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NY rotation 2019

Discussion in 'Yankees Discussion' started by jon abbey, Dec 5, 2018.

  1. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    38,649
    So with NY trading for Paxton and the Corbin pursuit coming up short, NY is pursuing definitely one and possibly two more #4 or better SPs to still add, so I thought I'd try to see where they stood in addition to the top 5. First three not in any real order, Severino can be the top 3 AL pitcher he was for a season and a half or the junk he was for most of the second half last year, plus they might move around for L/R balance once we see who else is added:

    Paxton
    Tanaka
    Severino
    ???
    CC

    (Sonny Gray) (will be traded but has not been yet)

    Luis Cessa (out of options and terrible, I expect him to be moved any day but I did all last winter also)
    Domingo German (out of options, maybe the long guy in NY to start the season)
    Jonathan Loaisiga (a couple of superb outings for NY last June, shutting down TB and PHI)
    Parker Bridwell (out of options, presumably they will try to sneak him through waivers and down to AAA at some point)
    Mike King (not on the 40 man yet because he was a 2016 draft pick but has thrown 149 and 161 innings in the minors the last two seasons and ended last year dominant in AAA, a 1.15 ERA in 6 starts, 39 20 5 5 6 31, the rare kid coming up these days who would not really need an innings restriction)
    Chance Adams (not sure if he is a starter or a reliever now, hope he figures it out again because he had a couple of dominant seasons before last one)
    Domingo Acevedo/Albert Abreu (big arms that are not big league ready but they are both on the 40 man, so maybe in an emergency)

    So assuming Gray and Cessa are gone, you can see why it makes sense IMO to add two more quality FA SPs (Happ and Morton would work), that way you can juggle six guys if you need to using the DL and German/Loaisiga/maybe Bridwell/King/Acevedo are options 7-11 instead of 6-10.
     
  2. Big John

    Big John lurker

    Messages:
    998
    Any word on the Japanese lefty Kikuchi?
     
  3. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    34,891
  4. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    11,924
    So basically Cashman wants to find a player who is willing to accept 1 year fewer than what everyone else will probably give him. Good luck with that.
     
  5. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    998
    Well, he's got a 100-win team if he stands pat, so why overpay?
     
  6. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Yankees seem to have relented and signed Happ to 3 year deal



    Now Ken says they are close but not in agreement.

     
    #6 RedOctober3829, Dec 12, 2018 at 10:01 AM
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2018 at 10:11 AM
  7. NYCSox

    NYCSox chris hansen of goats Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    7,765
    I guess that means the Mets realized they were being played by Cashman and called off the Thor deal.
     
  8. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    38,649
    That works, so it’s:

    Paxton
    Severino
    Happ
    Tanaka
    CC

    And Montgomery maybe back mid-season.
     
  9. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    38,649
    So Paxton and Happ bump Gray and Montgomery from the rotation that began 2018.
     
  10. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Not so fast. Rosenthal now says no agreement as of yet.
     
  11. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    11,924
    I'm happy about this but still wouldn't mind if Cashman went hard after a Syndergaard or Kluber. Happ was excellent for us.
     
  12. EvilEmpire

    EvilEmpire Dope Staff Member Dope

    Messages:
    8,673
    Impossible to know what is really going on, but I think it more likely that Mets ownership isn't really serious about trading Thor to the Yankees.

    That said, I don't think signing Happ prevents anything from happening. Maybe lessens the pressure on Cashman a bit.
     
  13. DanoooME

    DanoooME Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    14,676
    How much is too much for Happ? I mean, the three years makes sense. MLBTR says $48M. My guess, based on MLBTR and actual results, is $54M. Is that too much for him? It sounds like a lot.
     
  14. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    38,649
    He was really good down the stretch for NY and has AL East experience, but I haven't seen any rumors on money yet.
     
  15. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    11,924
    I doubt it's really an AAV question here, more about the length. I don't think Cash will really care about giving $18 per vs $16 per for example
     
  16. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    594
    I'm a bit surprised that the Yanks didn't make a run at Morton. This appears to be a nice signing by the Rays: Morton will earn $30MM over the two-year contract and the deal also contains an option for the 2021 season that could be worth as much as $15MM if Morton remains healthy, though could also be as low as $1MM should Morton suffer a significant injury over the course of the initial two years.

     
  17. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Morton had injury issues last year and didn’t do much after mid-August. HOU only has two locks for the rotation currently and they know more about him than anyone, so for them to not top 2/30 says something.
     
  18. EvilEmpire

    EvilEmpire Dope Staff Member Dope

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    8,673
    I'd rather have Happ than Morton, even if the extra year is a bit unfortunate. Go with what you know.
     
  19. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    998
    The extra year with Happ doesn't bother me. He's not a power pitcher whose stuff will degrade over time, although he did have trouble with his elbow in 2017.
     
  20. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    Yea, and it says a lot that Morton's market at his age, with last year's performance, didn't even top 2 years. I wonder if this impacts the deal that Happ gets. I don't think its a precedent setting deal but he is younger and coming off a strong year
     
  21. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    34,891
    Happ deal agreed to pending physical. 2 years with a vesting option.

     
  22. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    No one has even guessed numbers on the Happ deal (I mean the writers), I will guess 2/36 and maybe 20 more if the third year vests. Otherwise NY really got a good deal here, although TEX presumably needed to pay a premium for Lynn because no SP can build value there, even Hamels was awesome on the road and shelled at home before he was traded last year (2.93 ERA on the road, 6.41 at home).
     
  23. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    I’m going to guess $2/40 with a $20 million vesting option based on IP.
     
  24. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    38,649
  25. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Right in your ballpark JA.
     
  26. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    38,649
    I think Cashman did as well as he could with the rotation, Kluber and Syndergaard were the two clear upgrades who were maaaybe available, but I don't think Syndergaard really was short of maybe Gleyber and I have always thought CLE would make a deal with the Dodgers or anyone in the NL before they traded Kluber to NY. I am a big Paxton fan and Happ was great down the stretch last year, best NY rotation on paper in a while.
     
  27. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    11,924
    Already posted - Awesome deal at $17m per.
     
  28. EvilEmpire

    EvilEmpire Dope Staff Member Dope

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    Can't complain about that deal at all. Time to figure out the infield.
     
  29. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Heyman has the numbers for the JA Happ contract as straight $17 million each year including the vesting option.
     
  30. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    998
    Has anyone reported the performance criteria that trigger Happ's third-year vesting?
     
  31. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    38,649
    They just did, 27 starts or 165 innings in 2020.
     
  32. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    998
    That's team friendly. Starters who pitch 200+ innings these days are virtual iron men.
     

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