I'm thinking we will see a slightly worse version of 2016 Papelbon.
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It actually has nothing to do with the staff in place. Bannister I don't think can help him regain velocity. He's getting hit in the NL East. The AL East would be much harder. Also, depends on if he accepts his role as a 6th or maybe 7th inning guy. I'll cheer him if he returns but I just don't know how much sense it makes given his performance the last year or so.
Just having fun, he's definitely in decline. Even last season though he was brought in to replace Storen he was far from the Pap of old.
Not only do I think the AL v NL argument has lost a lot of steam (and especially AL East v NL East), it's especially worthless when talking about a closer. Half the argument is facing a pitcher 2-3 times through the lineup, which doesn't apply to a closer.
I'd absolutely try to sign Papelbon unless someone else were to offer him silly money. Which I don't think will happen.
The Sox need help. I don't know if he can provide it. But I think it's worth a little risk to find out.
The Sox need help. I don't know if he can provide it. But I think it's worth a little risk to find out.
Why would anyone offer him anything but the minimum? The Nats are paying the tab.
If they don't, they risk losing him in one of those free agent trades that are all the rage
Ever seen two black holes collide? It's not a matter of trading, it's a matter of survival.
Scott Lauber ESPN Staff Writer
Asked Dave Dombrowski if the Red Sox would be interested in a reunion with newly released reliever Jonathan Papelbon. "It just happened, but I would say it's worth looking into," Dombrowski said.
Asked Dave Dombrowski if the Red Sox would be interested in a reunion with newly released reliever Jonathan Papelbon. "It just happened, but I would say it's worth looking into," Dombrowski said.
So, Papelbon requests his release because he's not closing. Why in the hell would we even think about bringing him in here? Unless you want him to close. Then knock yourself out. Just make sure you leave him there.
I read that he requested the release only after being informed that he was going to be DFA anyway. This release isn't the result of a petulant tantrum due to losing his job, it's him wanting more control over where he went next (since DFA would have meant waivers and/or a trade).
I don't think concerns over his attitude toward not closing should be a reason to not at least kick the tires. I think the fact that he's had a worse year than Tazawa, Barnes, Ross, and Kimbrel (for starters) is what should give the team pause. Would he even be an upgrade over what they have?
If there ever was a poster boy for the "anointed closer" it's him. Sure, "kick the tires". DD should look at every option available, but I can't picture him being "happy" in another role, especially with this team unless things have changed. Maybe they have, but I have my doubts.
It seems like even if we could find such a reliever he would come here and regress. Maybe we sign Papelbon and it's a reverse lock.
I wouldn't think twice about bringing Paps back with the state of the bullpen at the moment. Kimbrel has a sore knee and everyone else has been ineffective to some degree. He cost nothing but the minimum and if he cant deliver he can be released w/o any pain. Maybe he just needs a change of scenery. Yankees brought back Warren who was having a miserable season and he has been lights out. RP'er stats are just such SSS they just are not predictive. Sure he is in decline and he is not the guy he once was, but we keep bringing in these guys who were good for other teams and see them go the other way, maybe bringing in someone who used to be good and is having a tough time works out the other way. Its seems its really a coin flip with BP arms. Flip the coin often enough and sooner or later it comes up heads.
And f we did he'd come here and be infected by the Boston pitching suck like Kimbrell and Price. Hopefully they find the same cure Porcello did.
Papelbon is toast. He's throwing like Koji, 89-91 and a splitter, but without Koji's command or deception. Probably no better than Casey Janssen at Pawtuvket if you want veteran presence for September. Need to look elsewhere for help.
Disagree. He was pitching just fine until a few weeks ago. On a veteran flier he's certainly worth a go round if he's ok with not being the closer.
On the prorated veteran minimum who gives a shit? Hembree can come up in a couple weeks and if Pap says boo, you toss him to the curb. For a guy that was pitching quite well for a good portion of the season and gets what it's like in Boston, it's worth a shot.
WaPost article this morning bears this out on circumstances of his departure. Nothing but flowers for him from Rizzo, through Baker through his teammates. In granting his request for a release, the Nats guaranteed his salary for the rest of the season -- which isn't a ton of money, but is further evidence of a good terms parting.
He struggled with location throughout the season. He dearly needs location because he cannot blow people away anymore. Though, oddly enough, in his last two mop up roles, his velocity increased per Rizzo.
In a vacuum, sure he's worth a flier, but:
a) The only logical guy who he would displace is Elias, but they have 13 pitchers up right now, which can't be sustainable giving how tired the youngsters look. I would love to give Tazawa a two week vacation, but they haven't phantom dl'd someone for a while. How do you roster him otherwise?
b) I really want no part of that guy anyhow, but that's just personal dislike.
I'm hoping DD's interest was as in terms of a minor league deal and the first guy to come up with an injury or at expansion. Paps would never go for that obviously. That's not happening, but I'm hoping that's what he meant by exploring the possibility.
a) The only logical guy who he would displace is Elias, but they have 13 pitchers up right now, which can't be sustainable giving how tired the youngsters look. I would love to give Tazawa a two week vacation, but they haven't phantom dl'd someone for a while. How do you roster him otherwise?
b) I really want no part of that guy anyhow, but that's just personal dislike.
I'm hoping DD's interest was as in terms of a minor league deal and the first guy to come up with an injury or at expansion. Paps would never go for that obviously. That's not happening, but I'm hoping that's what he meant by exploring the possibility.
They would have owed him the money either way. They granted him his release instead of designating him for assignment.
Fair enough but I don't think he would have gotten claimed and they probably didn't either or they would have just DFA'd him, and I'm sure the explored all trade opportunities last month.
Farrell took it a step further during the pre-game this afternoon. When asked about Pap he said that the group HAS discussed him and ways he could help the team. Spoke in a tone to suggest that it was something that was about to happen.
I've had a growing feeling in my gut this weekend that he's coming back. With 3 active roster spots open, I would not be surprised to see him signed tomorrow morning.
EDIT: looks like there's an open 40 man spot too, so they wouldn't have to lose anyone
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If you look at his game logs, he's had 3-4 really bad outings that have ruined his numbers. He's also had 27 scoreless appearances. He's definitely lost the electric stuff, but as a basically free arm it would seem silly not to add him, even if only to keep Tazawa as fresh as possible for the stretch run.
He's an ass hole, but he's our ass hole. (And mine, more specifically.) And relievers are needed. Tell Abad to pick a new number.
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I can't be the only one who has had some idle speculation about what Kopech might do in the bigs.
He doesn't have to be added to the 40 man for three more years. Unless they're planning to convert him to a reliever you'd think they would want him to pitch at least a season and a half more after this season what with all the time he has lost.
If they add him now (or more likely, 9/1) they'd have to burn an option in 17 and 18 meaning he'd have to stick in 20 or be exposed.
I have a hard time thinking the probability of him being good enough to make the difference is worth it but we do need bullpen help and there's no guarantee the Sox are competitive in 19 or 20.
I've have had some idle speculation as well, so there are two of us. The clock is a reason I wouldn't see him added. But... 105MPH arms only have so many bullets in them,
No, he hasn't even thrown a pitch in AA yet. He is basically a FB pitcher with sketchy command. He isn't even likely to make the Sox next year as he needs to learn to command his FB better and refine at least one secondary pitch. Bringing him up now is almost certainly going to derail his development.
As for Paps, the one concern is that he was terrible right before being released. Has he run out of bullets or is it SSS blip? Sox don't have the luxury to figure out if he is simply cooked which may well be the case.
I'd be really shocked too, though I don't think he would necessarily be a disaster as a 6th or 7th inning 1.5 pitch pitcher out of the pen. If he's pushing 100mph in his starts, I can't even imagine what that would be in the pen. It's not exactly fun hitting those in 45 degree post season weather.
Kind of reminds of the K-Rod thing when the Angels won it all in 2002 and he came in for 5 innings at the end of September at age 20 and then the post season. He didn't spend a minute in the minors.
As for Paps - I don't think I can handle more than one hyper deliberate closer type with a stupid death stare.
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If maturity is the (or even a) big concern about a pitcher, having him skip two levels to pitch in a high-pressure pennant race at age 20 seems like a terrible idea.
His (Papelbon's) poor overall numbers are built from just a handful of bad appearances and while his velocity is down from his peak it is only marginally lower than 2015, especially when you consider that like most pitchers his velocity peaks later in the season and so he hasn't had time to push the average up yet this year. His last few appearances have been all over the map in that regard, but his best velo outing of the season was in that same stretch.
I'd give it a shot. Paps loves to look the hero and returning to Fenway as we push for the playoffs gives him a chance for that. He'll come fired up and focused. He might blow his arm apart in the attempt but we won't have any long term obligations on that front so big deal?
With Wright hitting the DL and Buchholz getting another start there's room in the 'pen. The alternative is bringing Hembree back up, which the club has been reticent to do of late for some reason. Might as well use this as an opportunity to give Paps another shot and see if they might get lucky.
I'd give it a shot. Paps loves to look the hero and returning to Fenway as we push for the playoffs gives him a chance for that. He'll come fired up and focused. He might blow his arm apart in the attempt but we won't have any long term obligations on that front so big deal?
With Wright hitting the DL and Buchholz getting another start there's room in the 'pen. The alternative is bringing Hembree back up, which the club has been reticent to do of late for some reason. Might as well use this as an opportunity to give Paps another shot and see if they might get lucky.
My meaningless vote is 'nay' on bringing him back.
Papelbon just isn't a good enough pitcher anymore, to add his personal drama to what is, to all appearances, a really good clubhouse atmosphere among both pitchers and hitters.
It was different all those years ago, when he was absolutely nails.
Papelbon just isn't a good enough pitcher anymore, to add his personal drama to what is, to all appearances, a really good clubhouse atmosphere among both pitchers and hitters.
It was different all those years ago, when he was absolutely nails.
As of July 23rd, Paps looked like an upgrade on the worst pitcher in our pen. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=papeljo01&t=p&year=2016
I can see it ending badly over his personality, or him being too gassed/injured to compete. I can also see someone reading him the riot act, and telling him this is a big chance to lift the Sox to the post season, be a (non closer) hero, etc.
I'm on the fence. Mostly because I'm not sure I trust the coaching staff to make a good assessment of whether or not he's got anything left.
The question that has to be answered is if pre July 23rd Paps is a materially different pitcher than post July 23rd or did he just run into a string of bad luck? We aren't getting pre July 23rd Paps so if he is worn down/injured/old he isn't an upgrade over anyone. If it was just bad luck then perhaps he can help.
This isn't necessarily a July 23rd thing, but Papelbon has had an abnormal amount of game-to-game variance in his fastball velocity this year. Not sure what that signifies.
Papelbon of last season (3.14 SIERA, 17% K%-BB%) would easily be an upgrade for this team's bullpen. Not sure 2016 Papelbon and his 4.23/11% mark are. 2016 swing-and-miss rate of only 8% on his fastball, which is below his career 12% mark, coupled with a ~0.5mph mean velo decrease. Stuff isn't totally gone (still getting good average whiff numbers on the splitter and slider), I just don't know how consistently it would show up on a night-to-night basis at this point.
What was the saying about Daubach, something like he becomes a better player when he dons the Sox uniform? Maybe something similar will happen with Pepelbon. Bring him in to be the "early" relief ace. Tell him not to pace himself but come in from the pen and snuff out rallies in innings 1-6. Of course, that means Farrell has to be more willing to yank a starter.
With the injuries/fatigue and other dreck in the bullpen, I don't see the downside to a Paps reunion. If he sucks, you waive goodbye having risked basically nothing and it would be the same result as a Heath Hembree or Abad.
But there's a chance he finds a bit more consistency/command and we get a 2015 Paps, or even something between 2015 and 2016. That's a help to this bullpen.
But there's a chance he finds a bit more consistency/command and we get a 2015 Paps, or even something between 2015 and 2016. That's a help to this bullpen.
Rob Bradford @bradfo 21m21 minutes ago
Henry Owens allows one run over seven innings tonight. In his last four starts, he has a 1.57 ERA with 29 Ks. Warrants watching.
I wouldn't be shocked to see if he gets another shot before the end of the season
Henry Owens allows one run over seven innings tonight. In his last four starts, he has a 1.57 ERA with 29 Ks. Warrants watching.
I wouldn't be shocked to see if he gets another shot before the end of the season
The Red Sox bullpen needs Jonathan Papelbon's competitive fire. If he'll take a 7th-8th-inning role, it's a no brainer. Pedey, Papi and Sox management can keep the worst aspects of Papelbon in check. Hate to see him go to the Cubbies. Lester is giving him the thumbs up.
I would roll the dice on him. As far as the clubhouse, he knows Pedey, Papi, and Clay well, and there wasn't a huge problem when he was here before. All the drama seemed to start when he left.
That being said, unfortunately I think he's going to Chicago. It feels like the Cub's year (I know MLB wants it to be), and everybody wants to get on board.
That being said, unfortunately I think he's going to Chicago. It feels like the Cub's year (I know MLB wants it to be), and everybody wants to get on board.
The last time Papelbon played for the Sox there were only 3 players on the team who were born outside the U.S... just sayin'...
though without Aceves around, Paps could become Mariano Rivera for all we know.
though without Aceves around, Paps could become Mariano Rivera for all we know.
I wonder if Paps would require a contract for 2017 as well.
He did have one of his best starts of the season, but he struggled to get through 5 in two of those starts, and two of them have had 4 walks.
Seems like he's still a nibbler to me.
Great analysis Bradfo-
He did have one of his best starts of the season, but he struggled to get through 5 in two of those starts, and two of them have had 4 walks.
Seems like he's still a nibbler to me.