NY bullpen 2016

jon abbey

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Seems like the right time to start this, after NY traded their two best 7th inning options in the last two days, Warren and Wilson.

So currently they have Betances and Miller at the back, and then five pretty open spots. One of those will probably be filled by Nova or Bryan Mitchell as the long man, while the other stays stretched out in AAA.

So candidates for the other four open spots:

Jacob Lindgren
Chasen Shreve
James Pazos
Branden Pinder
Nick Goody
Nick Rumbelow
Johnny Barbato
Caleb Cotham

Those guys are all already on the 40 man roster, there are probably other candidates who aren't, but that's a start, at least. Spring training just got a lot more interesting for all of those guys...
 

jon abbey

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Two other in-house candidates not on the 40 man, if the competition remains this open are Mark Montgomery, on his way back from arm issues with a very solid season as the closer in AA last year (.196 BAA, 1.09 WHIP) and Diego Moreno, who was nothing memorable before turning in maybe the best regular season single game outing I have ever seen from a NYY reliever, stranding the bases loaded in the 1st and keeping NY only 5-0 down (good job Capuano), then being close to perfect through 5 1/3 as NY scored an unanswered 19 runs (!!!). He developed elbow trouble soon after (maybe no coincidence, he wasn't really stretched out for an outing that long but NY was desperate) and was out for the year. Dunno if he's back to full health, he's got a lot of guys probably ahead of him again, but another MLB-capable arm who will probably start in AAA.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=605384#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL

http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=350728113
 

jon abbey

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In retrospect, the Shawn Kelley for Johnny Barbato deal made in Dec 2014 was a precursor to the Wilson one, but last year Cashman brought in Miller and Wilson and Shreve (and David Carpenter) while trading Kelley and letting Robertson go whereas this year it really seems like he is going to fill some spots internally. The 2015 Yankees could have really used Kelley as the second RH reliever they couldn't find all year until Warren had to be moved from the rotation (innings issues also for Warren), but that deal was more understandable at the time than the Wilson one now.
 

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Jon, how do you feel about this? Is it safe to assume the strategy is to pick up established middle relievers on the cheap as time goes on?
 

jon abbey

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Well, he does have a full pipeline of possibilities as shown above, and if he can somehow develop the next David Robertson (a 17th round draft pick who was never a huge prospect), then he's obviously creating a lot of value by opening up this chance. For instance, Melancon and Clippard both came through the Yankee system, but neither got a real chance here, NY does seem to churn out quality relievers. I'm not sure about adding veterans, I'm sure he would if the cost/risk made sense, but like I said in one of these threads, at some point you need to stop stockpiling promising relievers on your 40 man and see if they can actually deliver or not.

The Wilson move without a followup is initially pretty odd, but maybe he genuinely likes one or both of the SPs he got back. Chad Green, the secondary prospect, closed the season on a very impressive run in his final 8 starts in AA, a combined 47.2 42 13 9 11 49, 1.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, so maybe Cashman thinks he's turned a corner. They are going to need Mitchell or Nova if not both in the MLB bullpen, so that leaves the other as 6th starter and a big hole after that. Both of these new guys from DET (Cessa/Green) are coming off 140-150 inning seasons, so innings limits won't be much of an issue either if they're needed.

The other thing that crossed my mind tonight was offering Refsnyder (who is pretty blocked by Castro now) for Chapman. If he is suspended longer than 34 baseball days, he will lose a year of service and not be eligible for FA until after the 2017 season (presumably there would be an instant grievance filed, so who knows). Maybe Cincy would be happy to cut bait on Chapman at this point and move on, dunno. That would also make it much easier to move Miller and not be too short-term vulnerable, they could probably get a ton for him at the trading deadline if not sooner.
 

jon abbey

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One more in-house candidate, NY just resigned Domingo German to a minor league deal. He came over in the Prado/Eovaldi deal last winter, and was MIA's #6 prospect before having to get Tommy John surgery in spring training and missing the entire year. He is still 23 and maybe a candidate to help in late 2016 or 2017, although he hasn't been a reliever since 2012.

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2015/12/11/worked-yankees-re-sign-domingo-german/

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=593334#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL
 

jon abbey

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So the more I think about NY's moves here, especially the pretty-inexplicable-on-the-surface Wilson deal, I think their goal is increased flexibility in the bullpen, meaning keeping three or even four spots for guys who can easily be shuttled up and down. They did this this past season using only one or two roster spots, and that is trickier, as it often doesn't allow guys to get into any kind of groove with the big league team to show what they've got, or what they don't have. But if NY goes with Betances/Miller and Mitchell or Nova as a long guy, that will leave them four spots for yo-yoing all of the potential candidates and should keep their bullpen very fresh. This isn't easy to pull off in reality, and even less so if they don't get length from the starters as was the case for long stretches last year, but I think roster flexibility in the bullpen is at least part of the thinking here.
 

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Nice. I always liked Pestano as a sleeper closer option in fantasy. Guy had good stuff. Hopefully the Yankees can get him back to where he once was.

Plus, with that name, he was born to be a Yankee.
 

jon abbey

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They still need a second reliable righty to emerge, but Miller/Betances/Chapman is a pretty ridiculous back three. Assuming they don't move Miller, I'd let Chapman be the closer which frees the other two up for multi-inning outings.
 
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jon abbey

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Some splits, OPS allowed:

Chapman: (2015: .554 RHB, .451 LHB; career: .535 RHB, .384 LHB)
Betances: (2015: .558 RHB, .454 LHB; career: .541 RHB, .453 LHB)
Miller: (2015: .444 RHB, .602 LHB; 2014: .446 RHB, .467 LHB; 2013: .526 RHB, .725 LHB) (career numbers are misleading in his case as he's only been a reliever since 2012, as we all know)

Justin Wilson (2015: .593 RHB, .621 LHB; career: .605 RHB, .618 LHB)

It's going to be fascinating to see how Girardi uses these three guys if they're all available. Chapman I think is the pretty obvious closer, he is the one going for a contract and it's what he's always done. My initial thought then would be Miller before Betances, L/R/L and Miller has the best numbers of the three against righties, and the most obvious candidates for the 6th inning guy now are both LHP, Shreve and Lindgren. The reverse splits for both Miller and Betances mean that maybe you should use them counterintuitively, so Shreve or Lindgren to Miller to Betances to Chapman is actually L/L/R/L but acts more like L/R/L/L.

Or maybe that's overthinking it and no matter how strong those back three guys are, they still need another actual reliable righty besides Betances. You'd think that wouldn't be so hard to find, but last year they had to pull Warren out of the rotation after Carpenter and Chris Martin couldn't do it and none of the young candidates distinguished themselves.

Anyway, nice problem to have, can you tell I'm excited?
 

jon abbey

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No surprise, but Girardi makes it semi-official that Chapman is the closer (pending his potential suspension, of course):

 

jon abbey

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MLBN ranked their top 10 best relievers in baseball, "based on results from "The Shredder" -- an algorithm based on player performance that accounts for both offense and defense that was put together by MLB Network's research department "without emotion or bias."" Wade Davis is first, and then the Yankee three-headed monster is in the next three spots, crazy:

1. Wade Davis
2. Dellin Betances
3. Aroldis Chapman
4. Andrew Miller
5. Zach Britton
6. Mark Melancon
7. Ken Giles
8. Tony Watson
9. Darren O'Day
10. Craig Kimbrel

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/163715536/royals-wade-davis-tops-list-of-best-relievers
 

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Going off on a tangent, I can't believe Mark Melancon, Jesus. It's scarcely believable that he's such a good reliever these days. Ben made a good trade but didn't stick with it.
 

jon abbey

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The Yankees drafted Melancon in the 9th round in 2006, as part of a pretty insane group of pitchers they drafted that year (round in parentheses):

Joba Chamberlain (1)
Ian Kennedy (1)
Zach McAllister (3)
George Kontos (5)
Dellin Betances (8)
Mark Melancon (9)
David Robertson (17)
 

jon abbey

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Shreve and Lindgren come into camp as the favorites for the 6th inning guys in front of the Nastier Boys (heh). Joel Sherman has written columns the last two days about Shreve's mystery late season collapse, which is still pretty inexplicable, velocity, arm angle, mechanics, all the same but the results went from dominant to dreadful. McCann thinks he might have been tipping his four-seam fastball, I guess as good an explanation as any, but he is a total question mark coming into the season after being one of NY's MVPs for the first 4-5 months.

http://nypost.com/2016/02/21/chasen-shreves-mystery-collapse-hangs-over-yankees-hope/
 

jon abbey

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With Chapman suspended the first 30 games and a FA at year's end, it occurs to me that Girardi is likely going to use him as much as he can in those final 132 games, he had 65 appearances last year and I wouldn't be surprised if he is close to that again even missing the first month.
 

jon abbey

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Jon Heyman tweeted about the NY bullpen this afternoon:

"Nobody is better on back-end of the pen than yanks, but they may look to add a veteran reliever or 2 to fill middle innings"


Honestly I think he is wrong here. Of course pretty much every team could use more reliable guys at the back of their pen, but I really think Cashman is going to go with the flexible spots and see if he can fill those spots internally. If you trade for a veteran, they are locked into a spot unless they go on the DL or are released, so I'll be surprised if NY adds anyone before the season starts.

Meanwhile of the internal candidates, Kirby Yates and Johnny Barbato have looked the best, Yates and Shreve have looked especially strong, Shreve has yet to allow a baserunner (!).

Shreve 7.1 0 0 0 0 8
Yates 5.2 2 0 0 1 8
Barbato 8.2 5 2 2 1 8

So while Chapman is out, my guess is we're looking at:

Nova
Barbato
Yates
Mitchell
Shreve
Betances
Miller

Nova and Mitchell in the pen leaves them very vulnerable in terms of rotation depth, so maybe Mitchell goes to AAA and stays stretched out, or maybe he goes down once Chapman is back if Yates or Barbato looks capable of being the second RH reliever. I tend to think they need him in the bigs and will worry about rotation depth if and when they need to, but we'll see.
 

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Looks like Nova will be in the bullpen. Here is what Girardi told the NY Daily News and others on Friday:

Girardi indicated Friday that although the Yankees are simply looking to take their five best starters, the decision might also involve the potential reverberations it will have inside the clubhouse.

“The room is important too, because you want those guys to stay together for a long time through thick and thin,” Girardi said. “You go through tough times, and you have to find a way to stay together sometimes.

“The room is important.”
 

jon abbey

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Nova's definitely going to be in the bullpen after spitting the bit yesterday, he also evidently had huge problems with the running game also besides giving up three HRs. The question is whether Mitchell will be there also, or will he stay stretched out as the sixth starter in AAA (I think he'll be in the bullpen because they need him there, much like Warren last year).
 

jon abbey

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Mitchell with four dominant innings today (4 1 0 0 0 4), he should probably be the fifth starter in a just world.
 

jon abbey

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Pinder has done well too, and pitched OK in the bigs last year (25 appearances, 2.93 ERA but a 1.52 WHIP), so he could be a candidate also for one of the Barbato/Yates spots.
 

jon abbey

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Bryan Mitchell makes the team, which I think is in part because Cessa has looked good enough that he can stay stretched out in the AAA rotation and bring him up to fill in if necessary until Nova or Mitchell could get stretched out.
 

jon abbey

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Pinder, Goody and Tyler Olsen sent down, so the only four candidates left for the two bullpen spots are Yates, Barbato, Cessa and Swarzak, the last two are seemingly much better fits in the AAA rotation.
 

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A potentially devastating blow to the Yankees here in the seventh inning of a scoreless game against the Braves when Andrew Miller, who was to serve as interim closer while Aroldis Chapman serves his suspension, got hit by a line drive off the bat of PH Williams Astudillo. The ball seemed to hit Millers right wrist, and he immediately left the mound, firing his hat into the dugout in disgust. More details as they become available
 

jon abbey

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At least it was his right wrist, fingers crossed about the severity.
 

jon abbey

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CT scan shows a 'chip fracture' in the right wrist, they're not sure yet if it means he will be on the DL to start the season.

ARGH.
 

jon abbey

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And Bryan Mitchell sprained his toe in that same game yesterday, April is looking like quite the test for NY's bullpen depth.
 

jon abbey

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Gotta love this guy:

"Andrew Miller says that his plan is to play through the injury. He doesn't see any reason why he can't pitch.

Andrew Miller: "It's my right hand. I'm a left handed pitcher. I don't think it should be a problem.""

 

jon abbey

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The best replacement is probably Cessa, but wow does that leave them thin on rotation depth then.
 

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Irregardless of what I said before (I know) I would love it if Miller starts the season active. I love the guy as a pitcher, and even though as a Sox fan I must hate the Yankees, it would be great to see a guy tough it out through an injury that actually might not affect his pitching ability, instead of taking the easy way out.
 

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Irregardless of what I said before (I know) I would love it if Miller starts the season active. I love the guy as a pitcher, and even though as a Sox fan I must hate the Yankees, it would be great to see a guy tough it out through an injury that actually might not affect his pitching ability, instead of taking the easy way out.
Miller said he got the idea to play with a wrist injury from Ellsbury!
 

jon abbey

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Barbato and Cessa have made the team, still one open spot. Carlos Torres opted out of his contract with ATL today, some of the RAB people are talking about him, but they still have Kirby Yates too who has looked great.
 

jon abbey

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Miller is cleared to pitch through his injury, the only question is pain tolerance, and the one inning at a time stints have to help there.

So NY still has one spot open, which I guess will be Kirby Yates or someone they pick up elsewhere?

Nova
???
Cessa
Barbato
Shreve
Betances
Miller

Chapman will be back after 30 days, Mitchell who knows when. Barbato especially is the one who will really get every chance to step up (unless they pick up someone they slot ahead of him), Cessa I'd assume they'd still like to stretch out in AAA if the bullpen depth allows it.
 

jon abbey

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No earned runs allowed in the Astros series for the bullpen, their only misstep was Betances in the opener, whose runs ended up being unearned because of his own error. The combined line for the six guys who pitched in relief in the series (everyone but Cessa):

11.1 9 3 0 3 18

Love those Ks. Hopefully when Chapman is back, Cessa can stretch out as a starter in AAA, because NY is remarkably thin right now if any SPs have to miss turns.
 

jon abbey

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Top shuttle candidates currently seem to be Pinder, Pazos, Goody, Lindgren (in A ball, but likely just to make sure he gets plenty of work in the warm weather after missing most of last year), plus someone will get bumped in a few weeks when Chapman is back (I'm guessing Cessa to stretch out, but a long way to go until then still).
 

jon abbey

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Tyler Olson and Diego Moreno also shuttle options, they combined for seven scoreless tonight against Pawtucket in AAA.
 

jon abbey

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Goody gave up another HR tonight, which I think is seven since the start of spring training, he's buried himself pretty deeply. Mark Montgomery on the flip side should probably be added to the list of options, he is the AA closer and was reliable in that role last year also.

So with Mitchell and Rumbelow out and Chapman still suspended, I'm guessing the current callup pecking order is something like this, depending of course on how rested guys are when they need one and somewhat whether they're a LHP or RHP:

Pinder-R
Pazos-L
Lindgren-L
Moreno-R (can give length, pitched 3 innings today)
Olson-L (can give length, pitched 4 innings today)

Those 5 are all on the 40 man except Moreno, maybe Montgomery is next after that.