Red Sox Offseason News and Notes

moondog80

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  • “The Red Sox are no longer involved in the Stanton race, per Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link). A report on Wednesday indicated that Boston and Miami hadn’t discussed Stanton since the general managers meetings in mid-November, so the Red Sox’s apparent exit from the sweepstakes doesn’t come as a surprise.” - MLBTR
Good. They’re not star struck.
 

moondog80

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That may be, but I expect it's more likely that a) they didn't have enough to offer the Marlins in the first place and b) Stanton wasn't interested in coming even if they did.
The first part almost certainly is not true. If they took on 100% of the contract they could get him without giving up Groome, I would bet.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Good. They’re not star struck.
Yeah can’t wait to overpay on JD Martinez!!

Seriously you can’t be happy about not getting Stanton. I’m assuming that it was a combination of the Sox not wanting to take on those years, the contract, Stanton not wanting to come here, and most importantly not having the prospects to get a deal done.

DD stripped the system bare. Let’s face facts Chavis and Groome have value as secondary pieces in a trade. 2nd best or 3rd best prospects. The thought that they could carry a trade for someone like Stanton was laughable from the get go.
 

JBJ_HOF

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DD stripped the system bare. Let’s face facts Chavis and Groome have value as secondary pieces in a trade. 2nd best or 3rd best prospects. The thought that they could carry a trade for someone like Stanton was laughable from the get go.
No. They are both better than Beede and Shaw.
 

moondog80

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Yeah can’t wait to overpay on JD Martinez!!

Seriously you can’t be happy about not getting Stanton. I’m assuming that it was a combination of the Sox not wanting to take on those years, the contract, Stanton not wanting to come here, and most importantly not having the prospects to get a deal done.

DD stripped the system bare. Let’s face facts Chavis and Groome have value as secondary pieces in a trade. 2nd best or 3rd best prospects. The thought that they could carry a trade for someone like Stanton was laughable from the get go.

Prospects won't carry the trade. Taking on more of the contract than anyone else will carry the trade. The rumored deal with San Fran contained no prospects in the MLB top 100, and still the Marlins were eating 45 mil of his deal. If the Red Sox took on 100% of the contract, included some token grade C prospects, and Stanton agreed to it, he would be here tomorrow.
 

chawson

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My feeling was that it had nothing to do with our prospects. Stanton seems to like warm weather.

And while it’s illegal to admit as much, it always seemed far-fetched that Jeter’s first move as a Marlins exec would be to trade a franchise player to the Red Sox. Of course he’ll make smaller trades with DD, but I’m sure he could imagine scenarios where a Stanton-led Sox team beating NYY in the 2018 ALCS (for example) would tarnish something he’d rather not tarnish.
 

soxhop411

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“@jonmorosi: Sources: #Marlins have agreed to general framework of Giancarlo Stanton trades with both #STLCards and #SFGiants; the deals are on hold, while Marlins wait for Stanton to inform them whether he’d accept either trade. @MLB @MLBNetwork”
 

Tyrone Biggums

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No. They are both better than Beede and Shaw.
Strongly disagree. SF system is better than the Sox. Groome has a higher ceiling than both but hasn’t been as advertised and has a much lower floor. I’d take Beede or Shaw over Chavis regardless. I’m not high on him at all.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Prospects won't carry the trade. Taking on more of the contract than anyone else will carry the trade. The rumored deal with San Fran contained no prospects in the MLB top 100, and still the Marlins were eating 45 mil of his deal. If the Red Sox took on 100% of the contract, included some token grade C prospects, and Stanton agreed to it, he would be here tomorrow.
The point is that the prospects that SF or STL are talking to the Marlins about would be one or two in the Sox system currently. The Sox would need to absorb most of the contract plus beat the prospects sent to the Marlins by STL and SF. Farm system needs an overhaul badly and while losing Flores was sad and unexpected it’s another step back. He was probably going to be #1 by the end of next year.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Based on what? This is a reach.
Ian and Chris from soxprospects.com were talking about him at 3 when the winter update was done. This was about a week before the awful news. It's not a stretch at all to think that a strong 2018 could have moved him to the top. Especially if Chaos Chavis graduated and Groome continued to struggle or got hurt again.

Edit: swype typo too good to delete.
 

Sampo Gida

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My feeling was that it had nothing to do with our prospects. Stanton seems to like warm weather.

And while it’s illegal to admit as much, it always seemed far-fetched that Jeter’s first move as a Marlins exec would be to trade a franchise player to the Red Sox. Of course he’ll make smaller trades with DD, but I’m sure he could imagine scenarios where a Stanton-led Sox team beating NYY in the 2018 ALCS (for example) would tarnish something he’d rather not tarnish.
Yeah, some combination of the Jeter factor, Stantons disinterest in Boston and DD's reluctance to raid the farm again
 

OCD SS

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My feeling was that it had nothing to do with our prospects. Stanton seems to like warm weather.
The report that the Marlins have agreements with either the Giants or Cardinals indicate that either the Sox couldn’t match them, or DD didn’t care to try. I prefer Stanton for the current window, but JD Martinez makes more sense over the respective terms of their contracts.
 

moondog80

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According to Rotoworld, the Cardinals proposed deal is supposedly centered around Sandy Alcantara, who is not on any top 100 list that I have seen, and contains more cash than the Giants offer. This deal has always been about 1) cash, and 2) where Stanton wants to go.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I have always doubted that DD would give up either Groome or Chavis in a deal for Stanton, never mind both. I figured the best chance might lie in his possible willingness to take on more of the remaining contract than other teams. Since moving JBJ would need to be a piece of the puzzle to make room for Stanton in the OF, either JBJ would have to be the "centerpiece" of our package or we'd have to find a third team to deal JBJ to get the pieces to send to Miami. But the best fit for JBJ might be in SF, which poses a big problem, of course, in that they are also trying to get Stanton. So DD might not even be able to put together a deal that's close enough to know whether Stanton would or wouldn't accept a trade to Boston.

But I still hope they don't overpay for JDM. And that they stay away from Hosmer.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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According to Rotoworld, the Cardinals proposed deal is supposedly centered around Sandy Alcantara, who is not on any top 100 list that I have seen, and contains more cash than the Giants offer. This deal has always been about 1) cash, and 2) where Stanton wants to go.
Sandy Alcantara was #84 on Longenhagen's mid-season top 100 (8/17/17) and gave him a 55-grade. A few weeks ago, he bumped him down to a 50 as it sounds like a lot of scouts think he will wind up in relief.

Recent KLaw quote:

Keith Law: Fastball is pretty true, just hard, but velocity alone doesn’t miss bats. You need deception, movement, or spin. He will show you above-average secondary stuff but it’s not consistent. He’s also pretty young, so I’m not terribly worried.
 

PapaSox

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Now that this is resolved as far as the Sox are concerned and Stanton has a deal in place with either SF or STLO it looks as if DD can focus on filling the DH/IB hole and adding whatever else he feels needs resolving.
 

E5 Yaz

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Now that this is resolved as far as the Sox are concerned and Stanton has a deal in place with either SF or STLO it looks as if DD can focus on filling the DH/IB hole and adding whatever else he feels needs resolving.
I'm pretty certain that what's he's been doing since the end of the season
 

StuckOnYouk

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Yeah can’t wait to overpay on JD Martinez!!

Seriously you can’t be happy about not getting Stanton. I’m assuming that it was a combination of the Sox not wanting to take on those years, the contract, Stanton not wanting to come here, and most importantly not having the prospects to get a deal done.

DD stripped the system bare. Let’s face facts Chavis and Groome have value as secondary pieces in a trade. 2nd best or 3rd best prospects. The thought that they could carry a trade for someone like Stanton was laughable from the get go.
If we end up getting Martinez for say 7/175 while giving up no one from the minors or majors and no draft picks in 2018, are you really going to be pissed off compared to landing Stanton for an extra 3/100 and some pieces off the minor or major league system?
 

snowmanny

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I'm pretty certain that what's he's been doing since the end of the season
Well Price and Sale were both first week of December deals so there's a firmly established pattern over multiple years and I expect something mind-boggling by Thursday.
 

nvalvo

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So, Mariners, Dodgers, Giants, Rangers are favorites at this point?
People on twitter seem to think the Angels and Padres are still in it, and that the Cubs might be "an exception" to the West coast preference.

Edit to clarify that I am not sure what any of those reports are based on, if anything.
 

Yo La Tengo

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If Seattle gets Ohtani, any chance they’d trade Nelson Cruz? 1 year left on his contract at $14.25 million. Probably wouldn’t cost much in prospects in a trade.
That's a interesting roster question, but, Cruz has been so good and has such a friendly deal that I can't imagine the Mariners trading him. I kinda see Cruz as the best case scenario for JD Martinez over the span of his next contract.
 

grimshaw

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Strongly disagree. SF system is better than the Sox. Groome has a higher ceiling than both but hasn’t been as advertised and has a much lower floor. I’d take Beede or Shaw over Chavis regardless. I’m not high on him at all.
Tyler Beede was terrible last year in AAA which is why he dropped out of the top 100. We would be burying him here if that were the case. He will be 25 in May and Groome is 19. I have no idea why you think Beede is better than Chavis given the 2+ year age difference and performance. And I don't know of any publication that thinks the Giants have a better system than the Sox. Here are two that weren't behind paywalls, and an underwhelming 2017 evaluation from fangraphs.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2731819-re-ranking-all-30-mlb-farm-systems-at-the-end-of-2017s-milb-season
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/6re8f1/farm_system_rankings_according_to_baseballamerica/
https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/a-minor-review-of-2017-san-francisco-giants/

According to Rotoworld, the Cardinals proposed deal is supposedly centered around Sandy Alcantara, who is not on any top 100 list that I have seen, and contains more cash than the Giants offer. This deal has always been about 1) cash, and 2) where Stanton wants to go.
53rd on Fangraphs - but that was before the season and he struggled a bit.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-top-100-prospects/
 
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StuckOnYouk

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It is like clockwork that the Sox seem to always make a trade or signing right before their mid-December ticket sale on Saturday morning. The only problem this year might be Boras throwing a monkey wrench in everything.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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If we end up getting Martinez for say 7/175 while giving up no one from the minors or majors and no draft picks in 2018, are you really going to be pissed off compared to landing Stanton for an extra 3/100 and some pieces off the minor or major league system?
I don't trust the player enough to give him 7/175. Maybe I'm wrong. But you only add term like that for a player that you're pretty sure would be a good fit. Not a guy who has only had a handful of good years and one great one. If its between Martinez and a heavily subsidized guy like Miggy then I'd take Miggy because the Tigers would probably eat most of that contract. To be clear I'm a fan of JD Martinez as a player but I'm not a fan of paying him almost 200 million a year when guys like Betts are coming up on free agency fairly soon.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Tyler Beede was terrible last year in AAA which is why he dropped out of the top 100. We would be burying him here if that were the case. He will be 25 in May and Groome is 19. I have no idea why you think Beede is better than Chavis given the 2+ year age difference and performance. And I don't know of any publication that thinks the Giants have a better system than the Sox. Here are two that weren't behind paywalls, and an underwhelming 2017 evaluation from fangraphs.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2731819-re-ranking-all-30-mlb-farm-systems-at-the-end-of-2017s-milb-season
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/6re8f1/farm_system_rankings_according_to_baseballamerica/
https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/a-minor-review-of-2017-san-francisco-giants/



53rd on Fangraphs - but that was before the season and he struggled a bit.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-top-100-prospects/
Yeah Beede was terrible but he does have some type of track record in the minors. Difference between struggling in AAA and getting smacked around in A ball. Groome as I mentioned has a much higher ceiling but the floor is very low. Boom or bust. Beede if all works out is probably a 3rd or 4th starter in the league. Chavis doesn't project as anything more than an average player and Shaw has more power than anyone in the Sox system. Alcantra is pretty good. He went through his struggles but no one knows who the actual prospects are in these deals. Could be better could be worse. The point with the Sox is that even if they take on 250 out of the contract they'd still give up one of their top guys at the very least. This is because the top guys in the Sox system would be borderline top 10 in most others. I'm sorry to say that but its true. Stanton will get 1 or 2 borderline top 10 guys from a good system or 1 or 2 top 5 players from a decent/mediocre system or 1-2 top guys from a bad system. Up to you to decide where the Sox lie.

Also at least one of those evaluations not behind a paywall includes the recently deceased Daniel Flores who was at worst a top 2 guy next year in the Sox system. That's a massive hit for the future.
 

grimshaw

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Yeah Beede was terrible but he does have some type of track record in the minors. Difference between struggling in AAA and getting smacked around in A ball. Groome as I mentioned has a much higher ceiling but the floor is very low. Boom or bust. Beede if all works out is probably a 3rd or 4th starter in the league. Chavis doesn't project as anything more than an average player and Shaw has more power than anyone in the Sox system. Alcantra is pretty good.
And what does Shaw project as by your projection system?

And the power thing just isn't true. As has been noted a million times, the PCL is a hitters paradise and the Eastern league is not. Yet. . .

Shaw's line last year .292/.346/.525 - 24 home runs
Chavis' .282/.347/.563 - 31 home runs. He also set the Salem home record for home runs in a season by June. It's a huge ballpark.

And look, I get the sky is falling reaction about Groome and his ugly numbers, but his ERA was 6.70 while his FIP was 4.56 and his xFIP was 3.44. At least some of him getting hit hard was luck based and a good chunk was injury. Can we give him more than 44 innings and a 21st birthday before completely readjusting our expectations about him?
 
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Tyrone Biggums

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And what does Shaw project as by your projection system?

And the power thing just isn't true. As has been noted a million times, the PCL is a hitters paradise and the Eastern league is not. Yet. . .

Shaw's line last year .292/.346/.525 - 24 home runs
Chavis' .282/.347/.563 - 31 home runs

And look, I get the sky is falling reaction about Groome and his ugly numbers, but his ERA was 6.70 while his FIP was 4.56 and his xFIP was 3.44. At least some of him getting hit hard was luck based and a good chunk was injury. Can we give him more than 44 innings and a 21st birthday before completely readjusting our expectations about him?
Chavis could develop plus power. While Portland isn't exactly Lancaster either. The ball does travel there. Average took a dip there as well. You mention give Groome more than 44 innings then we need a season in AAA or a full year in AA from Chavis to see if he's "for real". Shaw and Beede are more finished products but in reality these players are all bottom half of the top 10 in a good/decent farm system. The only one that might surpass that who we haven't discussed yet is Ramos (and yes Groome). This is a big reason why losing Flores hurt this team bad. You take a farm system that was already in the bottom 3rd and lose a player like that and its tough to rebound immediately. In reality Shaw and Chavis probably project close on power when its all said and done but I'd still say Shaw is a more proven power prospect. Its tough to buy into someone as a legitimate power prospect when the season before he hit 8 total.
 
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pinkunicornsox

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Can we start a new thread entitled Sox VS Giants system? I keep seeing this thread being updated and I think there is actual news.
 

nvalvo

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I just realized (reading this article) that Giants prospect — and likely Stanton chip — Heliot Ramos is the younger brother of longtime Sox farmhand Henry Ramos, whom I always thought looked better than his numbers bore out.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I just realized (reading this article) that Giants prospect — and likely Stanton chip — Heliot Ramos is the younger brother of longtime Sox farmhand Henry Ramos, whom I always thought looked better than his numbers bore out.
If Ramos was part of the package being offered we'd be hearing his name by now.
 

Bigpupp

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Doesn't have to mean anything is imminent. Could just be leaving an open spot so they can participate in the rule 5 next week.
 

Plympton91

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Such a sad fall from grace for Owens. Hope he catches on with another team that can get him back to where he was 2’years ago. Another lesson in prospect hoarding.