Patriots Select OLB Jamie Collins at #52

Phragle

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Jason Babin, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Elvis Dumervil and Kamerion Wimbley all played ok at DE without offering a thing in the run game.
 

Super Nomario

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phragle said:
Yes.  That was his primary role from when he was drafted until he was benched and used only on ST.

I know.  I said he isn't getting on the field.  
 
But you know all that.  This isn't a short term topic.  I'm suggesting they give up on the coverage linebacker experiment because it doesn't and never did make any sense.
Collins is an intriguing talent because of his physical tools, but I never understood what they intended to do with him. His best fit seems to be 3-4 OLB, but they're playing a lot of 3-man fronts now and he still can't get on the field. They benched Buchanan as the sub edge rusher, but pulled Carter out of retirement instead of giving Collins a crack. Do they not think his technique is up to par? Are they worried he's too undisciplined? Is he that much of a liability against the run? I have no idea what's going on, but I never really understood what they hoped he would be.
 
PFF grades the Patriots' pass-rush as 2nd-worst in football, but their sack rate at 7.9% is actually better than the league average of 6.8%. FO has them 18th. Who the hell knows?
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Thats not why he was drafted though, was it?
 
Wasn't part of the hype his athleticism, which would have transferred very well as a 3-4 OLB?
 
The scheme may not be a match right now, but that doesn't mean he won't be a match in the future.
 
Edit: To add on, I thought it was pretty clear that he was super raw and was going to take time to develop (if he did at all). A little over half a season is enough developmental time for him now?
 

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Super Nomario said:
Collins is an intriguing talent because of his physical tools, but I never understood what they intended to do with him. His best fit seems to be 3-4 OLB, but they're playing a lot of 3-man fronts now and he still can't get on the field. They benched Buchanan as the sub edge rusher, but pulled Carter out of retirement instead of giving Collins a crack. Do they not think his technique is up to par? Are they worried he's too undisciplined? Is he that much of a liability against the run? I have no idea what's going on, but I never really understood what they hoped he would be.
 
You don't take anything from him being used almost exclusively as a 4-3 OLB in a coverage role?
 
Kenny F'ing Powers said:
Wasn't part of the hype his athleticism, which would have transferred very well as a 3-4 OLB?
 
The scheme may not be a match right now, but that doesn't mean he won't be a match in the future.
 
Edit: To add on, I thought it was pretty clear that he was super raw and was going to take time to develop (if he did at all). A little over half a season is enough developmental time for him now?
 
You think he'll develop into a good 3-4 OLB by playing (or not recently) 4-3 OLB?
 

Super Nomario

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phragle said:
You don't take anything from him being used almost exclusively as a 4-3 OLB in a coverage role?
We don't have the same take on events. The only game I looked into extensively was week 1, where the two snaps he played were at 3-4 OLB with Spikes out. Weeks 3-4-5 he seemed to be used in the coverage roles you mention (PFF has him for 40 snaps, 32 of them in coverage). Then when Mayo got hurt he got a more expansive role in the base defense (46 snaps weeks 6-7-8, only 10 of those in coverage).
 
phragle said:
You think he'll develop into a good 3-4 OLB by playing (or not recently) 4-3 OLB?
The Pats have been playing as much 3-4 as 4-3 and maybe more since Wilfork and Kelly went out. It seems like between the front seven injuries and more 3-man fronts that it would lead to more playing time for Collins, and it's somewhat disappointing it hasn't played out that way. I'd like to see him used as an edge rusher in more sub packages, and maybe we'll see that more the last few weeks without as many rushing QBs where contain is more of an issue.
 
What would you like to see happen here?
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Can we end the Jamie Collins 'coverage linebacker' Experiment?  He isn't playing well enough to get on the field even with Mayo out.  He doesn't have the same freakish athleticism when compared to linebackers as he does when compared to defensive ends.  He plays about as well as you would expect a DE to play at linebacker.


Teehee.
 

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What say the SoSH football cognoscenti on Collins' performance tonight? Coming out party? Encouraging first sign? He seemed to be in on a ton of plays.
 

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Looked pretty good out there today. Pretty impressive that he could run with Welker.
 
In my wildest, most optimistic dream scenario, the Patriots have a young Donnie Edwards on their hands.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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He was around the ball a lot and played pretty well in coverage, often with some difficult assignments, from what I could tell from the TV broadcast. I still think he's pretty bad against the run and was likely part of that problem tonight (although not as much as the interior DL).

I still don't understand why they hardly ever let him rush the passer.
 

riboflav

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
He was around the ball a lot and played pretty well in coverage, often with some difficult assignments, from what I could tell from the TV broadcast. I still think he's pretty bad against the run and was likely part of that problem tonight (although not as much as the interior DL).

I still don't understand why they hardly ever let him rush the passer.
 
I know because when they did, he was disruptive.
 

Stitch01

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Where the heck did that come from last night?  Was great to see someone who could run out there in coverage.
 

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He made some great plays but we should pump the brakes some. Much of his play happened off screen. Until someone looks at the all 22 we won't know about the plays he didn't make or the mistakes he made. It's so tough to judge how a player who spends his time in coverage actually played.

I'm hoping that the good plays significantly outnumbered the bad and thst he earned himself more playing time. Because when it was good it was really good.
 

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This may well be an example of 1) a guy needing a lot of development work during the season and 2) a very good fit in terms of skills/role for the particular opponent.  Even though the stat sheet shows a lot of running from Denver, seemed clear the Pats gameplan was to deny the short passing game and make something else beat them.  Collins is well-suited physically for that---whether coverage or occasional rush.  So the shot came, and he performed.

I think we'll learn more about whether it's a breakthrough or just situational next week, since the gameplan vs Houston will be very different (and not inherently all that great a fit with Collins' skillset)
 

soxfan121

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Per Reiss/ESPNBlog, Collins played 22 snaps and had ten tackles. 
 
That's an impact performance in limited playing time (90 total defensive snaps).
 

IdiotKicker

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The fact that he only played 22 snaps shocks me, mostly because he seemed to be around the ball every single time and ended up with 10 tackles for the game.  While his breakup of Welker was huge, the most impressive play to me was when he absolutely destroyed one of the Denver RBs on a twist and almost got to Peyton.  Really encouraging, but still just one game in limited time.
 

Toe Nash

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If we're thinking of the same play, Peyton fumbled there. Not sure if Collins caused the fumble exactly but he was going to hit him a moment later and he likely caused Manning to hurry at least.
 

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Toe Nash said:
If we're thinking of the same play, Peyton fumbled there. Not sure if Collins caused the fumble exactly but he was going to hit him a moment later and he likely caused Manning to hurry at least.
The (accurate) assessment from the game thread was that Collins ferocious rush forced Peyton to shit his pants.
 

IdiotKicker

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Toe Nash said:
If we're thinking of the same play, Peyton fumbled there. Not sure if Collins caused the fumble exactly but he was going to hit him a moment later and he likely caused Manning to hurry at least.
 
Yeah it was the one where Manning started to roll left and just had the ball slip out of his hand as he started to move.
 

Super Nomario

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Toe Nash said:
If we're thinking of the same play, Peyton fumbled there. Not sure if Collins caused the fumble exactly but he was going to hit him a moment later and he likely caused Manning to hurry at least.
Fletcher was in there, too. It looked like Moreno had blitz pickup but ended up having to get two guys. It didn't work out.
 
The breakup of the Welker pass was a huge play. That was 3rd-and-8. If he doesn't break up the pass but makes the tackle, it's a 4th-and -3 or -4, close enough for Denver to go for it. Maybe they win it there. At 4th-and-8, Del Rio punted.
 

RedOctober3829

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Mugsys Jock said:
The (accurate) assessment from the game thread was that Collins ferocious rush forced Peyton to shit his pants.
The A-gap pressure that I talked about came from Collins and another player on that play.  He couldn't get out of the way of the rush and lost the ball.  That's how you disrupt Peyton Manning, not from the edges.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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RedOctober3829 said:
The A-gap pressure that I talked about came from Collins and another player on that play.  He couldn't get out of the way of the rush and lost the ball.  That's how you disrupt Peyton Manning, not from the edges.
 
I know it was a talking point in the game thread last night, but A-gap pressure is pretty much how you disrupt any QB.
 

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Super Nomario said:
Fletcher was in there, too. It looked like Moreno had blitz pickup but ended up having to get two guys. It didn't work out.
 
The breakup of the Welker pass was a huge play. That was 3rd-and-8. If he doesn't break up the pass but makes the tackle, it's a 4th-and -3 or -4, close enough for Denver to go for it. Maybe they win it there. At 4th-and-8, Del Rio punted.
 
It is pretty exciting to think we might have a LB that can cover a TE nevermind a slot WR.
 
The jury is still very much out but I don't think anyone can complain about the early returns from the 2013 draft class as a whole.  This appears to be just the draft this D desperately needed and it already paying off dividends.
 

RedOctober3829

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Kenny F'ing Powers said:
 
I know it was a talking point in the game thread last night, but A-gap pressure is pretty much how you disrupt any QB.
Of course it is, but with how Quick Peyon gets rid of the ball you don't have much time to come off the edges. It's more important against him and Brady than anyone else.
 

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Pulled this back up to get a tenor of the current thinking on what we have here.  After a long spell on the bench, the Cleveland game represented by far Collins most run with the main defense units.  My (very) untrained eyes saw an athletic guy who had the speed to cover TE's and RB's in coverage but got lost a few times.  Also seemed to me like he was a pretty sure tackler -- guys he hit tended to go down.  And the deflected pass on his late rush was cause for encouragement too.
 
So I'm thinking there's something there after all, but I'm a dumb ass and willing to listen to whatever I'm told to think.
 

triniSox

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He seemed to misread the play-action to Cameron at the end of the game. Overall, I thought he had a pretty decent game based on watching it on TV. He seems to carry good momentum into his hits with generally good technique. Also, his length can be disruptive in passing lanes - I think we saw one example of that. I think when he becomes familiar enough with the scheme and so confident enough in reading his keys that it's instinctive, he'll be a force. As a pure, traditional DE, he looks way too light to shed blocks.
 
I have visions of him blitzing through the A gap with Chandler Jones running a stunt and Nink crashing in from the outside to strip-sack Manning in a big playoff spot.
 
Regarding the whole "injury-prone" label, I would argue that the opposite is true. Playing in the NFL makes you injury-prone, because the NFL is one massive injury factory. Players are constantly taken out of commission, and the superhuman "injury-resistant" players are the rare ones.
 
A quick google search doesn't reveal any sort of studies on injury rates, so for a quick-and-dirty analysis I looked at the 2012 AFC Injury Report data at Foootball-Reference (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/crd/2012_injuries.htm). Assuming each team has a 53-man roster (I know, rosters change over the season, but just to keep things simple), each team has 53x16=848 player-games per season. On average, how many of those player-games are missed by each team? I looked at the # of IR/PUP/"Out"/"Doubtful" occurrences, and added 50% of the "Questionable" occurrences, and here is the resulting "games lost to injury" list by team for 2012:
 
New England: 346/41%
Miami: 94/11%
New York: 135/16%
Buffalo: 209/25%
Baltimore: 293/35%
Cincinnati: 255/30%
Pittsburgh: 142/17%
Cleveland: 199/23%
Houston: 207/24%
Indianapolis: 294/35%
Tenessee: 236/28%
Jacksonville: 295/35%
Denver: 180/21%
San Diego: 164/19%
Oakland: 241/28%
Kansas City: 200/24%
 
This is all very back-of-the-envelope, and it does exaggerate the games lost (due to players on IR not being on the 53-man roster), but we're still looking at the average team losing 25% of their opening-day roster. That's the equivalent of each player on the team being unavailable for 4 games each season, or losing 13 players for the entire season. Most of these lost players will be JAGs and roster filler, but on average we're looking at each NFL player having a 3-in-4 chance that they'll make it through a given season healthy. 
 
(edit: ugh, this should be in the Gronk thread. Could a Mod please move it over there?)
 

Valek123

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I'm starting to get tremendously excited about Collins, Hightower and Mayo in the same linebacking core next year.  Collins has been superb the last few weeks to my eyes, almost had a int yesterday jumping a route.  It's been a great season for a "step backwards" season and to overcome the injuries has required big steps by young players and Collins has been very exciting.  He and Hightower seem to be turning the corner, just fun to watch them develop.
 

triniSox

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I keep wondering if we're still going to try to keep Spikes. He definitely marches to the beat of his own drum and is limited in pass coverage. But I wonder if BB thinks like Parcells: "I like linebackers. I collect 'em. You can't have too many good ones." Collins definitely looks like he could be a special player if he learns the ins-and-outs of the defense and reacts instinctively.
 

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Bruschi was a bit less bullish on Collins' performance against the Ravens on ESPN.com:

Tony (Saugus)

Tedy,How do you feel about the development of Jamie Collins, I would like to see him rush the passer more

Tedy (12:02 PM)

I would like to see him get more comfortable playing linebacker first. For Jamie Collins to rush the passer, it would mean less rushes for Ninkovich or Jones -- their two best rushers. He's had his problems grasping the defensive schemes the last two weeks. This is clearly still a rookie figuring out what to do.



http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/boston/chat/_/id/49710
 

lostjumper

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Going back and reading some of the scouting reports at the beginning of this thread, the negatives were about his slight build and how he would get pushed around at the NFL level. Was going to be a project who needed to take a year or 2 to bulk up. Of course, no one was thinking about him dropping back 25 yards in coverage and picking off passes...
 

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brandonchristensen said:
Amazing game. He's just good enough to get a season ending injury.
Stop talking, it doesn't become you  :colbert:
 
Shouldn't you be photoshopping something anyway?
 

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LogansDad said:
Stop talking, it doesn't become you  :colbert:
 
Shouldn't you be photoshopping something anyway?
 
:(
 
I was scanning the AP website for shots to use...I have ideas, I just...I need source material to use.
 

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This thread is awesome in that it spans the spectrum of a player's development.  At the beginning, when the player is first brought onboard, it is very bullish.  Then, when the young guy struggles out of the gate, folks lament his acquisition and sort of give up on him.  But, in a dramatic twist, said player figures it out and makes a huge impact.
 
Collins is a beast and is going to make some people think twice about fading this team because of all the injuries to their defense.
 

lambeau

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Performance last night rated 7.4 by PFF--only Justin Houston (twice) and Von Miller had single game ratings that high this year.
 
Collins and Hightower rated 2.8 and 2.9 in coverage--it doesn't get much better, and that bodes well for the next game.
 

Tony C

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trading down out of the 1st round sure as hell is looking good -- also netted them Ryan in the 3rd and Boyce in the 4th, right?
 

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EJPats said:
This is what BB had to say about Collins last night. Rarely does he heap this much praise on a player.

"He's a very versatile athlete that's smart, works hard, really has a great team attitude. I love having him on our team. He brings a lot. He's got good stamina and he's very athletic and tough."

Edit: Quote from piece by Mike Reiss
http://m.espn.go.com/general/story?storyId=10281871&city=boston&src=desktop
 
I don't think that even goes far enough in explaining the praise Belichick had for Collins last night. Specifically, whenever a reporter tried to suggest this was a special or a breakout game, Belichick's answer was that Collins has been great all year, at one point even suggesting they rewatch the tape of the other games. And he did it across several questions.
 
That's about the highest praise Belichick gives to a player in press conferences. (I'm bracketing what he said about Brady in the Bill Cowher interview as a different animal, though if he said that at a press conference it would certainly recalibrate the Praise Scale.)
 

soxfan121

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lambeau said:
Performance last night rated 7.4 by PFF--only Justin Houston (twice) and Von Miller had single game ratings that high this year.
 
Collins and Hightower rated 2.8 and 2.9 in coverage--it doesn't get much better, and that bodes well for the next game.
<-------------------Read in this voice---------------------------
 
"Last week doesn't matter. Last week was last week. This week is a different game and last week won't matter at all when the ball is snapped."
 

Phragle

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Yesterday he had 9 pass rushes with 1 sack, 2 hurries, and 2 hits. That's a PRP of 44.4.
 
Robert Mathis had a 11.1 PRP this season.
 

SpacemanzGerbil

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I thought the guy was a bust for sure by the middle of the season. How rare is it for a player to suddenly start seeing the field so late and then go on to start impacting playoff games?
 
If last night is at all indicative of what he is going to be, holy shit. 
 

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Tony C said:
trading down out of the 1st round sure as hell is looking good -- also netted them Ryan in the 3rd and Boyce in the 4th, right?
 
Yeah, I don't think those Coradelle Patterson people are saying much anymore. The actual value they got for that pick is off the charts, especially when you factor in Blount.
 
Also, I had forgotten until it was mentioned last night, but this is a guy who played safety in college? Given his size, it's remarkable. A freakish athlete and physical specimen for sure.
 

Phragle

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Ed Hillel said:
 
Yeah, I don't think those Coradelle Patterson people are saying much anymore. The actual value they got for that pick is off the charts, especially when you factor in Blount.
 
Also, I had forgotten until it was mentioned last night, but this is a guy who played safety in college? Given his size, it's remarkable. A freakish athlete and physical specimen for sure.
 
When he played safety he was only 210 pounds.
 

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SpacemanzGerbil said:
I thought the guy was a bust for sure by the middle of the season. How rare is it for a player to suddenly start seeing the field so late and then go on to start impacting playoff games?
 
If last night is at all indicative of what he is going to be, holy shit.
You thought a draft pick that was universally seen as a bit of a project was a sure bust after a half of a season?

The rest of your post doesn't deserve an answer after that.