Patriots Sign Stephon Gilmore
- Thread starter Dr. Gonzo
- Start date
Seriously? Have you watched him play? In this offense, Cooks would be a deadly slot receiver and could be used interchangeably with Edelman on the same side of the offense. I would love to see Cooks as a Patriot.
That's negotiating. What the Saints want and what they get are different things.
And Cooks is really, really good--160 catches and 17 TDs the last 2 seasons. The Pats and Saints are very familiar with each other, there's a reason BB likes him.
Color me not shocked if this happens. Two legit CB1s for two years, and maybe draft a high ceiling CB in the 3rd to develop with Cyrus and Rowe. Worst case, someone makes Butler an offer that doesn't get matched, and we get a first round CB.
I think if anything this means Hightower gets an extension. Lock up HT at 10-13 per like has been reported, and you still have cap flexibility. With the draft being this deep, I can see BB trading for some more picks to shore up some of the positions he'd be overpaying to fill in free agency
aside from the fact that every single move will get "some" wrath from "some" media/fans, that is an absolutely absurd statement... and yes, as stated above, imagine when he trades Tom.
100% this. Cooks can catch a short ball in the slot and simply outrun a couple of guys for a 30-yard gain. And he's younger than Mitchell.
Beyond what has been mentioned about considerations above. You can't pro-rate the signing bonus if you do this. It would accelerate all onto the Patriots salary cap for that year as soon as they trade him (as they would be the team signing him) so you would have to place a lot more guaranteed salary throughout the contract to get the player to agree. Teams like to minimize guaranteed dollars as much as possible so they can cut guys in year 3, 4, or 5 of the contract with little salary cap harm.
If you go and look at a lot of the contracts the better salary cap teams put out now, you'll see 5 to 6 year deals pop up a lot with very little guaranteed money beyond year 3. With relatively low salaries in year 1-3 and the majority of the back end being non-guaranteed so they can cut bait easily. They are typically 5-6 years so that a 20-30 million signing bonus is 4-6 mill per year hit. Usually if you cut the guy in year 3, you are looking at a 8-12 million hit (while not fun, isn't a horrible killer to your cap).
Interesting chart from PFF. Butler was thrown at more last year but Gilmore missed one game. Numbers are roughly even except for Passes Defended. However, Pro Football Reference has Gilmore having 12 PD, not 6 that PFF has. Both seem like similar players but Gilmore gives you a little more length and is younger.
Allen and Gilmore are the first couple of shoes to drop. I have a feeling that shit is about to get crazy, because if they also get Cooks, there are a LOT of receivers on this roster. Someone else will likely have to go, and I wrote this in the FA thread - but is it Gronk, with the Pats moving to more 4-WR sets and a power running game (maybe with AP)?
I'm not sure an RFA with attached draft pick compensation can be traded until he signs the tender from the prior club. And, if he signs the tender, he's not eligible to be signed by another club after the trade, as he's no longer an RFA. The following is from the CBA:
The exceptions are for draft picks and RFA's with solely right of first refusal options (aka, no draft pick compensation attached).
Basically, NO only does the trade if Butler agrees to sign an extension with the Saints.
Uh yea hes a pro bowl corner. Hes very good. More Talib like and with Ryan leaving (whom they generally put on the big corners) this isnt totally shocking.
With the caveat that predicting what Bill will do is generally a fool's errand, and the additional caveat that we're currently looking at a disassembled engine with parts still on the floor, I doubt it would be Gronk. I don't see Belichick valuing the 4th or 5th rounder that he would get in return all that highly as compared to what Gronk brings to the table. And the cap savings this year are minimal at best.
Cooks is really good, but I think the difference between him and the guys he'd take snaps from (Mitchell / Amendola / Hogan) is smaller than the difference between Butler and the CBs who'd take his snaps. I wouldn't trade Butler for Cooks straight up unless Butler has told them he's going to hold out or something. And Cooks is a UFA in two seasons anyway so he's going to get expensive.
I understand that economics play a huge, pivotal role but I don't understand this from on field perspective. To wit:
- the Pats WR crew, while not young (except Mitchell) , is still very effective and deep; Edelman, Hogan and Mitchell all should be effective for at least a few more years; and Amendola at a restructured deal seems like a good 4th given how much Tom seems to rely on him
- in addtion to the WRs, they have excellent pass catchers at RB and TE with Gronk, Lewis, White and Allen
- finding really effective corners is difficult; Butler is a true number one corner; Gilmore would be the only one left and he's untested in this system
- I am assuming that Ryan is gone
- Rowe only played slot corner last year and it seems to be that he got beat a lot; I know some in this thread have expressed approval but Rowe was one of my big worries heading into the SB
At bottom, a Cooks-Butler deal would mean they are augmenting a position of strength and leaving themselves with only one truly effective corner. Don't get me wrong, I like Cooks a lot for this team. The highlights I've seen make me giddy and I like that Bill has gotten a good look at him in practice. But....
- the Pats WR crew, while not young (except Mitchell) , is still very effective and deep; Edelman, Hogan and Mitchell all should be effective for at least a few more years; and Amendola at a restructured deal seems like a good 4th given how much Tom seems to rely on him
- in addtion to the WRs, they have excellent pass catchers at RB and TE with Gronk, Lewis, White and Allen
- finding really effective corners is difficult; Butler is a true number one corner; Gilmore would be the only one left and he's untested in this system
- I am assuming that Ryan is gone
- Rowe only played slot corner last year and it seems to be that he got beat a lot; I know some in this thread have expressed approval but Rowe was one of my big worries heading into the SB
At bottom, a Cooks-Butler deal would mean they are augmenting a position of strength and leaving themselves with only one truly effective corner. Don't get me wrong, I like Cooks a lot for this team. The highlights I've seen make me giddy and I like that Bill has gotten a good look at him in practice. But....
Thanks.
Now my head hurts.
General question: If Butler is gone either via trade or another team signing him, does that re-open Logan Ryan as a #2, or has that boat sailed?
and fwiw I am uncomfortable trading a #1 CB for another receiver, TB seems to have the ability to turn small white guys into champs.
We have said this time and again, PFF is garbage and shouldn't be used for any kind of analysis. Their grades are essentially made up.
The same thought occurred to me ... tho it is being reported that Ryan is talking with the Steelers. Not sure how far along that is, however ...
For a division that is supposedly made of Tomato Cans, BB pretty often takes their detritus and then beats said Cans with their own castoffs.
Cooks is a lot better than any of our receivers not named Edelman.
And he's still better, and much younger, than Edelman, and can play both in the slot or on the outside. I feel comfortable saying that Cooks isnt far off from Antonio Brown, with the potential to be better than Brown (he's a good deal faster: Cooks ran a 4.33, Brown ran a 4.48). He's also only 23 and five years younger than Brown. Between his speed and versatility, you can see why BB is going after him hard.
First off, the difference between Cooks and any combo of any non-Edelman WR on the Pats roster is much greater than the difference between Butler and Gilmore. Second, I doubt that the Patriots are done exploring the CB market to replace Ryan, if he leaves. Third, I'd rather be faced with potentially investing in a 25 year old WR after two years of reasonable cost than a 27 year old CB at a far higher cost over the next 2+ years. This is smart cap/roster management.
Playing Devils advocate... Are we sure Butler is a true #1? Ryan consistently covered the #1 receiver last year with Butler manning the slot guy or the #2. I get the scheme and bracketing with a safety but do you think BB is factoring this into his decision?
I didn't reference their grade. They have similar numbers outside their made up grade, which is what I was referencing in the post.
I don't disagree with anything except the bolded.
Edelman will be 31 next year, same age as Wes Welker in his last 1000+ yard season. Hogan will be 29. Ocho-Cinco and Randy Moss fell off the cliff at 33. Brandon Lloyd was a shell of himself at 31. Torry Holt declined rapidly at 32; teammate Az Hakim was done by 29.
While some receivers can continue to be effective into their mid-to-late 30's, it's not wise to count on that fact. Wouldn't be totally unexpected if Mitchell is the only one of that group remaining by the time the 2018 season rolls around.
Yeah, I think Cooks could be really something special in the Patriots offense.
The downside of the Welker/Edeleman slot play has always been teams playing a single high safety and robber underneath, knowing they can't get beat deep. The wheel route to Edelman had to be one of the plays they saw open time and again on the sideline if Edelman could just beat his defenders with speed. Even a mediocre defense like the Falcons could get work done by pressing hard and cheating underneath.
Imagine Cooks in that context. He has the same short-space quickness as the Welker/Edelman types, but can also take the top off the defense. Cooks allows them to threaten the deep part of the field in a way they haven't since Moss. He would be insane in the Pats offense.
Yeah, it's great that BB is thinking not just about next year, but beyond. We're so focused on 2017, but he's also zeroed in on 2018.
If we're so flush with cash, instead of Butler for cooks, I'd rather package Hogan, Cyrus (selling low I know) a mid/low pick and maybe someone like Valentine or someone else that won't be an impact player for us. Saints need a LOT of help at D.
Or quite frankly, maybe just Jimmy G for Cooks and Grayson
Or quite frankly, maybe just Jimmy G for Cooks and Grayson
I think this contract was done with a thought towards comfort if either Butler or Hightower leave. If we can't generate pressure on the QB we need two lock down corners, if we get Hightower back and the D-line improves Butler may not be as critical. Past contracts don't mean anything in comparison, this is the year of the Benjamins in the NFL...
Yeah, if Brady continues to throw a good deep ball, Cooks becomes our "Madden" glitch. Assuming a healthy Gronk (assuming he stays, which I think he would unless someone blew the Pats away with a high pick or blue chip player), Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell and maybe Amendola, a possible addition of Cooks would round out the greatest Patriots offense - on paper - ever.
And that's before we consider the possible addition of AP, which I don't see happening, but if it did...
So, you'd underbid Cooks so much that not only would the Saints reject the offer, it'd probably ruin Payton and Belichick's friendship?
PFF can't even be trusted on the "targets" figure. What if they're in zone? Who's responsibility is a particular WR on a certain play? Not even other coaches know that for sure; I guarantee you that PFF knows even less.
They're garbage. They exist so I suppose we have to acknowledge them, but frankly I'd prefer they never get mentioned here again, because they're not only useless but misleading as well.
(For the record I like Butler a lot more than Gilmore, who I saw as a Ryan replacement, so I have no dog in this fight).
It is truly amazing watching BB work, every off-season there are certain expectations of what may occur with several dozen "these players are safe and key members" and almost every year one or two of the safe key contributors are moved. If BB truly loves JG as much as it seems I wouldn't at this point be surprised to see him remain, sign a long term contract and see Brady traded to SF next off-season. It would make me the fanboy puke, but we just have no idea what his 2018/19/20 board looks like and time will tell if TB12 is the one BB can't quit.
But also not much beyond that other than the seemingly permanent flexibility BB keeps by not creating a dead money pit. Which is also wise in a game where the average career is so short, the prime years of even the best players at demanding positions are few, and the contracts are not guaranteed. Just look at the turnover between 49 and 51. There were about 20(?) repeaters.
Here's the other factor regarding Butler: His agent Derek Simpson pretty much has only one bankable NFL client and that's #21. Both player and agent know that this is his one big shot at a significant payday and I'd bet that they overplayed their hand in contract talks with the Pats. We have seen time and again when a player/agent tries to play hardball with Belichick, Plan B quickly goes into effect.
Meanwhile, the Pats are probably telling the Saints if they come to a contract agreement with Butler, the Pats will match it, Butler will sign and then trade to NO for Cooks so that the Saints don't have to cough up the first round pick. It's a nifty bit of leverage for Belichick.
EDIT: It appears that Miguel from Patscap just Tweeted something very similar to my second paragraph.
Meanwhile, the Pats are probably telling the Saints if they come to a contract agreement with Butler, the Pats will match it, Butler will sign and then trade to NO for Cooks so that the Saints don't have to cough up the first round pick. It's a nifty bit of leverage for Belichick.
EDIT: It appears that Miguel from Patscap just Tweeted something very similar to my second paragraph.
If the Pats sign Butler to a matched contract, they cannot trade him unless the player and NFLPA sign off on it. Seems likely, but if there's any evidence of side agreements between the Pats and the Saints, Roger will come hunting for blood while the PA files a grievance.
Honestly, I'm starting to think this way as well. They hold onto Brady through next year, then the trade of all trades happens, and then they franchise and move onto Jimmy. I wonder if they're starting to think about how to get younger at every position on O, so they're gearing up for a final year with TB12 with the idea that the players and picks they're acquiring will help the team seamlessly (or as seamlessly as possible) transition from #12 to #10. Remember: Jimmy throws a damn good deep ball - I think most would agree that it's better than Brady's - and they're currently trying to acquire a 23-year-old deep threat.
That said, who knows? BB could go in a million different directions from here and I bet that's exactly how he likes it.
One thing seems somewhat certain and yet strange to think about: Stephon Gilmore, from this day forward, will likely be a Patriot longer than Tom Brady.
Plus there would always be a shadow roster spot for Danny in case of emergency and he didn't land anywhere else.
Why exactly would they file a grievance? Doing the deal this way facilitates the player getting more money a year earlier.
They wouldn't do it either unless there was no upfront money. Otherwise Pats are hit with dead money on cap.
Butler would need to sign the tender offer. Then they can trade him without any cap issues.
I don't know about Jimmy having a better deep ball than Brady.
TB12 was pretty good this past year.
I think I know the source of that quote - it is as Mike Lombardi from a Bill Simmons podcast where he said in practice Jimmy throws the deep ball better than Tom.
I do realize that historically the deep ball hasn't been Brady's best strength.
I haven't seen enough of Jimmy in games that count to support or refute that opinion.
Re - BB trading Brady so he can build around Jimmy would be a sad day for this Pats fan, but the NFL is a business
I love TB12 as much as the next guy, but realistically what would a team like SF give up for a 40 year old QB turning 41 the next season.
I would think it would be nowhere near the draft haul they could get for Jimmy.
NO and the Pats can work out a trade, which would allow Butler to get his money. But any side agreement that circumvents the CBA would be frowned upon by both the Sheriff and the PA.