Os sign Nelson Cruz

Ed Hillel · Feb 23, 2014

This seems like a highly questionable signing to me, mostly because I disagree with your stance on the O's making the playoffs. I still think they're the fourth best team in the division by a decent margin, as I expect the Yankees to bounce back at anywhere from 90-95 wins. Why is a (potentially PEDless) year of Nelson Cruz worth a 2nd round pick in a year where their World Series odds are so low? I guess if the strategy is an all-in one, they may as well give up the 3rd and 4th rounders as well, but I really think it's only going to make it worse for them.

staz · Feb 23, 2014

Earl Weaver approves of this signing.

beezer · Feb 23, 2014

One thing to consider though is that if Cruz has a decent year this year, the Orioles can offer him a QO next offseason and possibly make this decision a 2nd round pick in 14 and $8M for a year of Cruz and a 1st round pick in 15. In that regard it seems like the move has less downside

BoSox Rule · Feb 23, 2014

I doubt Cruz gets the QO again. He'd probably accept it given his experience this year and it is only going to get higher every year.

Trlicek's Whip · Feb 23, 2014

Being 33 years old and post-PED may accelerate his actual decline but they could still get 20 HR's out of his bat in 2014. DH'ing him may help keep him on the field; he had quad/hammy issues and that was presumably with some prescribed anti-aging help.

cannonball 1729 · Feb 24, 2014

Just for some perspective, here's how Orioles' DH's hit last year:

.234/.289/.415.

That's bad for a shortstop. It's abysmal for a position where the only job requirement is to hit.

That's what Nelson Cruz is going to have to improve upon, and it gives you a sense of what the in-house options would have been if Cruz hadn't come aboard. The plurality of the at-bats at DH in 2013 were given to Nolan Reimold, who hit .195. Also getting significant time in the role were Yankees' castoff Chris Dickerson, Red Sox castoff Danny Valencia, and something called "Henry Urrutia." If the Orioles wanted to have any chance of improving this year, they had to do something about the open wound that was the DH position in their lineup.

Devizier · Feb 24, 2014

Pretty much a market-rate signing, even if Nelson Cruz doesn't think so.

I think it's a good one for the Orioles, given how anemic their offense has been beyond Machado and Davis.

LondonSox · Feb 25, 2014

You couldn't do better for a DH than a one year for Cruz that costs a high draft pick?
A win now move? Am I missing something

AlNipper49 · Feb 25, 2014

LondonSox said:
You couldn't do better for a DH than a one year for Cruz that costs a high draft pick?
A win now move? Am I missing something

Well, they also lost their 1 with Jiminez which is why folks were predicting the balls would start dropping for them once that happened

Spacemans Bong · Feb 25, 2014

LondonSox said:
You couldn't do better for a DH than a one year for Cruz that costs a high draft pick?
A win now move? Am I missing something

Why not win now? Most of their good players are in their late 20s, they signed Ubaldo and that Taiwanese guy, and now they signed a guy who should hit a lot better than their current options at DH for $8 million. They forfeited a second round pick for Cruz, it's not like they gave up the number 1 in the draft.

They won 85 games last year, an extra 4 wins from Ubaldo and Cruz and we might be talking play-in game.

Plympton91 · Feb 25, 2014

Spacemans Bong said:
Why not win now? Most of their good players are in their late 20s, they signed Ubaldo and that Taiwanese guy, and now they signed a guy who should hit a lot better than their current options at DH for $8 million. They forfeited a second round pick for Cruz, it's not like they gave up the number 1 in the draft.

They won 85 games last year, an extra 4 wins from Ubaldo and Cruz and we might be talking play-in game.

Yeah, but that's just something called "winning." Don't you understand that the object of major league baseball is to accumulate the most draft picks and have the highest WAR/$?

Oh, sorry, that's a bit snarky, but I honestly don't get the constant criticism of teams that are trying to win baseball games in 2014. It's like we've all become NYY fans who think that unless you're making moves that make you the odds on favorite to win the ~~world series~~ post-season tournament championship, then you should punt the current season and try to be stronger in the future. The criticism of the Orioles is particularly off-base, because they are unlikely to be able to afford both Weiters and Davis going forward, but the signings of Jiminez and Cruz do nothing to alter that equation while making them significantly more likely to be serious contenders for the playoffs--which are a crap shoot, right?--this year. Plus, they've got their cheap future top of the rotation already in house, with Bundy and Gaussman having higher ceilings than anyone in the Red Sox system other than maybe Owens. They should now go sign Drew to play 2B, and I think that might make them the favorites in the East.

Rough Carrigan · Feb 25, 2014

LondonSox said:
You couldn't do better for a DH than a one year for Cruz that costs a high draft pick?
A win now move? Am I missing something

Yeah, this is my take as well.

Also, here are Cruz's career home and away splits (all but 7 of his career plate appearances have been as a Ranger)

Home: .294/.356/.556
Away: .242/.299/.435

For a tidy .178 difference in OPS (.912 at home and .734 away). Even if you don't think Biogenesis made him, a team would have to be leery that there doesn't seem to be any boom stick away from Arlington.

nattysez · Feb 25, 2014

Ed Hillel said:
This seems like a highly questionable signing to me, mostly because I disagree with your stance on the O's making the playoffs. I still think they're the fourth best team in the division by a decent margin, as I expect the Yankees to bounce back at anywhere from 90-95 wins. Why is a (potentially PEDless) year of Nelson Cruz worth a 2nd round pick in a year where their World Series odds are so low? I guess if the strategy is an all-in one, they may as well give up the 3rd and 4th rounders as well, but I really think it's only going to make it worse for them.

The Rays may trade Price at the deadline. The Jays are a mess. The Yankees will require a minor miracle to stay healthy enough to be really good. The O's have a number of guys who are in or close to their primes. If ever there was a time to win now, I'd say this is it.

That said, because Angelos is Angelos, "winning now" does not mean overpaying for the starting pitchers and better LF they need to be a clear contender. But Cruz is a solid DH candidate (unless he pulls a Melky and completely falls apart w/o PEDs) and if they can get Santana for reasonable money, Buck could work his magic and get them a WC berth.

Wingack · Feb 25, 2014

Devizier said:
Pretty much a market-rate signing, even if Nelson Cruz doesn't think so.

I think it's a good one for the Orioles, given how anemic their offense has been beyond Machado and Davis.

Don't forget Adam Jones who might be better than any hitter on the Yankees or Red Sox.

Plympton91 · Feb 25, 2014

nattysez said:
The Rays may trade Price at the deadline. The Jays are a mess. The Yankees will require a minor miracle to stay healthy enough to be really good. The O's have a number of guys who are in or close to their primes. If ever there was a time to win now, I'd say this is it.

That said, because Angelos is Angelos, "winning now" does not mean overpaying for the starting pitchers and better LF they need to be a clear contender. But Cruz is a solid DH candidate (unless he pulls a Melky and completely falls apart w/o PEDs) and if they can get Santana for reasonable money, Buck could work his magic and get them a WC berthd

They have Tillman, Jiminez, Chen, Norris, and Gonzalez in the rotation, and Gaussman on standby with Bundy maybe in the second half. They don't need a starting pitcher. I'd say their biggest question marks are 2B, LF, and concerns about why last year Weiters and Markakis lost the ability to get on base and hit for any power, respectively. Machado is also a bit of a hacker, and so his OPS doesn't live up to his reputation as a great hitter, especially at 3B. They have Delmon Young on a minor league contract, maybe they get lightning in a bottle there in what may be his last chance.

TheYellowDart5 · Feb 25, 2014

nattysez said:
The Rays may trade Price at the deadline. The Jays are a mess. The Yankees will require a minor miracle to stay healthy enough to be really good. The O's have a number of guys who are in or close to their primes. If ever there was a time to win now, I'd say this is it.

That said, because Angelos is Angelos, "winning now" does not mean overpaying for the starting pitchers and better LF they need to be a clear contender. But Cruz is a solid DH candidate (unless he pulls a Melky and completely falls apart w/o PEDs) and if they can get Santana for reasonable money, Buck could work his magic and get them a WC berth.

The only way the Rays trade Price at the deadline is if they're 15 games out of a playoff spot, and even then, they might not do it. There's no way he gets moved if they're in contention, given that Tampa can simply wait until the offseason to trade him anyway.

Wingack said:
Don't forget Adam Jones who might be better than any hitter on the Yankees or Red Sox.

Adam Jones? The guy with the .318 OBP last year and 115 OPS+? Better than David Ortiz or Dustin Pedroia or Mike Napoli or Carlos Beltran or Jacoby Ellsbury?

cannonball 1729 · Feb 25, 2014

Plympton91 said:
Yeah, but that's just something called "winning." Don't you understand that the object of major league baseball is to accumulate the most draft picks and have the highest WAR/$?

Oh, sorry, that's a bit snarky, but I honestly don't get the constant criticism of teams that are trying to win baseball games in 2014. It's like we've all become NYY fans who think that unless you're making moves that make you the odds on favorite to win the ~~world series~~ post-season tournament championship, then you should punt the current season and try to be stronger in the future. The criticism of the Orioles is particularly off-base, because they are unlikely to be able to afford both Weiters and Davis going forward, but the signings of Jiminez and Cruz do nothing to alter that equation while making them significantly more likely to be serious contenders for the playoffs--which are a crap shoot, right?--this year. Plus, they've got their cheap future top of the rotation already in house, with Bundy and Gaussman having higher ceilings than anyone in the Red Sox system other than maybe Owens. They should now go sign Drew to play 2B, and I think that might make them the favorites in the East.

Yeah - I've been on the other side of Plympton on many of these "now vs. later" debates, but second round draft picks just aren't worth getting upset over. According to the stuff that phillysoxfan used to post on this board, you have somewhere between a 1 in 10 and a 1 in 20 chance of getting a useful player (i.e. greater than 20 WARP3 in the player's career) deep in the second round (and I believe it was closer to 1 in 20 than to 1 in 10). Giving up a single-digit percent chance of a useful player for someone who clearly represents an upgrade to your team right now just doesn't seem like that ridiculous of a position. The O's really aren't far from contention, and it's an easy and cheap way to add a couple of wins.

nattysez · Feb 25, 2014

Plympton91 said:
They have Tillman, Jiminez, Chen, Norris, and Gonzalez in the rotation, and Gaussman on standby with Bundy maybe in the second half. They don't need a starting pitcher. I'd say their biggest question marks are 2B, LF, and concerns about why last year Weiters and Markakis lost the ability to get on base and hit for any power, respectively. Machado is also a bit of a hacker, and so his OPS doesn't live up to his reputation as a great hitter, especially at 3B. They have Delmon Young on a minor league contract, maybe they get lightning in a bottle there in what may be his last chance.

I somehow completely forgot they signed Ubaldo (hence my reference to them signing Santana). I don't think Norris is all that great, but that's probably a rotation they can make the WC with.

Wingack · Feb 25, 2014

TheYellowDart5 said:
The only way the Rays trade Price at the deadline is if they're 15 games out of a playoff spot, and even then, they might not do it. There's no way he gets moved if they're in contention, given that Tampa can simply wait until the offseason to trade him anyway.

Adam Jones? The guy with the .318 OBP last year and 115 OPS+? Better than David Ortiz or Dustin Pedroia or Mike Napoli or Carlos Beltran or Jacoby Ellsbury?

Sure, he isn't a great OBP guy but he is remarkably steady. For the past few years he has hit in the .280's. The last two years he has hit over 30 HRs and scored over 100 runs and stolen around 15 bases. I think he is a safe bet to do all of that again.

LondonSox · Feb 26, 2014

I had also forgotten that they had signed Jiminez. Which makes it less of a big deal on the pick side of things.
My point was though it's not clear (as per Rough's post) that Cruz is that good, and giving up a good pick for a 1y contract for a DH who could easily be replacement value seems odd to me.
I really struggle with how teams fill their DH. It seems MOST farms have a guy who can hit without a position, I would be looking at these guys before paying Cruz and his questionable stats and steroid history 8 million. The fact it hurts your farm in addition is just an additional negative.

They would be better off spending that 8 million on helping resign players with a future imo.

Spacemans Bong · Feb 26, 2014

You think Duke hasn't thought of that first? I mean, how many GMs are better at finding free talent off the scrap heap? It's his number one strength.

inoffensiv philosophy · Feb 26, 2014

cannonball 1729 said:
Just for some perspective, here's how Orioles' DH's hit last year:

.234/.289/.415.

That's bad for a shortstop. It's abysmal for a position where the only job requirement is to hit.

That OPS is actually basically the mid-point between the MLB-wide OPS for DHs (.721) and for SSes (.683). Not a big issue, and you were probably self-consciously hyperbole-ing it up a bit, but I think people are still adjusting to this environment in which a .700 OPS is pretty close to league average. That OPS@DH for the Orioles is actually in the top half of the AL (7th).

cannonball 1729 · Feb 28, 2014

inoffensiv philosophy said:
That OPS is actually basically the mid-point between the MLB-wide OPS for DHs (.721) and for SSes (.683). Not a big issue, and you were probably self-consciously hyperbole-ing it up a bit, but I think people are still adjusting to this environment in which a .700 OPS is pretty close to league average. That OPS@DH for the Orioles is actually in the top half of the AL (7th).

By OPS, sure. But OPS drastically overvalues SLG at the expense of OBP, and Baltimore DH OBPs were awful; that .289 was good for 13th in the league among DH positions (despite the fact that those DHs played slightly more than half of their games in a significant hitters park at Camden Yards).

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