Lars The Wanderer said:
Well, that's one way of looking at it. The other way is that he's realistic about his likelihood of remaining a viable 3B into his 30s, which I think is a good thing.
Red Sox & Pablo Sandoval agree to 5 Year, $100 Millionish Deal
- Thread starter ScubaSteveAvery
- Start date
Well, that's one way of looking at it. The other way is that he's realistic about his likelihood of remaining a viable 3B into his 30s, which I think is a good thing.
I am not sure this is killing the player as he leaves town. How? It says that Panda wanted to test the free agent market, which clearly he did (since it looks like he's leaving). It also says the reports that he was being an ass about getting a low offer are untrue. Neither of those things reflect badly on Sandoval and one of them reflects positively. It just means that he wanted something different than the Giants could offer (a DH slot).thehitcat said:
There are a lot of things the Giants could say to kill Pablo as he leaves town. That he rejected a good offer in Spring Training because he wanted to test the market is not one of them.
PrometheusWakefield said:
It's already been pointed out to you that there is no indication that these moves will stop them from spending on the rotation. They're going to add two pitchers. Clearly, they want Lester to be one of them. Even if they miss out on him and Scherzer they can land a combination of Shields, Maeda, Santana, or McCarthy through free agency and Latos, Iwakuma, Fister or Ross via trade and have a solid enough rotation to compete for the division and get back into the playoffs.
Shields, Fister, Buchholz, de la Rosa, Kelly is a pretty darned good rotation and is probably better than what the Royals took to the World Series last year.
Papi believes in the old saw that you can't leave until you've replaced yourself?Rudy Pemberton said:
The Royals had the best defense in the majors which helped their mediocre starters look much better. They also had a dominant bullpen. While the Red Sox don't look to be terrible at either of these things they're not likely to be at the Royals' level. They also won just 89 games in a weak division and had to play the coinflip game, which to their credit they won, but I don't think they're a reasonable or enviable team-building model for the Sox.Snodgrass'Muff said:
That said, Shields and Fister is a nice start to a rotation IF they can make those deals happen.
Toe Nash said:
They're not very good comps overall, which is why I focused on the rotation. Of course, Sandoval is at worst an average defender at third, Pedroia and Napoli are gold glove caliber at second and first. The outfield has a good chance to be plus as well and will have a ton of range. Not a lot of fly balls are going to get down in the gaps with Hanley, Castillo and Betts out there. And finally they might have the best defensive catcher in the game in Vazquez, but even if you want to insist he pry the crown away from Molina with a full year, at worst they have one of the best defensive catchers in the game. Vazquez alone will help make the rotation look better than it is, but I think the defense will be a plus in that regard irrespective of that.
And while the Royals were a better base running team last year than the Sox are likely to be this year, it's not by a huge amount. Betts, Castillo and Victorino (if healthy) are all strong base runners with 20+ stolen base potential, Pedroia is probably good for 15 or so and Hanley is likely in the 10-15 range as well. They will be much more dangerous on the base paths than the 2014 club. Add in the fact that the lineup will be far and away more effective and I think the Red Sox are in better shape with Shields and Fister at the front of their rotation than the Royals were in 2014 with their rotation.
DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
Earlier this season some on this board were turning on Tom Brady. Sandoval is not so special that this board won't turn on him after he goes 0-5 and leaves 7 men on base against the Yankees.
But if we judged players by whether or not this board turns on him, the Sox would have no one on the team. Except maybe Brock Holt.
Well, the Red Sox just improved their lineup exponentially and also their defense at 3rd base. They have insurance at DH should Ortiz not play until he's 50. They added a LH bat.
I often wondered how someone like Fielder could hit and field with that body. I often wonder how guys like Wilfork can be so athletic at that weight and size. It occurs to me that there are fat athletes all over the place who happen to be incredibly coordinated and have a lot of protection/insulation around their muscles to protect them against slingshots and falls from ladders.
I guess the only complaint here is about the money, but isn't it good economics to spend on something that fills a huge need? Particulalrly whne there's really no one in the system on the verge of breaking at at 3rd with a bullet (Bogaerts is that guy..down the road).
I often wondered how someone like Fielder could hit and field with that body. I often wonder how guys like Wilfork can be so athletic at that weight and size. It occurs to me that there are fat athletes all over the place who happen to be incredibly coordinated and have a lot of protection/insulation around their muscles to protect them against slingshots and falls from ladders.
I guess the only complaint here is about the money, but isn't it good economics to spend on something that fills a huge need? Particulalrly whne there's really no one in the system on the verge of breaking at at 3rd with a bullet (Bogaerts is that guy..down the road).
Fangraphs has an interesting piece up about Sandoval that's worth a read if you have some free time.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-pablo-sandoval-did-the-red-sox-buy/
I don't agree with all of it. Sarros concludes that Sandoval is scary because the aging curve for heavy players is shifted lower than that of normal players. Here's the graph.
The problem with that reasoning is that the decline isn't any more steep in the age 28, 29 or 30 years. It's going into the age 31 season that it grows more steep. So Sandoval is not more likely to decline (according to this) than a player with a normal body mass index in the first three years of his contract and the decline can be mitigated in the last two years by moving him off of third. The chart includes defense in their measure of production, so a shift to first or DH can help to keep him in the lineup and as productive as possible.
The other graph that was interesting to me was for plate discipline. Spoilered for size.
Out of zone contact (the dark green dashed line) drops off precipitously starting, well... right now. I would imagine that is due to declining eye sight as players age, slower reflexes, and a greater impact from fatigue as their bodies lose their ability to bounce back while the season drags on. This is probably the most compelling bit of evidence I've seen for not liking this deal. Sandoval is going to have to learn to lay off pitches off the zone a bit.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-pablo-sandoval-did-the-red-sox-buy/
I don't agree with all of it. Sarros concludes that Sandoval is scary because the aging curve for heavy players is shifted lower than that of normal players. Here's the graph.
The problem with that reasoning is that the decline isn't any more steep in the age 28, 29 or 30 years. It's going into the age 31 season that it grows more steep. So Sandoval is not more likely to decline (according to this) than a player with a normal body mass index in the first three years of his contract and the decline can be mitigated in the last two years by moving him off of third. The chart includes defense in their measure of production, so a shift to first or DH can help to keep him in the lineup and as productive as possible.
The other graph that was interesting to me was for plate discipline. Spoilered for size.
Out of zone contact (the dark green dashed line) drops off precipitously starting, well... right now. I would imagine that is due to declining eye sight as players age, slower reflexes, and a greater impact from fatigue as their bodies lose their ability to bounce back while the season drags on. This is probably the most compelling bit of evidence I've seen for not liking this deal. Sandoval is going to have to learn to lay off pitches off the zone a bit.
will be genuinely shocked if you won't be able to buy your official red sox panda hat at the yawkey way store by black friday.8slim said:
Ramirez has yet to play a single game in the majors as an outfielder. I know left field is not as demanding as shortstop, but let's not be giving him the Gold Glove just yet. And Betts doesn't have a lot more experience in the outfield than Ramirez does.Snodgrass'Muff said:
Jake Wesley MLB @mlb_nl_al Would like to congratulate my friend @MibeltRodriguez and myself for being first to report Pablo to Boston. As it's now official.
Snodgrass'Muff said:Fangraphs has an interesting piece up about Sandoval that's worth a read if you have some free time.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-pablo-sandoval-did-the-red-sox-buy/
I don't agree with all of it. Sarros concludes that Sandoval is scary because the aging curve for heavy players is shifted lower than that of normal players. Here's the graph.
The problem with that reasoning is that the decline isn't any more steep in the age 28, 29 or 30 years. It's going into the age 31 season that it grows more steep. So Sandoval is not more likely to decline (according to this) than a player with a normal body mass index in the first three years of his contract and the decline can be mitigated in the last two years by moving him off of third. The chart includes defense in their measure of production, so a shift to first or DH can help to keep him in the lineup and as productive as possible.
The other graph that was interesting to me was for plate discipline. Spoilered for size.
Out of zone contact (the dark green dashed line) drops off precipitously starting, well... right now. I would imagine that is due to declining eye sight as players age, slower reflexes, and a greater impact from fatigue as their bodies lose their ability to bounce back while the season drags on. This is probably the most compelling bit of evidence I've seen for not liking this deal. Sandoval is going to have to learn to lay off pitches off the zone a bit.
Great stuff. As I mentioned earlier, while happy with the signing, I am much more concerned about the impact of his free swinging approach as he ages than on the body shape. I wouldn't be surprised if his weight balloons after his retirement, and maybe it will have an impact in his mid thirties, but I don't yet see a cause why it will be a big problem between now and 33.
But those are also years where approach and experience tend to counteract the natural erosion of physical skills, and I think that he will need to have at least a slight maturing of his approach and discipline (very plausible, especially with teammate Papi), or in a few years bad pitches he currently is able to get hits on will more often end up outs or swing and misses.
They had em all lined up on Constitution Ave in DC once. I think I spit coffee out my nose at "Little Bird". Genius.mauidano said:
Yes it is. I happen to work around 9 of Botero's sculptures. Here's your Pablo replica...
koufax37 said:
There is also the possibility that runners on base ahead of him will lead a to slightly decreased willingness of pitchers to throw balls. I think I remember a BP piece years ago suggesting that "protection" is more about what happens *before* a batter gets up then who hits behind him (with exceptions at the extremes). At the macro-est level possible, he's hit quite a bit better with runners on.
Because he used to hit the 150s. Yeah he's 28, but he appears to have peaked early and moved to the downswing. If the starting point is 110-115, there's not much margin for further decline before he becomes a liability.Rasputin said:
Ian Browne @IanMBrowne 1m1 minute ago
Red Sox will unveil Sandoval tomorrow, and most likely Ramirez also. No presser tonight.
Red Sox will unveil Sandoval tomorrow, and most likely Ramirez also. No presser tonight.
You work at one of my favorite places in the world. I need to get back there.mauidano said:
Yes it is. I happen to work around 9 of Botero's sculptures. Here's your Pablo replica...
CoRP said:
I love it there too. That lobby is about one of the most amazing places in the world. The water elevator in the pool is a bit overrated though!
KNBR had a number of Bay Area baseball writers on today. The topic of respect (or Sandoval's perception of the lack thereof) came up frequently. Consensus was it played a part. Sandoval has a big ego, and the disrespect combined with the new challenge of playing in BOS tipped the scales.
Honest answer: I don't believe that they really disrepected a man they offered that much money to. I am guessing that he was offended by their earlier offer which didn't quite match Pence's? Anyway, is Lester going around saying that the Sox "disrepected" him? Maybe he is, and I haven't heard it.Papelbon's Poutine said:
@EfrainZavarce out of Venezuela confirms five year deal for Sandoval and #RedSox the 6th year is a TEAM option. via "people close to Pablo"
Sixth year is a Team Option.
Sixth year is a Team Option.
soxhop411 said:
I'll tell you what, things kind of things bother me not at all. Why should the Sox not market to every possible demographic out there?
"Hey, Pablo--look, we know it's your nickname and everything, but we don't want to upset the small minority of fans that would never even think of buying those things, so we won't be doing that."
I wonder if Ortiz was popularly known as Big Papi before Boston if we'd bro-hate on that nickname too.
EDIT: And I love the Panda gifs, so stop pissing him off soxhop:
PrometheusWakefield said:
Forces is a weird word to chose. Because the Sox clearly wanted this to happen. Which is why they, you know, signed both of them. They didn't sign Hanley and forget that they offered Sandoval this deal or have Panda come banging down the door and hold a gun to their heads. The Sox CHOSE to move Hanley to the OF.
InsideTheParker said:
I think the "disrespect" happened earlier in his career. For example, this article is from 2012:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1215413-bochy-minces-no-words-calls-out-pablo-regarding-weight
Heard just now on CSN Bay Area from John Shea of the SF Chronicle that the spring 2014 offer from the Giants to Pablo was 3/40. There's your disrespect, and Pablo's not letting it go, sounds like. He was so pissed off that he went out and had that terrible April and early May?
InsideTheParker said:
1--These people aren't like you and me. The amounts of money just isn't the same as if someone offered it to me and you.
2--All athletes aren't the same. Just because Lester doesn't feel disrespected, why does it follow that Sandoval can't feel that way?
Dempster Money, 6 WAR Victorino Money... 3/40 to Sandoval was probably the Giants version of 4/70 to Lester, except it was much stingier and backfired horrifically.rembrat said:
He's always had a bit of bitterness about the public discussion of his weight and fitness. If he thinks that goes away in Boston, he's insane. It will likely be an issue every year because he gains weight every year--and I doubt Boston fans will be bringing signs that read "Let Pablo Eat!" So if he wants to stop being "disrespected" about his fitness then he needs to show up in shape and stay that way. He was benched in 2010 not because they were punishing him for being overweight, he was benched because his weight made him a horrible fielder and an ineffective hitter. He wasn't performing, and they told him he needed to get his crap together.
If reports are true, 3/$40m was a starting offer and they got to 5/$85m during Spring. If he really felt "disrespected" by that, then there is nothing the Giants could do to gain that back.
If reports are true, 3/$40m was a starting offer and they got to 5/$85m during Spring. If he really felt "disrespected" by that, then there is nothing the Giants could do to gain that back.
BarrettsHiddenBall said:
He hit in the 150s once. He hit in the 140s once. He has, in fact, hit higher than 123 twice, while hitting between 111 and 123 four times. I suggest that it's not so much that he declined as it is he's a guy who hits around 110-120 who had a couple really good years early in his career. It's a narrative that fits better than the notion that he peaked early and is in continual decline.
gaelgirl said:
Fat chance of the bolded happening. His thread here next season will be fascinating.
DrewDawg said:
It's also possible that they've chosen to move Hanley to 1B, and that the next shoe won't be a Cespedes trade, but a Napoli trade.
Not that I think that's the likely result -- Napoli is the less valuable chip and has history here, plus there was that weird story earlier this offseason that appeared to be priming the fan base for a Cespedes trade -- but the FO has options.
gaelgirl said:
It's going to get ugly if he doesn't keep his weight in check and fails to hit to expectations.
Bobby Evans said on the radio that the Giants never made a 3/$40 million offer to Sandoval and that he doesn't know where that figure came from. (It was Sandoval's agent, btw. He seems to be a loose cannon.)
Dave Flemming, Giants announcer, said that he personally feels Sandoval didn't have any ill will toward the Giants, but it's possible others in his camp did.
Dave Flemming, Giants announcer, said that he personally feels Sandoval didn't have any ill will toward the Giants, but it's possible others in his camp did.
And we both know that he's streaky, too. I hope for Pablo's sake that he shows up to Spring Training in good shape and gets off to a good start. If he hits .110 for the first month again to start out 2015... I don't think the reaction will be very positive, no matter how well he recovers.DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
Listening to some interviews from SF Radio Today.
Sounds like GM Bobby Evans truly believed they were still in it this morning. I think Gustavo Vazquez was stringing him along saying Pablo hasn't decided/not in Boston.
Apparently the Giants were willing to match dollar for dollar all the way with the Red Sox.
Considerations why he left: More marketing money on the East Coast and Spring Training in Florida near his Family.
Sounds like GM Bobby Evans truly believed they were still in it this morning. I think Gustavo Vazquez was stringing him along saying Pablo hasn't decided/not in Boston.
Apparently the Giants were willing to match dollar for dollar all the way with the Red Sox.
Considerations why he left: More marketing money on the East Coast and Spring Training in Florida near his Family.