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Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by RedOctober3829, Jan 12, 2018.
Source: #RedSox, Jackie Bradley Jr. settle at $6,100,000, avoiding arbitration.
Carson Smith (850K) and Steven Wright (1.1M) have settled also.
Reliever Joe Kelly jumps up to one year, $3.825 million contract with #Redsox
Drew Pomeranz gets $8.5 million from #Redsox, per @alexspeier
Eduardo Rodriguez and the Sox agreed to a $2.375 million deal for 2018.
Gone are the Theo days where no one actually got to the arbitration hearing. Hopefully everyone comes out of it on friendly terms.
Am I the only one who's concerned here? If nothing else, it would seem the two sides aren't particularly close to common ground on a long-term extension.
Long-term extension? I don't think either side is really thinking about that right now, let alone looking for common ground. They've got three more years before that's really a concern.
Scott Lauber speculates that Betts is looking for Kris Bryant money. Bryant just got a $10.85M salary today in what is a first year arb-eligible record. I don't think Betts is quite there, but he's arguably close. That's a big raise from his $950K in 2017 (though he's going to get a big raise regardless). Frankly, I'm not surprised that they are far enough apart to take it to a hearing.
Awesome idea to require a once-in-a-generation player have to go through arbitration. Unless he is asking for an astronomical salary, this strikes me as short-sighted. And while I understand that this is only technically an issue in three years, wouldn't it be nice to keep a guy like Mookie happy and feeling positive about the team, rather than making him feel like the team used its leverage over him to shortchange him?
Heyman says Mookie filed at $10.5 million and Red Sox number is $7.5 million. Meet in the middle at 9 and call it a day.
Not pleased with that much of a gap
Obviously, neither is Mookie.
while I think Mookie is going a bit high after a down year at 10.5, I think us countering with 7.5 is a good deal low as well, hence the likelihood now they're going to arbitration. For comparison, George Springer offered 10.5 and the Astros offered 8.5.
what was Mookie projected for?
EDIT: 8.2 mil per MLBTR
No, this is the business side of baseball and always has been. If Mookie doesn't want to deal with this, he can sign an extension. He's getting an enormous raise regardless, and I still won't be surprised if they come to an agreement at $9ish.
Read the posts above: "Betts and the Sox will set his 2018 salary through arbitration." They're not going to negotiate again -- he gets either his number or the Sox's number. And on "it's a business," part of running a business is keeping your best employees happy.
The team elected to give him a very high salary last season. They’re not operating in bad faith.
Negotiating 101, while it's possible they go to arb I'd bet against it.
There's still a few weeks to go until the arbitration hearings. I would not rule out a settlement somewhere in the middle.
Mookie is hitting free agency regardless of how nice we are with arbitration IMO.
If I’m the Sox and I believe my side is more valid than Mookie’s I stick to my guns in arb.
Bryant had two MVP caliber years in a row. Mookie had one and then a good but not great year. $10.5M was a really aggressive ask, and $7.5 may be a pretty good pegging of his value given the context (being a first year arb player instead of a free agent).
If it goes to a hearing, I'd bet on the Sox winning.
Funny that Betts rejected the raise they gave him in pre-arb which was 950K , well over (67%) the minimum. Red Sox still gave it him by renewing at that salary rather than getting a signed extension at an agreed salary .
Now he is asking considerably more than the models suggest he be making (2.3 million more than MLBTR projection)
Something tells me an extension is going to be hard. He obviously has a super agressive agent.
Good luck to him in arbitration. A position player who gets a lot of value from defense is kind of like a set up guy w/o many saves as Betances learned last year. Its an uphill road but maybe he gets lucky
That 3 million dollar uncertainty may complicate the rest of the offseason for DD
I don't know if I'd go that far with it, but if our rumored interest in JDM is legit there is going to have to be a lot of budget crunching going on if DD wants to dodge a 2nd tier LT hit. So yeah, in the grander scheme of things there an extra $3m might actually end up being a big deal.
I'm guessing Betts is losing there as things stand now though.
"What is Mookie worth, long term and short term" could be a new thread here. I'm still not too sure where I stand with Mookie. After the '15 season a lot of people here were pushing for dealing him to the Mets for one of their top starting arms- as he seemed to be a "very good" but not great player. After the 2016 season he put himself in elite territory as one of the top 5 MLB players with Trout, Harper, Machado and Bryant. After last season "very good" but not "great"... and definitely not "elite". I'm not sure what this is all worth- $10.5M seems crazy high. $7.5M seems low. $9M still seems high to me.
He's obviously going to push himself for a crack at free agency rather than sign a long term contract. I'm thinking at this point that's likely a good option. In his (or his agent's) mind, he's still elite but he'll need to show better at the plate results the next two years to get what he's likely to ask for ($30M/7). Any way, I don't think we'll be seeing him (or Xander) on the Sox after they hit FA.
The Red Sox can easily make up a $3MM difference by trading Holt and Leon for minor-league players, then giving those bench roles to Lin (saves ~$1.75M) and Swihart (saves ~$1.25M).
I'm not saying Mookie will win his arbitration case (I don't think he will). And I'm not saying the Red Sox would be a better or worse team after making the move (I'm agnostic, but generally prefer maintaining depth). But I definitely don't think this issue will complicate the rest of the offseason.
[edit:] complicate it financially, I mean. Obviously, the media can latch onto this in conjunction with the dithering over salary for JDM; plus, the chance of productive talks this offseason to extend Mookie before he hits free agency is dropped to nil, but from a payroll-only perspective this is basically trivial. The Red Sox were almost assuredly ready to settle at $9MM, after all.
Yeah, there's no way that $3M is going to change anything the Red Sox are looking to do this winter. If they were determined to stay under the $197M cap, that would be one thing. Per Cot's calculator, they're projected to be at $194M right now without Betts. Even if they get him at their number, that puts them over the cap. Assuming their goal is simply to stay under the secondary cap of $237M, they've got some room to work with even if they sign Martinez.
Cots isn't including the benefits hit. With that added in we are indeed already over the LT even without Betts, and likely push over the second cap of $237 in the event we sign JDM.
Yes, Cots does include the benefits hit, unless the line item of "Est Player Benefits" for $14,044,600 is for something else. Without Betts and including benefits, Cot's has the Sox' CBT payroll at an estimated $194,784,600. And that is also with all other arb-eligible players at their exact 2018 pay.
I stand corrected, as I actually hadn't noticed they had added that on the other tab until now. Different overall estimate then the site I had been pulling it from though, which I was drawn into believing more since Cots seems to lowball those complicated "extras" going by their miss on where we stood all season on last year's mark.
I'll have to sit down and crunch them both I guess.
I agree. It’s pretty obvious that the goal this year is to stay under the secondary cap. But I think this goal has to be the main reason DDski’s holding to his line with Boras on JDM.
A $26MM AAV for JDM plus Mookie winning his arb case at $10.5MM gives the Sox relatively little wiggle room to make in-season trades because it already puts them over $230 before Spring Training has even started. A $30MM AAV for JDM plus Mookie at $10.5MM would make absorbing significant salary at the deadline almost impossible.
Betts wins his case.
Hmmmm.... not sure how I feel about this. In a matchup of egos, I'd rather Betts win and not feel slighted, but it seems heavy considering that he didn't have a great season last year and that pay in his arb year looks Trout-like to me.
Just hope he plays Trout-like in '18
Assuming arbitrators are only looking at traditional stats (and maybe they look beyond this now) I dont see how they arrive at this decision.
Its not possible IMO without looking at advanced defensive metrics and stuff like WAR. Maybe Josh Donaldson and Bryant inflated the arb market as seen by arbitrators although both are 3Bmen and MVP winners and have much better offensive stats as measure by the traditional numbers
Happy for Mookie but this wont help the teams payroll flexibility
7.5 offered for a top-5 MLB player 2 years ago, is shameful.
Happy for Mookie. Hopefully it translates on the field and 2017 becomes an outlier.
That's a surprising outcome, and in my opinion, not a particularly good one.
It occurs to me that the Red Sox bumping Mookies salary to 950K out of the goodness of their heart may have cost them this year. If arbitrators look at percentage increase as a key determinant then that higher base may have cost them. Basically the difference between awarding Betts a bit more than Machado money vs Kris Bryant money, the latter also making significantly more than the minimum heading into arbitration
In-season trade or even adding Castillo to the MLB roster for the stretch run. His cost is over $1.9 million/month