Pitching Depth

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
Watching Elias "pitch" at Jet Blue right now, I am moved to wonder when the Sox will need a fifth starter. I know that Wright and Erod are progressing, but I'm not sure when they'll be needed. Please forgive me if this is discussed further up in the thread---it's too long to read for me right now. TIA.
Elias is no longer considered a starter, having dropped down to a three-quarter delivery.

Price looked great today, and Sale and Porcello are themselves. I think if Pom has any setbacks after his live BP session Sunday, we may see a minor depth move for someone like Trevor Cahill.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
Watching Elias "pitch" at Jet Blue right now, I am moved to wonder when the Sox will need a fifth starter. I know that Wright and Erod are progressing, but I'm not sure when they'll be needed. Please forgive me if this is discussed further up in the thread---it's too long to read for me right now. TIA.
To answer your question, unfortunate though the answer may be, the Sox will need a 5th starter on the 5th game of the season (4/2 at Miami) But then not again until twice through the rotation (4/14 vs Baltimore and again 4/19 at LA Angels). Then we’re into May, I think.
[edit: nope, one more time again on 4/28 vs Tampa Bay]

[2nd edit: assuming no further injuries, and that Pomeranz is okay to start the season, then by the end of April the Sox can give Sale 7 starts, Price-Porcello-Pomeranz 6 apiece, and the 5th starter only 4. It’s not really too bad, and with 14 games in Boston, there may be a snow- or rain-out or two, as well, to really muck things up.]
 
Last edited:

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
Elias won’t make the club after his performance today. My money is on Poyner.
This would require bumping someone from the 40-man.

Elias isn't super valuable and his final line today was ugly, but that's a scoreless inning if Devers makes that play on that chopper from Diaz. Teoscar Hernandez did crush that double, but it's not like Elias would be pitching against power-hitting RHB with the bases loaded in the regular season.

I haven't watched him personally, but Poyner's numbers do look good. He's only K'd 4 in 7 innings, though, which SSS is still far apace from his 12/13 K/9 last year in the minors. Someone on this board who's seen him throw - anyone in MLB you can compare him to?
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
Looking at Poyner's paper trail, so to speak, it looks like he had some kind of major adjustment or epiphany last year. He was mediocre, to put it kindly, as a 23-year-old in A+ in 2016. Then in his second year at Salem he almost doubled his K rate, while reducing his HR rate and leaving his BB rate intact. Partway through the year they promoted him to AA, and far from hiccuping at what is often called the biggest leap in the minors, he got better.

I'd be really curious to hear from someone who's seen him too. His SoxProspects profile makes him sound like your quintessential crafty lefty control pitcher--fastball that tops out in the low 90s, plus three secondaries. He also has a reverse split. A comp for that--modest velocity, eclectic mix of pitches, high K/BB, excels at getting RHH out--would be somebody like Brett Cecil. Not a very exciting comp, but OTOH, Cecil would be a useful addition to the Sox' bullpen, especially at the major league minimum.
 

Hank Scorpio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 1, 2013
6,923
Salem, NH
To answer your question, unfortunate though the answer may be, the Sox will need a 5th starter on the 5th game of the season (4/2 at Miami) But then not again until twice through the rotation (4/14 vs Baltimore and again 4/19 at LA Angels). Then we’re into May, I think.
[edit: nope, one more time again on 4/28 vs Tampa Bay]

[2nd edit: assuming no further injuries, and that Pomeranz is okay to start the season, then by the end of April the Sox can give Sale 7 starts, Price-Porcello-Pomeranz 6 apiece, and the 5th starter only 4. It’s not really too bad, and with 14 games in Boston, there may be a snow- or rain-out or two, as well, to really muck things up.]
Some caution may be wise here, after how last season played out down the stretch...
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
Looking at Poyner's paper trail, so to speak, it looks like he had some kind of major adjustment or epiphany last year. He was mediocre, to put it kindly, as a 23-year-old in A+ in 2016. Then in his second year at Salem he almost doubled his K rate, while reducing his HR rate and leaving his BB rate intact. Partway through the year they promoted him to AA, and far from hiccuping at what is often called the biggest leap in the minors, he got better.

I'd be really curious to hear from someone who's seen him too. His SoxProspects profile makes him sound like your quintessential crafty lefty control pitcher--fastball that tops out in the low 90s, plus three secondaries. He also has a reverse split. A comp for that--modest velocity, eclectic mix of pitches, high K/BB, excels at getting RHH out--would be somebody like Brett Cecil. Not a very exciting comp, but OTOH, Cecil would be a useful addition to the Sox' bullpen, especially at the major league minimum.
Not a lot of lefties that can get by on a fastball that sits 90-91 these days. A Cecil comp would be nice, but even his velo might be overselling Poyner. Maybe he's another Oki.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
Any interest in swooping in and signing either Alex Cobb to bolster the rotation or Greg Holland to fortify the pen?
Obviously not, or they would be signed already by DDski.

Look, the financial constraints this season and next are because of Cherington’s decisions in 2014-15. If the Red Sox have serious financial constraints at a moment in time when bargains are available, it’s because that FO spent like a drunken sailor for question marks. It’s unfortunate but unsurprising.

Some flexibility will be maintained for midseason pickups as long as the team is contending, but this is the team the Sox will be rolling out the season with.

It’s a DDski team just like in his Tigers run — could be almost unbeatable if things break right, but brittle against stresses.
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,423
Not here
Any interest in swooping in and signing either Alex Cobb to bolster the rotation or Greg Holland to fortify the pen?
I suspect that if either were willing to sign for what the Sox can afford to pay, a deal would already have been done. If there's money to be saved somewhere by trading someone, then maybe, but it's a pretty long shot even if you assume Cobb/Holland would accept one year make good deals.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
I suspect that if either were willing to sign for what the Sox can afford to pay, a deal would already have been done. If there's money to be saved somewhere by trading someone, then maybe, but it's a pretty long shot even if you assume Cobb/Holland would accept one year make good deals.
The question about Cobb is more difficult, but the issue with Holland is this: would you want to sign Holland and DFA (or trade for nothing) both Leon and Holt to save the cash needed to pick him up and keep something in the kitty for midseason?

Or is Holland volatile enough that the incremental benefit and/or injury insurance that Leon and Holt provide is already more valuable than Holland’s delta over the next reliever in the bullpen?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,680
Maine
As has been pointed out before, Cobb and Holland are qualifying offer recipients. So in addition to any luxury tax penalties their salaries might incur, they also come with the loss of the team's second draft pick and international bonus pool money.

Dombrowski isn't signing either of them.
 

scotian1

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
16,324
Kingston, Nova Scotia
Seriously, this pitching staff is a bit thin. Today ERod was scratched. They need another starter in my opinion and if it costs a draft pick so be it. Draft picks of players that may or may not make it to the majors in three or four years are nice but a proven major leaguer is even better.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,680
Maine
Seriously, this pitching staff is a bit thin. Today ERod was scratched. They need another starter in my opinion and if it costs a draft pick so be it. Draft picks of players that may or may not make it to the majors in three or four years are nice but a proven major leaguer is even better.
Scratched from what? Rodriguez wasn't scheduled to pitch today. He threw a 3 inning simulated game on Thursday pain and set-back free (Herald article). He's schedule to throw another on Tuesday and if that goes well, he may start a game in the final week of spring training. He's still going to start the year on the DL as he continues to ramp up his pitch count, but it doesn't appear he'll be out for long. Probably joins the rotation in mid/late April.

The rotation for the first couple weeks is probably going to be Sale, Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, and either Johnson or Velezquez. Steven Wright is reportedly saying he expects to break camp with the big club, though based on his usage so far, he's likely in the same boat as Rodriguez...mid/late April.

It's not losing the draft pick itself that will hurt, it's the signing bonus pool money that goes with it that hurts (second round pick probably slotted at $900K-$1M). The farm is barren, they need to reload. Even if they miss out on one player due to a lost pick, it's their ability to sign all of their picks in the first 10 rounds with their allotted bonus money (probably a total of $5.5-6M if they keep all their picks) that is of utmost importance to rebuild the farm. They're not going to harm their chances their just to slightly upgrade the rotation for a couple weeks.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
Seriously, this pitching staff is a bit thin. Today ERod was scratched. They need another starter in my opinion and if it costs a draft pick so be it. Draft picks of players that may or may not make it to the majors in three or four years are nice but a proven major leaguer is even better.
Dropping 10 spots in the first round, losing the second round pick, and losing all the draft pool money from both those changes...plus losing IFA money? Come on, that’s a really steep price to pay for a guy who may need to make 6 starts all year.

DDski has indeed put together a thin pitching staff. But whether on the bump or at the plate, this team will go as far as the health of its stars will take it, and not much farther. That’s how DDski rolls.

Now, we’re likely to see more Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez starts this season that is generally desired, but all three of Pomeranz, Rodriguez, and Wright should be ready by early May at the latest.
 

Jerry’s Curl

New Member
Feb 6, 2018
2,518
Florida
Based on the positive health reports of Pom, Erod, and Wright I’m much more comfortable heading into the season now than I was two weeks ago. Brian Johnson might have to make one start before everyone comes back.
 

Sampo Gida

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 7, 2010
5,044
Based on the positive health reports of Pom, Erod, and Wright I’m much more comfortable heading into the season now than I was two weeks ago. Brian Johnson might have to make one start before everyone comes back.
Their lack of quality depth has me concerned they may be pushing these guys a bit, which could backfire if they are. But certainly if its real then thats good news.

If they are in negotiations for another starter the rosy optimism might simply be to improve leverage.
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,423
Not here
Their lack of quality depth has me concerned they may be pushing these guys a bit, which could backfire if they are. But certainly if its real then thats good news.

If they are in negotiations for another starter the rosy optimism might simply be to improve leverage.
When you're using guys like Johnson and Velazquez because you have three starting pitchers out, you don't have a lack of quality depth, you have too many pitchers out at once. There isn't a staff in the world that goes eight deep with guys you'd really like to see out there. Most staffs don't go five deep.

This team has two guys who should be getting Cy Young votes in Sale and Price, three guys whose upside is a quality #2 kind of season in Porcello, Pomeranz, and Rodriguez, and three guys who are going to be terrible in less than half their games in Wright, Johnson, and Velazquez. That's decent depth.
 

Adrian's Dome

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2010
4,424
The best team in the AL last year, and still doesn't go 8 deep like he said. So...good job proving his point?

Most teams would kill to have two aces, a solid 2, and a bunch of high-upside filler like the Red Sox. If we happen to lose two or three starters, then yeah, the depth will be strained. That's a true statement, but the fact there isn't a team in MLB that would be perfectly fine in that event also is.

Success is often tied to luck with pitcher health. Pitchers often get hurt. Shit happens.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,745
I don't get how that's not eight deep, McHugh has started 102 games the last 4 seasons with a 3.70 ERA, and Whitley is one of the top few SP prospects in baseball who is supposedly ready or close (albeit suspended for 50 games now, but we're talking under control, not currently available), but ok.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,680
Maine
I don't get how that's not eight deep, McHugh has started 102 games the last 4 seasons with a 3.70 ERA, and Whitley is one of the top few SP prospects in baseball who is supposedly ready or close (albeit suspended for 50 games now, but we're talking under control, not currently available), but ok.
And if McCullers and Morton were working their way back from surgery and not on target to be ready to go on Opening Day, and if Keuchel were coming off a season largely lost to an arm injury, and if Cole had sported an ERA over 4 last year (oh wait, he did), there might be some Houston fans bemoaning their "lack of quality depth" and yelling and screaming for them to sign Cobb too. Wouldn't make them right.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,745
That’s a lot of ifs, but not sure why you guys are arguing with me. Rasputin said “there isn’t a staff in the world that goes eight deep” and the fact that there’s probably only 1 (the Dodgers maybe had 8 last year but are thinner now, the Indians have a lot of guys but I don’t think 8, the Yankees guys past #5 are very unproven and mostly not quite ready) is almost as strong of a point, I just disliked the definitive wording of it, hence the post.

Actually the Rays have at least 7 (the 4 they’re using, Andriese, Honeywell and DeLeon), but the last two are out for the season already. It’s a tough balance because you almost certainly need 8-9 guys each season but if everyone is healthy, it’s hard to keep them all stretched out unless the guys you’re not currently using still have options, in which case they generally are somewhat unproven.
 
Last edited:

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,101
Their lack of quality depth has me concerned they may be pushing these guys a bit, which could backfire if they are. But certainly if its real then thats good news.

If they are in negotiations for another starter the rosy optimism might simply be to improve leverage.
The recovery timeframes for EdRod and Wright are consistent with the conservative expectations that were set at the start of spring training. So I doubt very much it's a case of their being pushed.

Pomeranz is a bit of an unknown, but he has been pain free, so there's no reason not to have him start pitching BP.

Once they come back, they are 7 deep. Johnson has looked like he could be serviceable as a spot starter. Velazquez is not major league quality, but hopefully they are done with him once the first week of the season comes to a close.

Can't really blame Dombrowski for not wanting to blow the budget (and gut their next draft) on a starting pitcher given what we know today regarding the health and effectiveness of the other 7.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,680
Maine
That’s a lot of ifs, but not sure why you guys are arguing with me. Rasputin said “there isn’t a staff in the world that goes eight deep” and the fact that there’s probably only 1 (the Dodgers maybe had 8 last year but are thinner now, the Indians have a lot of guys but I don’t think 8, the Yankees guys past #5 are very unproven and mostly not quite ready) is almost as strong of a point, I just disliked the definitive wording of it, hence the post.

Actually the Rays have at least 7 (the 4 they’re using, Andriese, Honeywell and DeLeon), but the last two are out for the season already. It’s a tough balance because you almost certainly need 8-9 guys each season but if everyone is healthy, it’s hard to keep them all stretched out unless the guys you’re not currently using still have options, in which case they generally are somewhat unproven.
I was mostly trying to point out that, when healthy, the Red Sox should be at least seven deep as well. Comparing their depth to Houston (or anyone else) should be on equal terms, IMO. Houston is currently healthy and thus deep. The Red Sox have some health issues so appear, for the moment, to be thin.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,348
I personally would like to see what we have in Valasquez over picking up another “proven” starter especially considering the cost.
That said... how is the greatest painter of all time faring in Spring Training thus far?
 

pinkunicornsox

New Member
Oct 8, 2017
98
I second that about Valasquez. More then likely there is nothing there and a few years from now we won't even remember him, but in 24 innings last year he didn't do horribly. I think it behooves the Sox to find out if he is a viable starter or not.
 

Pozo the Clown

New Member
Sep 13, 2006
745
Per the article (linked below) on Pomeranz:

"...the southpaw breezed through a 33-pitch simulated two-inning session at JetBlue Park this morning.

"I felt good -- I don’t know velocity-wise what it was, but it was carrying through and it was getting on them quick -- that’s what I look for, the four-seam, the way it’s coming out of my hand -- it was coming out good," said Pomeranz. "That’s the first day I’ve really gotten after it. I threw a bullpen the other day where I was just kind of moving. Today I actually started firing them in there. I felt great. I felt normal."

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2018/03/drew_pomeranz_passes_another_milestone_on_road_to_recovery
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,510
Rogers Park
I second that about Valasquez. More then likely there is nothing there and a few years from now we won't even remember him, but in 24 innings last year he didn't do horribly. I think it behooves the Sox to find out if he is a viable starter or not.
He's gotten rocked, per b-r: 10 1/3 IP, 17 hits (!!!), 4 K and 2 BB. 19 baserunners in 10 innings isn't exactly promising.

I've been worried about workload with this guy. Between 2016 and 2017, he pitched an entire Mexican season, regular (131 IP) and winter (85 IP), and then an American season (24 IP in MLB and 102 in AAA). That's a ton of innings. But he only threw 10 IP for Navojoa this winter, and then he's been bad in Grapefruit action.
 

Rich Garces Belly

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2009
340
4 years/$60 million for Cobb in Baltimore. Lackey just became the top option out there.

Red Sox have 4 solid starters, get two of them have elbow questions.

Then a bunch of question marks or injury questions. We can get Lackey (plus a mid season bullpen piece) and still stay under the Luxury Tax by trading/releasing Holt.

After Lackey the next best option would be Jimenez, which would be scary for a team with WS dreams.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,680
Maine
We can get Lackey (plus a mid season bullpen piece) and still stay under the Luxury Tax by trading/releasing Holt.
Lackey isn't happening. It just isn't.

They have roughly $7M to play with right now. ~$9M if they drop Holt before the season starts. I very much doubt Lackey's desperate enough to pitch, at age 39, that he'll take a minimum salary deal. If he was, someone else probably would have snapped him up by now. And even if the Sox were willing to pay a couple million to him, I can't imagine he'd sign on to a situation where, if everyone's healthy, he wouldn't have a job anyway.

This team is what it is right now.
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 7, 2015
318
There was talk upthread on Lackey, but there's a lot of talk about his strong second half.

Lackey did not have a strong second half. He had a strong July, and a strong Sept/Oct.

Outside of those, it's all OPS over 800, ERA over 5, etc. etc. A few cat's may make someone think there are some flukes (in 5 June starts, he held opponents to their second lowest BAA in a given month) but they're pretty much mitigated by others (gave up 11HR in 6 games that same June).

So besides the $, besides the role, besides his age, besides the hunch that he's a meany, besides the fact that he will prematurely wrinkle around his mouth... he is was, at best, streaky last year. I'd rather throw any MiL'er up there than give Lackey a single start. They have as much of a chance to catch lightning in a bottle as he does.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
Well, there goes the Cobb option — 4 years/$56-60MM.

Guess he didn’t need the pillow contract after all.
 

richgedman'sghost

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
May 13, 2006
1,870
ct
Quick question: In the case of a suspension do we have to operate a man short? In other words, once Wright comes off the DL and begins to serve his suspension are the Red Sox forced to have a 24 man roster or can they replace Wright on the roster?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,680
Maine
Quick question: In the case of a suspension do we have to operate a man short? In other words, once Wright comes off the DL and begins to serve his suspension are the Red Sox forced to have a 24 man roster or can they replace Wright on the roster?
He'll be on the restricted list and the Red Sox will be allowed to field a 25-man roster without him. This is different than a run of the mill in-season suspension for charging a mound or whatever.
 

Jinhocho

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2001
10,283
Durham, NC
Looks like Brian Johnson may take a few turns in the rotation. Which may not be a bad thing - he looked pretty darn good today.
I have been looking forward to seeing Johnson get a real chance, here or elsewhere. I think he might pleasantly surprise a lot of folks.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,680
Maine

Pomeranz and Rodriguez starting the year on the DL. Wright on the restricted list. Looks like Velazquez will start the fourth game unless they add someone to the 40-man.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569

Pomeranz and Rodriguez starting the year on the DL. Wright on the restricted list. Looks like Velazquez will start the fourth game unless they add someone to the 40-man.
Which is fine. The Sox don’t need to panic against the Rays or the Marlins, and this allows Cora to throw Sale-Price-Porcello against the Yankees.

[edit:] And Wright’s 15-day suspension will be over before the Patriots Day series forces the Sox to use a 5th starter again. So it’s likely to be only one start for Velazquez to show he can still paint.
 
Last edited:

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,680
Maine
Which is fine. The Sox don’t need to panic against the Rays or the Marlins, and this allows Cora to throw Sale-Price-Porcello against the Yankees.
Yes. I imagine it will be Sale-Price-Porcello-Velazquez against the Rays, Johnson and Sale in Miami.

Then for the homestand, they could go Price, Porcello, Johnson against the Rays and then Sale, Price, Porcello against the Yankees. After that, maybe Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Sale, and Price against the Orioles?

Definitely should be able to get away with using Velazquez just the once and Johnson twice. Though with the way he's pitched so far this spring, they probably don't need to rush both Pomeranz and Rodriguez off the DL to take Johnson's place.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
Exactly. Wright’s 15-day suspension would still allow him to pitch any game of the Baltimore series 4/13-16.

And both Rodriguez or Pomeranz will be eligible to come off the DL before the home game against the Rays on 4/8. But if neither of them can take the hill until the Patriots Day series, giving Johnson a second start isn’t, by far, the worst thing in the world.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,680
Maine
One thing...Wright is serving a 15-game suspension so the earliest he could be back is Patriots Day (4/16), assuming no rainouts that aren't made up immediately.
 

effectivelywild

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
466
That’s a lot of ifs, but not sure why you guys are arguing with me. Rasputin said “there isn’t a staff in the world that goes eight deep” and the fact that there’s probably only 1 (the Dodgers maybe had 8 last year but are thinner now, the Indians have a lot of guys but I don’t think 8, the Yankees guys past #5 are very unproven and mostly not quite ready) is almost as strong of a point, I just disliked the definitive wording of it, hence the post.

Actually the Rays have at least 7 (the 4 they’re using, Andriese, Honeywell and DeLeon), but the last two are out for the season already. It’s a tough balance because you almost certainly need 8-9 guys each season but if everyone is healthy, it’s hard to keep them all stretched out unless the guys you’re not currently using still have options, in which case they generally are somewhat unproven.
Fangraphs actually looked at this (regarding a post about the Cardinals and their abundance of starters) and they compiled a list of the number of starters each team has that could be considered "quality" (projected to provide at least 2.0 WAR/180 innings) and it looks like this:



So it looks like the Dodgers have the most at 8, but that aside from the Cardinals and Diamondbacks (who knew?) everyone has 5 or less. Of course, this projections are all based on 180 innings pitched, so it doesn't account for guys that will pitch less due to injuries. Regardless, it just reinforces how rare it is to have multiple quality starters in an organization and how difficult it is to go more than 5 deep.
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
3,620

Did anyone see it? people on reddit say it looked like he twisted his knee?


edit:



premature panic, sorry guys! hopefully everything is ok