I'm saying put some numbers behind it and let me look.So you're saying you disagree with my characterizations of his style of play?
I'm saying put some numbers behind it and let me look.So you're saying you disagree with my characterizations of his style of play?
Ok.I'm saying put some numbers behind it and let me look.
Exactly this.The Celtics traded a half dollar, two quarters and a dime for a dollar. The Celtics found out in embarrassing fashion last year that it's only the money in the billfold that matters in the end. I'm cool with this deal, even if it hurts a little.
I think some of these are concerning (though every NBA player has flaws so it's to be expected), some I don't find concerning at all, and some I disagree with the assumptions or conclusions you drew.Ok.
You can see how atrocious (historically bad, btw) he is defending the ball one-on-one here:
http://stats.nba.com/players/isolation/#!?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular Season&sort=FG&dir=-1&PerMode=Totals&CF=FG*GE*50oss*GE*50&OD=defensive
and here:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=2000&c2stat=usg_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=30&c3stat=dws&c3comp=lt&c3val=1.6&order_by=dws
No TT behind him in Boston so expect his negative effect on the Boston defense to be even worse than it was on Cleveland's.
He is most efficient at offense when taking an astounding 7 or more dribbles (he also takes more shots after 7 dribbles than 3-6 or almost as many as 2 or fewer bounces), which runs very counter to the direction I think some of us thought Boston would be moving in after IT (given their recent acquisitions of Gordo and Horford).
http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202681/shots-dash/
His extremely high ISO percentage has been covered by other posters in this thread but here you can see how reluctant he is to pass once he commits to driving (4th lowest among all NBA PGs)
http://stats.nba.com/players/drives/#!?sort=DRIVE_PASSES_PCT&dir=-1&CF=DRIVES*GE*5:GP*GE*50&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular Season&PlayerPosition=G
He has been playing with the greatest player in the world but as you can see here his Assist/TO ratio is hardly elite or even very good. He ranked 35th in the NBA this past year.
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/assistTurnoverRatio
Here, you can see that Irving who has the ball in his hands a lot, ranked 40th in assist % this year.
http://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/#!?sort=AST_PCT&dir=-1
Great post, thanks for unpacking.I think some of these are concerning (though every NBA player has flaws so it's to be expected), some I don't find concerning at all, and some I disagree with the assumptions or conclusions you drew.
The Cavs were 0-8 when James was out and Irving was playing last year. They aren't going to be worse with LeBron out next year.But to me, their real problem is going to be when LBJ goes out. As mentioned above, Kyrie can score pretty much on anyone when he's on. IT just isn't as gifted because of his lack of size.
Unless what they did was trade two half dollars, a quarter, and dime for a half dollar with a better looking obverse.The Celtics traded a half dollar, two quarters and a dime for a dollar. The Celtics found out in embarrassing fashion last year that it's only the money in the billfold that matters in the end. I'm cool with this deal, even if it hurts a little.
I think that they traded two half dollars, a quarter and a dime for a dollar.Unless what they did was trade two half dollars, a quarter, and dime for a half dollar with a better looking obverse.
They traded a $20 bill for a $10 dollar bill, a $5 dollar bill, some change, and a Mega Millions ticket with three correct numbers showing but an incorrect Match Ball.I think that they traded two half dollars, a quarter and a dime for a dollar.
Edit: awkward
True, and that's why I acknowledged that we should wait and see how they play under Stevens.My only problem with your otherwise good analysis is that it's very static.
The Celtics are banking on significant improvement from Hayward and Irving simply from their being used by the best NBA coach not named Popovich. I'd be surprised if we don't see both players in a completely different light after Brad figures out how to use them better.
It's certainly not a lock to happen, but there's probably a 75%+ chance that both players are somewhat better on the Celtics, a 30% chance that one takes a big leap, and a 10-20% chance of both doing so. That drastically improves the team's championship equity.
First and foremost, I meant when LBJ is sitting on the bench and particularly in the playoffs. No one cares what the Cavs do during the regular season.The Cavs were 0-8 when James was out and Irving was playing last year. They aren't going to be worse with LeBron out next year.
From a pure 'value of the pick' standpoint, sure, but it's also quite possible the pick ends up in the top 5 but the player drafted with it turns out to be not that good. Or, if the trade wasn't made and it ended up in the top 5, perhaps the right player is not available in trade and we couldn't even have gotten someone as good as Kyrie (plus we'd no longer have Isaiah's salary to include).If the Brooklyn pick falls out of the top 5 it was a good trade. If it lands in the top 5, it wasn't.
It will be strange to be rooting like hell for the Nets after rooting against them for the last two years.
I haven't heard it explained this way yet but this is a perfect analogy. There is the potential that they got a $20 bill in exchange for more. There is also the potential they traded a $20 bill for a good deal less. It's all dependent on Thomas's health and the 2018 lottery/They traded a $20 bill for a $10 dollar bill, a $5 dollar bill, some change, and a Mega Millions ticket with three correct numbers showing but an incorrect Match Ball.
I'm glad that you understood that one. I was about to ask him for a cup of hot fat and the Beatles white album.I haven't heard it explained this way yet but this is a perfect analogy. There is the potential that they got a $20 bill in exchange for more. There is also the potential they traded a $20 bill for a good deal less. It's all dependent on Thomas's health and the 2018 lottery/
Whether you prefer CARMELO, Bowiac's system, or something else: we know right now, within reasonable error bars, where the Nets are likely to end up at the end of the season. We can do out all the possibilities for both their performance, the lottery balls, and even the outcome distributions of next year's draft prospects. The odds of theirs being a top-5 pick are somewhere between 70-80%, and scouts are crowing over Ayton, Bamba et al. This isn't a deal that we'll need to evaluate only in retrospect, it's a deal we can evaluate right now.If the Brooklyn pick falls out of the top 5 it was a good trade. If it lands in the top 5, it wasn't.
It will be strange to be rooting like hell for the Nets after rooting against them for the last two years.
I think that what I've noticed is that NBA players and NBA sabermetricians seem to have a much higher opinion of Irving than NBA fans and outside sabermetricians (by which I mean guys like Kevin Pelton).One thing that seems pretty clear to me is that other NBA players have a much higher opinion of Kyrie Irving than I do (and than most people on this site seem to).
But suppose the Brooklyn pick falls in the top 5 but the Laker pick doesn't? That's the worst case. Imagine LeBron deciding to stay, with the Cavs adding Porter, Bagley or Ayton on top of what they already have.From a pure 'value of the pick' standpoint, sure, but it's also quite possible the pick ends up in the top 5 but the player drafted with it turns out to be not that good. Or, if the trade wasn't made and it ended up in the top 5, perhaps the right player is not available in trade and we couldn't even have gotten someone as good as Kyrie (plus we'd no longer have Isaiah's salary to include).
If the Lakers pick lands in the unprotected zone, it's likely one of the picks would almost have to be moved anyway, as developing two one and done bigs while trying to win would be pretty rough.
I wouldn't care, because that's a scenario where Lebron is sitting around getting old waiting for them to be good players.But suppose the Brooklyn pick falls in the top 5 but the Laker pick doesn't? That's the worst case. Imagine LeBron deciding to stay, with the Cavs adding Porter, Bagley or Ayton on top of what they already have.
Obviously no draft pick is ever "can't miss," if only because of the injury risk, but in the 2018 draft there are 5 studs with a high likelihood of NBA success, and then a fairly significant drop off in talent after that.
We saw this play out already with his patience with Andrew Wiggins.But suppose the Brooklyn pick falls in the top 5 but the Laker pick doesn't? That's the worst case. Imagine LeBron deciding to stay, with the Cavs adding Porter, Bagley or Ayton on top of what they already have.
Yeah, I can't really imagine such a scenario with Lebron staying and Cleveland not moving a top five pick for a "win now" piece. I suppose Gilbert could fuck it up, but in the unlikely event that Lebron stays, that pick is going to be used in a deal to make one last push at a championship.I wouldn't care, because that's a scenario where Lebron is sitting around getting old waiting for them to be good players.
I think the odds of LeBron remaining with Gilbert get more remote by the day. I joke about where he'll be next year on a regular basis, but I can see him teaming up with Griffin in LA next season. Or, frankly, even this season, with DAJ and Lou Williams providing the salary ballast and Dekker, Harrell, and draft picks the selling points for Cavs fans (the Clippers would need to acquire a pick to make that work, but I suspect Boston would gladly help them out with their superfluous 2018 pick).But suppose the Brooklyn pick falls in the top 5 but the Laker pick doesn't? That's the worst case. Imagine LeBron deciding to stay, with the Cavs adding Porter, Bagley or Ayton on top of what they already have.
Obviously no draft pick is ever "can't miss," if only because of the injury risk, but in the 2018 draft there are 5 studs with a high likelihood of NBA success, and then a fairly significant drop off in talent after that.
You make a good point overall but I don't think he was lowering his variance. He traded future talent for talent now. Brad and GH want to win a championship. And despite all of the hype of all of the prospects, the only guy who's likely to be able to impact a playoff series is Donecic and we don't know how his lack of athleticism is going to impact him in the NBA.He just decided that lowering his variance was the best championship-equity-maximizing move right now. Some here agree, others disagree, but it's a far less valid argument to say "I don't know, and nobody can know yet, we have to wait and see!".
Unless someone like Ayton turns out to be a good player right away, like Anthony Davis.I wouldn't care, because that's a scenario where Lebron is sitting around getting old waiting for them to be good players.
Kyrie also sat out 5 of the games Lebron missed.The Cavs were 0-8 when James was out and Irving was playing last year. They aren't going to be worse with LeBron out next year.
In this analogy, which of the two assets the Celtics gave up as half dollars are equal value to Kyrie Irving as a half dollar?Unless what they did was trade two half dollars, a quarter, and dime for a half dollar with a better looking obverse.
I assume he means the pick and IT. Of course it's not correct.In this analogy, which of the two assets the Celtics gave up as half dollars are equal value to Kyrie Irving as a half dollar?
There is no way that a top-5 pick in a loaded draft has only a 3% chance to be as good as Irving, CD. Let's review the top 10 of some recent drafts far enough back to evaluate the present haul:Zizic is a coin pulled randomly from a 40 pound bucket that is 85% pennies 12% nickles, 2.99% dimes with two quarters mixed in.
IT is a 50 cent piece
the pick is the Zizic bucket, except with quarters in place of pennies, 50c in place of nickels, same dimes, but 5-10 dollar coins and a single half eagle.
This is almost true--there are only two factors missing in your analysis.Danny Ainge sold his upside for a certain return now. He played Deal or No Deal, and took the banker's lowball offer. The one thing I'll say is that it's certainly not because the stress got to him, or he doesn't understand future value and discounting or something. We have to credit his intellect here. He just decided that lowering his variance was the best championship-equity-maximizing move right now. Some here agree, others disagree, but it's a far less valid argument to say "I don't know, and nobody can know yet, we have to wait and see!".
Seriously? You do realize that the Celtics have won 17 titles with some great ensembles? Among them (1) Bird, McHale, Parrish, Walton, (2) Russell, Havlicek, Heinsohn, Jones, (3) Garnett, Pierce, Allen.This is why I'm so excited. I would have been similarly excited to see IT with those two, but, as mentioned, last year's IT probably won't exist anymore.
I think that if they can find 2 guys on the current roster to be reliable shooters, lineups with those 3 are going to border on unguardable, and we simply haven't seen anything like that with the Celtics in pretty much ever. It's going to be very, very fun.
Sorry, my basketball-watching lifetimeSeriously? You do realize that the Celtics have won 17 titles with some great ensembles? Among them (1) Bird, McHale, Parrish, Walton, (2) Russell, Havlicek, Heinsohn, Jones, (3) Garnett, Pierce, Allen.
Fortunately all is calm in the realms of politics and meteorology.What a sports night! Edelman hurt, Nunez hurt, Sox lose, Celtics' blockbuster trade reversed...I assume some Bruin was crippled in a skimobile accident this afternoon.
It's probably a bit of a stretch on my part *it should probably be more in the 7-9 % range), but.... you also have to calculate the odds of where the pick lands. Currently most people project that based on projections of where the Nets finish mixed with lottery odds, the most likely position is 5. There are a lot of players you listed that nobody at 5 ever had a shot at.There is no way that a top-5 pick in a loaded draft has only a 3% chance to be as good as Irving, CD. Let's review the top 10 of some recent drafts far enough back to evaluate the present haul:
2012: Davis (1), Beal (3), Lillard (6), Drummond (9)
2011: Irving (1), K. Walker (9), plus Klay Thompson at 11 and Kawhi at 15, not to mention Mr Irrelevant
2010: Wall (1), Cousins (5), Hayward (9), Paul George (10)
2009: Griffin (1), Harden (3), Curry (7), DeRozan (9)
2008: Rose (1), Westbrook (4), Love (5), B. Lopez (10)
2007: Durant (2), Horford (3), Conley (4), Noah (9)
From that list, and let's call it 30 total top-5 picks, you have 3 of the league's 6 "alpha" players, good enough to be the best player on a championship team (Harden, Westbrook and Durant). You have 3 of the league's 12 "beta" players good enough to be the 2nd-best player on a typical championship team (Davis, Cousins, Griffin), and 5 "gamma" players good enough to be 3rd on a title winner (Beal, Irving, Wall, Love, Conley), of which 538 reckons 17 in the NBA. Plus a few other former-allstar players in Lopez, Rose, Noah et al. All told, from picks 1-5, that's 10% alpha, 10% beta, 17% gamma, 10% periodic all-star, ~50% starter/role-player/bust.
In picks # 6-10, you have 1 alpha player (Curry), 1 beta player (Hayward), and 4 gamma players (Lillard, George, Walker, DeRozan), so that's 3%, 3%, and 13%. Not terrible, but not nearly the same sort of odds.
If we take as given that the top of the 2018 draft is as loaded as the average of those 6 drafts, then 40% chance of a significant impact player, possibly an MVP candidate, is a damned good asset.
Multiply that through by the odds of the Nets' finish and the odds of the lottery balls, but let's not understate the value of that Nets pick if it ends up top-5.
I can't believe you had to post this.Seriously? You do realize that the Celtics have won 17 titles with some great ensembles? Among them (1) Bird, McHale, Parrish, Walton, (2) Russell, Havlicek, Heinsohn, Jones, (3) Garnett, Pierce, Allen.
Without taking a position on the actual probability distributions, I just wanted to say I really enjoyed the original extended bucket of coins analogy.It's probably a bit of a stretch on my part *it should probably be more in the 7-9 % range), but.... you also have to calculate the odds of where the pick lands. Currently most people project that based on projections of where the Nets finish mixed with lottery odds, the most likely position is 5. There are a lot of players you listed that nobody at 5 ever had a shot at.
That's why just looking at top 5s or top 7s and assuming an even chance of getting anyone drafted there is incorrect. The most likely position is 5th, and 1 is by far the least likely. So your analysis of 6-10 is closer to the likelihood than the 1-5.
I want you to pick all my lottery numbers and stocks from now on. Good call.A+ boston is going to the finals
Love J-manI want you to pick all my lottery numbers and stocks from now on. Good call.
The crazy thing is, the Cavs actually got a bit lucky with the pick, in that Lin immediately went out for the season. That pick could easily have been worse than 8, and that's probably how the Celtics internally projected it.So, with the lottery last night and Cavs getting the #8 pick, having seen Kyrie play up close, seeing IT and Crowder this year, I think Danny did ok.
Presti maybe? Especially this offseason.How many GMs have had worse performance to praise ratios than Koby Altman?
His tenure has primarily consisted of two trades, both of which he was widely lauded for: The Kyrie trade, and the deadline blowup.
His return:
1. an 8 pick and Jae Crowder for Kyrie Irving (in his prime with two more seasons under contract)
2. Rodney Hood and George Hill for Jae Crowder
3. Jordan Clarkson (unplayable) and Larry Nance Jr. (almost unplayable) for a late first rounder
That's really brutal, especially considering the public victory laps the Cavs were taking for those trades.