Playoff Roster Construction

[RedOctober3829]

As of today....

INF(9): Vazquez, Leon, Ramirez, Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers, Marrero, Nunez
OF(4): Benintendi, Betts, Bradley, Davis
SP(4): Sale, Pomeranz, Porcello, Rodriguez
RP(8): Kimbrel, Reed, Price, Kelly, Smith, Workman, Barnes, Abad

This is presuming Nunez is ready to go. If not, then I guess I have to add Holt. I want Marrero on the roster over Young as Marrero can offer late-inning defense for Devers while holding his own against lefties. I don't think Young should be on the roster, but Farrell loves him so that may win him the day. I'm keeping Abad because his numbers are good and he can face both RH and LH hitters.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

They can't trust Pedey's and Nunez's health, so they HAVE to have at least Marrero or Holt on the roster. I agree that Young shouldn't be on it unless maybe Nunez can't go. R.Davis has replaced Young's bat and glove and is a better baserunner.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Okay, so I think Holt and Fister both locked up spots. If Nunez is good to go, he'll bump Marrero and Holt will be the late inning defensive replacement for Devers. Davis beats out Young for the 4th OF spot. I think 10 pitchers are locked in. Pitcher # 11 is probably Scott vs Abad, and I think Abad wins that because he's not strictly a LOOGY. Also, the Skipper seems to have lost some faith in Scott down the stretch given how little he's been used over the past couple of weeks.
The 25th spot comes down to whether an extra bat(Young), defender(Marrero), or pitcher(Barnes or Workman) is the direction they choose. I'd guess it's a coin flip between Young and Barnes.

INF: Ramirez, Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers, Holt, Nunez
C: Vazquez, Leon
OF: Benintendi, Betts, Bradley, Davis
P: Sale, Pomeranz, Porcello, Fister, Rodriguez, Kimbrel, Reed, Price, Smith, Kelly, Abad

EDIT--if today was an audition, Scott is in and Abad is out. Workman is definitely out too.

 

[simplicio]

I think Marrero has to be in there as a defensive sub. I'd like to see him get the Keuchel start too.

 

[RedOctober3829]

PeteAbe says Farrell is carrying only 11 pitchers. So Abad/Maddox are out. They’ll probably carry Holt and Marrero.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

So it might come down to Barnes vs Scott and Young vs Marrero

 

[soxhop411]

PeteAbe says Farrell is carrying only 11 pitchers. So Abad/Maddox are out. They’ll probably carry Holt and Marrero.

I assume the only reason they are doing this is because of the health issues for Nunez and pedroia. If both were healthy they may have carried the extra pitcher

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I assume the only reason they are doing this is because of the health issues for Nunez and pedroia. If both were healthy they may have carried the extra pitcher

Maybe, but with the off days, a 12th pitcher really is rarely needed.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I assume the only reason they are doing this is because of the health issues for Nunez and pedroia. If both were healthy they may have carried the extra pitcher

It is definitely about the health of Nunez and Pedroia. Farrell said as much.

But in a short series, particularly one that will have two off days if it goes the distance, the need to carry 12 pitchers is less regardless of the health of other players. After all, the 12th pitcher during the regular season is the 5th starter. There's no 5th starter in the post-season. Heck, there may not be a 4th starter, so the pen is still at full strength if not deeper than usual.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

so we're looking at...

IF (6): Devers, Pedroia, Moreland, X, Holt, Marrero
DH: Hanley
OF (5): Benintendi, JBJ, Mookie, Davis, Young
C (2): Leon, Vazquez

SP / long relief (6): Sale, Pomeranz, ERod, Porcello, Fister, Price
RP (5): Kimbrel, Reed, Kelly, two of Smith/Barnes/Scott

 

[RedOctober3829]

so we're looking at...

IF (6): Devers, Pedroia, Moreland, X, Holt, Marrero
DH: Hanley
OF (5): Benintendi, JBJ, Mookie, Davis, Young
C (2): Leon, Vazquez

SP / long relief (6): Sale, Pomeranz, ERod, Porcello, Fister, Price
RP (5): Kimbrel, Reed, Kelly, two of Smith/Barnes/Scott

Why are they carrying 5 starters? I'd rather have another reliever because the only time the 5th starter would pitch is in a long relief situation. I'd carry 4 starters then Kimbrel/Reed/Price/Smith/Kelly/Workman/Barnes. The need for a lefty specialist in this series isn't high so I'd leave Scott off. I had Abad on for a while but today he did not pitch well. I begrudgingly kept Barnes on.

 

[bosockboy]

so we're looking at...

IF (6): Devers, Pedroia, Moreland, X, Holt, Marrero
DH: Hanley
OF (5): Benintendi, JBJ, Mookie, Davis, Young
C (2): Leon, Vazquez

SP / long relief (6): Sale, Pomeranz, ERod, Porcello, Fister, Price
RP (5): Kimbrel, Reed, Kelly, two of Smith/Barnes/Scott

Assuming Nunez is out?

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Assuming Nunez is out?

welp, I failed right out the gate.

IF (7): Devers, Pedroia, Moreland, X, Nunez, Holt, Marrero
DH: Hanley
OF (4): Benintendi, JBJ, Mookie, Davis/Young
C (2): Leon, Vazquez

SP (4): Sale, Pomeranz, ERod, one of Fister/Porcello
RP (7): Kimbrel, Reed, Kelly, Price, Smith, Barnes, Scott/someone else

If they're set on having insurance for Nunez/Pedey is Young just plain off the roster at this point?

 

[AB in DC]

If they're set on having insurance for Nunez/Pedey is Young just plain off the roster at this point?

His only role would be to start over Benintendi vs. Keuchel and maybe PH against Liriano (if he makes the roster in the first place). I'm not convinced that's enough value for a 5th OF with mediocre speed and below-average defense.

 

[BigPapiMPD34]

Here is my ALDS roster, assuming we play Houston. Key notes for this series is that Houston only has 2 LHHs in their lineup and its nobody scary (Reddick & McCann); While they have a RHH heavy lineup, our bullpen is stacked with righty killers and our LH SPs are surprisingly good vs RHHs. Their RH power hitters could take advantage of the Monster. They are also terrible at throwing out baserunners. The combo of LH SPs and Vazquez/Leon should limit the Astro's running game. One down note is that practically every hitter is horrible vs Verlander in their career. Things to look out for these last 4 regular season games is Nunez' health, Porcello vs Fister, and the performance of Barnes/Workman. Note that if we make the ALCS, that roster could change drastically.

Starters:
LF: Benintendi
CF: Bradley, Jr.
RF: Betts
3B: Devers
SS: Bogaerts
2B: Pedroia
1B: Moreland
DH: Ramirez
C: Vazquez

Bench:
C: Leon (catches Sale)
OF: Young (starts at DH vs Keuchel; Ramirez shifts to 1B)
OF: Davis (primary pinch runner)
INF: Nunez (starts at 3B vs Keuchel; secondary pinch runner)
INF: Marrero (late inning defensive replacement at 3B)

Rotation:
SP 1: Sale
SP 2: Pomeranz
SP 3: Porcello (most likely to get rocked, so have him pitch after off day with full bullpen available; open to swapping with Fister)
SP 4: Rodriguez

Bullpen:
CL: Kimbrell
8th: Reed
RH: Smith (perfect for getting out of jams with runners on base)
LH: Price (perfect if need multiple innings as bridge to Reed/Kimbrell)
RH: Kelly (middle relief; RHH .191 BAA)
RH: Maddox (middle relief; 15 shutout innings at MLB level; RHH .152 BAA)
RH: Barnes (pitching well lately, but open to swapping with Workman or Fister; RHH .208 BAA)

Off Roster:
C: Swihart (with Leon catching only Sale, no need to carry 3 catchers; plus, all 5 bench players have a specific role/value)
1B: Travis (not needed for ALDS, but could make ALCS if face lefty heavy pitching staff)
INF: Lin (hasn't played much in Sept; simply around in case another IF gets injured)
INF/OF: Holt (while he is a super utility guy, hasn't performed well this year; with 2 IF and 2 OF on bench, not as valuable; Nunez a better hitter, while Marrero better defensively)
SP: Fister (would join rotation if SP gets injured; could be used as long-reliever, but not as valuable in a 5 game series with multiple off days; RHH .203 BAA)
LH: Scott (primary loogy, but Houston has only 2 LHHs - Reddick, who gets platooned and McCann; would likely make ALCS roster)
LH: Abad (secondary loogy; would only possibly make ALCS if its a lefty heavy lineup)
RH: Workman (middle relief; while I prefer him over Barnes, he has only pitched a scoreless inning in 2 out of his last 10 appearances; go with the hot hand; RHH .213 BAA)
RH: Velazquez, Boyer, Hembree (available in case of injuries)

I'll make my last final prediction based on the last weekend series of the season. Sounds like Nunez will be healthy enough to be on the roster. Keeping my prediction mostly in tact from above, I'll swap Porcello with Fister and have him start game 4. Hopefully E-Rod's blow-up vs the Astros was due to pitch-tipping that can be corrected for his next start. For the final bullpen spot, I'll stick with Barnes over Workman.

If they decide to go with another lefty in the pen, I'd guess they go with Scott instead of Maddox. If they decide they need Holt as insurance for Pedroia/Nunez injuries, I'd guess they go with him instead of Young and have Nunez DH vs Keuchel instead of Young.

 

[MtPleasant Paul]

I would slot 12 pitchers because I would start Price in game 4 followed by a bullpen conglomerate. I don't want Porcello or Fister (who is so dependent on the umpire's whims in the first inning) starting. So... Price hopefully for three, Smith and Kelly for two each followed by Reed and, if necessary, Kimbrel. Barnes and Scott plus the five starters would be the remainder of the pitchers.

The 13 position players would be the 9 current starters (including Hanley at DH) and four reserves - Leon, Nunez, Davis and either Holt or Marrero.

This schema depends on how heavily the bullpen is used in the first three games, but in a fourth game, especially if the Sox are down 2-1 in the series, wouldn't we want Price over the other two?

 

[joe dokes]

I would slot 12 pitchers because I would start Price in game 4 followed by a bullpen conglomerate. I don't want Porcello or Fister (who is so dependent on the umpire's whims in the first inning) starting. So... Price hopefully for three, Smith and Kelly for two each followed by Reed and, if necessary, Kimbrel. Barnes and Scott plus the five starters would be the remainder of the pitchers.
The 13 position players would be the 9 current starters (including Hanley at DH) and four reserves - Leon, Nunez, Davis and either Holt or Marrero.
This schema depends on how heavily the bullpen is used in the first three games, but in a fourth game, especially if the Sox are down 2-1 in the series, wouldn't we want Price over the other two?

The manager has already said he's going with 11 pitchers for the Astros series.

 

[soxhop411]

Astros announced their roster. Just waiting on the SOX

 

[RedOctober3829]

SP(2)--Sale, Pomeranz, Fister
SP/RP(2)--Porcello, E-Rod
RP(6)--Kimbrel, Reed, Price, Kelly, Smith, Maddox
C(2)--Leon, Vazquez
IF(8)--Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers, Holt, Marrero, Ramirez, Nunez
OF(4)--Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Davis

 

[findguapo]

Roster has been set:

Pitchers:
Chris Sale
Drew Pomeranz
Rick Porcello
Eduardo Rodriguez
Doug Fister

Austin Maddox
Joe Kelly
David Price
Carson Smith
Addison Reed
Craig Kimbrel

Catchers:
Christian Vazquez
Sandy Leon

IF:
Mitch Moreland
Hanley Ramirez
Dustin Pedroia
Xander Bogaerts
Rafael Devers
Eduardo Nunez
Brock Holt
Deven Marrero

OF:
Andrew Benintendi
Jackie Bradley Jr
Mookie Betts
Rajai Davis

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

That's surprising - did not expect to see a 6 man bullpen. They must be really worried about Pedroia and Nunez - having both Holt and Marrero on the team

 

[BigPapiMPD34]

SP(2)--Sale, Pomeranz, Fister
SP/RP(2)--Porcello, E-Rod
RP(6)--Kimbrel, Reed, Price, Kelly, Smith, Maddox
C(2)--Leon, Vazquez
IF(8)--Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers, Holt, Marrero, Ramirez, Nunez
OF(4)--Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Davis

Thanks for posting. So the big takeaways that I got from this are:

- 5 SPs on the roster. I'd imagine for games 3/4, they pretty much tell whichever SP isn't starting to be prepared to come in early in the game just in case the SP blows up. Fister will likely start game 3 since Farrell said he will only make the roster as a SP. With Sale referencing the fact that he is ready to go on 3 days rest (I'd imagine only if Sox are down 2-1), it could make sense to go with Fister in game 3 (with the bullpen fully rested).

- Holt over Young. Looks like they really want insurance in case Nunez/Pedroia have injury issues. Holt also serves as the 5th OF. Against a RH RP, Holt could probably be used to pinch hit for Leon, but that's about it. The Astros only went with 1 LH RP, so Young's pinch hit opportunities would have been very limited. This could also be a sign that the Sox don't expect Nunez to be able to play the field effectively, but can still use his bat at DH. Expect Nunez to DH vs Keuchel with Ramirez covering Moreland at 1B.

- Maddox over Barnes/Workman. Looks like they simply want to go with the hottest hand and put some weight into Barnes' struggles on the road. Workman had been struggling in September, possibly running out of gas in his first full season back from TJS.

- Below is the list of guys that didn't make the cut, but will still be with the team (Travis, Elias, Velazquez were sent home):
C: Swihart
INF: Lin
OF: Young
LH: Scott
LH: Abad
RH: Barnes
RH: Workman
RH: Hembree
RH: Boyer

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Thanks for posting. So the big takeaways that I got from this are:

- 5 SPs on the roster. I'd imagine for games 3/4, they pretty much tell whichever SP isn't starting to be prepared to come in early in the game just in case the SP blows up. Fister will likely start game 3 since Farrell said he will only make the roster as a SP. With Sale referencing the fact that he is ready to go on 3 days rest (I'd imagine only if Sox are down 2-1), it could make sense to go with Fister in game 3 (with the bullpen fully rested).

- Holt over Young. Looks like they really want insurance in case Nunez/Pedroia have injury issues. Holt also serves as the 5th OF. Against a RH RP, Holt could probably be used to pinch hit for Leon, but that's about it. The Astros only went with 1 LH RP, so Young's pinch hit opportunities would have been very limited. This could also be a sign that the Sox don't expect Nunez to be able to play the field effectively, but can still use his bat at DH. Expect Nunez to DH vs Keuchel with Ramirez covering Moreland at 1B.

- Maddox over Barnes/Workman. Looks like they simply want to go with the hottest hand and put some weight into Barnes' struggles on the road. Workman had been struggling in September, possibly running out of gas in his first full season back from TJS.

- Below is the list of guys that didn't make the cut, but will still be with the team (Travis, Elias, Velazquez were sent home):
C: Swihart
INF: Lin
OF: Young
LH: Scott
LH: Abad
RH: Barnes
RH: Workman
RH: Hembree
RH: Boyer

The bolded is actually a pretty decent bullpen in it's own right. Says a lot about the Sox depth in that department. It also goes along way to explaining the extra-innings won/lost record.

 

[joe dokes]

That's surprising - did not expect to see a 6 man bullpen. They must be really worried about Pedroia and Nunez - having both Holt and Marrero on the team

He said from the get-go that he was likely to have both extra infielders. And while I'm surprised that there aren't 7 pure relievers, only Scott has been remotely dependable over the last month or so.

Its appropriately sentiment-free. No Barnes. No Workman.

 

[uncannymanny]

The bolded is actually a pretty decent bullpen in it's own right. Says a lot about the Sox depth in that department. It also goes along way to explaining the extra-innings won/lost record.

You think Scott is really that good?

 

[AB in DC]

Very surprised to see both Porcello and Fister on the roster, given their struggles

And amazed that Barnes went from being Farrell's #1 set-up guy in July to being left off the roster in October. I wonder if his injury is worse than they've said.

 

[Unin10D]

Only thing I can think of is Porcello is the mop up guy to save the bullpen in a blowout/Game 4 starter if the Sox are up and want Sale for Game 5.

I think EdRo will be coming out of the bullpen if needed

 

[joe dokes]

Very surprised to see both Porcello and Fister on the roster, given their struggles
And amazed that Barnes went from being Farrell's #1 set-up guy in July to being left off the roster in October. I wonder if his injury is worse than they've said.

Barnes has been so unreliable lately (for whatever reason) that it's not that surprising. As for the extra starter, maybe they just think none of the guys left behind has been so good that it's worth having them around for a 5 game/2 off day series, as opposed to a couple of extra starters for disasters or some sort of weather inspired scheduling nightmare.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Pretty nonconventional to have a team constructed where you don't feature a single turn-'em-around lefty reliever on the team.

Assuming Fister does indeed get a start, Price is the only lefty arm in the bullpen. It is what it is, but interesting nonetheless.

My guess is that the final decision came down to either Holt or Marerro over Scott. Pedey's going to play unless his leg falls off. I think we should interpret this roster as grounds for concern over Nunez though obviously not too concerned or he wouldn't be there in the first place.

I also think the other clear signal is that Porcello has told the team, as is not surprising, that he's ready for whatever they need out of the bullpen. Thing is, it wouldn't be totally surprising to me at all if Porcello ended up making a mark on this postseason in a good way in a role that John is forced to use him in.

Edit: Whoops, of course EdRo potentially also a bullpen arm as noted above by unin but again not a classic LOOGY.

 

[Return of the Dewey]

What a crazy season...who would've thought at the beginning of the season that each of Porcello and Price would be bullpen arms come the playoffs?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Pretty nonconventional to have a team constructed where you don't feature a single turn-'em-around lefty reliever on the team.

Assuming Fister does indeed get a start, Price is the only lefty arm in the bullpen. It is what it is, but interesting nonetheless.

My guess is that the final decision came down to either Holt or Marerro over Scott. Pedey's going to play unless his leg falls off. I think we should interpret this roster as grounds for concern over Nunez though obviously not too concerned or he wouldn't be there in the first place.

I also think the other clear signal is that Porcello has told the team, as is not surprising, that he's ready for whatever they need out of the bullpen. Thing is, it wouldn't be totally surprising to me at all if Porcello ended up making a mark on this postseason in a good way in a role that John is forced to use him in.

They didn't need a lefty specialist for this series. They don't have many LHB and the switch hitters on their team hit lefties better than righties.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

You think Scott is really that good?

I wasn't implying that they were good - just decent. We have become quite spoiled this year.

I think Scott is a decent LOOGY - better in that role than Abad. Neither is a really dependable hi-lev reliever.

From what I can deduce the rationale is :

14/11 - extra infielders required due to health uncertainties of Pedroia and Nunez

5 SP / 6 R - Porcello and Fister's general crappiness necessitates a long man in the bullpen. I'm also not sure who Farrell's choice to start will be. If game 4 comes around and the Sox are down 2-1 then I don't think either will start - it will be Sale and Pomeranz for 4 and 5. If they are up in the series then I think Fister gets the call. Porcello is there in case Fister blows up and you don't want to burn your limited bullpen options in a lost cause.

Plus opportunities for LOOGY's vs. Houston are limited + the LOOGY they have (Scott) isn't that great+ Price is going to get the first call anyways.

 

[BaseballJones]

That's surprising - did not expect to see a 6 man bullpen. They must be really worried about Pedroia and Nunez - having both Holt and Marrero on the team

Yeah that's my takeaway too. Pedroia and Nunez - man they obviously want to use them but have serious concerns. I'd love to have a lefty in the bullpen besides Price. But maybe EdRo will be used in a bullpen role too. Weird to have two of your top starters end up being your lefty relievers in the playoff series.

 

[joe dokes]

While the health of Pedroia and Nunez alone may have warranted the extra extra IF, their health combined with the opportunity to use Marrero as a defensive replacement for Devers (and Holt's availability as an emergency OF) might have added a little weight to that side of the scale.

It would have been very easy and relatively non-controversial (to the masses) to have both Barnes and Young on the roster. Going with Maddox takes a bit of nerve.

I was wrong about Smith. And gladly so.

 

[joe dokes]

dp

 

[AB in DC]

Barnes has been so unreliable lately (for whatever reason) that it's not that surprising.

Barnes had some very strange numbers last month -- in his last ten appearances (9.1 innings), he gave up 3 HR but 0 walks vs. 13 Ks. And only 5 GB vs 18 FB.

 

[phenweigh]

Austin Maddox is the only major surprise to me. They must think more highly of him than I imagined. Anyway, here's to hoping he never needs to be used.

 

[BaseballJones]

Nobody has mentioned Maddox as a bullpen option? It would not surprise me in the least, if he makes the post season roster over Workman or Barnes. I have noticed that the Red Sox have been auditioning Austin in more high leverage situations lately.

Good call on Maddox over Workman and Barnes!

 

[BigPapiMPD34]

Thanks for posting. So the big takeaways that I got from this are:

- 5 SPs on the roster. I'd imagine for games 3/4, they pretty much tell whichever SP isn't starting to be prepared to come in early in the game just in case the SP blows up. Fister will likely start game 3 since Farrell said he will only make the roster as a SP. With Sale referencing the fact that he is ready to go on 3 days rest (I'd imagine only if Sox are down 2-1), it could make sense to go with Fister in game 3 (with the bullpen fully rested).

- Holt over Young. Looks like they really want insurance in case Nunez/Pedroia have injury issues. Holt also serves as the 5th OF. Against a RH RP, Holt could probably be used to pinch hit for Leon, but that's about it. The Astros only went with 1 LH RP, so Young's pinch hit opportunities would have been very limited. This could also be a sign that the Sox don't expect Nunez to be able to play the field effectively, but can still use his bat at DH. Expect Nunez to DH vs Keuchel with Ramirez covering Moreland at 1B.

- Maddox over Barnes/Workman. Looks like they simply want to go with the hottest hand and put some weight into Barnes' struggles on the road. Workman had been struggling in September, possibly running out of gas in his first full season back from TJS.

- Below is the list of guys that didn't make the cut, but will still be with the team (Travis, Elias, Velazquez were sent home):
C: Swihart
INF: Lin
OF: Young
LH: Scott
LH: Abad
RH: Barnes
RH: Workman
RH: Hembree
RH: Boyer

Key notes per Tim Britton's twitter below. Italics are just my added thoughts.

- Fister will start game 3
- Porcello available out of bullpen in games 1 & 2; I presume that means he is in line to start game 4 (although I imagine this will get scrapped if Sox are down 2-1)
- Farrell likes Rodriguez against the bottom of Houston's lineup (Reddick L, Gonzalez - S, McCann - L). Thus, Rodriguez pretty much takes Scott's role, plus has the ability to pitch multiple innings in an emergency
- Hanley will start game 2 at 1B vs Keuchel
- Nunez is the DH vs Verlander due to his ability to hit high velocity pitches (Ramirez has strugged with high velocity due to shoulder injury); Nunez will also DH vs LHP Keuchel with Ramirez at 1B. My guess is Ramirez starts vs Peacock (avg FB - 92MPH), but sits vs Morton (avg FB - 95MPH)

 

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

So who's Nunez's roster replacement after today? Lin?

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

So who's Nunez's roster replacement after today? Lin?

I'd guess it's Young

 

[Unin10D]

I did not realize the replacement had to be a position player. So I learned something today

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Lin went back to Taiwan a week ago to be with his wife who was about to give birth. I haven't seen that he's back in the states, but it could be him but I'd expect it would be Young.

But not Brentz. Definitely not Brentz.

 

[grimshaw]

Young makes the most sense given they are facing Keuchel.