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Pedroia Predictions

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Rovin Romine, Apr 10, 2019.

  1. Rovin Romine

    Rovin Romine Johnny Rico Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    So, this new guy, Pedroia; what's he got? What are we going to get going forward? And for how long?
     
  2. reggiecleveland

    reggiecleveland sublime Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I was jumped on for saying this earlier, but I think he is done. After a year off he was still not ready to begin the season. I will be happily proven wrong. If anyone can come back it would be him.

    I predict 40+ games where he has some flashes, then back to the DL.
    If he can do the job in the field and OPS+ of 90 he would be pretty valuable, but I think anything less than that and he takes himself out. He does not strike me as a guy to hurt the team if he can't do it.
     
  3. brandonchristensen

    brandonchristensen mad photochops SoSH Member

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    He’s never been not productive. If he’s healthy, I think he’ll provide the team with some decent numbers.
     
  4. rhswanzey

    rhswanzey Member SoSH Member

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    I'd be thrilled to get 100 games / 450 PA of 2014 production: .278/.337/.376

    There's going to be a healthy dose of Brock Holt this year. I think Pedroia's biggest contributions are on defense and in the clubhouse. Keeping him healthy to play the playoff Kinsler role - 2nd base platoon, designated 2B glove - would be terrific. I just don't see how this serious a knee injury isn't going to compound power erosion that was already occurring before the injury.
     
  5. Sampo Gida

    Sampo Gida lurker

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    Didn't watch the whole game but it didn't look like he was moving around too well. I suspect he was activated for opening day as it seems silly asking him to play in this weather after 3 rehab games. Of course the Orioles are like minor league competition so he probably hangs around for that series. I hope I am wrong since a healthy Pedrioa is an upgrade over Nunez/Holt
     
  6. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    He looked pretty slow getting down to first yesterday, but hopefully that is because he’s babying the knee. That can’t last a long time though or he’d be one of the slowest guys in the league. No potentially signature Pedroia plays at second yesterday. I imagine when those happen, he’ll forget about it and bust it more to make the play. I think it’s going to be fingers crossed all year when he goes all out, like Gordon Hayward with the Celtics, who, knock on wood....
     
  7. Mueller's Twin Grannies

    Mueller's Twin Grannies Member SoSH Member

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    He got a hit yesterday, which was encouraging, but it wasn't until the bases were empty. He drove in a run on a GIDP, which killed a rally, and then killed at least one more.

    I think he's probably going to be a utility player in terms of numbers. I can live with him not hitting very well and not being super productive if he can still get on base and field his position. The latter is what concerns me most: when he was at his peak, he was a great 2B with good range despite his stature and an ability to make fast, accurate throws (like his "fuck yeah" throw that preserved the no-hitter game). But with this much wear and tear on his body and a knee that is likely still not 100% and may never be again, the balls that he used to just get to might start bleeding through for hits - the death by a thousand cuts yesterday wasn't all on him but you can't help but wonder if Núñez or Holt (if he'd been healthy) or Lin would have been able to get to balls Pedroia couldn't and if that might have made a difference.
     
  8. Harry Hooper

    Harry Hooper Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    After that tangle at 2B yesterday, I am worried about him being able to play tomorrow.
     
  9. strek1

    strek1 Member SoSH Member

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    We will get the old Pedey at bat once he settles in (And he put the ball in play 4 times yesterday with no K's or Pop-ups). I suspect his range won't be what it was. Now "How long" is really the question. Impossible to predict something like that. He could blow it out again in a couple of games or he could play 3 more years with a reduced workload. I can't even hazard a guess at that. Just keeping fingers crossed.
     
  10. Jerry’s Curl

    Jerry’s Curl lurker

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    I expect him to give the team better offense than a Nunez/Holt platoon and adequate defense at the position.
     
  11. Byrdbrain

    Byrdbrain Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Yes it was bases empty but it was also leading off the 9th in a close game, it wasn't like it was a meaningless at bat.

    He didn't look great but it's one game if he stays healthy he'll be better than what they had. I'd be very surprised if he stayed healthy though.
     
  12. drleather2001

    drleather2001 given himself a skunk spot SoSH Member

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    I expect an intermittent 50-60 games played around a few nagging injuries, a .625 OPS, and a retirement announcement sometime around the all star break.
     
  13. Mueller's Twin Grannies

    Mueller's Twin Grannies Member SoSH Member

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    No, not meaningless, just poorly timed and cause to wonder if it was because the defense was aligned differently or because of who was pitching.

    There's no way he stays healthy for the remaining 150 games. Fortunately, they have a decent amount of depth at his position and can plug someone in pretty easily - maybe Chavis gets a chance this year?
     
  14. findguapo

    findguapo Member SoSH Member

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    I will take the over on expectations, whatever that may be. I saw him playing very up close in a minor league game on the backfields toward the end of spring training, and he made what I would describe as an old signature Pedroia diving play, popped up, and threw the guy out at first. He ran well and looked normal (Yes, my sample size for this is about 1 hour of baseball). I know that can all change very quickly with his injury history, but I am hopeful.
     
  15. oumbi

    oumbi Member SoSH Member

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    Pedroia has two years after this season, at $13m and $12m. That is quite a bit of money to give up.
     
  16. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    True.

    But Pedroia has never done anything to suggest it's all about the money. I agree with the hypothesis that he would retire if he felt he couldn't play to his level anymore
     
  17. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    He's been an amazing member of the Red Sox for a long time, and likely will be a part of the organization forever. If he decides it's time to retire--which I personally don't think will happen--I would bet that the Sox will find a way to be extremely fair with his money.
     
  18. Dernells Casket n Flagon

    Dernells Casket n Flagon Member SoSH Member

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    Might this just be an ARod situation where he is cut/retires so he gets the full amount due to him and can retire somewhat gracefully?

    Is there an Albert Belle scenario where insurance is picking up a big chunk of the contract for the Sox?
     
  19. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    I don't think the money is a concern for the Sox, so insurance doesn't matter. As others have suggested, given the relationship between Pedey and the team, they'd want to take care of him financially regardless of how the end comes about. Where the concern would be is luxury tax implications. If he retires, he doesn't get paid the remainder of his deal but it also takes his salary off the luxury tax count. If he's released, he gets paid 100% of his remaining contract and still counts on the payroll for the life of the original deal (like Sandoval does). The middle ground would probably be a retirement with an agreement to pay him his money as part of a front office or coaching/advisor role in the future.
     
  20. Mueller's Twin Grannies

    Mueller's Twin Grannies Member SoSH Member

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    They could always give him the Bobby Bonilla deal and pay him a million and change every year for the next 20 years or so. I know Bobby probably wouldn't want to share his day with anyone else, so they'd just have to pick a different random date.
     
  21. Philip Jeff Frye

    Philip Jeff Frye Member SoSH Member

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    Wow, can the guy play in a game above 45 degrees before we debate how to gracefully get rid of him?
     
  22. Adrian's Dome

    Adrian's Dome Member SoSH Member

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    Agreed. I understand the concern about his knee, but holy shit guys can we get a reasonable sample size? It's not like he has to do a hell of a lot to outperform Nunez.
     
  23. Dernells Casket n Flagon

    Dernells Casket n Flagon Member SoSH Member

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    I mean, last year he could not. So we'll see whether he actually has that ability.
     
  24. santadevil

    santadevil Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Sorry, first thing that popped into my head was "Fuck You"

    I'm a huge Pedey fan. I'm not expecting a full workload, but it's nice having him back. My expectation are 90 games and slashing something like .295/.390/.400

    And better defense than Nunez/Holt
     
  25. YTF

    YTF Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    What will we get and for how long? I think it's pretty much going to be a crap shoot. Pedroia is clearly on the back nine and I think many would agree that he's probably closer to the 18th hole than the 10th. Even before this long battle with the knee injury there were concerns about health. There have been a litany of hand injuries and a broken foot. He keeps bouncing back and gives this team every ounce of effort that he has. I hope he has something left in the tank, because I hate to see a player who has been such a big part of the team for this long go out this way. We would all love to see the old Pedroia return, but perhaps the best we might hope for is him being the strong side of a platoon situation, playing maybe 4 time a week while continuing to contribute in a meaningful way. I remember when Ortiz looked done about 3-4 seasons before he called it quits, but this feels so much different given the injuries, the fact that he's a second baseman and that it's unlikely that he's going to slide into a full time DH gig.
     
  26. LoweTek

    LoweTek Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I'd like to hear DRS' comments about the injury, length of rehab he took and his thoughts on Pedroia's chances of holding up and not re-injuring it permanently. I know the injury was a very unusual one known to be difficult from which to recover.
     
  27. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    I'm certainly not pushing Pedroia out the door, and I hope he rebounds and is wildly successful. But up to this point, how would you all rate his career?

    Career: .300/.366/.440/.806, 140 hr, 138 sb, 52.0 bWAR, 4 all-stars, 1 ROY, 1 MVP, 2 WS
    First 8 seasons: .302/.370/.454/.823, 38.3 bWAR, 4 all-stars, 1 ROY, 1 MVP, 2 WS
    Last 5 seasons (pre-2019): .295/.359/.413/.772, 13.9 bWAR, 0 all-stars, 0 MVP, 1 WS (as an injured player)
    Peak (2007-2011): .309/.377/.469/.846, 27.6 bWAR, 3 all-stars, 1 ROY, 1 MVP

    I'd say he hasn't, by any measure, had a HOF career. He's in the "hall of very good", which is nothing to sneeze at. His peak was absolutely outstanding. He won one MVP and it's very possible that for that one season he was the best player in the league. Second basemen have only won MVP 16 times in all MLB history, so that's pretty awesome. Just a very dependable and solid player, with some seasons of true excellence. I'd say a definite Red Sox HOFer, but not close to an MLB HOFer. Still, if anyone would have told me back in 2006 that this Pedroia kid would have this kind of career, I'd have taken it in a nanosecond.
     
  28. donutogre

    donutogre Member SoSH Member

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    I'd rate his career as wildly successful, though I think it's valid to question whether he'll make the HOF.

    Baseball Reference has him #10 on the Sox all-time most valuable players in terms of WAR. And obviously we're not sure if he'll be able to play consistently at a good level of production -- but if he does have a decent season, he could pass Ortiz and Pedro to make it to #8.

    That line for his last 5 seasons really isn't bad for someone nearing the end of a career that clearly has taken a physical toll on him. If he can play somewhere around that level and stay on the field for 2/3 of the season, that'd be a pretty successful year IMO. I'd be happy to see him play in four out of seven games while playing solid on both sides of the ball. Fingers crossed that happens!

    I'll say I don't have quite the historical knowledge to say where he stacks up compared to HOF 2nd basemen.

    Like others have said yet, though, let's not bury him yet.
     
  29. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    I'm not DRS, but my understanding was the surgery was something that only two other baseball players have had. One is Steven Wright and the other is Daniel Murphy, so there's no real precedent on which to base expectations of recovery. They're all pretty much at the same stage (certainly Pedroia and Murphy, Wright I think is a few months ahead of them).
     
  30. Philip Jeff Frye

    Philip Jeff Frye Member SoSH Member

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    He's going to be a classic case of the (Bill James?) quote "It's what you do in your thirties that gets you into the Hall of Fame" in that he's got the highlights of a HOF career (MVP award, ROY, World Series championships, Gold Gloves, etc...) but injuries have robbed him of the playing time he's needed to accumulate enough career counting stats to make it.
     
  31. Merkle's Boner

    Merkle's Boner Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Pedroia has the 23rd best B-WAR for all-time second basemen, ahead of 6 Hall of Famers, so I think, by some measures, he's had a HOF career. If he gets 3 more WAR he'd pass two other HOF 2Bers.
     
  32. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    Man, Mazeroski is in the HOF with a BWAR of 36.5, no time lost to any war. Must have been all on that homer against the Yankees.
     
  33. Philip Jeff Frye

    Philip Jeff Frye Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, but he's also behind several others like Lou Whittaker and Bobby Grich who aren't in either.

    Seems like a position where a lot of subjectivity comes into play.
     
  34. Merkle's Boner

    Merkle's Boner Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Agreed. Not a slam dunk by any means but I would guess he stays on the ballot for awhile. Cano is the best 2B of this era, but he's got the PED suspension. The you go down to Utley, Pedey and Kinsler. I would guess 2 of those 4 get in.
     
  35. Doooweeeey!

    Doooweeeey! Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter SoSH Member

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    Nice to see Dustin involved in three double plays tonight, a 1-6-4-3, a 6-4-3 and a 4-6-3.
    A nice quick pivot and a bullet to Moreland in each of first two, and a tidy flip to Bogaerts in the last.

    I hope he holds up. Savoring it while I can.
     
  36. Larry Gardner

    Larry Gardner Member SoSH Member

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    Looking so forward to seeing Pedey hit a high, inside piece of cheese over the Monstah.......
     
  37. redsox11507

    redsox11507 Member SoSH Member

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    It was nice to see him hit the high heat last night. The previous pitch he definitely measured up the high fastball and I commented to my wife how if he saw that pitch again he was going to send it off the wall. Alas, I think that was the Pedey of old, but I'm equally as excited to see his game change and have him send those pitches the other way. I'm pretty high on Pedroia finding a way to contribute to this season in a meaningful way.
     
  38. Danny_Darwin

    Danny_Darwin Member SoSH Member

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    According to Jay Jaffe, 2000 hits is a big separator between HoFers and those who fall just shy. Pedroia's just under 200 short of that right now, but given how the past couple of years have gone for him, it's not necessarily a guarantee. Cano's already there and Kinsler will probably get there this year - I was surprised to see he was ahead of Pedroia, actually. Utley retired last year having not made it.
     
  39. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Kinsler's played about 300 more games than Pedroia, the equivalent of almost two full seasons. That he's 145 hits ahead shouldn't be that surprising.
     
  40. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    Even Willie Randolph is considerably ahead of Pedey in BWAR, and he’ll never catch him. Pedey’s ROY and MVP, and the gold gloves he won will have to get a lot of notice. Randolph won zero gold gloves.
     
  41. Danny_Darwin

    Danny_Darwin Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, my faulty memory - thought he debuted a couple of years after Pedroia for some reason.
     
    #41 Danny_Darwin, Apr 12, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2019
  42. Philip Jeff Frye

    Philip Jeff Frye Member SoSH Member

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    Kinsler's stats are better than I remember them (especially in the power department), but he seems like a pretty poor HOF candidate. Never finished in the top ten in MVP voting, only in the top twenty once, never lead the league in anything other than At Bats and Plate Appearances. His defense was pretty good, but he only won two gold gloves, so lazy Joe Sportswriter might not give him much credit for that. If I'm remembering correctly, his biggest play in the postseason was a catastrophic one.
     
    #42 Philip Jeff Frye, Apr 12, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2019
  43. Adrian's Dome

    Adrian's Dome Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah...Kinsler was more steady than Pedey career wise. I think Laser Show was better early on (and on track to be a HoFer,) but as he got older and injured he just couldn't keep up that 2007-2011 pace. They're both firmly in the Hall of Very Good.
     
  44. Philip Jeff Frye

    Philip Jeff Frye Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, if you combined Pedroia's 20s and Kinsler's 30s, you'd have a pretty clear Hall of Farmer.

    Hopefully, Pedroia's knee is better and we get 2-3 more seasons of +/- 100 OPS over a reasonable number of at bats and some good defense and that pushes him over the top. Not sure what the odds of that are though.
     
  45. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    Maz was also the consensus best defensive second baseman in the history of the game. I realize that’s theoretically captured in his WAR, but there’s something about being the best at something that’s going to capture voters’ imagination beyond its tangible contribution to winning baseball games. It probably still doesn’t get him in without hitting arguably the biggest HR in the history of the sport, but Maz’s case isn’t well captured by statistics.

    Also, iirc Maz was a Vets’ Committee selection back when they were applying a markedly more relaxed standard than the BBWAA, so being better than Maz (which Pedey unquestionably is) won’t sway many voters.
     
  46. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    The Maz-Rizzuto-Ashburn interregnum.
     
  47. charlieoscar

    charlieoscar Member

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    When? During the '50s? The '80s? Today? How do you rate fielders you've never seen, especially when some played before there was field lighting or when teams groomed fields to fit their club (longer grass in the infield, grass near the foul lines in the infield that were "slanted" to encourage balls to roll foul or stay fair), divisions that had lots of artificial turf vs. grass, etc.? Even StatCast, I don't think, is not evaluating infielders as well as outfielders.
     
  48. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    I’m not saying that assessment of Maz’s defense was backed by empirical evidence. I’m saying it was the consensus view at the time of his election — Maz was to second base what Brooks Robinson is to third base and Ozzie Smith is to shortstop. Seems to me that’s a critical part of understanding why a guy with 30-odd career WAR got elected to the Hall (even by the VC); obviously, the big HR is part of the story too.
     
  49. strek1

    strek1 Member SoSH Member

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    So we went from asking if the guy is going to hold up, to a debate on his HOF worthiness? I guess that's a good thing. At least after he had a nice hit yesterday and the double plays it keeps the vultures away from his carcass for a time :p
     
  50. Sandy Leon Trotsky

    Sandy Leon Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    I don't think I've made a prediction yet... but I'll say he'll start to catch fire in about two weeks and sometime around the middle of August he'll be hitting about .775 with 8 HR's and GG caliber defense then reinjure his knee and then retire after another playoffs sitting on the bench and another offseason surgery and expected missing year in 2020. He will also father a child.
     

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