Patriots/NFL Injury Thread

DaveRoberts'Shoes

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So, since the Gronk thread has devolved into something that Gronk himself might write if he were capable of such higher-level activity, and since Pats seem to be going down at an alarming rate the past few weeks, I figured it might be a good idea to start a catch-all injury thread for the Pats and the NFL in general, if people want to expand it.  Obviously, most of this is going to be brazen speculation on my part because I don't have much inside info on the Pats (Slater's wrist as on obvious exception, pats self on back...), but I will do my best to try to add some insight into what I think their injuries are and their timelines.  Basically I have some time to kill waiting for my next OR case to go...
 
So, from this weekend -
 
Amendola - He's dead.  Next.
 
Seriously, that looked BAD in real time, and his stagger to the locker room was tough to watch.  Who the hell knows when or if he will be this season - the thing with concussions is that they are so idiosyncratic that a glancing blow to the head can cause symptoms that last for months, while an apparent kill shot can sometimes go back to baseline in a week.  I would assume he's out this week and probably longer, but it all depends on how his brain bounces back, and there's literally no way to predict that.
 
Connolly - Didn't see it, but he has a history of concussions, so that's very concerning moving forward.
 
Mayo - "Shoulder", left in a sling - I'm hoping he has a bad AC joint sprain that they can rest for a couple of weeks and then inject pre-game for a while, but that's probably the best case scenario.  A grade five AC separation would need surgery, but those are pretty unusual.  I doubt he dislocated his shoulder, as I didn't see them do anything that looked like an on-field reduction, but he could have subluxed it, Ellsbury-style, which could obviously keep him out for a while. 
 
Talib - I'm hearing it's his hip flexor, which should get better but may necessitate some rest.  He tried to go back in and that obviously failed, so he's clearly hurting.  I'd anticipate him being out a week or two depending on how he responds to treatment. 
 
That's what I can think of off the top of my head.  Anything I missed?  Feel free to include stuff about other teams -  I am all-Boston all the time right now and I can't cloud my simple orthopedic brain with other team's problems.
 

DaveRoberts'Shoes

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Stitch01 said:
Any thoughts on Tommy Kelly?
I think he's hilarious, for one. His interviews are good stuff.

I think he probably has an MCL sprain, given that he hurt it and went back out briefly before having to come back out. If that's the case, probably 1-3 more weeks.
 

triniSox

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Thanks DRS. Is there anything we can tell from the amount of pain Mayo seemed to be in? For example, would a grade 5 AC separation result in a huge amount of demonstrable pain? Mayo seemed to be wincing a lot but not screaming? </GraspingAtStraws>
 

JohnnyK

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Does Amendola have any history regarding concussions? My Google search turned up nothing, so that is at least some good news, right?

OTOH, Talib's history of hip issues (2010, 2012) makes his situation a little scarier I guess.

Given the next 3 games are @ Jets, vs. MIA and vs. PIT before the bye in week 10, do you expect any of these guys to play? Or do they basically get 5 weeks to heal unless it really is a very minor issue?
 

Harry Hooper

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As I posted in the game thread, there's a decent chance Connolly's career is over. The (degraded) OL's declining play in the second half yesterday is quite worrisome going forward this season.
 

dcmissle

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M*A*S*H ... good Christ, and in a year the defense really happens to be coming along.
 
I'm at this point with Amendola -- if he could give us one good year like Lackey, just one -- I'd take it and run like a bandit.  Injury prone, merely unlucky, unskilled in guarding himself, it does not much matter.  He may be cooked. 
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Harry Hooper said:
As I posted in the game thread, there's a decent chance Connolly's career is over. The (degraded) OL's declining play in the second half yesterday is quite worrisome going forward this season.
 
We'll see.  He definitely had a concussion in 2010.  Last year he came out of the Titans game with a "head injury" and missed the next game, but reports said that he actually passed concussion tests.  Its a worrisome but not extreme history.  I wouldn't be surprised if he's back in a couple weeks.
 

radsoxfan

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On the bright side (if there is one), maybe a few weeks off for Amendola to clear his head will also help him recover more fully from the groin injury. I don't think he has looked as elusive since his return.
 
If Collie can avoid another concussion for a few weeks, I suppose I'm OK with him as the Amendola replacement for now.
 
We just need to keep Amendola, Edelman, and Collie off-cycle in their injury pattern....
 

RedOctober3829

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Cornerback Aqib Talib was walking just fine during an appearance in the locker room today, roughly 21 hours after injuring his hip against the Saints.
Talib declined a request to be interviewed but said he'd talk to the media Wednesday, for what it's worth. Talib usually walks with a strut, so it didn't appear that he was limping.
Jerod Mayo did not emerge in the locker room when the linebackers got out of a meeting, but that doesn't mean a whole lot. If he attended the meeting, he could have departed through a side door. He left the stadium with his right arm in a sling last night after injuring his shoulder.
Wide receiver Danny Amendola and right guard Dan Connolly were not present in the locker room. Each suffered a concussion yesterday.

http://bostonherald.com/sports/patriots_nfl/the_blitz/2013/10/aqib_talib_strolls_through_locker_room_like_his_old_self#sthash.biSa0fVG.dpuf
 

Stitch01

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dcmissle said:
M*A*S*H ... good Christ, and in a year the defense really happens to be coming along.
 
I'm at this point with Amendola -- if he could give us one good year like Lackey, just one -- I'd take it and run like a bandit.  Injury prone, merely unlucky, unskilled in guarding himself, it does not much matter.  He may be cooked. 
 
I dont think there's much to say he's cooked at this point.  Whether he can stay healthy for most or all of a season is still a very open question, and the plan for '14 should not include Amendola playing 16 games, but I dont think he's shown many signs of diminshed skills yet.   Head injuries can be scary and unpredictable, so hopefully yesterday didnt change that.
 
I still wouldnt take one good season and run at this point, but worse outcomes are certaintly in the band of realistic outcomes.
 

MJM2344

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Did you see the Randall Cobb play? Any ideas, assuming they haven't announced anything yet? 
 
 

DaveRoberts'Shoes

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triniSox said:
Thanks DRS. Is there anything we can tell from the amount of pain Mayo seemed to be in? For example, would a grade 5 AC separation result in a huge amount of demonstrable pain? Mayo seemed to be wincing a lot but not screaming? </GraspingAtStraws>
I wouldn't infer too much from that - the degree of injury is not necessarily linear to the amount of pain caused by that injury. Plus, I'm sure Mayo is a pretty tough guy - he plays linebacker in the NFL, I'm sure he can handle a fair amount of pain.

On a semi-related note, if anyone tells you, "I have a high threshold for pain", they most assuredly do NOT.
 

dbn

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Other than T.E.P. Brady, Jr., the two players that I would most hate to have unavailable are Talib and Mayo (even more than Wilfork).  Please be well Aqib and Jerod.
 

fiskful of dollars

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The high pain tolerance disclaimer is right up there with "my baseline temperature is 97 so my 98.6 temp is really a fever for me". Unrelated, I know, but still illuminating I hope.
I am an ER doc, not an orthopod like DRS, so I am federally prohibited from collecting $10 from any of you.
 
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fiskful of dollars said:
Your top 4 receiving threats out for a significant time (3 for inury)
One of your top linemen might gone for good
Top DL, stalwart of the entire defense and locker room, done for the season
Top LB and D QB, possibly done for season
Top ST player out significantly.
Top CB may miss some time
Your other DT also hurt
 
Arguably 6 of your top 8, and arguably 8 of 12 and 9 of your top 15 most important players injured significantly.
 
Brutal
 

triniSox

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Bedard is in the crowd that believes the injuries are going to doom the Patriots in the playoffs: http://mmqb.si.com/2013/10/18/jerod-mayo-patriots-weekend-notes/
 
I disagree with him. Baltimore last year was a good example of a team that lost key players to injuries and then won. I think the the playoffs are somewhat hard to predict well in advance. If the Patriots get to the playoffs (likely) and have a bye (maybe), I think they'd have a very good chance. The offense may be clicking then and if the defense continues to play at current level or even a little worse than current level, I think they have a very good shot. Everyone will be touting Denver at the moment but as Belichick would remind, it's not even Thanksgiving yet.
 

dbn

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triniSox said:
Bedard is in the crowd that believes the injuries are going to doom the Patriots in the playoffs: http://mmqb.si.com/2013/10/18/jerod-mayo-patriots-weekend-notes/
 
I disagree with him. Baltimore last year was a good example of a team that lost key players to injuries and then won. I think the the playoffs are somewhat hard to predict well in advance. If the Patriots get to the playoffs (likely) and have a bye (maybe), I think they'd have a very good chance. The offense may be clicking then and if the defense continues to play at current level or even a little worse than current level, I think they have a very good shot. Everyone will be touting Denver at the moment but as Belichick would remind, it's not even Thanksgiving yet.
 
Exactly.  
 
Injury issues aside, it's good to keep in mind that the NFL isn't the NBA where teams get 7 games per matchup and you can be pretty sure the Heat are going to win the championship.  The team that is considered by the public to be "the best" - even at the end of the regular season - usually does not win the Superbowl.  According to the week 18 ESPN power rankings (I know...) the only teams in the top two to win it all from the 2002-2012 regular seasons (as far back as they have on their website) were NE in '03 and NE in '04.  Here are the Superbowl winners with their week 18 ESPN power ranking back to 2002 (top ranked teams in each conference in ()):
 
2012 BAL 10 (DEN 1, ATL 2)
2011 NYG 9 (GB 1, NE 4)
2010 GB 9 (NE 1, ATL 2)
2009 NO 5 (IND 1, MIN 3)
2008 PGH 3 (TEN 1, NYG 2)
2007 NYG 9 (NE 1, DAL 2)
2006 IND 4 (SD 1, CHI 5)
2005 PGH 6 (IND 1, SEA 2)
2004 NE 2 (PGH 1, PHI 3)
2003 NE 1 (PHI 2)
2002 TB 3 (PHI 1, OAK 2)
 

SeoulSoxFan

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triniSox said:
Bedard is in the crowd that believes the injuries are going to doom the Patriots in the playoffs: http://mmqb.si.com/2013/10/18/jerod-mayo-patriots-weekend-notes/
 
Count Barnwell as well. He has mentioned Patriots losing Mayo and others as a major reason to be doubtful of playoff success. I also think he's absolutely wrong in saying "Patriots and Jets are closer in talent level than many people realize" (http://www.grantland.com/podcasts - skip to 38:40). 
 

dbn

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I know I'm getting off topic, but I just looked up the number of Superbowl winners by playoff seed over the last 11 seasons:
 
1st: 2
2nd: 2
3rd: 1
4th: 2
5th: 1
6th: 3
 
It gets quite a bit more top-heavy the further you go back into the 90s, but lately there has been no correlation at all between the SB winner and their seed.  Not what this means (nothing, I suspect) but it's kind of interesting.
 

MarcSullivaFan

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triniSox said:
Bedard is in the crowd that believes the injuries are going to doom the Patriots in the playoffs: http://mmqb.si.com/2013/10/18/jerod-mayo-patriots-weekend-notes/
 
I disagree with him. Baltimore last year was a good example of a team that lost key players to injuries and then won. I think the the playoffs are somewhat hard to predict well in advance. If the Patriots get to the playoffs (likely) and have a bye (maybe), I think they'd have a very good chance. The offense may be clicking then and if the defense continues to play at current level or even a little worse than current level, I think they have a very good shot. Everyone will be touting Denver at the moment but as Belichick would remind, it's not even Thanksgiving yet.
Also, the Packers had something like 15 guys on IR when they won in 2010/11, including their starting RB, TE, MLB, a couple O-linemen, and two rotational OLBs.
 

epraz

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dbn said:
I know I'm getting off topic, but I just looked up the number of Superbowl winners by playoff seed over the last 11 seasons:
 
1st: 2
2nd: 2
3rd: 1
4th: 2
5th: 1
6th: 3
 
It gets quite a bit more top-heavy the further you go back into the 90s, but lately there has been no correlation at all between the SB winner and their seed.  Not what this means (nothing, I suspect) but it's kind of interesting.
 
It means that success over 3-4 games isn't particularly well correlated with success over the previous 16, particularly when you remove the worst 2/3 of the pool after the first 16.
 

triniSox

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epraz said:
 
It means that success over 3-4 games isn't particularly well correlated with success over the previous 16, particularly when you remove the worst 2/3 of the pool after the first 16.
Yep. I read a book called Soccernomics which was talking about parity in league soccer vs parity in American sports like football. One argument was that the NFL appears to have more parity because of randomization devices to mask that the best teams are by and large the same from year to year. One such randomization devices is a playoff system consisting of 3 to 4 one-off games. There was some data to back up the claim that the results were somewhat random. It was a phrase that has since stuck in my head - "randomization device".
 

dbn

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epraz said:
 
It means that success over 3-4 games isn't particularly well correlated with success over the previous 16, particularly when you remove the worst 2/3 of the pool after the first 16.
 
Right.  But that didn't necessarily have to have been true.  It could be that the top teams are so much better than the rest that they do usually win it all.  I don't follow soccer closely, but it seems that in the Spanish league it's all FC Barcelona or Real Madrid, and in the Premier League it's all Manchester United & Chelsea, etc.  My point is that a lot of people - perhaps driven by media's need to build story lines - think that teams A or B and perhaps C or D are sure to win the Superbowl (this year it's DEN or SEA, or maybe SF or NO) but looking back over the last decade, that evidently isn't the case.  
 

epraz

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dbn said:
 
Right.  But that didn't necessarily have to have been true.  It could be that the top teams are so much better than the rest that they do usually win it all.  I don't follow soccer closely, but it seems that in the Spanish league it's all FC Barcelona or Real Madrid, and in the Premier League it's all Manchester United & Chelsea, etc.  My point is that a lot of people - perhaps driven by media's need to build story lines - think that teams A or B and perhaps C or D are sure to win the Superbowl (this year it's DEN or SEA, or maybe SF or NO) but looking back over the last decade, that evidently isn't the case.  
 
I don't get how your last sentence follows from the rest of your post.  I pointed out that even when top teams are so much better than the rest (e.g. 2007 Pats), they can lose in a small sample.  I agree that there is this idea of playoff determinism in football (maybe more than other sports) and a lot of people believe that excellence in those 3-4 games are more indicative of team quality than excellence over a full season.
 

Reverend

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I think a big part of what we see occurs through an anchoring effect where power rankings continue to include inertia in how people feel about teams early in the season whereas the Super Bowl, due to the single eimination playoff system,  will be won by someone who is playing well later in the season.
 
Consider this thought experiment: a league full of identical teams, the only thing different is randomization of injuries. Say, one team has injuries early, but the guys return for the playoffs while another team is healthy in most of the regular season but then loses guys for the playoffs. The former team will likely be regarded as the lesser team, but be better in the playoffs.
 
I just realized that an instructive example of this phenomenon that I'm describing was the 2004 Patriots when the national press made such a big deal in the playoffs about the Steelers being one of only two teams to beat the Pats while ignoring the fact that the Patriots had like 47 players injured who had since returned for the playoff game in which the Patriots curb-stomped the Steeler (don't let the final score fool you) in what was probably the most confident I've ever felt heading into what was considered a "tough game" simply because I remembered who was out in the first match up and who was back.
 

seageral

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DRS any thoughts on why Gronkowski still has a giant brace on the arm?  It should be fully healed at this point right?
 

NortheasternPJ

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seageral said:
DRS any thoughts on why Gronkowski still has a giant brace on the arm?  It should be fully healed at this point right?
 
Not a doctor, but wouldn't it make sense to put the brace on it just as a precaution or to help him feel better mentally?
 

Stevie1der

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I haven't been vigilantly keeping up with the threads lately, so I may have missed this, but has there been any word on Armstead's progress? He was due to come off the PUP list after the Saints game, so I was curious if there were any indications that he would start practicing. Probably a long shot for meaningful contributions this season, but I'll take any good news health-wise I can on that side of the ball right now.
 

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weeba

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Josh Freeman out with a concussion:
 
Freeman believes he suffered his head injury on a hit in the third quarter Monday night against the New York Giants, Frazier said. Freeman didn't say anything about it during the game, the coach said.
 
 

lostjumper

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Well, freeman without a concussion plays about the same as Freeman with a concussion, so I give him a pass on the that. Starting Freeman in the first place however...
 

DaveRoberts'Shoes

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brandonchristensen said:
Any news on Seabass?
Something is very broken. If he has surgery tonight or tomorrow, it's his tibia. If they wait 1-2 weeks for swelling to go down, it's probably the ankle.