Red Sox acquire Ian Kinsler
- Thread starter LesterFan
- Start date
Absolutely. Get a bullpen arm like him and DD will have aced his job at building this year's team.
Clearly, DD is all in on this year, as he should be. Workman is a piece for this year, so no chance he would have made this move instead.
If Cora is trying for the R/L mix throughout this is a hell of a lineup and very strong defense up the middle. I mean the entire right half of the field is Bradley, Betts, Kinsler and Moreland. Outstanding.
Betts
Benintendi
JDM
Moreland
Bogaerts
Devers (when he returns)
Kinsler
Bradley Jr
Leon
Betts
Benintendi
JDM
Moreland
Bogaerts
Devers (when he returns)
Kinsler
Bradley Jr
Leon
It's really hard to see a downside to this move. Buttrey's still got a shot at being a legit MLB reliever, so it's not like we didn't give up anything. But we're unlikely to be miserable about giving him up down the line. And Kinsler is just solid as solid can be. Still a fine defender and an average-at-worst hitter.
Really true, this year at least. When you look at the guys we've added and the prospects we've given up, it's pretty fine work. He's managed to add three quality players who can play a significant GFIN role without giving up any real high-ceiling guys.
Enough with all of the ball-washing of Dombrowski. Let’s not forget that if we hadn’t made the Kimbrel trade, we’d have a 3-time all-star centerfielder and if he hadn’t traded for Pomeranz, we’d have a 20 game winner to go along with Sale.
It occurs to me that this is basically giving up Buttrey and Jerez to wave a magic wand and have a healthy Pedroia back for the stretch run and the playoffs. Kinsler and Pedroia are remarkably similar players. Kinsler has been Pedroia's main rival for the title of best defensive 2B in the AL for the past decade, and as for their offense, here's a graph of their career wOBAs:
Addresses a big need, makes the lineup deeper, solidifies the infield defense, gets Nunez out of a spot he sucks at, and doesn't cost much.
Kinsler, Eovaldi, Pearce. Somehow, DD managed to add three good, useful players to the best team in baseball without giving up much at all. The guy is a top-notch trader and I love his no-nonsense, no bullshit way of identifying and addressing weaknesses.
Kinsler, Eovaldi, Pearce. Somehow, DD managed to add three good, useful players to the best team in baseball without giving up much at all. The guy is a top-notch trader and I love his no-nonsense, no bullshit way of identifying and addressing weaknesses.
I dunno, he's hit in the .230's the past two seasons. Why should I be excited about that? It's a minor upgrade I guess. We're dumpster diving.
But hey, I hope he's money.
On pace to be a 4.5 war player is the opposite of dumpster diving, even last year in a down year he was an average player. Before that he had 4 straight years where he was a borderline star. And he's taking the spot of guys that are basically replacement level.
I wanted almost exactly this back on December 12. Good trade, though I think we may have paid more than the Angels did.
The biggest upgrade so far is not trading Swihart. A few weeks ago most people thought Swihart was hopefully going to get us a bag of balls. The lineup now is as good and deep as 2004.
If I'm not wrong, this is the first "Ian" ever on the Sox.
We've had Brians and Adrians and Julians and of course Christian (and even a Fabian), but I can't recall another Ian.
We've had Brians and Adrians and Julians and of course Christian (and even a Fabian), but I can't recall another Ian.
Kinsler’s career UZR/150 is 3.1, but he’s working on his 5th straight season above that number. Did he become a better defender after he was traded from Texas to Detroit, or did he benefit from better defensive positioning or something?
He's probably compliled a large part of that against Mel stottlemyre and Cory lidle. Unless you think it's the uniform, and not the guy in it
I love how this is done before the Yankee series. We have a chance to stomp on their nuts this weekend.
I agree and as per Cot's (and yes it is a moving target so you can't expect that the number is perfect)
Before the Kinsler and Eovaldi deal, the Rs stood at 233,300,000
Kinsler will add 1,833,000 (3.666 remaining - 1.833 pd by Angels)
Eovaldi adds 720,000
So that would put the RS at 235.9 MM when the next threshold is at 237 MM.
So a razor thin edge especially when you consider player benefits and the last ~10 spots on the 40 man roster (with and without Beeks, Buttrey and Jerez) are estimated. In addition, there are various player incentives.
And then if JD opts out in 2 yrs, that would add 1.75 to this year's payroll pushing them slightly over. I don't know what the rules are regarding the draft pick penalty if a recalculation 2 years down the road pushes the RS over.
Edit:
I forgot Pearce with the RS responsible for 1.5 MM of his salary, so then with the Kinsler move they are projected at being over:
237.4
Their in house calculations including the estimates are likely to be different and maybe they can shed some salary. But it looks likely they will take the draft pick penalty. The marginal surtax is not very significant since the tax should only amount to a few hundred thousand, although every $1 they get in these trades to offset salary is worth 1.42 to the RS. There lies the reason money is coming back in these deals even if they are still subject to the draft pick penalty.
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I like this trade for the defensive upgrade alone. Nunez can't play a passable second base but appears competent at 3rd, so Kinsler at second seems to be a major defensive upgrade.
People can talk about the bullpen all they want, but on paper second base was by far the biggest relative improvement they could make. Kinsler is an amazing second baseman who also has a perfect batting profile for Fenway park.
This is a huge enormous upgrade and frankly one that is probably a bigger upgrade than any other AL team made outside Cleveland getting Hand.
This seems dramatic. Kinsler has had trouble with some long-gone legacy Yankees, like Mussina (.336 OPS in 13 trips), Pettitte (.564 OPS in 24 PA), Kuroda (.527 OPS in 22 trips), Burnett (.442 OPS in 35 lifetime PA), Pineda (.258 OPS in 12 trips), Wang (.282 OPS in 11 PA), and even Hughes (.589 in 44 PA).
He's fine vs. current Yankees:
vs. Severino - .717 OPS (16 PA)
vs. Happ - .941 OPS (23 PA)
vs. Tanaka - .568 OPS (20 PA)
vs. Gray - 0 for 8
vs. Lynn - 1.000 OPS (12 PA)
vs. Sabathia - .782 OPS (47 PA)
I can't speak to what he changed to improve but the general consensus in the local media was that he was a butcher early in his career. The negative UZR/150 for the first three years of his career would seem to support that but he turned it around in year four (2009), well before his move to Detroit. I'm not seeing anything regarding the coaching staff which would stand out as a cause for the improvement but it is entirely possible a big part of the problem was Michael Young. 2009 was the year he was moved off of shortstop to 3B and was replaced by Elvis Andrus. Surely that allowed Kinsler to shift more towards the hole and not have to worry so much about the middle.
Kinsler’s walk-up music has most recently “Superstitious” by Stevie Wonder.
That makes this a good add, in my book. As long as he keeps it.
That makes this a good add, in my book. As long as he keeps it.
Better defensive 2B than anyone else on the roster.
His OPS+ over the season to date is 95. Devers' is 90, Holt's is 100, so he's not exactly an offensive downgrade if the aggregate is the future. Nunez is at 77. He also has been far better for a little over a month and should be a solid fit for Fenway. His hang time spray charts for the past three years.
Can't really see the risk, and the reward is easily worth two fringe relief types.
His OPS+ over the season to date is 95. Devers' is 90, Holt's is 100, so he's not exactly an offensive downgrade if the aggregate is the future. Nunez is at 77. He also has been far better for a little over a month and should be a solid fit for Fenway. His hang time spray charts for the past three years.
Can't really see the risk, and the reward is easily worth two fringe relief types.
Agree. This team is solid enough (C notwithstanding) that Kinsler doesn't have to be an outstanding player. If he's better than what we have, he mitigates a weakness. He's also experienced in postseason play (37 games in 8 playoff series including 2 WS) which will be useful in October. For the team with the best record in baseball by a good margin, that's more than enough to make this a good move.
He's absolutely tailored made for Fenway. Huge part of this... it's a perfect batting profile for the home park
Not against the deal, but we did lose 2 cheap potentially good bullpen arms. They both throw hard and have incredible stuff, but the Redsox do have plenty of bullpen arms in the minors.
Don't know the elevation of these but I count eight outs that landed behind the Monster. Maybe they'd have been homers. Maybe doubles. Probably a mix of the two. Call it four each. Plus some of those doubles that look LONG gone in left if they were hit at Fenway.
Yeah that's a lot of offense that he could pick up in Fenway.
Yeah that's a lot of offense that he could pick up in Fenway.
Both guys are fairly old for AAA: Buttrey's 25 and Jerez is 26. I'm not too torn up about the players going LAA's way.
His career numbers don't really bear that out - he's had 193 PA at Fenway over his career and his OPS is slightly lower at Fenway than overall (.746 vs. .785). Still a pretty small sample size and other factors like quality of pitching go into that, but it's worth noting.
Looks like several of those Angelic fly ball outs would be GM doubles at FenwayHuh...
Maybe, either that or they don't want to gamble that they translate on a team that is championship caliber. Can't really blame them either way for not going with him. This isn't the year for it.
I'd guess they see him as a cheap, decent UI but not someone they want starting for 2 months and someone who is mostly redundant.
Two thoughts. 1) This is essentially a medical update on Pedroia and I wish that weren't the case as I'd love to have Pedey back. 2) I'd much rather have Kinsler for second than obtain Beltre. If Beltre is on the 25 and Devers is healthy, then you've got two IF's that can only play one place. Adding Kinsler takes care of second and allows you to use Brock and Eddie at third as needed. Much more flexibility adding Kinsler, even if he only plays second.
I like the move given the circumstances.
I like the move given the circumstances.
Me too but I'm not sure why LAA would. Workman is arb eligible next year and a FA after 2020.
I'm about 80% sure you're joking, but the other 20% would be you talking about an alternative deal we could have made or something. But yeah, humor the humorless - what are you talking about, if you're not just doubling down sarcastically on the ball-washing?
As for Kinsler and Pedroia and their longstanding rivalry, it's not just for AL supremacy, it also dates back to their college days. Specifically, the undersized, chip-on-his-shoulder Pedroia displaced then-sophomore Kinsler from the Arizona State starting lineup, and Kinsler ended up transferring to Missouri. There are lots of other good stories.
Hope Dustin has paid his parents back since then. On the other hand, now Kinsler is paying him back.
He has to be joking. Espinoza hasn't even pitched since 2016. Manny Margot has been looking pretty good the last few months though. Since May 23rd: .294/.363/.444 with 20bb/30k in 201 PA. Of course, he'd have no place to play in Boston and everyone knew he'd be pretty good. He was the centerpiece in the Kimbrel deal.
Yes, I was joking. The amount of disgust on this site after both the Kimbrel trade and dealing away Espinosa was pretty remarkable. The “here goes Dombrowski dealing away all of our elite prospects!” Comments were running rampant. Nobody has apologized to him yet as far as I know. (This is a joke too)
He's only flying from Tampa to Boston, so I would think he'd have plenty of time. But I highly doubt he'll start today.
As we learned with Adrian Gonzalez, the trouble with getting excited about these park overlays is that it assumes the guy will get the same kinds of pitches at Fenway that he does at other parks. I.e., it assumes that pitchers are stupid.