He had 23 2/3 innings as a reliever, with a K/9 of 5.3 in mopup duty. I wouldn't call that a "year".
Red Sox acquire Tyler Thornburg from Brewers
- Thread starter amfox1
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I dunno... think about what it takes to lose that much weight. A great deal of hard work. It didn't just accidentally fall off of him. We were fooled before, so there's that, but that kind of dramatic weight control, I mean, why would he stop now? We'll see what he's really about next spring, but I like the suggestion that he is motivated to change things.
Travis Shaw is the definition of replaceable and there are lots of bats available in FA that are better. I don't like that they included Dubon because I think he made a real breakthrough last year, but if they concluded the added power is just a mirage, Dubon is really nothing more than a Brock Holt, Marco Hernandez type. Even if the guy ends up sucking, it's not like they gave up a ton of value.
Plus it's possible Tyler Thornburg made a breakthrough last year as well, and it's not like he was bad prior to 2016. If he ends up as Carson Smith 2.0, it was worth the risk when the risk is Travis F'n Shaw and a guy in the bottom half of the top 10. My first reaction was to hate the deal when I saw Dubon included, but I had no idea Tyler Thornburg was that dominating last year. We just acquired a guy who had a 2.15 era in 67 innings with 90k/25bb and a whip of .940 for cents on the dollar. DD is like the anti Ben when it comes to trading for MR's. Ziegler for Almonte and the bad Basabe and now this trade. Even the Carson Smith trade was worth the risk.
+1 to Koji, I'm sure he'd be cheap, he seems well liked, and we all know he can do the job when healthy. But we got a puppy after the 2013 Series and you can guess his name. So I'm biased.
I'd have to think the team isn't planning on a contribution from Smith in 2017. He could be 100% by the second half, but to literally count on him in advance for a big role is probably a bit much. More likely they will fill the pen for April, and if Smith gets it together quickly he can replace whoever gets injured or flames out.
I think the NL Central is a much tougher division if you're *on* the Brewers or Reds. Thornburg faced the Cubs and Pirates eight times each, and the Cardinals' seven. I think those are at least decent teams, no?
He held the Cardinals to a .354 OPSa, the Cubs to a .415, and the Pirates to a .492.
I like this deal. We turned our roster spare parts into something we really needed. Dubon is a tweener in Boston. He's not starting over Bogaerts, but has too much potential value locked up in SS defense to make much sense as a utility man. He should be traded to a bad team who can offer him playing time at SS to see if he can approach his ceiling. I figured one of Dubon, Brock, and Marco would be dealt, and I was so certain Shaw would be that I had narrowed his destinations down to the Brewers, Mets and Reds.
He held the Cardinals to a .354 OPSa, the Cubs to a .415, and the Pirates to a .492.
I like this deal. We turned our roster spare parts into something we really needed. Dubon is a tweener in Boston. He's not starting over Bogaerts, but has too much potential value locked up in SS defense to make much sense as a utility man. He should be traded to a bad team who can offer him playing time at SS to see if he can approach his ceiling. I figured one of Dubon, Brock, and Marco would be dealt, and I was so certain Shaw would be that I had narrowed his destinations down to the Brewers, Mets and Reds.
I hope he is, since his stuff is really good in small doses. I've been banging this drum for aeons.
Was he moved to the bullpen due to injury concerns? Seems weird to move a guy to the bullpen who had 10 career starts and a 2.37 era in 57 ip. His results were better than his performance but his performance wasn't exactly terrible on paper.
Do the Sox look outside organization for a 3B? Gotta be the right price with Panda likely back in the mix. Maybe FA Trevor Plouffe? Low OBP, but perhaps someone serviceable for a year at a reasonable price.
I hope Panda retakes the job based upon good health and good play, but might make sense to have backup just in case.
I hope Panda retakes the job based upon good health and good play, but might make sense to have backup just in case.
Possibly. He did get shelved with a partially torn UCL in 2014. They tried him in the rotation again in AAA in 2015, and it didn't really stick, and he's been in the bullpen since. I hope he can keep it up as well, but he really only has the one year track record (which is still very promising).
That backup depth might be Hernandez, Holt, and, when he's ready, Moncada.
I wonder if they've considered giving Sam Travis any time at 3b. He's not exactly the most athletic guy though. Add in the fact he is recovering from an injury and I doubt they'd burden him with learning a new position on top of that, one he probably isn't suited to play anyway. Plus he has no long term role at 3b.
Yep. The only thing that worries me about this deal is Thornburg's elbow and that he could become this year's Carson Smith.
The same reason we ignore Joe Kelly's 2016 starts when projecting him as a reliever in 2017. Prior to 2016 though, Tyler's career numbers: 152.2ip 3.18 era, 130k/66bb, 17HRA on 132 hits with a fip of 4.27. It isn't like he was trash.
Either way, Panda has some real nasty platoon splits.
Plouffe is probably a solid enough guy to fill that role.
hey, they both have PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE.
The underrated part of this trade is the roster-spot optionality. If healthy, Thornburg is a top piece in the bullpen (yes, there's a NL Central -> AL East transition factor, but it's not that big). If injured, he is not taking up a spot and we can put someone else in there. That is far better than consistently-healthy mediocrity.
Yeah, if this means they're truly out on Jansen, and Koji is cheap, I'd be happy to have him back to bridge to Smith.
I wonder where Taz ends up?
Also, losing Dubon means we really have to extend Bogaerts, right?
They released Chris Carter so Shaw is probably going to be playing a good deal of his games at 1b too. Not really sure what the Brewers are doing here, they must really like Dubon.
2016 RS:
AL East - 3,733 or 746.6 per team.
BOS 878
BAL 744
NYY 680
TB 672
TOR 759
NL Central - 3,703 or 740.6 per team.
MIL 671
CHC 808
CIN 716
PIT 729
STL 779
Now take Boston out of the AL East and Milwaukee out of the NL Central and you get 2,855 for the AL East (713.75 per team) and 3,032 for the NL Central (758.0 per team).
Can we please dispense with the notion that he's moving to a more difficult run scoring environment?
I doubt losing Dubon in this trade has anything much to do with extending Bogaerts. I don't think it's clear that Dubon was being looked at as the "next one".
From a Fangraphs chat from their prospects guy Longenhagen:
Dubon: Interesting and one of the tougher evals of the year for me. Athletic actions, looks the part at short but makes fundamental mistakes. Has good feel for contact, contact in Fall League was louder than I anticipated given the body but still of the low-lying line drive variety. If the body comes along he could be quite good, if not he may be outclassed, physically, in the bigs. I've talked to guys here in DC who think he's an average everyday player and others that think he's a 40.
Pennington is a reliever all the way, might be a set-up type.
Dubon: Interesting and one of the tougher evals of the year for me. Athletic actions, looks the part at short but makes fundamental mistakes. Has good feel for contact, contact in Fall League was louder than I anticipated given the body but still of the low-lying line drive variety. If the body comes along he could be quite good, if not he may be outclassed, physically, in the bigs. I've talked to guys here in DC who think he's an average everyday player and others that think he's a 40.
Pennington is a reliever all the way, might be a set-up type.
Best quote from the SoxProspects forum:
Read more: http://forum.soxprospects.com/thread/3725/acquire-thornburg-shaw-dubon-pennington?page=1#ixzz4S5AStf5VQuote
Post by thursty on 2 hours ago
Why not just throw in Betts as well?
The superannuated Dombrowski needs to go; it's sickening
What were the average number of runs scored per team in the International League?
If both the pitching and the hitting (which is worse by definition, since pitchers bat in the NL) are worse, then runs scored could be the same, higher, or lower.
If there were a quality difference between the two leagues (or divisions), do you think it would manifest itself on both sides of the ball, or only on the offensive side of the ball?
Let me give you some more food for thought on that question. Runs Scored per game in 2016:
South Atlantic League (A): 4.20
California League (A+): 5.01
Eastern League (AA): 4.34
Texas League (AA): 4.12
International League (AAA): 3.96
Pacific Coast League (AAA): 4.78
National League (ML, pitcher bats): 4.44
American League (ML, DH): 4.52
Clearly those DHs have negligible impact in the AL, and we should all fear the Cal League hitters and IL pitchers, right?
Edit: To leave the snark behind, my point of course is that if we were to see a major difference in run-scoring environment, it would mean somehow that the AL East was cornering the market on hitters while neglecting their pitchers, and the NL Central was getting all the good pitchers / defenders while neglecting their hitters. Ludicrous, right? If there IS a difference in talent, we surely wouldn't see it in differences between RS/G, even accounting for the Pitcher -> DH transition.
The way to see it is in measuring the relative performance of players who move between different environments. Much like the scientific method says you can't just say correlation = causation, you have to control for a single experimental variable - in this case, league switches for players. P91's reaction, and mine, is based on anecdotal cases of players doing that the last 15 years or so, plus the AL's long win streak in interleague play (currently standing at 13 straight seasons). I would certainly yield to data from a larger study looking at players who transitioned between leagues or divisions, but I haven't seen one.
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Scouts are all over the place on his defense. To me, Dubon looks like a 2b who was forced to play SS because Moncada but I have very limited exposure. I don't think he was ever Xander insurance, either. He was a late draft pick that exceeded all expectations and looked to have a career as a UI at some point... and then he went and exceeded even that in AA. It'd be easy to call him this years Guerra, but Dubon actually has a decent track record, doesn't have the huge strike out issues and is also much further along in development. Travis Shaw was the throw in, Dubon is the guy who hurts to lose if he wasn't blocked and we weren't spoiled.
Meh. Me liking this trade or not also completely depends on what Ziegler will end up receiving. Would rather just resign him for a little more and keep Shaw and Duhon for a bigger target. But if he gets big $ ($5+) elsewhere, then it's a good move. I liked Shaw's ability to play both 1B and 3B. I think his eye for above the belt fastballs could be taught and improved.
Lots of pressure on Carson, Panda, and Yoan. Looking forward to Ross develop too.
Lots of pressure on Carson, Panda, and Yoan. Looking forward to Ross develop too.
It's often said the the pitcher hitting doesn't affect high leverage relievers as much because they're facing pinch hitters, but, for 2015, the latest data I can find, NL pinch hitters put up a combined line of .220
/ .291 / .328 vs. AL DH's line of .259 / .339 / .431.
The other place where I think the pitcher hitting has a huge effect is in the effectiveness of the number 8 hitter, who has to extend the zone at times, or can be pitched around in others.
AL #8 hitters: .243 / .299 / .374
NL #8 hitters: .238 /.302 / .351
I actually would have thought NL would have a significant advantage in OBP to go with its deficit in SLG, but it's just a deficit in SLG there for the NL as well.
If you are going to assert that the AL East is a significantly more difficult place to pitch than the NL Central, right now, at this very moment, you need to provide evidence to back it up. Deflecting away the fact that the NL Central sans the team Thornton pitched for was a higher run scoring environment than the AL East sans the team Thornton will be pitching for.
You are making the claim. Back it up.
The whole thing hinges on Shaw. If he's slightly better than replacement level, the deal is a gamble worth making; if he's a 2-win player, it's a disaster even if the prospects fizzle.
The deal also signals confidence in Moncada -- service-time considerations dictate that Panda be given every opportunity to win the 3B job, but the FO surely isn't counting on anything from him.
Edit: That will teach me to set aside a draft post for an hour; obviously, I didn't know about the Sale trade.
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I would guess that if any young prospect might be looked at to learn 3B as a new position, it might be Swihart. He did spend his HS years playing SS and people have always lauded his athleticism, so perhaps that could be in the mix.
I agree, but I started hearing chatter this year that he might become a viable plan B if Bogaerts can't be extended. All eyes on CJ Chatham now I guess; the system's pretty barren at short.
With the acquisition of Sale, this deal makes a lot more sense. The Red Sox are in a Go For It Now phase, and have opened up a 3 year window in which they should be the best team in the American League. None of the 3 players traded in this deal are at all important to that 3 year window, whereas having a relief ace is.
John Henry gets one last extended rodeo, and then cashes out.
John Henry gets one last extended rodeo, and then cashes out.
I saw that pic. He looks like a baseball player, instead of a beer league softballer now. Obviously their internal reports were strong enough that they dealt Shaw. Fingers crossed!
You made a logic error in arguing RS/G is evidence against there being a quality difference between the leagues. The only assertion I made was that the quality difference was "not that big". I think interleague results for comparing leagues (13 straight years!), plus inter-division records for comparing divisions, is pretty suggestive that the difference is nonzero. You'll have to be satisfied with that, as there are few conclusive proofs to be had anywhere, nevermind in baseball.
I liked both Dubon and Shaw way more than most people here. It is painful to see them go.
The Thornbird had better be good!
The Thornbird had better be good!
I like this trade, but still want Holland or someone else that can also pitch the 8th (putting Thornburg in that category).
No, I didn't. You're just doing mental gymnastics to justify a statement that doesn't have anything but conventional wisdom to back it up... and conventional wisdom from like a decade ago, at that. When you take the Sox out of the AL East and the Brewers out of the NL Central, the NL Central scored 177 more runs. That's a big difference and is far more than enough to dispense with the idea that the AL East is currently appreciably more difficult to pitch in, even if we leave some wiggle room for the impact of the DH and it's trickle down effects.
Burg is just a typo.
Until someone tells me he's not cut I'm assuming he's an MOT
He went to Charleston Southern University. "Affiliated with the South Carolina Baptist Convention, the university's vision is to be nationally recognized for integrating faith in learning, leading and serving."
Which doesn't necessarily mean he isn't Jewish, of course, but makes it seem less likely.
There's a Thornborough in England, in Buckinghamshire. I'd guess his name hails from there.
As long as he treats hitters like Moe Berg and not Hank Greenberg, I'm good.