NY minor league prospect news (2015 edition)

jon abbey

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Figured I'd start a new thread with Kiley McDaniel's epic post on the NY farm system at Fangraphs from yesterday. McDaniel:

"I’ve been updating a grid with the updated rankings for each system and the Yankees are the deepest team in all three subsections of the Others of Note section, along with having the most 40 FV players and are just a couple short of having the most 45 FV players. Tampa Bay is the only other team with close to this kind of depth, but the Yankees have two top-end talents (RHP Luis Severino and RF Aaron Judge) that the Rays can’t match, which helps separate the Bombers from Tampa Bay and other deep systems. Right now, I have the Yankees as the 10th best system in baseball, but with the bulk of high upside young talent and five of the top six prospects likely returning to next year’s list making it better than 50/50 that they’ll be even higher next year."
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-new-york-yankees/
 

jon abbey

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Keith Law, on the other hand, has NY with the 20th best system currently. I think the major difference is that McDaniel is factoring in the recent influx of talent much more strongly, also I think he is a more thorough researcher than Law. The truth is probably somewhere in between, here is Law's full 'writeup' from the rankings:

"The Yankees' system still has more talent than production, as several key prospects continued to have trouble staying on the field, but a very strong 2013 draft class and a blowout year on the international front have the system trending up again."
 
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12211903/chicago-cubs-no-1-farm-system-rankings-2015-mlb (Insider)
 

jon abbey

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Wow, somehow I don't think I knew he was Korean by birth, interesting. Thanks for the pointer. 
 

jon abbey

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Bad news for NY's #6 prospect on that RAB list, young catcher Luis Torrens:

"Stud catching prospect Luis Torrens, who turns 19 in May, is undergoing tests to determine the severity of a right shoulder injury that could cost him the 2015 season."
 
http://nypost.com/2015/02/27/cc-sabathia-happy-with-throwing-program-new-knee-brace/
 
That one line in the Post today is the only info I see on the web about this. He wasn't going to help the MLB club this year anyway, but you still hate to see that, fingers crossed it's not as bad as it could be. 
 

jon abbey

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And it's official, Torrens has a torn labrum, will have surgery tomorrow and is out for the year. At least he's only 18. 
 

jon abbey

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If you listen to Hal, I think if anything they are going to err in the other direction with this current batch of prospects (those two, Bird, Lindgren, maybe Refsnyder) and maybe push them to the majors before they're ready if they're needed, as Hal still wants to get under whatever the luxury tax is for at least one season, maybe in 2017 or 2018. They are not trading for Cole Hamels, there was never a chance of that. 
 

Sampo Gida

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jon abbey said:
If you listen to Hal, I think if anything they are going to err in the other direction with this current batch of prospects (those two, Bird, Lindgren, maybe Refsnyder) and maybe push them to the majors before they're ready if they're needed, as Hal still wants to get under whatever the luxury tax is for at least one season, maybe in 2017 or 2018. They are not trading for Cole Hamels, there was never a chance of that. 
 
If fans stop showing up at the park Hals budget and desires to be under the LT threshold go out the window.  That has not happened and last year revenues increased 47 million over 2013, so he has a cushion.  So you are right on Hamels as of now.
 
  Earlier this ST he implied Cashman could be held accountable if the prospects don't turn out to be as good as they have been projected to be (injuries excluded).  I could see Bird coming in for Tex, Judge for Beltran in RF, Ref at 2B for Drew and Severino in to replace whomever by July if things don't go well.  In this way Hal wont have to make much of a move at the deadline, and even if they are out of the race fans will show up to watch the future, plus he gets to judge how accurate internal projections are (taking into account SSS).     Cashman may have a 3 year deal, but he makes peanuts and could go anytime if the team has a rough 2015 at the MLB level and DOTF.   Another down year and if the prospects have a bad year Hal might need to scrap Cashman and his budget.
 

rotundlio

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This is an amazing stat: Luis Severino had the lowest FIP of any minor league pitcher last year who threw at least 100 innings, 551 qualifiers!
 
FIP is nearly useless. Severino had a 3.4% HR/FB ratio. His SIERA, still impressive, was more than half a run higher. The top third of that list probably suppressed HR/FB to varying degrees, but even überprospects like Giolito, Urías, Moore, Teherán, and Cole haven't shown that ability.
 
 
If fans stop showing up at the park Hals budget and desires to be under the LT threshold go out the window.  That has not happened and last year revenues increased 47 million over 2013, so he has a cushion. So you are right on Hamels as of now.
 
Outsize twelve-year-old Ben Lindbergh wrote about this on Grantland the other day.
 
 
Off-Field Story Line: The possibility of a post-Jeter attendance crash. In my essay for Baseball Prospectus 2015http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17913202-baseball-prospectus-2015, I wrote that the Yankees, by all rights, should have drawn far fewer fans in 2014. Historically, their fan base — accustomed to a steady supply of October adrenaline — has abandoned its luxury boxes at the first sign of adversity. True to form, the team’s 2013 attendance fell by 3,000 fans per home game, baseball’s sixth-biggest drop, despite Mariano Rivera’s retirement tour. But even though last year’s team never reached a 40 percent probability of winning the AL East — and fell below the 50 percent playoff odds point for good on June 22 — the Yankees bucked a leaguewide drop in attendance to rebound by 2,000 fans per game. That’s the Jeter effect: Whatever the 40-year-old Captain’s failings on the field, he was minting money for the franchise.
 
Without another well-timed retirement tour to mask their mediocrity, the Yankees are trying to ward off an attendance disaster by holding nostalgia-swathed ceremonies for every Yankee from the dynasty years, up to and including Luis Polonia Night. (Tickets on sale for September 21!) It will be fascinating to see whether their strategy works — and, if it doesn’t, whether they’ll stick to their new spending restraint any longer than they did their $189 millionhttp://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22649 false ceiling.
 
 
I think New York is the best team in the East on paper, but that's auspicious.
 

jon abbey

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Tanaka has to be a huge draw in his home starts, he had 10 last year and will hopefully have more this year if he stays healthy. 
 
Edit: Actually it looks like they were only up 900 or so on average in those 10 starts, around 43,400 as compared 42,520 on average for the whole season. Also dumping Ichiro is going to hurt here, that Japanese tourist fan contingent was massive (seriously). 
 

terrynever

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Cashman hinting today that Lindgren could go north. Told MLB.com's Bryan Hoch "there is a reason we have kept him in camp so long."
 

jon abbey

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Heh, he actually got sent down today, which I thought was strange. Not sure who the 7th reliever is over him, maybe Shreve. I guess it could be Bailey, hopefully it's not Martin.
 

terrynever

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jon abbey said:
Heh, he actually got sent down today, which I thought was strange. Not sure who the 7th reliever is over him, maybe Shreve. I guess it could be Bailey, hopefully it's not Martin.
Not a big deal they sent Lindgren down. Just a matter of time before he is back up.
 

jon abbey

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Yikes, Refsnyder has 38 PAs this spring and has committed 5 errors. He does have a .921 OPS at least, but that might help explain why they signed Stephen Drew.
 

jon abbey

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Refsnyder with yet another E leading off today's game: a nice sliding stop to his left, then got up and threw it wide of first.
 

terrynever

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jon abbey said:
Yikes, Refsnyder has 38 PAs this spring and has committed 5 errors. He does have a .921 OPS at least, but that might help explain why they signed Stephen Drew.
jon abbey said:
Refsnyder with yet another E leading off today's game: a nice sliding stop to his left, then got up and threw it wide of first.
And then another base hit in the bottom of the second. Hitting .361 this spring. How many games of second base experience does it take to work out the kinks? He had a full season there in 2014. Love the bat. He can't go back to RF with Judge on the rise.
 

jon abbey

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Maybe it's just a bad streak at a bad time, he's definitely staying at 2B for a while:
 
https://twitter.com/RailRidersTT/status/582955730321469441
 

terrynever

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Well, he did make 25 errors at 2B in 2013 in his first season in the infield after playing RF in college. Then he made 12 overall last summer, 9 in Trenton and 3 in Scranton. You don't see outfielders switched to infield as often as the other way around. Mantle started in the low minors as a SS, made 63 errors in Joplin, and moved to RF the next season and then CF after Joe D retired. Jeter also made a huge amount of errors at SS in his first two pro seasons but Brian Butterfield fixed his footwork.

Most of Refsnyder's errors this spring have come on throws. That is usually footwork related. My guess is he needs a few months at Scranton to work on this issue in a pressure-free environment. Yanks don't need another Knoblauch situation.

The Drew signing seems very wise, especially if his hitting prowess returns.
 

jon abbey

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Slade Heathcott seemed to be solidly in the 'failed prospect' category, dropped from the 40 man over the winter, but he has had a very nice spring, which got him assigned to AAA to start the year (higher than expected) and today the NY writers voted him as the best young player in NY camp this spring. 
 

jon abbey

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I couldn't bring myself to post that earlier, poor kid. 
 

jon abbey

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Ramon Flores hit for the cycle in Scranton's first game last night in AAA. He's not a huge prospect, but he would likely be the one called up if any of NY's outfielders have to go on the DL. 
 

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He could be a good piece for the Yanks if this Kiley McDaniel is right.
 
19. Ramon Flores. LF Video: Flores is one of those players that reached his upside quickly, but doesn’t have much more to offer than as a solid part-time player. He has solid bat speed, great plate discipline and feel to hit with good plate coverage, but average at best power that limits the damage he can do.  Flores is a heady player with average speed and arm strength that can play all three outfield positions and should be able to contribute to the Yankees at some point in 2015 as the prototypical 4th outfielder that could hit his way into being a low-end regular for a few years.
A low cost fourth outfielder would be a good addition.
 

jon abbey

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NY's actual team sucks, but their AA team at Trenton is a powerhouse. They were named the other day as one of the ten most talented minor league teams on any level, they won their opener 15-2 and today they are up 9-4. Judge HRd yesterday, Sanchez today, Jagielo has two today. Their lineup is filled with prospects top to bottom, the first 8 guys today:
 
Jake Cave
Aaron Judge
Greg Bird
Gary Sanchez
Eric Jagielo
Dante Bichette
Mason Williams
Cito Culver
 

jon abbey

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Refsnyder is hitting well in AAA, but 2 more errors in the first 3 games means Stephen Drew's job continues to be safe.
 

terrynever

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jon abbey said:
Refsnyder is hitting well in AAA, but 2 more errors in the first 3 games means Stephen Drew's job continues to be safe.
He would fit right in with this year's infield defense.
 

jon abbey

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Former top 100 prospect Tyler Austin is off to a hot start after a couple of meh seasons, he is 23 (24 in Sept) and has a 1.032 OPS in AAA through 5 games.
 

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So suffice to say Jorge Mateo is fast.  He has been on base 6 times and has 7 steals already.   I think BA said he was an 80 on the 80 scale (and well could be a 90 or 100)
 

jon abbey

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Severino's first start of the year was a dominant 5 1 0 0 0 8 in AA Trenton.
 

jon abbey

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Good news: My man Judge with a walkoff HR in the 10th last night, second of the season.
 
Bad news: Refsnyder made his 4th error in 7 games, not cool. 
 

jon abbey

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BigMike said:
So suffice to say Jorge Mateo is fast.  He has been on base 6 times and has 7 steals already.   I think BA said he was an 80 on the 80 scale (and well could be a 90 or 100)
 
Mateo and Avellino, teammates in lower A, now have 25 steals between them in 11 games. 
 

jon abbey

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Mateo stole three more bases yesterday (1 CS too), now he leads the minors with 18 SBs in 20 games.
 

jon abbey

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jon abbey said:
 
Mateo and Avelino, teammates in lower A, now have 25 steals between them in 11 games. 
 
Avelino promoted to high A, presumably so he and Mateo can both play SS (on different teams, obv). 
 

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Aaron Judge 3-for-4 tonight, now hitting .337 in 98 ABs. They probably want him to get 200 ABs in AA ball. If he is still hitting well, they might jump him to Scranton in July.
 

jon abbey

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Slade Heathcott has pushed his way back into being a potential callup in case of injury to one of the outfielders. He is leading off every day in AAA and hitting .340 through 109 PAs. 
 

jon abbey

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Greg Bird onto the AA DL with a shoulder injury, no more details yet. 
 

jon abbey

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Mateo with 4 more steals tonight, now up to 25 in 27 games. 
 

jon abbey

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Not totally sure, he's definitely not hitting much now (.652 OPS), but he doesn't turn 20 until next month, and also of course the bar for offense for a shortstop is much lower than for an outfielder.
 

jon abbey

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Another rough start for Severino, 2 5 4 4 0 3, pulled after 42 pitches, hopefully he's OK. 
 

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https://twitter.com/RiverAveBlues/status/597537862544990209
 

jon abbey

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He's still in AA, he's probably not really ready yet, but presumably the plan is for him to take over from Beltran whenever that may be.