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Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by RedOctober3829, Dec 30, 2018.
Oooh, ahhhh, I don’t know Jim, it’s the same formation so it’s probably the same play. Here we go!
Speaking of schedules, here's a look ahead to 2019...
Lots of NFC East.
Probably get Eagle-Fouts
All of it, actually
Cowboys, Giants, Steelers, Mahomes, Mayfield? That's quite a slate of out of division home games.
12 - 4
I counted 11 because there will be a dumb loss in there to someone in the division.
Another road game in Miami? Ugh.
Not sure where the best place to put this but interesting stat: the top 6 QBs in terms of annual contract value all missed the playoffs.
Dallas, Houston and KC are the westernmost teams on the 2019 slate, and the only 3 west of the Mississippi. And since Dallas & KC come to Foxboro, the Houston trip is the farthest west they’ll go. That seems like a good thing from a wear-and-tear perspective.
So the first game of the 2019 season will be Kansas City at New England. Early odds says Vegas has Patriots favoured by 6, over/under at 62 ½.
Last year, the top 4 didn't make it and neither did 6 through 9 (Brees was 5), according to this:
I hope you are right but I think the spread will be closer to 4
Where did you get it that the Pats are opening 2019 regular season against KC? I thought they only announced opponents not the schedule at this time?
We are wishcasting.
You do know what the first game of each NFL season is, yes?
More likely is Cleveland at New England or Dallas at New England Baker Mayfield vs. Tom Brady or Zeke/Dak and America’s Team vs. Brady.
Cleveland seems very unlikely.
2018 visiting team was a rematch of the Divisional round (and the previous-previous year's Super Bowl loser)
2017 the #2 seed, not an actual rematch of a playoff game
2016 the losing SB team
2015 the #3 seed, not an actual rematch
2014 the #4 seed, not a rematch
2013 #1 seed in rematch of Divisional round
2012 non-playoff team, divisional rivalry (Dallas)
2011 #5 seed & previous year's SB winner
2010 rematch of NFCCG, #2 seed
2009 #1 seed, not a rematch
2008 #6 seed, divisional rivalry, not a rematch
2007 #2 seed in opposite conference, New Orleans
2006 Miami, a non-playoff team, for some reason
2005 Oakland, a non-playoff team, for some reason (Tuck rule 3 years earlier?)
2004 AFCCG rematch, #3 seed
Almost every case there's been a good playoff reason to schedule the visitor. If we assume a Patriots SB win, Dallas makes sense if they make the SB or just as a ratings grab, or KC makes sense as the #1 seed & potentially an AFCCG rematch. KC is the obvious candidate.
I would think the Cowboys game could be a thanksgiving game no? IMO its either going to be week 1 (primetime) or thanksgiving... That's if NFL wants the best ratings
Also.. I think we should split this out of the Playoff schedule thread
Cowboys games tend to be in Dallas on Thanksgiving
This is why people hate Patriots fans.
Because we get bored during our every season bye weeks?
Could make a case that CBS will want to protect a KC/NE game for later in the season as that is a marquee AFC game.
An outside the box option is the Giants especially if Eli comes back. NY market, Brady/Eli history.
I don't think CBS gets to make that call.
Sure they do. Each network gets to protect a game or two each year.
Cool - is there anywhere I can read more about those rules?
The most valuable player in all of sports is a good QB on a cheap contract - usually a rookie contract but not always.
Pats seem to have trouble with Places that start with "Mi".
I do not want to play the Astros at home.
How do you explain Brady's success at his alma mater then?
In that instance, he was on Team Mi. In fact, it makes sense that Mi is now his kryptonite. He was forged in the fires of Mi and now it's the only thing that can hurt him.
I wonder who the most expensive (as a percentage of his team's payroll) QB to ever win a Super Bowl was?
I originally thought 2015 Denver would have been up there, but surprisingly, Peyton only took up 11.66% of their cap.
Brady's cap hit % his last two SB runs:
- 2014: 10.64%
- 2016: 8.62%
Eli in 2011 took up 11.61% of his team's cap space. Heh.
Its interesting until you realize most of them were hurt or suck. ACV is a bad way to measure this. By cap hit, Jimmy G, Carr, Stafford, Flacco and Luck are top 5. Then Brees, cousins, Wilson, Rapist, Eli.
The issue isn’t overpaid QBs. It does not help at all if they take up cap but Luck, Brees, , Wilson, Cousins and Big Ben have plenty of talent. Jimmy was hurt.
Flacco everyone knew was a no win, Eli is cooked.
Carr who knows.
I don’t disagree with the premise but they aren’t losing because one guy is overpaid. If you look back historically I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a pattern
Explains why the Pats have never beaten the Brewers on the road
I agree - the problem is mostly the timing of these contracts for mid tier QBs that pay them like top tier QBs.
I will say I am on record as saying the Ravens should have moved on from Flacco post 2012. They’d be in much better shape. Would have been a tough sell off a title though.
Wow that’s good. Nerd.
We've had this discussion before but I couldn't find it. At any rate, Steve Young is the highest at 13.1%. Only 4 QBs have won who accounted for more than 11%: Young, Brady, Peyton (twice) and Eli.
It's a lot easier to build a SB winning team if the QB is good and on a rookie contract. However, the converse - SB contenders require a rookie K QB - is not true, I agree with you.
Ravens are in such a weird place since they are still paying the QB position a ton of money but Ozzie has stocked up on draft picks over the past few years and IMO has gotten average to above-average production out of a lot of them, which I guess makes up for Flacco's lack of production. They have a ton of guys who play regularly who are on cheap or first contracts.
That 2015 Broncos team was amazing. Peyton taking up all that cap space (2nd most ever for a SB-winning QB), but he was TERRIBLE that season. And yet despite Peyton taking up all that cap space, they still managed to put together good skill players (Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson at RB combined for 1583 rushing yards (4.41 avg) and 12 TDs on the ground and nearly 50 receptions. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders went 105 rec, 1304 yds and 76 rec, 1135 yds, respectively. And they had a nice three-headed monster at TE in Vernon Davis, Virgil Green, and Owen Daniels, who combined for 78 rec and 891 yds.
And their D was tremendous. Playmakers everywhere.
How did they manage to assemble all that OTHER talent, despite Manning taking up so much of the cap? Pretty amazing job by Elway putting that team together.
If I remember correctly, Elway signed some veterans - Chris Harris? Ware? Talib? - to deals that were cap friendly in 2015 as a "Last Hurrah for Peyton" but created dead money in future years.
Ah, the essence of GFIN. Well, it worked.
And fuck BB for not putting Chung on him in 2015 AFCG.
Harris was always a Bronco - they signed Ware, Talib and Ward after the 2013 SB embarrassment. Elway has been awful finding a QB, but he did a masterful job drafting a lot of that defense in the late rounds - Jackson was a fifth, Trevathan was a sixth and Harris and Barrett were undrafted, plus they picked up Marshall off the street.
Good News is i dont think any Playoff teams have an "Mi" that will come into play!