Patriots/NFL Injury Thread

Phragle

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Super Nomario said:
Rob Ninkovich, too, who started at 4-3 OLB in 2011 and even played there last year when Hightower was hurt. And in today's NFL, you don't even need a 3rd LB most of the time.
Nink finished with a nasty little run as a pass rusher, and they've tried to play as much 4 man fronts as possible since then.  I think they wanted him as a pass rusher after that rather than a LB.
 
Super Nomario said:
"Better" is debatable. Spikes was clearly more accomplished at the same stage in their careers. I guess maybe drafting Vereen in the first place when they already had Woodhead was a pretty good analogy. Vereen stepped in this year and has done well but he basically didn't play his first two seasons.
Better as far as talent?  I don't think that's very debatable.  Regardless I don't want to debate the analogy.  It doesn't really matter.
 
Super Nomario said:
But this goes back to the "how are they going to use him?" question. If he's ultimately going to be a 4-3 MLB, a 3-4 ILB, or a 4-3 OLB, how many reps is he going to get blitzing? In general Belichick defenses haven't been huge blitzing Ds. The ceiling on ILBs or 4-3 OLBs blitzing is about 33% league-wide, leaving aside Von Miller. Hightower's blitzed on about  20% of passing downs for his career; did you expect that to be significantly higher? I wouldn't, personally. Unless he's a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 DE, he's going to be dropping into coverage 60-90% of the time. If he sucks at that, he's got to be an awesome blitzer to make up for it.
 
Depends what you think is significantly higher.  Is 5% significantly higher?  I could conservatively see a 25% blitz percentage.  That would put him on par with Daryl Washington and Brian Cushing - two players I've compared to The Good Hightower™.
 
Washington
2011: 23.9%
2012: 26.7%
2013: 25.7%
 
Cushing


2011: 35.1%
2012: 25.7%
2013: 28.1%
 
You have to put players a position to succeed, and the one thing he's been always been able to do is blitz.  His 17% PRP is near the top for both inside and outside linebackers since he came to the NFL.  I'd call him an awesome blitzer. 
 
In coverage I wouldn't say he sucks, he's certainly not good though.  In zone he's maybe average, but probably a little below it.  The main problem is again his man coverage.  It's so awful that it that it ruins all of his coverage numbers.  What is messing with him physically is one thing, but until that is fixed his man coverage assignments can and have to be schemed around.
 

Super Nomario

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phragle said:
Nink finished with a nasty little run as a pass rusher, and they've tried to play as much 4 man fronts as possible since then.  I think they wanted him as a pass rusher after that rather than a LB.
I think it's a fascinating question why the Pats have played the fronts they've played over the past couple seasons, but as far as it related to Hightower's fit: he's going to get to blitz more in 3-man fronts (where he can rush without it even technically being a blitz) vs 4-man fronts. So if they were planning to play mostly 4-man fronts when they drafted Hightower, it's another example of him not being a piece that didn't totally fit the puzzle.
 
phragle said:
Depends what you think is significantly higher.  Is 5% significantly higher?  I could conservatively see a 25% blitz percentage.  That would put him on par with Daryl Washington and Brian Cushing - two players I've compared to The Good Hightower™.
 
You have to put players a position to succeed, and the one thing he's been always been able to do is blitz.  His 17% PRP is near the top for both inside and outside linebackers since he came to the NFL.  I'd call him an awesome blitzer. 
Just in terms of math, if we assume 35-36 passing snaps a game, that's going from about 7 rushes to about 9. At that PRP, that's something good happening every three games or so. I don't think that would be enough to change my evaluation of Hightower. At 25%, he's still dropping into coverage 3 times as much as he's rushing.
 
phragle said:
In coverage I wouldn't say he sucks, he's certainly not good though.  In zone he's maybe average, but probably a little below it.  The main problem is again his man coverage.  It's so awful that it that it ruins all of his coverage numbers.  What is messing with him physically is one thing, but until that is fixed his man coverage assignments can and have to be schemed around.
I think they've tried to scheme around his man coverage limitations - he played a lot of zone Sunday and only a couple times had to cover the TE in man coverage - but there's a limit. If you're playing two deep safeties, as the Pats were against Denver, your LBs have to cover. And Hightower can't cover anybody - not TEs, not slot WRs, not RBs. And again, this is a point where Hightower and Spikes are redundant, because Spikes has the same limitations. You really can't play both of them in nickel.
 

Phragle

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Super Nomario said:
I think it's a fascinating question why the Pats have played the fronts they've played over the past couple seasons, but as far as it related to Hightower's fit: he's going to get to blitz more in 3-man fronts (where he can rush without it even technically being a blitz) vs 4-man fronts. So if they were planning to play mostly 4-man fronts when they drafted Hightower, it's another example of him not being a piece that didn't totally fit the puzzle.
 
True but the 4-3 defense they've been running recently has a lot of the same qualities that make the 3-4 defense successful. It's not the vanilla 4-3 schemes of the past couple seasons. Ninkovich and Jones are dropping into coverage more than they ever have together, much like 3-4 OLBs. The current defense appears to be built around (one of) the nickel versions of the 3-4 - the 2-4. The base uses an extra LB making it like a 2-5 instead of a big NT in the 3-4. I think this is the defense BB has wanted to run for a long time, but injuries and young players have delayed it. If they run this defense it makes Hightower a better fit and frees up even more blitzes, and like you said "rush without it even technically being a blitz" opportunities for him.
 
Coverage Snap Percentage: Chandler Jones
  • 2012:  1.65%
  • 2013:  2.89%
but in 2013
  • Weeks 1-7:  0.59%
  • Weeks 8-13:  6.21%
6.21% is a number on par with 3-4 ROLBs.
 
Coverage Snap Percentage: Rob Ninkovich
  • 2012:  5.28%
  • 2013:  8.78%
but in 2013
  • Weeks 1-7:  6.11%
  • Weeks 8-13:  12.96%
12.96% is a number on par with 3-4 LOLBs.
 
Super Nomario said:
Just in terms of math, if we assume 35-36 passing snaps a game, that's going from about 7 rushes to about 9. At that PRP, that's something good happening every three games or so. I don't think that would be enough to change my evaluation of Hightower. At 25%, he's still dropping into coverage 3 times as much as he's rushing.

I think they've tried to scheme around his man coverage limitations - he played a lot of zone Sunday and only a couple times had to cover the TE in man coverage - but there's a limit. If you're playing two deep safeties, as the Pats were against Denver, your LBs have to cover. And Hightower can't cover anybody - not TEs, not slot WRs, not RBs. And again, this is a point where Hightower and Spikes are redundant, because Spikes has the same limitations. You really can't play both of them in nickel.
 
I don't know why I'm suddenly defending Hightower. My main point is that a good go-forward LB can be valuable even in the current passing environment. Derrick Johnson, Daryl Washington, D'Qwell Jackson, and others provide value. The problem is Hightower isn't good.
 

Super Nomario

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phragle said:
 
True but the 4-3 defense they've been running recently has a lot of the same qualities that make the 3-4 defense successful. It's not the vanilla 4-3 schemes of the past couple seasons. Ninkovich and Jones are dropping into coverage more than the ever have together, much like 3-4 OLBs. The current defense appears to be built around (one of) the nickel versions of the 3-4 - the 2-4. The base uses an extra LB making is a 2-5 instead of a big NT of the 3-4. I think this is the defense BB has wanted to run for a long time, but injuries and young players have delayed it. If they run this defense it makes Hightower a better fit and frees up even more blitzes, and like you said "rush without it even technically being a blitz" opportunities for him.
 
Yeah, I think the base D has been a 3-4 for a few weeks. I'm not clear on whether that was the plan all along as you opine here, or whether it's a reaction to the injuries to Wilfork, Mayo, and Kelly. The 3-4 / 2-4 seems a better fit for Hightower, Spikes, and Ninkovich (and Collins, I guess), but they don't really have the DT talent to pull it off. Then again, they don't really have the DT talent to pull off any defensive front right now.
 
EDIT: and to expand the discussion, they're running a couple different variations of both the base and the nickel:
"Heavy" base 3-4 with Chris Jones and Vellano at DE and Sopoaga / Siliga at NT; LBs Chandler Jones, Hightower, Spikes, Ninkovich
Lighter 3-4 with a Chandler Jones at one DE spot, Chris Jones and Vellano at the NT / other DE spot; LBs Collins, Hightower, Spikes, Ninkovich
Normal sub 4-2 with Chandler Jones and Ninkovich at DE (either or both might stand up for more of a 3-3 or 2-4 look), Chris Jones and Vellano at the DT spots; LBs Spikes and Hightower (or possibly Fletcher replacing one of them)
Rush-heavy sub 4-2 with Carter and Ninkovich at DE (again, Nink might be more LB-y), and Joneses Chandler and Chris at DT; same LBs as other 4-2
4-1 dime with either of the above four-man fronts, and Hightower or Fletcher paired with Logan Ryan (or Ebner) in a LB-like role
 
Would they be running more variations or fewer if everyone was healthy? I have no idea.
 

Tony C

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for a guy who was injured all year, Leon Washington sure did look good on that kick return for the Titans.
 
Not like the Pats have needed a kick returner.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Tony C said:
for a guy who was injured all year, Leon Washington sure did look good on that kick return for the Titans.
 
Not like the Pats have needed a kick returner.
 
He played well last game as well. Have no idea what went on with the Pats & Washington.
 

Reverend

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Yeah, good idea.
 
Let's talk about Washington.
 

lambeau

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Interesting changes yesterday:

Siliga and Collins got 70% snaps starting in what looked like a 4-3 base defense.

Dennard not 100%, accounting for Logan Ryan starting?

With Gronk/AP out, Shady NcCoy jumps to non-QB MVP?
 

Stitch01

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tims4wins said:
Did Dennard return yesterday after he got hurt in the first half?
Reiss said he did by mid 2nd quarter.  Wasnt playing full time though, Ryan was playing corner in the base defense. 
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I'm hoping he was hurt during the Browns game, because I thought he looked like dogshit for a good portion of the afternoon.
 

soxfan121

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Is Dobson still in the walking boot? Is he going to return before the playoffs start?
 

Ed Hillel

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That makes sense, as KFP noted that did not look like Solder playing LT Sunday. Pats may get a call from the league, though I wouldn't be surprised if Solder hid the injury.
 

Morning Woodhead

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I remember in the 2nd or 3rd quarter he took a helmet to helmet hit. He seemed stunned for a second and was the last one to the huddle. I watched him the next play expecting Brady to get blind sided but he seemed fine. He finished the game so I hope that's a good sign for this week.
 

Super Nomario

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Per Yates, Boyce may have had an injury:
Wide receiver Josh Boyce: Gronkowski wasn’t the only critical skill player who was out, as rookie wide receivers Aaron Dobson (foot) and Kenbrell Thompkins (hip) also missed the game. Boyce was thrust into a larger offensive role, catching four passes for 42 yards. He also had critical drops during the game. He was spotted after the game walking gingerly with no shoe on his right foot. 
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4755370/filling-in-for-gronk-how-the-pats-did-it
 

soxfan121

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Bill does not think the rise in the number of injuries is "randomness" and thinks the changes to OTAs/workouts/practice rules might be large factor: 
 
“I’m in favor of total preparation for the players for the season,” Belichick said, via the Associated Press. “And I think that’s been changed significantly and, I would say, not necessarily for the better, when you look at the injury numbers.”
 
“You have a gap between preparation and competition level,” the coach concluded. “And I think that’s where you see a lot of injuries occurring. We get a lot of breakdowns. We get a lot of situations that players just aren’t as prepared as they were in previous years, in my experience anyway.”
 
In fact, injuries have increased, they’ve done so rather significantly, and they’ve done so since the signing of the new CBA. Per STATS, Inc., an average of 239 players finished the season on injured reserve from 2000 through 2006, and that average has increased to over 300 since.
 
“When you see the number as high as they are, then I don’t think that’s a randomness that’s been two years in a row,” Belichick said. “I’ve got to think there’s some correlation there.”
 
 

TomTerrific

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Any further word in Dobson? I'd really like to see him available for the division round game.

Last I saw he ran a deep route against the Ravens, and then limped off the field and wasn't seen again.
 

Stitch01

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Yeah, he's not going to make it.  Given the boot I wouldnt really be counting on him if there is a next week either.
 

MainerInExile

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Stitch01 said:
Yeah, he's not going to make it.  Given the boot I wouldnt really be counting on him if there is a next week either.
Given that they put Boyce on IR and not Dobson, though, one would assume they think he is coming back at some point during the playoffs.
 

NortheasternPJ

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Vince was on Showtime's NFL show I believe last night and said that his rehab is going well and he's going to be back 100%
 

baruch20

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NortheasternPJ said:
Vince was on Showtime's NFL show I believe last night and said that his rehab is going well and he's going to be back 100%
 
That's good news, and I hope it is actually true.  What's he going to say though? 
 
"Rehab is going ok, but honestly I'm not sure I'm ever going to be 100%.  Im on the wrong side of 30 and a I'll be a large man playing on a reconstructed knee reconstructed leg.   It will be like a ticking time bomb out there!  Also, I am probably going to have to take a pay cut to stay on this team.  Wheeeee!!"
 
 
edit:  doh!  sorry I guess I see torn ACL-MCL's in my sleep now.  point stands, tho . . .
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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baruch20 said:
 
That's good news, and I hope it is actually true.  What's he going to say though? 
 
"Rehab is going ok, but honestly I'm not sure I'm ever going to be 100%.  Im on the wrong side of 30 and a I'll be a large man playing on a reconstructed knee. 
It will be like a ticking time bomb out there!  Also, I am probably going to have to take a pay cut to stay on this team.  Wheeeee!!"
 
Well, then he'd certainly be lying.
 

NortheasternPJ

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baruch20 said:
 
That's good news, and I hope it is actually true.  What's he going to say though? 
 
"Rehab is going ok, but honestly I'm not sure I'm ever going to be 100%.  Im on the wrong side of 30 and a I'll be a large man playing on a reconstructed knee. 
It will be like a ticking time bomb out there!  Also, I am probably going to have to take a pay cut to stay on this team.  Wheeeee!!"
He basically said half the guys who have his specific injury don't make it back and he thought his career was over but that's definitely not the case with him.
 

Stitch01

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MainerInExile said:
Given that they put Boyce on IR and not Dobson, though, one would assume they think he is coming back at some point during the playoffs.
I assume they think he has a chance, but I dont think the chance has to be very high not to IR him at this point.  Even if they thought we was 80% likely to be done for the season, what benefit would IRng him this week bring?
 

Ed Hillel

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Vince was on Showtime's NFL show I believe last night and said that his rehab is going well and he's going to be back 100%


It's going to be very sad and awkward next year if Vince refuses to take a pay cut and gets cut. I think it's fairly likely he won't be back on his current deal.
 

mpx42

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I think an extension for a couple years that guarantees him some money but massively lowers his cap hit for next year is one possible scenario.
 

Super Nomario

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Just for yucks, here's a list of players who were active for every game this season and were never listed on the practice injury report:
QB Ryan Mallett
RB LeGarrette Blount
FB James Develin
DT Joe Vellano
DE Chandler Jones
CB Logan Ryan
K Stephen Gostkowski
P Ryan Allen
LS Danny Aiken
 
Close but no cigar:
G Chris Barker - never on the injury report but inactive most of the year
TE Matt Mulligan - never on the injury report but not on the roster week 1
DT Chris Jones - never on the injury report but not on the roster week 1, inactive twice
DE Jake Bequette - never on the injury report but inactive most of the year
DE Michael Buchanan - missed one practice for non-injury reasons, inactive once
LB Steve Beauharnais - never on the injury report but inactive most of the year
LB Jamie Collins - missed one practice for non-injury reasons
 

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Super Nomario said:
Just for yucks, here's a list of players who were active for every game this season and were never listed on the practice injury report:
QB Ryan Mallett
RB LeGarrette Blount
FB James Develin
DT Joe Vellano
DE Chandler Jones
CB Logan Ryan
K Stephen Gostkowski
P Ryan Allen
LS Danny Aiken
 
Close but no cigar:
G Chris Barker - never on the injury report but inactive most of the year
TE Matt Mulligan - never on the injury report but not on the roster week 1
DT Chris Jones - never on the injury report but not on the roster week 1, inactive twice
DE Jake Bequette - never on the injury report but inactive most of the year
DE Michael Buchanan - missed one practice for non-injury reasons, inactive once
LB Steve Beauharnais - never on the injury report but inactive most of the year
LB Jamie Collins - missed one practice for non-injury reasons
Chandler Jones is truly impressive as he not only plays a lineman position, but he played almost every snap all year, and played with an extremely high motor on every play that I paid him any attention.  A real standout.
 

SunkToANewLowell

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Spikes is hurt but Mort reports it wasnt serious enough for IR. He was late for a meeting last week & this was deemed the last straw. Instead of releasing him so he could play for other teams tthey agreed on the IR designation.
 
 
Field Yates ‏@FieldYates 57s
Via @mortreport: LB Brandon Spikes was placed on IR in part because of showing up late to team meeting during bye week. Also has knee issue.
 

Van Everyman

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Any word on Ryan Allen? I was psyched Ghost and Brady were able to step up but am a little anxious about this kind of thing biting them in the ass in the AFCCG.

Reiss suggests Shawn Powell or Robert Malone. Any chance the team would go with someone like Chris Kluwe?
 

Byrdbrain

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Van Everyman said:
Any word on Ryan Allen? I was psyched Ghost and Brady were able to step up but am a little anxious about this kind of thing biting them in the ass in the AFCCG.

Reiss suggests Shawn Powell or Robert Malone. Any chance the team would go with someone like Chris Kluwe?
Was just coming in this thread to ask if Chris Kluwe wished he waited a few weeks to write his article?
I know BB hasn't shied away from "lightning rod" type players but I have to imagine Kluwe is poison at this point.
 

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Byrdbrain said:
Was just coming in this thread to ask if Chris Kluwe wished he waited a few weeks to write his article?
I know BB hasn't shied away from "lightning rod" type players but I have to imagine Kluwe is poison at this point.
 
The team worked Malone and Powell out in early November, well before Kluwe's article but while he was a free agent.  I would imagine they would have worked him out at that time if they were interested in him.
 
I'm still a little confused what's wrong with Allen, but I would expect him to go on IR sooner rather than later if there's any question about his availability for Sunday.
 

axx

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dynomite said:
I'm still a little confused what's wrong with Allen, but I would expect him to go on IR sooner rather than later if there's any question about his availability for Sunday.
 
Yeah, you wouldn't think a separated shoulder would prevent him from punting.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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The way he was holding it, I was thinking broken collar bone, but I saw dinner tweets that indicate him going for an MRI. For a broken bone, I'd think that an x-ray would be enough to confirm, so now I have no idea.