Red Sox Opening Day Roster

ehaz

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Right. Which is exactly what Cherington did when he looked at the offensive futility of the 2014 club, identified the best available bats on the FA market in Panda and Hanley, and signed them both.

What I'm saying the team should do now, is to identify it's greatest positions of need, put together a board of different players who would significantly improve the team at that particular point of need, and then work the phones like crazy to get it. Which is what Toronto did after 2014, when they got Josh Donaldson.

The 2017 Red Sox won the AL East and 93 games, and are bringing back essentially the same group of players. They don't need to reshuffle the deck, they need to stack it.
If only they could convince Joey Votto to waive his no trade... He's 34, and the contract isn't pretty, but for the three or so years that this group has together, he'd be perfect in this lineup.

Here are the top qualifying 1B ranked by SLG% from 2015 to 2017:

1. Votto
2. Freeman
3. Goldschmidt
4. Encarnacion
5. Rizzo
6. Abreu
7. Cabrera
8. Bour

Votto refuses to waive the no trade. Freeman is under 4 years of control and the Braves are building around him (not to mention, the price, if Boston could afford it, would create even more holes). Goldschmidt is the one player who could have been on the block this offseason. He's only signed for 2018 + an option for 2019, but Arizona somehow made it to the postseason so there's no way they trade him before the deadline next year.

Rizzo/Edwin are going nowhere for obvious reasons. The realistic options are then, the bottom three:

Jose Abreu
- Contract: 2 years remaining, $23.5M
- Pros: coming off his best season since his rookie year (.304/.354/.552), the White Sox are rebuilding so he should be available, consistently on the field - averages 154 games per season.
- Cons: plate discipline leaves something to be desired (5.2 BB% last year), will be 31 years old, below average (albeit not awful) fielder.
- Suggested trade: Eduardo Rodriguez + lottery type prospect for Abreu.

Miguel Cabrera
- Contract: 6 years, $184M
- Pros: inner circle HoFer, best hitter in baseball over the last decade, averaged 156 wRC+ from 2014-2016.
- Cons: was terrible last year (.249/.320/.399), defense, the contract is an albatross
- Suggested trade: Who knows? It all depends on how much money DET is willing to eat. Will probably let Miguel bounce back and not trade low.

Justin Bour
- Contract: arb eligible 2018, earliest FA 2021.
- Pros: youngest (29), arguably coming off the best season of the three (.289/.366/.536), cheap and cost controllable for three seasons.
- Cons: injuries/doesn't have a history of staying on the field. not a long track record of extended success, may be most expensive in terms of prospect cost.
- Suggested trade: Groome, Chavis, and Beeks for Bour.

I refuse to talk Hosmer because he is a rich mans Mitch Moreland who will end up with a Jason Heyward type overpay.
 

tonyarmasjr

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The thing about Eric Hosmer that's so interesting is that he isn't very good and people think he's very good.

You get JD Martinez, you sign Logan Morrison, you get rid of Hanley anyway possible.
Logan Morrison is 30 years old, and just hit more than 23 HRs for the first time in his career. His career OPS is .007 higher than Mitch Moreland's, and he's a step down defensively. It's not a stretch to think Moreland will be the better player over the next couple years. I don't know what kind of contract he's going to get, but what do you think the Sox should be willing to sign him for? How much more than Moreland would get?
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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I honestly have no idea what you're talking about. Without Dombrowski dealing for Sale, Kimbrel, and Pomeranz, this is an 80-win team at best.
This team won exactly the same number of games in 2016 as it did in 2017 and is one loss away from the exact same results. Dombrowski made some good moves but they clearly weren't enough. If we applaud the good moves he made, you can't deny that the end result of all this is exactly the same. I hope I'm wrong and they bounce back in the ALDS but I don't think many people on here think they're better than the Astros or Indians.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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I suppose part of being spoiled is the refusal to accept playoff defeat, never mind that the vast majority of teams do not qualify for the playoffs.

The Astros were manifestly better than the Red Sox. All year. And the Indians were last year.

So does this come down to a temper tantrum because the truism that anything can happen in a short series has not broken in our favor?
Except this isn't a temper tantrum when it was first stated after the 2016 elimination, repeated in the 2017 opening day and is being repeated again on the verge of the 2017 elimination. The fan base isn't satisfied with a first round elimination. We expect more and aside from a few weeks this summer this team never showed us that they were anything more than above average.

We forget that Dombrowski went into the season with Pablo Sandoval as options A and B at 3B. In hindsight he didn't know that Thornburg would get hurt, but trading away a legit backup plan wasn't exactly smart. I'll applaud him for not pursuing Todd Frazier and instead going after Nunez and promoting Devers. But considering all that, the team is comprised largely of slightly above average players and any time it's suggested that we upgrade a position the masses on SoSH whine because we'd be selling low. At what point do we understand that Bogaerts may not be as good as we think is. At what point do we realize that JBJ is a below average offensive player and the most obvious candidate besides Moreland for an upgrade.

If Dombrowski goes into next year with Sam Travis and JBJ in the lineup (and no substantial upgrades elsewhere on offense) it just reaffirms the unwillingness to identify the problems with this team.

Some candidates that could be available:
1B
Jose Abreu
Joey Votto
Travis Shaw
Eric Hosmer
Freddie Freeman
Travis Shaw
Miguel Cabrera
Logan Morrison
Mark Reynolds
Carlos Santana

OF
Giancarlo Stanton
Nelson Cruz
Andrew McCutchen
Jay Bruce
J.D. Martinez

There are definitely other candidates as well, but let's not pretend that there are no options here.
 

DanoooME

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If only they could convince Joey Votto to waive his no trade... He's 34, and the contract isn't pretty, but for the three or so years that this group has together, he'd be perfect in this lineup.

Here are the top qualifying 1B ranked by SLG% from 2015 to 2017:

1. Votto
2. Freeman
3. Goldschmidt
4. Encarnacion
5. Rizzo
6. Abreu
7. Cabrera
8. Bour

Votto refuses to waive the no trade. Freeman is under 4 years of control and the Braves are building around him (not to mention, the price, if Boston could afford it, would create even more holes). Goldschmidt is the one player who could have been on the block this offseason. He's only signed for 2018 + an option for 2019, but Arizona somehow made it to the postseason so there's no way they trade him before the deadline next year.

Rizzo/Edwin are going nowhere for obvious reasons. The realistic options are then, the bottom three:

Jose Abreu
- Contract: 2 years remaining, $23.5M
- Pros: coming off his best season since his rookie year (.304/.354/.552), the White Sox are rebuilding so he should be available, consistently on the field - averages 154 games per season.
- Cons: plate discipline leaves something to be desired (5.2 BB% last year), will be 31 years old, below average (albeit not awful) fielder.
- Suggested trade: Eduardo Rodriguez + lottery type prospect for Abreu.

Miguel Cabrera
- Contract: 6 years, $184M
- Pros: inner circle HoFer, best hitter in baseball over the last decade, averaged 156 wRC+ from 2014-2016.
- Cons: was terrible last year (.249/.320/.399), defense, the contract is an albatross
- Suggested trade: Who knows? It all depends on how much money DET is willing to eat. Will probably let Miguel bounce back and not trade low.

Justin Bour
- Contract: arb eligible 2018, earliest FA 2021.
- Pros: youngest (29), arguably coming off the best season of the three (.289/.366/.536), cheap and cost controllable for three seasons.
- Cons: injuries/doesn't have a history of staying on the field. not a long track record of extended success, may be most expensive in terms of prospect cost.
- Suggested trade: Groome, Chavis, and Beeks for Bour.

I refuse to talk Hosmer because he is a rich mans Mitch Moreland who will end up with a Jason Heyward type overpay.
I'll participate in the rosterbation a little bit here. I think you're undervaluing Abreu somewhat. A guy on that contract with his production is worth quite a bit. I love Bour and that might get it done, but I can't see cleaning out the rest of the farm for him. And 2017 might be his career year.

That leaves Miggy. Hanley would have to go back in any deal. Would it be crazy to take on Miggy's contract if they send back Hanley and Rusney? I know Rusney doesn't count against the tax but he might (emphasis on might) have value as a 4th OF in Detroit. If they don't see any value in him, they can keep him in the minors off the 40-man and not take a tax hit either. The Sox only take on an extra $8M against the tax in 2018 and don't have to worry about activating Hanley's option for 2019. And if Miggy can stay healthy, he might be able to turn it around a little.

And I totally agree about Hosmer with the Heyward comp being almost exact. He'll get crazy money for 5 or 6 years based on rep and never earn it any year.

Logan Morrison is 30 years old, and just hit more than 23 HRs for the first time in his career. His career OPS is .007 higher than Mitch Moreland's, and he's a step down defensively. It's not a stretch to think Moreland will be the better player over the next couple years. I don't know what kind of contract he's going to get, but what do you think the Sox should be willing to sign him for? How much more than Moreland would get?
Yeah, that's a suspicious career year that's likely going to lead to a 4/$60M deal from someone. Can they afford to wait and take their chances on getting a cheap deal in February? It's quite a gamble.,

Some candidates that could be available:
1B
Jose Abreu
Joey Votto
Travis Shaw
Eric Hosmer
Freddie Freeman
Travis Shaw
Miguel Cabrera
Logan Morrison
Mark Reynolds
Carlos Santana

OF
Giancarlo Stanton
Nelson Cruz
Andrew McCutchen
Jay Bruce
J.D. Martinez

There are definitely other candidates as well, but let's not pretend that there are no options here.
If they can't get Votto, Freeman or Martinez, I'd love to see Carlos Santana on the team on a Victorino-like 3 year deal (like 3/$45M)
 

AB in DC

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This team won exactly the same number of games in 2016 as it did in 2017 and is one loss away from the exact same results. Dombrowski made some good moves but they clearly weren't enough.
A second consecutive 93-win season -- this one without David fucking Ortiz -- and this means Dombrowski isn't good enough?

When did this place turn into WEEI?
 

Hank Scorpio

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A second consecutive 93-win season -- this one without David fucking Ortiz -- and this means Dombrowski isn't good enough?

When did this place turn into WEEI?
Depends on your definition of “good enough”.

A one-two punch of Ervin Santana and Jason Vargas might be good enough to make it into the playoffs, but once there be at a serious disadvantage.

The past two years, the Sox were “good enough” to win the east. Not even close to good enough in October.

Hopefully the negligence employed last offseason (not replacing Papi) and at the trading deadline (missing out on cheap useful hitters) is just another failed experiment that we can move on from, much like “closer by committee “ and the 2015 starting rotation.
 

EricFeczko

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Apr 26, 2014
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Depends on your definition of “good enough”.

A one-two punch of Ervin Santana and Jason Vargas might be good enough to make it into the playoffs, but once there be at a serious disadvantage.

The past two years, the Sox were “good enough” to win the east. Not even close to good enough in October.

Hopefully the negligence employed last offseason (not replacing Papi) and at the trading deadline (missing out on cheap useful hitters) is just another failed experiment that we can move on from, much like “closer by committee “ and the 2015 starting rotation.
So...Dombrowski isn't good enough because he didn't use his bottom-five farm system to pursue more trades during the regular season?
Apart from building the starting rotation and bullpen from the shambles left by Cherington's awful (by hindsight) tenure, most of the players that underperformed were here prior to dombrowski's arrival. Implicitly, your post begs the question whether Dombrowski is good enough to run the red sox. What mistakes has he made since arriving, and how does he compare to his predecessors?
 

MikeM

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So...Dombrowski isn't good enough because he didn't use his bottom-five farm system to pursue more trades during the regular season?
Apart from building the starting rotation and bullpen from the shambles left by Cherington's awful (by hindsight) tenure, most of the players that underperformed were here prior to dombrowski's arrival. Implicitly, your post begs the question whether Dombrowski is good enough to run the red sox. What mistakes has he made since arriving, and how does he compare to his predecessors?

For me DD came in from day one with with a short shelf life (I trusted him to do what Ben C wouldn't to get us over the hump, but didn't trust he'd keep us there over the long haul), but I think this winter will go a long way for many here in their determination on whether DD is "good enough".

Especially if/when the clear cut and easy for everybody to get on board with "fix" doesn't end up being there.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Depends on your definition of “good enough”.

A one-two punch of Ervin Santana and Jason Vargas might be good enough to make it into the playoffs, but once there be at a serious disadvantage.

The past two years, the Sox were “good enough” to win the east. Not even close to good enough in October.

Hopefully the negligence employed last offseason (not replacing Papi) and at the trading deadline (missing out on cheap useful hitters) is just another failed experiment that we can move on from, much like “closer by committee “ and the 2015 starting rotation.
Did you miss the Nunez trade?

But sure... not replaceing Papi with EE was a serious mistake but having optimism with Hanley after his stretch in '16 when he was healthy doesn't while at the same time feeling hesitant to add another potentially burdonesome contract is completely understandable
 

E5 Yaz

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He replaced a superstar offensive player with a superstar pitcher for a net gain of 0. Try again though.
I'm with AB on this one. This team doesn't come close to 93 wins w/o Sale ... and with the issues the remainder of the starting staff had, it's unlikely they come close to 93 if DD had gotten a hitter instead
 

Reggie's Racquet

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And IMO this is the problem with the Theo strategy "just make the playoffs". Does anyone here honestly think "let's just win the AFC East" would be Belichick's strategy? How about the Sox adjust their goals to at least "let's just make the World Series." The current strategy seems to in reality be, "let's just do enough to keep fans interested and buying tickets."
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm with AB on this one. This team doesn't come close to 93 wins w/o Sale ... and with the issues the remainder of the starting staff had, it's unlikely they come close to 93 if DD had gotten a hitter instead
And even if DD had gotten that hitter (Encarncion or whomever), does his presence prevent the rest of the lineup from taking a collective step backward from their 2016 performance?

And IMO this is the problem with the Theo strategy "just make the playoffs". Does anyone here honestly think "let's just win the AFC East" would be Belichick's strategy? How about the Sox adjust their goals to at least "let's just make the World Series."
That strategy isn't exclusive to Theo (though it has worked out okay for him with two franchises).

And Belichick's strategy is irrelevant given it's a completely different sport.
 

dcmissle

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We're now beyond EEI, solidly into Sports Hub territory.

Yes, entirely different sport. QBs dominate professional football like nobody dominates MLB and BB has probably the best ever playing like the best ever in his 17th season.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Maybe I'm misunderstanding you, but your original post describes not having faith in a relief ace. You had no faith in Kimbrel this year?
The "no faith in Kimbrel" argument was going into this year. I should have clarified, the part that I standby is getting rid of Farrell, Dombrowski and a significant chunk of the roster. I'm not crazy enough to complain about Kimbrel this year. He and the bullpen have been a very pleasant surprise.
 

Sox Puppet

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And IMO this is the problem with the Theo strategy "just make the playoffs". Does anyone here honestly think "let's just win the AFC East" would be Belichick's strategy? How about the Sox adjust their goals to at least "let's just make the World Series." The current strategy seems to in reality be, "let's just do enough to keep fans interested and buying tickets."
Yes, and another analogy might also make sense here: the Celtics. With Isaiah, they were technically the #1 seed in the conference (just as the Sox won the division), but as soon as the playoffs rolled around they got crushed by the Cavs, just as we are getting crushed by the Astros.

Danny Ainge could have played it safe and said "What more do you want? We're the #1 seed!" but instead had the courage to gut the entire roster for a long-term gamble on higher upside.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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I'm with AB on this one. This team doesn't come close to 93 wins w/o Sale ... and with the issues the remainder of the starting staff had, it's unlikely they come close to 93 if DD had gotten a hitter instead
The goal isn't to win 93 games, the goal is to win the World Series. If the goal was to only win 93 games than we wouldn't be having this conversation. The team is 8 innings away from the exact same results as 2016.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The goal isn't to win 93 games, the goal is to win the World Series. If the goal was to only win 93 games than we wouldn't be having this conversation. The team is 8 innings away from the exact same results as 2016.
Then I guess 29 teams should be looking for new GMs this year. This discussion is stupid and your expectations are unrealistic. Make the WS every single year? Give me a break.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The goal should be moving towards something, not flat lining.
The goal in baseball is to make the playoffs because once you are there, anything can happen. Even the best teams in baseball lose close to 40% of their games. There is going to be at least 1 team that won 100 games that isn't going to the WS this year. I guess their GM should be fired too.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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The goal in baseball is to make the playoffs because once you are there, anything can happen. Even the best teams in baseball lose close to 40% of their games. There is going to be at least 1 team that won 100 games that isn't going to the WS this year. I guess their GM should be fired too.
I didn't know Billy Beane was a member of these forums.

The Yankees, Astros and Indians will very likely be better than the Red Sox next year if the Red Sox remain satisfied with their current offense. But as long as the make the playoffs, you're happy. Got it.

Complacency pisses me off.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I didn't know Billy Beane was a member of these forums.

The Yankees, Astros and Indians will very likely be better than the Red Sox next year if the Red Sox remain satisfied with their current offense. But as long as the make the playoffs, you're happy. Got it.

Complacency pisses me off.
And no one is being complacent. Not the Red Sox, not anyone in this thread. No one. No one is saying that 93 wins is "good enough". They're merely trying to counter the insanity behind an argument that the GM of a team, in his first two full years on the job, that has won back to back titles in one of the most competitive divisions in the game, needs to be fired for doing so because the only acceptable direction is up.

This isn't fantasy baseball where you can trade out or revamp large chunks of a roster wholesale for "better" players on a whim. Super teams aren't built by throwing money around like the early 00s Yankees. There are salary limitations and roster limitations that can't be ignored. Sometimes GMs have to play with the hand they're dealt, and DD's hands were somewhat tied when he took the job by albatross contracts like Pablo Sandoval's.

No one is saying that you have to be happy with just making the playoffs. I think the message that isn't getting through is that the GM can't do much more than put a team together that gets to the post-season. After that, it's up to the players to win games.
 

AB in DC

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And the Sox have now officially done better than last year's team, which kinda makes the whole conversation moot now.
 

RedOctober3829

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Heyman came out with an article tonight handicapping the leaders for Giancarlo Stanton. He went deep in on 3 teams: Cardinals, Phillies, Giants. When he mentions the field, he says this.

"The Red Sox (the most popular rumor in the Marlins’ clubhouse) didn’t adequately replace David Ortiz, have the money, the right ballpark and solid future prospects with star pieces in key spots."

https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-who-is-leading-the-stanton-sweepstakes/
 

MikeM

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Heyman came out with an article tonight handicapping the leaders for Giancarlo Stanton. He went deep in on 3 teams: Cardinals, Phillies, Giants. When he mentions the field, he says this.

"The Red Sox (the most popular rumor in the Marlins’ clubhouse) didn’t adequately replace David Ortiz, have the money, the right ballpark and solid future prospects with star pieces in key spots."

https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-who-is-leading-the-stanton-sweepstakes/
I wouldn't sleep on the Sox there, but I just can't see Henry (atm) signing off in full on that contract. Somebody else will though, and which ends up being the key negotiating aspect in their favor.
 

brandonchristensen

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Since 2003, I'd classify the Red Sox playoff results/emotional roller coaster as such...

2003: Really, really, really wanted to win that fucking ALCS. Was absolutely fucking giddy, until Pedro was left in far too long. My sister, mom, and I were flipping our shit at Grady even before Pedro started getting knocked around. I punched the floor when Boone walked it off, went to my room and didn't emerge til morning. The loss felt inevitable once they tied it up, but I think I was more pissed we lost to the Yankees, again, because of course they fucking win. Again.

2004: Revenge. I want fucking revenge. Fuck the fucking Yankees. Fucking fuck, we lost game one... but that's okay. Game two, fuck, come on... Game three, okay, I'm fucking out. Dave Roberts steals second, WE'RE WINNING THIS GAME. David Ortiz walks it off. WE'RE WINNING THIS SERIES! ....FUCK, please don't let it be Tony Fucking Clark, holy shit... ORTIZ, HOLY SHIT... Damon Grand Slam, is this real life? After the ALCS comeback, I had zero doubt that we would win the World Series. It was inevitable.

2005: "No pitching, injuries , we're not winning shit. I miss Pedro."

2007: "Indians will be tough, but this is our year."

2008: "Rays will be tough, I'm worried about the bottom third of our lineup, but this is our year too. Man, I might hate the Rays more than the Yankees."

2009: "This team doesn't have the feel of the great teams. I don't see it going far."

2013: "I love these guys, but there's no way we get past Detroit. As long as we beat the fucking Rays, who I hate more than the Yankees, I'll be happy. Fuck you, David Price."

2016: "I don't think this team is going to go very deep into October, but I'd love to see one more magical ride to send Papi out on. Of course, he'll probably have to do all the work. I just hope we make things interesting, at least. (Wow, great job guys!)"

2017: "We're fucked. I just hope we outlast the Yankees. And I hope Kluber shatters Aaron Judge's wrist. I hate the Yankees and their fucking persistent Cinderella season so damn much. Who gives a fuck about the Rays?"
This is succinctly put.

You forgot 2006, though. Matt Clement early on was gold, the rookie year for Lester. That year felt great until it didn't. Once it was obvious we weren't going anywhere, we still had Ortiz to hit homers.
 

tonyarmasjr

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The goal should be moving towards something, not flat lining.
Update, with 2 games left:

OPS+, 2017 vs. 2016

C Leon -52 (worse than when the thread started)
1B Ramirez -32 (w)
2B Pedroia -16 (w)
SS Bogaerts -16
3B Holt -49 (37 OPS+ in 162 AB)
LF Benintendi -14 (w)
CF Bradley -28 (w)
RF Betts -26
4th OF Young -35 (w)

So, every regular from last year's team is still hitting double-digits worse, by OPS+, than he did last year. The one exception would be Vaz, who now could be considered the regular catcher over Leon, and who is +40 (55 last year, 95 this year).

Re-posted from its own thread. No one thought this offense would be a juggernaut with the loss of Ortiz, but take a look at reality. The GM puts the roster together at the start of the season, and it's up to the players to perform. I'm not going to go look up preseason projections for the hitters because, well, it's not worth it. But this team was one of the favorites going into the season. And even with severe offensive under-performance from a young core, they STILL scored the 10th most runs in MLB this year. If half these guys performed to expectations, guess what...this offense would have been pretty damn good. The pitching basically performed to expectations as a whole, considering the injuries to Price and Wright. Sorry the GM didn't replace the best Red Sox hitter of your lifetime in the offseason, but this team was projected to be a WS contender when the regular season started and they finished it with an AL East crown and a legitimate chance to make a run at the WS. That is the something a franchise moves towards. There is no more. Flat lining there means they are as good as any team can be, since conference winners are picked in the preseason like in the (apparently analogous) NBA. Injecting one of the worst parts of yankee fan entitlement into your expectation of more is not a good look.