Patriots vs. Titans Divisional Playoff: The Buildup

m0ckduck

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Take a look at the 2011 Patriots defensive backfield in the playoffs and get back to me with that comparison.
Yeah, the 2011 backfield was probably the worst unit of any Belichick-coached Pats team. The usual compare-the-skill-players schtick doesn’t tell the story here in terms of ranking ‘11 vs this year.

Other weakest units? I guess there’s the 2006 receiving corps, 2002 front 7, 2005 backfield. Front 7 this year was not a strength, but still a cut above those units. The O-line has crapped out in some memorable moments across the years, but was never bad across a season IIRC.

Edit: I didn’t spend a moment considering the 2000 team in terms of worst units.
 
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SeoulSoxFan

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If you've missed it, be sure to take a listen (or better yet, subscribe) to the Locked on Patriots podcast, ran by one of our very own @mascho:

https://www.lockedonpatriots.com/

He drops some knowledge on basic formations stuff as well as specific matchups and past trends. If I ever win the lottery, I wouldn't hesitate to turn it into an hour-long video piece stuffed with all the x's & y's stuff we love.
 

kenneycb

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Meh, both are mediocre, Henry probably slightly less so. Murray can catch the ball and presumably is better at picking up blocking assignments and the like.
 

rodderick

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Can someone clue me in on where the "Derrick Henry is a beast" narrative came from? I won't pretend to have watched the Titans closely this season, but looking at his stats it seems like he had a pedestrian season (certainly a worse one than Dion Lewis had, for instance). Is it just that the Titans are so lacking in weapons that people are building him up as a menace?
 

Al Zarilla

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Can someone clue me in on where the "Derrick Henry is a beast" narrative came from? I won't pretend to have watched the Titans closely this season, but looking at his stats it seems like he had a pedestrian season (certainly a worse one than Dion Lewis had, for instance). Is it just that the Titans are so lacking in weapons that people are building him up as a menace?
I didn’t see him at all regular season but he seems to have awakened against KC with 156 yards in 23 attempts. He was rumblin’. I was disappointed when he got the Heisman over McCaffery. Maybe he deserved it if he ran like that.
 

RedOctober3829

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Can someone clue me in on where the "Derrick Henry is a beast" narrative came from? I won't pretend to have watched the Titans closely this season, but looking at his stats it seems like he had a pedestrian season (certainly a worse one than Dion Lewis had, for instance). Is it just that the Titans are so lacking in weapons that people are building him up as a menace?
Him and Murray shared carries this year(184 carries for Murray and 176 for Henry) and Henry only averaged 3.6 YPC so it doesn't seem like he was used as the workhorse back he can be. Last week, he was a beast though. 191 total yards and 2 TDs. He has all the tools to be a physical, downhill running back who wears defenses down the longer the game goes.
 

johnmd20

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Him and Murray shared carries this year(184 carries for Murray and 176 for Henry) and Henry only averaged 3.6 YPC so it doesn't seem like he was used as the workhorse back he can be. Last week, he was a beast though. 191 total yards and 2 TDs. He has all the tools to be a physical, downhill running back who wears defenses down the longer the game goes.
Henry averaged 4.2. Murray was the 3.6. When Henry got a chance, he was way better than Murray.

Henry isn't a beast but he's not Eddie Lacy-like like Murray was. Addition by subtraction.
 

Harry Hooper

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Mitchell's status not looking good, per Howe:

Wide receiver Malcolm Mitchell, who is still on injured reserve, was absent for the second day in a row. It’s possible this means the Patriots have shut him down for the remainder of the season, but there hasn’t been an official word on that at this point. They have until Jan. 17 to activate him to the 53-man roster and won’t disclose his status on the official injury report because he isn’t on the active roster.
Also, Burkhead looking rough at practice:

Burkhead had a brace on his left knee and couldn’t complete most of his stretches that pertained to the left leg. He favored the knee while lunging to that side and also couldn’t pull back his left foot while stretching his quad.

This doesn’t necessarily mean Burkhead won’t be able to play or that he can’t be effective with treatment prior to the game, but it was easy to notice the knee remained an issue today as the Patriots prepared for a fully padded practice on the Gillette Stadium game field.
 

BigSoxFan

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Don’t see any reason to push it with Burkhead. Let this be a Dion, White, Gillislee affair.
 

pokey_reese

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Honestly, if we could get Branch, Van Noy, White, and Hogan back reasonably healthy, I would be fine with that. Even Hogan I could see giving one more week if he really isn't ready yet. I think the Pats can win this game without him, so I wouldn't rush him or Burkhead back.
 

TheoShmeo

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In a sea of Wickersham, Volin and CHB generated feces, Karen Guregian makes a salient point about Saturday's game: The Titans were dead last at defending passes to RBs, allowing 967 yards.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/patriots/2018/01/guregian_patriots_pass_catching_backs_could_run_wild_against_titans

It's no secret that the Pats like to throw to their RBs, Dion, Rex and JW are all great catch passing backs and the Pats game plan according to their opponents' tendencies and weaknesses. My only question is whether this is so obvious that McDaniels might try something else because the Titans will be expecting it and indeed probably are, per Logan Ryan's comments. My guess is no, they will go right at this.
 

joe dokes

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In a sea of Wickersham, Volin and CHB generated feces, Karen Guregian makes a salient point about Saturday's game: The Titans were dead last at defending passes to RBs, allowing 967 yards.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/patriots/2018/01/guregian_patriots_pass_catching_backs_could_run_wild_against_titans

It's no secret that the Pats like to throw to their RBs, Dion, Rex and JW are all great catch passing backs and the Pats game plan according to their opponents' tendencies and weaknesses. My only question is whether this is so obvious that McDaniels might try something else because the Titans will be expecting it and indeed probably are, per Logan Ryan's comments. My guess is no, they will go right at this.

I think they will, too. At least to see early how Tenn is trying to defend it / what they are giving up to do so. I'm not schooled enough to know exactly how it works, but I think about 95% of the times that Develin splits out wide it's simply a method to figure out the gaps in the defensive scheme.
 

tims4wins

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In a sea of Wickersham, Volin and CHB generated feces, Karen Guregian makes a salient point about Saturday's game: The Titans were dead last at defending passes to RBs, allowing 967 yards.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/patriots/2018/01/guregian_patriots_pass_catching_backs_could_run_wild_against_titans

It's no secret that the Pats like to throw to their RBs, Dion, Rex and JW are all great catch passing backs and the Pats game plan according to their opponents' tendencies and weaknesses. My only question is whether this is so obvious that McDaniels might try something else because the Titans will be expecting it and indeed probably are, per Logan Ryan's comments. My guess is no, they will go right at this.
I think they will, too. At least to see early how Tenn is trying to defend it / what they are giving up to do so. I'm not schooled enough to know exactly how it works, but I think about 95% of the times that Develin splits out wide it's simply a method to figure out the gaps in the defensive scheme.
The thing is - as we saw during the first half of the KC game - they are also awful at covering TEs (24th). So they can't double everyone.
 

simplyeric

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In a sea of Wickersham, Volin and CHB generated feces, Karen Guregian makes a salient point about Saturday's game: The Titans were dead last at defending passes to RBs, allowing 967 yards.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/patriots/2018/01/guregian_patriots_pass_catching_backs_could_run_wild_against_titans

It's no secret that the Pats like to throw to their RBs, Dion, Rex and JW are all great catch passing backs and the Pats game plan according to their opponents' tendencies and weaknesses. My only question is whether this is so obvious that McDaniels might try something else because the Titans will be expecting it and indeed probably are, per Logan Ryan's comments. My guess is no, they will go right at this.
I'd guess that they start by playing it straight..do what they've always done, and try to make the RB's work. If the Titan's somehow show ability to cover that, the Patriots will shift, and spread out downfield, with WR's and of course Gronk.
 

Saints Rest

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What I wonder is if they will treat this the way they used to go against Pitt, with pass-pass-pass. (I recall one game where I think the first 15 plays were passes.). In those games, the personnel would often be no RB's or one split wide. Here, I wonder if they go with two RB's, maybe even RB/FB, to get Tenn to commit to a traditional front 7, and then split everyone out wide.
 

bakahump

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He has all the tools to be a physical, downhill running back who wears defenses down the longer the game goes.
I am not picking on RedOctober but I have to ask. Is this a real thing? I know for years this was said about Earl Campbell and Franco Harris (Bettis, Zeke etc etc) type guys. But I have a hard time imagining that 1 235lb Guy can deliver 30+ hits a game to at least 5 different guys (the assorted Tacklers that tackle them during a game) and consider the Idea that he is punishing THEM.

I suppose for a few games (which to be fair is the example (2018 playoffs) Red was talking about, a guy might be able to withstand the punishment. "longish term" i just cant see it (Bettis, Harris, Riggins, Campbell Examples Noted and ignored because they dont backup my theory :p )
 

RedOctober3829

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I am not picking on RedOctober but I have to ask. Is this a real thing? I know for years this was said about Earl Campbell and Franco Harris (Bettis, Zeke etc etc) type guys. But I have a hard time imagining that 1 235lb Guy can deliver 30+ hits a game to at least 5 different guys (the assorted Tacklers that tackle them during a game) and consider the Idea that he is punishing THEM.

I suppose for a few games (which to be fair is the example (2018 playoffs) Red was talking about, a guy might be able to withstand the punishment. "longish term" i just cant see it (Bettis, Harris, Riggins, Campbell Examples Noted and ignored because they dont backup my theory :p )
Yes, it's a real thing. Bigger backs are harder to take down as fatigue sets in.
 

bakahump

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But at the same time Fatigue doesnt affect a bigger Back making him slow down and easier to tackle?

I get it...its been "common knowledge" for 50+ years.
While I agree there is a often a reason for common knowledge I also think it can be overblown and parroted to the point where is kind of meaningless.
I am really not trying to have an argument. I am simply questioning if what we have all said for 50+ years actually makes sense. The Baseball forum is full of similar discussions.
I see where "special backs" are always gonna be successful, early, late, fresh or tired and perhaps said so badly and tongue in cheek in my original post. But I dont know if I agree ALL (or even Most) backs over a certain size are gonna be successfull simply due to that size and how many times they have run the ball.

Can a negative game situation influence this possibility? Sure! If Henry is in the Secondary "All Day Long" and pounding Mccourty or Butler (smaller players) repeatedly then yes I think there is logic to your statement.

I just dont get how "Fatigue and Punishment" will only affect one side of the equation. If it was Henry Vs Van Noy 35 times then I might agree that Van Noy will tire faster then Henry. If Henry Vs. Mccourty (as previously mentioned) then Sure. But seeing as its (Should be) Van Noy, Roberts (hopefully in small doses) Flowers, Flowers, Chung, Mccourty etc etc against Henry I am not convinced.
 

Bowhemian

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But at the same time Fatigue doesnt affect a bigger Back making him slow down and easier to tackle?
I think that part of it is that the bigger back is only in for ~20-30 snaps, where the fatigued defensive players are in for a lot more than that.
 

RedOctober3829

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But at the same time Fatigue doesnt affect a bigger Back making him slow down and easier to tackle?

I get it...its been "common knowledge" for 50+ years.
While I agree there is a often a reason for common knowledge I also think it can be overblown and parroted to the point where is kind of meaningless.
I am really not trying to have an argument. I am simply questioning if what we have all said for 50+ years actually makes sense. The Baseball forum is full of similar discussions.
I see where "special backs" are always gonna be successful, early, late, fresh or tired and perhaps said so badly and tongue in cheek in my original post. But I dont know if I agree ALL (or even Most) backs over a certain size are gonna be successfull simply due to that size and how many times they have run the ball.

Can a negative game situation influence this possibility? Sure! If Henry is in the Secondary "All Day Long" and pounding Mccourty or Butler (smaller players) repeatedly then yes I think there is logic to your statement.

I just dont get how "Fatigue and Punishment" will only affect one side of the equation. If it was Henry Vs Van Noy 35 times then I might agree that Van Noy will tire faster then Henry. If Henry Vs. Mccourty (as previously mentioned) then Sure. But seeing as its (Should be) Van Noy, Roberts (hopefully in small doses) Flowers, Flowers, Chung, Mccourty etc etc against Henry I am not convinced.
It's not just RB vs. the defenders. It's the constant pounding the defenders take when they take on blocks as well. Combine taking on 300+ lb. linemen then tackling a 225-250 lb. back who is seeking out contact as most of them do.
 

dynomite

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The thing is - as we saw during the first half of the KC game - they are also awful at covering TEs (24th). So they can't double everyone.
Yeah, this could be a game where Lewis and White are both on the field for a few snaps.

The Titans struggle to defend against RBs in the passing game, and putting 2 backs who can catch on the field at the same time — in addition to Gronk, of course — could create some nice mismatches.
 

PedroKsBambino

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What I wonder is if they will treat this the way they used to go against Pitt, with pass-pass-pass. (I recall one game where I think the first 15 plays were passes.). In those games, the personnel would often be no RB's or one split wide. Here, I wonder if they go with two RB's, maybe even RB/FB, to get Tenn to commit to a traditional front 7, and then split everyone out wide.
This is my guess at their 'preferred' set. What I'm uncertain of is whether they start with it or start with their more traditional sets and plan to switch to this if they aren't productive enough with other sets.

I don't think this is unique to TN either---for me, the two RBs who can flex out or run is the new version of the two pass-catching TE sets...Pats can force D to commit on personnel, and then try to read the coverage scheme, and audible in or out based on those. And then they can go up-tempo as well.
 

BusRaker

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I am not picking on RedOctober but I have to ask. Is this a real thing? I know for years this was said about Earl Campbell and Franco Harris (Bettis, Zeke etc etc) type guys. But I have a hard time imagining that 1 235lb Guy can deliver 30+ hits a game to at least 5 different guys (the assorted Tacklers that tackle them during a game) and consider the Idea that he is punishing THEM.

I suppose for a few games (which to be fair is the example (2018 playoffs) Red was talking about, a guy might be able to withstand the punishment. "longish term" i just cant see it (Bettis, Harris, Riggins, Campbell Examples Noted and ignored because they dont backup my theory :p )
I would imagine using a scatter plot to look at yards per carry by running back weight or "punishment factor" (force = mass * acceleration) versus time into game from 0 to 60 min would easily prove or disprove this theory.