every day starts there instead.

 

[MikeM]

Based on Cot's numbers, they only had about $1.6M in space left before the Pearce move. The dollar amount coming with Pearce and the resulting salary responsibility the Sox have seems too close to be a coincidence.

Yeah, as somebody who was previously questioning where we stood internally that specific # is pretty much as close to to that type of confirmation as it gets.

Moving Pomeranz would free up about $4.25M, and Nunez another $2M - if the opportunity to better allocate those funds elsewhere presents itself, but other than that, everyone else making significant money is either key to the success of this team, or is a sunk cost.

Still think you have to at least hypothetically add Bradley's rough $3m to that limited list. Especially after just adding a potential replacement piece in-house (which avoids forcing JDM into full time OF play), and with Bradley's annual hot stretch conveniently timing up with a sell high possibility in the event DD ends up aiming at a bigger fish.

 

[joe dokes]

Yeah, as somebody who was previously questioning where we stood internally that specific # is pretty much as close to to that type of confirmation as it gets.
Still think you have to at least hypothetically add Bradley's rough $3m to that limited list. Especially after just adding a potential replacement piece in-house (which avoids forcing JDM into full time OF play), and with Bradley's annual hot stretch conveniently timing up with a sell high possibility in the event DD ends up aiming at a bigger fish.

Even putting aside whether its a good idea at all to trade Bradley, the "sell-high" concept is absurd -- for any player. The Red Sox dont play in some sort of time warp matrix where no other GMs have access to information about Bradley.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Yeah, as somebody who was previously questioning where we stood internally that specific # is pretty much as close to to that type of confirmation as it gets.



Still think you have to at least hypothetically add Bradley's rough $3m to that limited list. Especially after just adding a potential replacement piece in-house (which avoids forcing JDM into full time OF play), and with Bradley's annual hot stretch conveniently timing up with a sell high possibility in the event DD ends up aiming at a bigger fish.

I was going to mention Bradley as a side note, but forgot. I don't think you move Bradley right now regardless, unless you're offered a viable, cost effective, replacement - and why would anyone do that deal?

If Bradley is moved, you're locked into Betts/Benny in RF/CF, and either Pearce or JDM in left. Losing JBJ would cost a lot of flexibility around guys needing days off or getting injured, and I think Pearce is best utilized as a compliment to Bradley/Benny/Moreland - not as a replacement for one of them.

I think the time to move Bradley is this offseason. While he may prove to be a valuable asset at his higher price tag ($9M?), the Red Sox might have better ideas on how to spend that money - and things are still going to be tight, even with Kimbrel/Hanley/Pomeranz coming off the books (arb increases/extensions for X, Mookie, E-Rod, Holt; possibly extending Sale and maybe even JDM, rebuilding our pen with Kimbrel and Kelly both FAs).

 

[Sampo Gida]

This, plus I don’t think Dombrowski is done. That tweet mentions that the Sox are expected to try and acquire another reliever, but I expect a few guys on the club now will be moved to cut salary to make room (nobody important, but Swihart’s time is drawing to a close, maybe one or two other guys as well).

Also they signed Brandon Phillips to a minor league deal and he could get called up after playing in Pawtucket for awhile. No idea what he makes if called up

 

[shaggydog2000]

Nobody comes off the 40 man. We were only at 39 before acquiring Pearce.

I was thinking of the 25 man roster. Lin got sent down, and his MLB minimum salary would be 545k, I think. I was under the impression that young players have two-way or split contracts, and he would get paid less in AAA. So maybe a 500k savings? I could be wrong on that split contract thing, I can't find it spelled out anywhere.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I was thinking of the 25 man roster. Lin got sent down, and his MLB minimum salary would be 545k, I think. I was under the impression that young players have two-way or split contracts, and he would get paid less in AAA. So maybe a 500k savings? I could be wrong on that split contract thing, I can't find it spelled out anywhere.

They get paid the major league minimum for time spent on the 25-man roster and minor league salary when they're optioned. So the part-timers only count on the salary cap on a pro-rated basis. However, most payroll estimates (e.g. Cot's) bake that into the equation, so sending a guy down doesn't necessarily save anything. Or at least, it's not a savings they can guarantee by the end of the year. Players get hurt and necessitate call-ups.

Also they signed Brandon Phillips to a minor league deal and he could get called up after playing in Pawtucket for awhile. No idea what he makes if called up

He makes the MLB minimum if he's called up. It's not as though he has leverage to negotiate anything better if he's having to sign a minor league deal in the first place.

 

[shaggydog2000]

They get paid the major league minimum for time spent on the 25-man roster and minor league salary when they're optioned. So the part-timers only count on the salary cap on a pro-rated basis. However, most payroll estimates (e.g. Cot's) bake that into the equation, so sending a guy down doesn't necessarily save anything. Or at least, it's not a savings they can guarantee by the end of the year. Players get hurt and necessitate call-ups.


He makes the MLB minimum if he's called up. It's not as though he has leverage to negotiate anything better if he's having to sign a minor league deal in the first place.

Yeah, but carrying Pearce vs Lin (or whatever player making the league min in the 25th man slot) for the rest of the season is a $1.5 mil vs 272k difference, right? So there is a bit of savings there, but not much.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Yeah, but carrying Pearce vs Lin (or whatever player making the league min in the 25th man slot) for the rest of the season is a $1.5 mil vs 272k difference, right? So there is a bit of savings there, but not much.

True enough, assuming that Lin was going to stay up the rest of the year. My point was more that the estimates that have them right up against the cap with the addition of Pearce's salary already estimate guys like Lin as making a pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum already.

Cot's, for example, estimates roster spots 26-40 on the roster at $2.25M. So they're budgeting $150K for each optioned player as spent already. If at the end of the year, they don't have those players up enough to pay the lot of them all of the $2.25M, that gives them some wiggle room. It's just not wiggle room they can bank on.

 

[nothumb]

I find the attitude toward Nunez surprising. He still is the same hitter as we had in 2017, and has shown signs of recovering those skills.

I'm a bit pessimistic on Nunez the rest of the way, but I still don't think they move him unless they get some solid evidence that Pedroia or Phillips can do better. For now he's the weak side of a 2b platoon who can fill in at a couple other positions, unless he happens to get hot.

 

[Byrdbrain]

The above is correct but with the addition of poor defense and a contract that has him getting $2M the rest of this season and a $2M buyout next season.
I just don't see that as a player than could be moved unless essentially the entire contract is paid for and what is the point in that.

 

[nvalvo]

The one thing DD shouldn’t do is go *slightly* over $237m.

 

[MikeM]

Even putting aside whether its a good idea at all to trade Bradley, the "sell-high" concept is absurd -- for any player. The Red Sox dont play in some sort of time warp matrix where no other GMs have access to information about Bradley.

I was referring to a sell high opportunity there in context that they'd be looking to trade him while the upside appeal value that makes it questionable in the first place still even exists. Which in turn and in theory should lead to best possible return value coming back.

I mean I get the surrounding desire of people wanting to go all in on Bradley before adopting a stance that he's worth exploring a trade on, but you are also dealing with an increasingly slippy slope there. Especially as the general trade value of rentals plummet, and as a larger amount of quality/established players go at bargain bin commitments in FA (which in itself kinda begs for a current re-evaluation overhaul on just how valuable and appealing those latter years of arby control are going to be moving forward if that FA trend continues).

 

[williams_482]

I was referring to a sell high opportunity there in context that they'd be looking to trade him while the upside appeal value that makes it questionable in the first place still even exists. Which in turn and in theory should lead to best possible return value coming back.

I mean I get the surrounding desire of people wanting to go all in on Bradley before adopting a stance that he's worth exploring a trade on, but you are also dealing with an increasingly slippy slope there. Especially as the general trade value of rentals plummet, and as a larger amount of quality/established players go at bargain bin commitments in FA (which in itself kinda begs for a current re-evaluation overhaul on just how valuable and appealing those latter years of arby control are going to be moving forward if that FA trend continues).

I'm sorry, but I'm lost. What are the bolded sentences trying to say?

 

[MikeM]

I'm sorry, but I'm lost. What are the bolded sentences trying to say?

I'm failing to see what you find unclear in that.

But here, let me put it another way I guess. If JBJ was to hypothetically go down to injury for the year tomorrow, it wouldn't really move the needle for me any in relationship to how I ultimately feel about this very specific and very good overall team's chances of winning the World Series in 2018. I could however see a potential trade return pushing that needle forward some though, or at least helping more long term from a team building/re-tooling perspective. Especially given the current state of the farm, and considering what we can reasonably expect to net out of the incoming talent pool (minus the previous ability to exploit the international pickups, or the expectation of a notable comp pick out of the FA's we let walk) while picking at the tail end of draft the next couple of years.

As for the slippery slope part, the fact there was already reasonable discussion happening here on whether JBJ would even be worth an escalated arby salary (on a team already dealing with surrounding 2nd tier LT issues no less) should be enough of an obvious red flag on that. But yeah, I personally believe the most ideal time to trade Bradley while setting your sights on a healthy return already passed this past offseason. Barring the very best case scenario that he completely lights it up for most of the second half, I also don't believe his potential trade value has anywhere to go but down from here as that team control continues to tick down. As again, those latter years of team control where a non-elite guy is still locked in to making a sizable amount of money seems to be of more questionable value then it used to be imo.

But like I said from the start too, really I just think there is enough to all that where you have to at least hypothetically add his same to the potential short list of expendable payroll options DD has going in to the deadline.