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Ranking the GM's: The draft history

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by grimshaw, Dec 6, 2017 at 3:03 PM.

  1. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    New threads are good. New threads are better during god awful off-seasons.

    I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at GM's and draft histories to see who hit and whiffed the most. I'll start with Dick O'Connell because eff that Pinky Higgins guy and end with Theo since Cherington's are still somewhat incomplete.

    Dick O'Connell - 1966 - 1977

    Biggest wins - Wade Boggs, Carlton Fisk, Jim Rice, Dwight Evans and Fred Lynn. 3 hall of famers, one should be and one could have been if he'd stayed healthy Bruce Hurst was also worth over 30 WAR.

    Solid contributers - John Tudor, Cecil Cooper, Ben Oglivie, Steamer Stanley, Rick Burleson, and Bill Lee. Cecil Cooper did little in Boston aside from a productive half season in '75 but was an all star several times in Milwaukee. Ben Oglivie showed nothing in Boston for parts of three seasons before having some good seasons in Detroit and Milwakee. Tudor was good in Boston but won 21 games with St. Louis in 1985.

    Other notable: Amos Otis, Roy Smalley, Johnny Grubb, Geoff Zahn, Donnie Moore, Don Aase, Ken Brett, Rick Miller, Gary Redus and Ernie Whiitt

    Best draft - 1976 where 8 players made the majors including Boggs, Hurst and Tudor.

    Worst and also his last draft - Gary Redus was the sole major league contributor and he never played in Boston.

    38 of his players made the majors in his 12 years. 5 of his first rounders failed to.

    Haywood Sullivan - 1978 - 1983

    Biggest wins - Roger Clemens, Ellis Burks and Mike Greenwell

    Solid Contributors - Oil Can Boyd, Matt Young (not in Boston).

    Other notables - Al Nipper, Todd Benzinger, Glenn Davis, Dave Magadan, and our namesake, Sam Horn.

    Best draft - 1983. When you draft one of the best pitchers of all time it's a win, but 7 others also made the majors.

    Worst draft - 1978. Matt Young was it.

    26 of his draftees made the majors in 6 years. He only whiffed with the first rounder in his first season.

    Lou Gorman - 1984 - 1993

    Biggest wins: Curt Schilling, Mo Vaughn, John Valentin, Aaron Sele, Trot Nixon and *cough* Jeff Bagwell

    Solid contributors - Scotts Cooper and Hatteberg, Jeff Suppan, Jody Reed, Paul Quantrill, Tim Naerhing, Phil Plantier and Brady Anderson

    Other notables: Joey Hamilton, Tino Martinez, Jack McDowell, and Todd Pratt

    Best draft: 1989 Jeff Bagwell and Mo Vaughn

    Worst draft: 1990 - Garr Finnvold was the big prize

    67 of his draftees made the majors in 10 years. 3 seasons his first rounder did not.

    Dan Duquette - 1994 - 2001

    Biggest Wins -Nomar and Kevin Youkilis. I guess Pavano belongs here for helping net Pedro

    Solid contributors - No secondary contributors - Manny Delcarmen?

    Other notables - The Teixeira debacle, Kelly Shoppach Freddy Sanchez, David Eckstein, Adam Everett, Loomer Loni Ed Sprague and Lenny Dinardo who still gets great deals on pizza.

    Best draft - '94 Nomar

    Worst draft - The non Youkilis and Nomar drafts were all terrible

    64 players made the majors in 8 years. 3 first rounders didn't make it.

    Mike Port - 2002

    Port had one draft and got Jon Lester and Brandon Moss so did very well for himself

    Theo Epstein - 2003--2011

    Biggest contributors - Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Anthony Rizzo (thanks for A-Gonz?), Jonathan Papelbon and JBJ

    Solid contributors - Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Christian Vazquez, Josh Reddick, Travis Shaw, and Matt Barnes

    Other notables - Brandon Belt, Charlie Blackmon, Pedro Alvarez, Yan Gomes, Josh Reddick, Steve Pearce, Yasmani Grandal, Kirby Yates and Hunter Strickland

    Best draft - His last one in 2011 got us Betts, JBJ, Travis Shaw and Matt Barnes

    Worst Draft - 2009 - Hazelbaker was the highlight
    66 players made the majors in his 8 seasons. All of his first picks made the majors.

    Edit to include international signings:

    Lou Gorman signed Rafael Betancourt as a SS.

    Duquette signed Hanley Ramirez, Anibel Sanchez and Jorge De La Rosa

    Theo signed Dice-K, Okajima, Xander Bogaerts and Manuel Margot

    Cherington signed Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers

    I'll leave it to you guys to analyze context, factoring things in like player pools, order of placement, gaming the system with lots of compensatory picks etc.
     
    #1 grimshaw, Dec 6, 2017 at 3:03 PM
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2017 at 11:04 PM
  2. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    David Murphy probably deserves to be a notable at the very least. Although I guess if you did that, there's Brandon Moss and a crapload of others.
     
  3. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Curious why Theo Epstein is listed as 2003-2004, 2006-2011? His sabattical was during the 2005-2006 off-season, so he was most definitely in charge of the 2005 draft that included Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, and Jed Lowrie.

    edit to add...but you do include Charlie Blackmon, who was drafted but unsigned in 2005 as an "other notable". Not sure why any player who was drafted but unsigned is a credit to any of these GMs.
     
  4. drleather2001

    drleather2001 given himself a skunk spot SoSH Member

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  5. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    Dick O'Connell was ridiculously productive. Cecil Cooper was a 5 time all-star and only makes it as a "solid contributor".
     
  6. John Marzano Olympic Hero

    John Marzano Olympic Hero has fancy plans, and pants to match Dope

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    I am angered as to why John Marzano is not listed here. He's a hero. An OLYMPIC hero!

    In all seriousness though, I had no idea that Dick O'Connell had that good of an eye for talent. That's a haul.
     
  7. curly2

    curly2 Member SoSH Member

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    O'Connell DID have a great eye for talent, but made some godawful trades, like Sparky Lyle for Danny Cater, and Ben Oglivie for Dick McAuliffe.

    It was easier for O'Connell than for later GMs, though. There were only 24 teams in his day, so the draft wasn't as diluted. His drafting record is still very good.
     
  8. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Per that page, Davis was drafted by the Orioles in June 1979, the Red Sox in January 1980, the Astros in January 1981, and the Rangers in June 1983 (baffling since he'd been in the Astros minor leagues for two years).

    As pointed out before, the OP is crediting unsigned draftees to all the GMs listed, which makes zero sense whatsoever.
     
  9. RGREELEY33

    RGREELEY33 Potty Mouth Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Was anyone else stunned by just how bad Duquette’s draft record was?

    Awful. Youk and Nomar was really it?

    I too had no idea Dick O’Connell was such a beast. That has to be as impressive as almost any other GM over that timeframe.
     
  10. Sampo Gida

    Sampo Gida lurker

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    Seems Dan D should get credit for Freddy Sanchez and MDC. Hanley and Anibal Sanchez of course were not drafted but AFA

    Oops-didnt see MDC and FS first read, sorry
     
    #10 Sampo Gida, Dec 6, 2017 at 5:45 PM
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2017 at 6:00 PM
  11. BoSox Rule

    BoSox Rule Member SoSH Member

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    Clay Buchholz was another solid contributor for Theo.
     
  12. Sampo Gida

    Sampo Gida lurker

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    Justin Duschescher, Aaron Harang, Shea Hillenbrand also under Dan D

    Interesting how Curt Schilling (Big Win) and Brady Anderson (solid) got us all of Mike Boddicker for 3 yrs but Teixera who did not sign out of HS (9th round) was a fiasco (the handling not great but saved us from 5 mediocre years of Teixeira later on)
     
  13. Sampo Gida

    Sampo Gida lurker

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    As was Ellsbury and Lowrie in 2005. Charlie Blackmon drafted that year but unsigned.

    Theo did not draft these guys as they were international but throwing it out there. Daisuke, Jose iglesias, Boegarts, Tazawa
     
  14. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  15. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    Good point, although calling Clay Buchholz "solid" in any context seems....odd.
     
  16. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    Missed the Theo thing - I was going by Soxprospects who had Cherington/Hoyer listed for the draft that season. I'll edit. I was going to do Cherington up through 2014 but ran out of time before work.

    I'm not sure why that matters so much to you about Blackmon and others. The notables are just notable big league players - I didn't give GMs extra credit for drafting them. I think it's interesting how many big names Theo drafted even if he knew they weren't signable. Other Sox GM's rarely bothered and I think it showed foresight to at least have conversations with those guys to give them an idea of the quality of the organization.
     
    #16 grimshaw, Dec 6, 2017 at 10:03 PM
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2017 at 10:25 PM
  17. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    Probably should have. I was doing notables in terms of either good players they drafted but did almost nothing in Boston, or were 10 WAR or better for their career but not major cogs.
     
  18. BoSox Rule

    BoSox Rule Member SoSH Member

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    He didn’t turn in to a consistent #1 starter like he looked as one of the two or three top prospects in the game but he threw a no-hitter, had a few seasons right around 3 fWar, and had several stretches where he looked like one of the better pitchers in baseball. He was a big hit as somebody drafted in the low 40s overall.
     
  19. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    It's a bit early to close the book on Ben Cherington from just the amateur draft but it looks pretty mediocre. I did edit the OP to included international signings and Moncada and Devers helps the resume.

    Benintendi is likely to be the biggest contributor from his run. Guys like Marrero, Brian Johnson, Sam Travis and Austin Maddox look to be bit players though the latter two have time. Carlos Asuaje held his own in San Diego

    Through his 2015 drafts we'll see about Chavis, Ockimey and Beeks, but those look like the main guys who have a shot at contributing something. Jamie Callahan and Mauricio Dubon have a chance with their new organizations as well.
     
  20. StuckOnYouk

    StuckOnYouk Member SoSH Member

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    Theo drafting Ryan Westmoreland in the 5th round of the 2008 draft could have been an immense pick. Kid had all the tools, kicked ass in his first taste of play with Lowell (5 tool player, 159 wRC+, 19 for 19 in steals, defensive skills) and could have been up there with the other big names like Betts, Rizzo, etc.
    Sucks thinking about it again.
     
  21. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    In that sense, Dernell Stenson was always a highly ranked prospect under the DD era. He dominated AAA as a 20 and 21 year old but then struggled in his 3rd and 4th go at AAA, maybe boredom. He finally got his chance with the Reds and looked like he was going to have a career, and then was murdered by his ex.
     
  22. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    I haven't been keeping on the research. Is there any evidence that drafting well is a repeatable skill? (Though I presume that drafting poorly can be repeatable.)

    I only say this because there is a huge difference in contexts between Theo's drafts and Ben's draft if we are simply looking at results. Seems to me that being able to leverage the large market financial resources during Theo's years was a large part of why he was able to get players like Betts (etc.).
     
  23. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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  24. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    But Ben also had higher picks. Hopefully that arm slot works out for Trey Ball but I doubt it. Maybe he can be a useful hitter.
     
  25. turnthe2

    turnthe2 lurker

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    Fascinating topic and thread.

    Question for the mass: should players drafted and not signed be counted as positives or negatives for draft history? While recognizing the talent is a positive, not being able to close the deal could be counted against them. Perhaps a discussion for a separate thread.
     
  26. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    They shouldn't count as negatives because most of those picks were taken in later rounds due to signability issues or because everyone knew they were going to college. Theo would draft a lot of these guys and even sign a few.
     
  27. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Should they be credits to the GM if they were taken with the knowledge that they weren't going to sign? Seems like a waste of a pick, even in the later rounds, if there's no expectation that they'll get the player. Sure, maybe he should be acknowledged for recognizing the talent, but if the only reason the guy was there to be taken was because everyone else knew he was headed to college, how special was the recognition behind drafting him?
     
  28. BCsMightyJoeYoung

    BCsMightyJoeYoung Member SoSH Member

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    We'll .. I don't think any GM drafts a player they absolutely know they can't sign. Other than that it's a risk reward scenario. Take a flyer on player A who projects to be a really good player but you only have a 10% chance of signing .. or a sure thing who projects as far less.

    There's also the scenario where you don't really know how much will be left in your signing pool until you have signed all the higher picks that you really want to sign.

    Edit: not to mention you may want to draft a player you know you can't sign if you want to block some other club from getting him.
     
  29. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    The draft used to be long enough that teams would make nepotism picks all the time. It's how the Dodgers ended up with Mike Piazza. I don't think it should count against any organization because those picks have next to no value anyway and all teams did/do it. Plus, the one time it does work makes up for a lot of wasted picks. But then again, Mike Piazza.
     
  30. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    Most of the big names they drafted but didn't sign were well after round 10.
    Blackmon and McDowell for example, were both drafted in the 20th round. By that time in the draft, the odds of any players actually reaching the majors are miniscule.

    The only meaningful contributor they have ever drafted in the late rounds was Bill Lee in the 22nd.
     
  31. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    If it wasn't clear, I agree that the GMs shouldn't be dinged for not signing them. Nor should they be dinged for any notion of a "wasted" pick. I just don't think that picking a guy in the 20th round that doesn't sign is worth noting at all, even if he eventually turns out to be a useful player after being drafted by another team. It's trivia, but nothing more.
     

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