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Pitching Depth

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by grimshaw, Feb 15, 2018.

  1. Danny_Darwin

    Danny_Darwin Member SoSH Member

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    The Twins did indeed release him.

    EDIT: What's the general feeling about Beeks at the moment? His spring has been... not great.
     
  2. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Sanchez got his unconditional release to make room for Lynn today because the Twins saw how bad he is. He was awful in the last 3 years with Detroit.

    The price is steep for Arrieta. The Sox would lose a 2nd and a 5th round pick, their 1st round pick would drop 10 spots, and also lose $1 million in international money. The question is this: Would this be worth it if Arrieta helps the team win a World Series? Subjective question, I know.
     
  3. Jerry’s Curl

    Jerry’s Curl lurker

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    I think the answer lies beyond this season. Are they going to pony up big time money to extend Sale?
     
  4. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    They would only lose their 2nd and 500k in IFA money, but yes they would see their 1st rounder drop 10 spots. They only would have lost their 5th rounder and the additional 500k if they had been over the threshold last season.

    The penalty is certainly still too high, though.
     
  5. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    Not ready for prime-time yet. But he might be able to handle some spot starts by mid-season.
     
  6. Jerry’s Curl

    Jerry’s Curl lurker

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    Porcello got rocked today :(
     
  7. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    Did you watch the game? Because from what I saw, Porcello had loads of bleeders and bloops find holes, but basically no hard hit balls, plus he wasn’t cutting loose to get velocity, either. He looked fine today.
     
  8. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Plus, assuming he's really fine, you could replace Porcello with Pomeranz in that post and it still holds true. If this rotation is healthy, it's extremely good.
     
  9. Danny_Darwin

    Danny_Darwin Member SoSH Member

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    Arrieta to the Phillies, so that discussion is moot.
     
  10. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    There's still Alex Cobb to ponder...
     
  11. Jerry’s Curl

    Jerry’s Curl lurker

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    3/75 for a team that won’t contend? Wow.
     
  12. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    It's an up and coming team that will be in the WC picture if Arrieta is healthy and is really well poised to land a big name or two next winter.
     
  13. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    They might start contending in years two to three of that deal, and they have a large market and very few commitments. Value's value, and Arrieta seems like a good veteran for a clubhouse. I think it makes sense.
     
  14. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Agree, it’s smart. Add one of Machado or Donaldson and one of next year’s FA closers and that team likely contends.
     
  15. Danny_Darwin

    Danny_Darwin Member SoSH Member

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    Interesting, too, how he and Santana are both only signed for three years, as though the Phillies are hoping to keep the decks relatively clear for a prominent baseball player who is very connected to the Philly area who will also be a free agent that same offseason...
     
    #115 Danny_Darwin, Mar 11, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2018
  16. Sampo Gida

    Sampo Gida lurker

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    Well, the deal is structured so it could be as little as 2 years and as long as 5 years.

    They were generous with AAV with both, stingy on years.
     
  17. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    You don't screw around with draft picks for Alex Cobb
     
  18. Jerry’s Curl

    Jerry’s Curl lurker

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    Anibal Sanchez released, any interest in a minor league deal?
     
  19. Sampo Gida

    Sampo Gida lurker

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    A 2nd round pick is like a number 60 pick. Aren't we overrating the value of it?
     
  20. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    It's not the position necessarily, or the player they might get with it. It's the loss of the bonus pool allotment for the spot. #60 in the 2017 draft was worth a little over a million dollars. Considering the Sox, in similar draft position last year, had just $5.6M in draft bonus pool money, losing roughly 18% of their available pool allotment isn't exactly a good thing. That affects their ability to sign all of their picks in the first 10 rounds.

    For a team with a rather barren farm system, sacrificing picks and their alloted bonus money isn't exactly the wisest practice.
     
  21. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    On top of what Red said, it's also 500k in IFA money which is capped now and it would drop their top pick 10 spots which further lowers their bonus pool for signing picks.
     
  22. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    Accordingly to the linked article, the Sox are not at the top of the flotsam-and-jetsome wishlist:

    http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red...fficulty-attracting-additional-pitching-depth

    "The Red Sox have had an eye on adding pitching depth in the form of minor-league free agents, according to a baseball source. But, in a situation similar to last year, they’re not the most appealing destination for veteran free agents because opportunity in the big leagues appears scarce."
     
    #122 Pozo the Clown, Mar 14, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2018
  23. Jerry’s Curl

    Jerry’s Curl lurker

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    Poyner continues to impress.
     
  24. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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  25. Sampo Gida

    Sampo Gida lurker

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    I hear you but every pick after the 1st round is a lottery ticket and mid-late first round picks are no certainty. So long as you have the ability to sign your first round pick. The present is more important and if you have a hole to fill in a division with the Yankees and in the same league as the Astros you fill it

    Heck, I do not even mind dropping down 10 spots in the first round for the right guy at the right price
     
  26. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Apparently my internet hiccuped pretty badly and I saw three copies of this post, edited two down, and then the third vanished. So apologies for not quoting you properly. Anyway...

    If they drop 10 spots they won't be in the first round anymore.

    And your dismissal of the value of losing that money is way off base. This isn't the good old days of drafting. The loss of that much money PLUS 500K in IFA money (which, again, is hard capped now) is a huge problem for a team with a bottom third farm system.
     
  27. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Apparently my internet hiccuped. Twice.
     
  28. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    I'm not sure Alex Cobb even fills a hole, never mind one worth taking the hit in draft position, bonus pool, and IFA money. And Dombrowski is paid to think about both the present season and stocking the farm system for subsequent seasons. That's way he has the title he has, along with the money and perks that go along with it.
     
  29. soxeast

    soxeast lurker

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    I think Cobb can fit a role. He might be the team's 3rd best pitcher. With that said, I'm not saying he'd be worth it. Big risk. But also big reward. Potentially he gives all the other starters needed rest. No more throwing Sale 200+ innings just to watch him wear down etc. There are still issues with Price and Pomeranz and ERod. Can't over-use them. Wright is huge question. In addition you have a good idea when he struggles with his knuckleball in hot/humid and other times rain conditions.

    The less starts Wright, Johnson and Velazquez get - that's not a bad thing.

    Next year you can have a ton of money off the books while you signed Cobb for cheap. The Yanks got Neal Walker for $4m for 1 year. You can survive in the future even if you can extend a few players. In play to come off the books next year and if you sign Cobb is Hanley, Pomeranz, Kimbrel, Kelly, JBJ and Holt (this is $55m). Instead you can get some guys that will give you 3 years much cheaper thus bridging the gap a bit due to weak farm.

    And if Wright or Johnson shows anything, then Erod is a candidate for some AA or AAA prospects.
     
  30. Jerry’s Curl

    Jerry’s Curl lurker

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    I’m warming up to the idea of signing Cobb. This team needs to win now while Sale is around.
     
  31. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    Even if this is true (and I'm skeptical), context matters. The right question to ask about the value of a rotation addition is, how much better is this guy than our #5 guy? I'm not even sure who our #5 guy is, our rotation is so flat once you get past Sale and (still sorta kinda) Price. But let's say it's Rodriguez. How much better is Cobb than Rodriguez? Do you give up significant draft assets for that? I think the answers are pretty clearly "not much" and "no."
     
  32. soxeast

    soxeast lurker

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    I agree with you in regards to "even if Cobb" is or is not our 3 best pitcher. I had indicated "he might be." ZIPS has him rated high enough to be the 3rd but it could be data because of his time spent in Tampa pitching park.

    I think our starting staff is solid but ofc that could all go south- just see the Mets from last year-- and we've seen from our hitting mostly all the players at once had a down year. There are no assurances -- which is what makes him appealing too. Plus as stated he can give guys rest. SO I don't entirely agree with your right question to ask - and secondly-- if you (not you personally) were to believe Cobb is 3rd or even 4th best and he is good - why would it matter how separated he is from the number 5 starter? I'm asking nto arguing-- but why wouldn't you want to accumulate the best players you can? And you wont' need to sign Pomeranz-- it's pretty good if he can be had for cheap. If you are skeptical as to how good he is, then yes he isn't worth it. Plus he can easily get hurt based on past history.
     
  33. Danny_Darwin

    Danny_Darwin Member SoSH Member

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    Absent a season-ending injury, it isn't happening. Cobb isn't going to sign to be anyone's insurance policy, so who are you sending to the bullpen or DFAing to make room for him? I doubt anybody is going to trip over himself to offer anything particularly useful for ERod, Wright, or Johnson given the question marks attached, so is your plan to trade Pomeranz? Porcello?
     
  34. The Gray Eagle

    The Gray Eagle Member SoSH Member

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    It would have made some sense to sign Cobb to a multi-year contract if he came cheap and if they were willing to then let Pomeranz walk after this season after giving him the qualifying offer. That way they would get back a decently high draft pick and have more years of control and more stability for the rotation.

    But even that plan won't really work because there's no way to sign Cobb without going over the $237 million threshold for this year. So signing him would cost both the compensation for signing a qualifying offer guy, plus the penalties for going over $237 million. Not going to happen.

    And Cobb probably wouldn't even want to sign with the Red Sox anyway, he could sign with several other teams and be sure of being in the rotation all year. Here, if he's pitching badly in May, he could get sent to the bullpen at least for a while when Rodriguez or Wright is ready.

    This would have been a great offseason to have a lot of payroll space and several roster spots to fill, as there are real potential bargains still out there. But the Red Sox don't have the payroll space or the roster space to do much bargain buying this year. When you finish first two years in a row and don't lose any key free agents, that tends to be the case.

    We're going to be giving starts to Brian Johnson and/or Velazquez in April. Sure it's not ideal and anyone would rather have Cobb make those starts, but It's not going to happen and it's not the end of the world.
     
  35. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    Pomerania seems like a great candidate to end up in QO purgatory.
     
  36. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Couldn't have put it better myself. You can't field an all star team in general, but when there are additional payroll and roster constraints, it's even more difficult to do so.

    This team is rolling into the season with the players they have on hand. Folks are going to have to get used to it and move on.
     
  37. Danny_Darwin

    Danny_Darwin Member SoSH Member

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    If anything, I'd say this is an opportunity for them to see what they have in Johnson/Velazquez/Other to help determine whether they'll need to spend real money to replace Pom in the event of his departure next year, bearing in mind that they don't have an obvious heir apparent to replace Kimbrel. (No, they shouldn't base their decisions on how those guys perform in one month, but it would give them a better idea.)
     
  38. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    This! It’s DDski’s world and we’re all just living in it.
     
  39. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    FWIW, Cobb grew up a Sox fan in outer Boston. He might not wanna sign with a team with depth like ours, but there’s a nonzero chance there are intangible reasons he’d be interested if he’s guaranteed a rotation spot.

    Won’t happen, though. A far more likely scenario is a team trading us a 4-5 or swingman so they could sign Cobb themselves. With Stephen Vogt going down and the Brewers linked to Cobb all offseason, I could see us trading them a catcher for one of their arms. I’m a Swihart believer, but I’d trade him for Josh Hader in a second.
     
  40. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Given the market shift going on there is fairly decent projected chance in play that the Sox wouldn't even extend a QO (outside him having a slam dunk type of productive year, of course). Which barring a very unlikely series of events would only net us a post-4th round pick as an overcap spender anyway .

    If they still like him enough to risk the chance he takes it I'd be guessing on a multi year extension before getting to that point.
     
  41. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Pom accepting the QO is a good scenario. Provided he’s healthy this year, getting him at 1/$18 or so is favorable to ponying up multiple years for Corbin, Happ, Keuchel, Morton, Richards, et al. or trading for a replacement.
     
  42. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    If he has the same year he had last year, he definitely gets the offer, right?
     
  43. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    Pina was more than fine for them last year. I can't see them giving up a young, top set up guy for a back up catcher. Hader is worth actual good prospects. He could be Andrew Miller lite.
     
  44. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    ERod is progressing. From the article linked below:

    "Rodriguez took another big step toward re-entering the Red Sox' rotation, throwing three innings of live batting practice Thursday without incident. The plan is to now get the lefty in game action, which is slated to come March 20 in a minor-league game.

    The performance comes one day after Steven Wright (knee) executed a similar live batting practice, and on the same day Drew Pomeranz (forearm) turned in a bullpen session with an eye to getting his own live BP over the weekend."

    http://www.weei.com/blogs/rob-bradford/eduardo-rodriguez-making-things-interesting-red-sox
     
  45. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    That kind of depends of the surrounding variables in regards to where this teams ends up at. I just know after watching what played out this winter and if I'm Pom that sure thing QO payday might be looking too good to pass up.

    As Chawson pointed out there is certainly a potential scenario though where we extend it, he takes it chasing the higher per/year money, and everybody is generally happy.
     
  46. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    You might be right. But while that might be a problem for Tampa or Oakland, it would be a good outcome for Boston, better than an extension unless he takes a ridiculously low AAV.
     
  47. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    I agree. I’d happily throw them Swihart and Johnson, but it’s not enough.
     
  48. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    Adding to the above: only about half of the teams losing such players are eligible to receive a pick after the first round.

    For the other half, teams under the threshold get a pick around 75-80; teams over the threshold get a pick somewhere around 150 or so. Not necessarily a huge difference.
     
  49. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Again, that depends though. Since with this market shift you can kind of guess that (certain) players are going to be more willing and open to sign more "reasonable" extensions then they maybe have been in the past. As opposed to taking the risk they end up the next Lynn or Cobb, who unlike Darvish/Arrietta don't have the big name ace appeal working in their favor.

    I mean can anybody honestly even feel comfortable venturing an accurate guess to 2017 Pom's potential market atm? I can't. If the Sox are feeling good enough with what they are seeing out of Pom, and instead choose to offer him something like a 3/$40 extension prior to the season ending, does he turn it down?
     
  50. InsideTheParker

    InsideTheParker Member SoSH Member

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    Watching Elias "pitch" at Jet Blue right now, I am moved to wonder when the Sox will need a fifth starter. I know that Wright and Erod are progressing, but I'm not sure when they'll be needed. Please forgive me if this is discussed further up in the thread---it's too long to read for me right now. TIA.
     

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