Rajai Davis to Red Sox

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I also think this move means we've seen the last of Brock Holt, outfielder.

I'd say it means the impending end of Holt, period. Nunez fills his role adequately enough and that means a bench of Nunez, Leon, Young and Davis plus a specialist for the playoffs (assuming a shorter pen).

I'd probably rather a defensive stud like Marrero or a pinch hitter with some pop like Brentz over Holt who brings very little to the table at the moment. His one skill, versatility, is covered by Nunez, so unless he can start hitting before JBJ and Pedroia get healthy, he's a wasted roster spot on a playoff team.

 

[semsox]

Does this push them over luxury tax now?

According to RedSoxPayroll on twitter, they're about 1 M under. No way they take the route they did with building this team and then torpedo it in late August with a move like this.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

I think Young isn't redundant because he can still support corner OF, PH for Moreland against LHRP, and bat the occasional DH game vs LHSP. That works out even if/when JBJ and Pedey are back.

So Chris Young (91 PA: 205/319/295 and 66 wRC+ vs LHP) is our 4th outfielder/RH pinch-hitter and DH vs LHSP whilst Rajai Davis (116 PA: 255/319/396 and 92 wRC+ vs LHP) isn't? Still don't get how they complement each other - seems to me that Davis can do whatever Young can do a little bit better plus he has plus speed to boot.

(He may compliment him because I hear he's a nice guy but I'd say he supersedes him rather than complements him on the team)

 

[Bergs]

So Chris Young (91 PA: 205/319/295 and 66 wRC+ vs LHP) is our 4th outfielder/RH pinch-hitter and DH vs LHSP whilst Rajai Davis (116 PA: 255/319/396 and 92 wRC+ vs LHP) isn't? Still don't get how they complement each other - seems to me that Davis can do whatever Young can do a little bit better plus he has plus speed to boot.

(He may compliment him because I hear he's a nice guy but I'd say he supersedes him rather than complements him on the team)

They could both play against lefties and give 10D (and JBJ when he comes back) a bit of rest for the remainder of the regular season, but I agree with your larger point come playoff time.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I've been on the Rajai Davis train for years. Can't state enough how much this move helps the 2017 Sox. Dude is still pretty damn fast can hit a little and play adequate defense. This is essentially the Dave Roberts acquisition part deux. Great low key deal.

 

[BaseballJones]

I always hated it when he'd come up to bat against the Sox. Totally irrational because his career numbers against Boston aren't very good (.242/.290/.364/.653), but still.

He's a solid player and should be pretty helpful for this team down the stretch. Nice move.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

They could both play against lefties and give 10D (and JBJ when he comes back) a bit of rest for the remainder of the regular season, but I agree with your larger point come playoff time.

But that's complementing Benintendi, not Young. And JBJ has been better against lefties than anyone on the team save Devers (in 26 PAs) and Travis (35 PAs).

There are only 5 guys on the team with >100 RC+ in 40+ PAs against lefties:

Player       PA   avg     ob%     slg    RC+    HR
Bradley     109  .333    .422    .495    144     3
Pedroia      66  .333    .462    .471    143     1
Marrero(!)   50  .304    .340    .609    140     3
Vazquez      41  .282    .317    .513    112     2
Betts       115  .278    .383    .433    111     3

 

[Plympton91]

So Chris Young (91 PA: 205/319/295 and 66 wRC+ vs LHP) is our 4th outfielder/RH pinch-hitter and DH vs LHSP whilst Rajai Davis (116 PA: 255/319/396 and 92 wRC+ vs LHP) isn't? Still don't get how they complement each other - seems to me that Davis can do whatever Young can do a little bit better plus he has plus speed to boot.

(He may compliment him because I hear he's a nice guy but I'd say he supersedes him rather than complements him on the team)

Why do you think that we should only use the 91 at bats against lefties Young has had this year to evaluate his likely future production? Given how small a sample size 91 at bats is in the grand coin flip of baseball games, should you at least put a reasonable amount of weight on his statistics from last year, and a lesser but still meaningful among on his stats from 2015? Or is there a reason to think that Young has all of a sudden changed his skill set / approach in such a way that he's no longer effective against lefties, while hitting righties as well or better than he always has?

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

So Chris Young (91 PA: 205/319/295 and 66 wRC+ vs LHP) is our 4th outfielder/RH pinch-hitter and DH vs LHSP whilst Rajai Davis (116 PA: 255/319/396 and 92 wRC+ vs LHP) isn't? Still don't get how they complement each other - seems to me that Davis can do whatever Young can do a little bit better plus he has plus speed to boot.

(He may compliment him because I hear he's a nice guy but I'd say he supersedes him rather than complements him on the team)

I think you misunderstand what seems to be quite a likely Farrell strategy, regarding the 4th vs 5th OF debate once JBJ returns.

There are two starters who Farrell has shown willingness to platoon against LHP this season: Moreland and Benintendi. I expect that Farrell would be willing to PH for either of them in the future, since he's done so already. Farrell has not platooned JBJ at any point this season, at least to my recollection; Holt, I believe, will be a non-factor going forward since his main role will likely be to backup MI to give Bogaerts and Nunez a day off. So I don't find it reasonable to think either of those guys will see a PH replacement in the late innings.

Along with this assumption, it's important to note that Farrell is unlikely to bat a PH for any of the RHH except Vazquez, and only when he's hitting against an RHP in the late innings or extras.

Benintendi and Moreland are not generally placed in the lineup such that a single LOOGY is likely to be used against both of them in the same inning. Moreland is more likely to have a LOOGY brought in first, since he has generally been followed in the lineup by C and CF, while Benintendi is generally followed by Mookie and Hanley.

Therefore, having Young brought in to hit for Moreland first makes sense, because if he's going to be replaced in the field by another IF, you're not going to want to burn Davis's overall better skill set on one PH appearance where the expectation of marginal benefit is based entirely on SSS.

Of course, all of this assumes JBJ returns from his thumb injury this season. Until that should happen, Davis is the everyday CF and Young is the 4th OF.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I just hope he wins everyone in the US a free taco.

Except for the President. Screw that guy.

 

[Plympton91]

I think you misunderstand what seems to be quite a likely Farrell strategy, regarding the 4th vs 5th OF debate once JBJ returns.

There are two starters who Farrell has shown willingness to platoon against LHP this season: Moreland and Benintendi. I expect that Farrell would be willing to PH for either of them in the future, since he's done so already. Farrell has not platooned JBJ at any point this season, at least to my recollection; Holt, I believe, will be a non-factor going forward since his main role will likely be to backup MI to give Bogaerts and Nunez a day off. So I don't find it reasonable to think either of those guys will see a PH replacement in the late innings.

Along with this assumption, it's important to note that Farrell is unlikely to bat a PH for any of the RHH except Vazquez, and only when he's hitting against an RHP in the late innings or extras.

Benintendi and Moreland are not generally placed in the lineup such that a single LOOGY is likely to be used against both of them in the same inning. Moreland is more likely to have a LOOGY brought in first, since he has generally been followed in the lineup by C and CF, while Benintendi is generally followed by Mookie and Hanley.

Therefore, having Young brought in to hit for Moreland first makes sense, because if he's going to be replaced in the field by another IF, you're not going to want to burn Davis's overall better skill set on one PH appearance where the expectation of marginal benefit is based entirely on SSS.

Of course, all of this assumes JBJ returns from his thumb injury this season. Until that should happen, Davis is the everyday CF and Young is the 4th OF.

This was really perceptive and well argued.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

[

I think you misunderstand what seems to be quite a likely Farrell strategy, regarding the 4th vs 5th OF debate once JBJ returns.

There are two starters who Farrell has shown willingness to platoon against LHP this season: Moreland and Benintendi. I expect that Farrell would be willing to PH for either of them in the future, since he's done so already. Farrell has not platooned JBJ at any point this season, at least to my recollection; Holt, I believe, will be a non-factor going forward since his main role will likely be to backup MI to give Bogaerts and Nunez a day off. So I don't find it reasonable to think either of those guys will see a PH replacement in the late innings.

Along with this assumption, it's important to note that Farrell is unlikely to bat a PH for any of the RHH except Vazquez, and only when he's hitting against an RHP in the late innings or extras.

Benintendi and Moreland are not generally placed in the lineup such that a single LOOGY is likely to be used against both of them in the same inning. Moreland is more likely to have a LOOGY brought in first, since he has generally been followed in the lineup by C and CF, while Benintendi is generally followed by Mookie and Hanley.

Therefore, having Young brought in to hit for Moreland first makes sense, because if he's going to be replaced in the field by another IF, you're not going to want to burn Davis's overall better skill set on one PH appearance where the expectation of marginal benefit is based entirely on SSS.

Of course, all of this assumes JBJ returns from his thumb injury this season. Until that should happen, Davis is the everyday CF and Young is the 4th OF.

Fairly logical except for Davis as the everyday CF. He's not a good fielder and putting him in CF would be a disaster. Benentendi moves to CF with Young in LF - mixed in occasionally with Davis.

Edit: implying that Beni will not be platooned.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

I also think that Beni in CF and Davis in LF would be better defensively than vice-versa. But perhaps Davis in CF would be an indication that they don't think JBJ will be out more than 10 days, so they don't want to move Beni back and forth for a short period. But we may not know until we actually see how they play it - Brock is in LF tonight.

 

[Van Everyman]

Davis is RHH.

This will teach me to post when my children wake me up at the crack of dawn.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Fairly logical except for Davis as the everyday CF. He's not a good fielder and putting him in CF would be a disaster.

FWIW, he rates almost exactly average for his career in CF. This year, in 572 innings, UZR has him below average at -5.7 UZR/150, but DRS has him at just -1. Inside Edge has him at 33% of Unlikely, 50% of Even, and 100% of Likely and Routine. He has generally been better in CF than LF over his career (UZR/150: -7.7 in LF, +0.7 in CF), and has played significantly more innings there. We'll miss JBJ out there, but "disaster" seems a bit overblown.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

Why do you think that we should only use the 91 at bats against lefties Young has had this year to evaluate his likely future production? Given how small a sample size 91 at bats is in the grand coin flip of baseball games, should you at least put a reasonable amount of weight on his statistics from last year, and a lesser but still meaningful among on his stats from 2015? Or is there a reason to think that Young has all of a sudden changed his skill set / approach in such a way that he's no longer effective against lefties, while hitting righties as well or better than he always has?

Ok I've now compared both by weighting the last 5 years by # of PA's and discounting at 10%pa and there isn't that much between them.
Rajai has the higher BA (275 to 252) but CY walk more (and strikes out less) and has the higher OB% (350 to 330). They slug about the same (RD: 443, CY: 440) and have similar RC+ (RD: 112, CY: 116). The big difference, of course, comes in SBs where Davis swiped 12 per 150 PA season and was successful at a .841 rate and Young took just 1 a year and was successful at a .625 clip.

So again, there isn't that much between them offensively beyond the speed. My whole point was that I didn't see how Davis "complemented" Young. To me to say someone complements someone else it means that each brings a different skill to the team that the other doesn't have (or is less talented at) so they can be used in a platoon so that the whole is better than the average of the parts.

There are two starters who Farrell has shown willingness to platoon against LHP this season: Moreland and Benintendi. I expect that Farrell would be willing to PH for either of them in the future, since he's done so already.

Farrell has certainly shown a willingness to platoon MM and AB when there are lefty starters (Moreland has started just 7/28 games when a lefty has started; Benny has started 15/28) but there have only been 3 instances (in 102 starts) where Farrell has pinch hit for Moreland (and none since May) and AB has only been lifted once this year and that was immediately following the 8-run 6th when the Sox took a 9-0 lead v StL this month (the only game that uk_sox_fan has been able to attend this year!). Most of the time Mitch has left a game early it's been for a pinch runner.

The 3 pinch hits for MM:
1. 4/26 dn 3-0 to NY in b9 0 outs runners on 2nd & 3rd facing Chapman he went to Young (Young hit rbi grnd out, sox lost 3-1)
2. 5/14 dn 4-2 to TBR in b8 1 out runner on 1st facing Jose Alvarado he again went to Young. Cash countered by going to Ryne Stanek (Young lined out to CF. Sox lost 11-2)
3. 5/28 dn 3-0 to Sea leading off b8 Farrell went to Travis. (FO-9, Sox lost 5-0)

So I think it's an exaggeration to say Farrell's shown a willingness to PH for them this year.

 

[geoflin]

As the Sox are 0-3 and have been outscored 36-9 since his arrival, should they send Davis back? He must be wondering which pennant race he is now a part of.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

As the Sox are 0-3 and have been outscored 36-9 since his arrival, should they send Davis back? He must be wondering which pennant race he is now a part of.

Reverse jinx! Well done.

 

[8slim]

Why does Davis lead off? I know this being SoSH the response is that lineup order doesn't really matter. But what sense is there in having the worst hitter in the lineup get the most plate appearances? I know he's fast, and since the days of Vince Coleman managers love to have poor hitting fast guys lead off because steals! It's just so illogical though.