NFL's Declining Viewership: One Slice at a Time

HowBoutDemSox

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 12, 2009
10,103
Another year, another drop in ratings:
NBC announced a 13.4 overnight rating for the Super Bowl champion Eagles’ last-second win over the Falcons. That was way down from the 14.6 for Chiefs-Patriots last year, which itself was way down from a 16.5 for Panthers-Broncos the year before, which itself was way down from a 17.7 for Steelers-Patriots the year before that.

Are there extenuating circumstances? Sure. Kickoff was delayed by almost an hour because of thunderstorms in Philadelphia, and the game was a sloppy, penalty-filled mess.

But there are only so many times that the NFL can spin its ratings decline as being the result of extenuating circumstances. Whatever the reasons, the league’s television ratings are not the juggernaut they once were. The NFL still gets national television ratings that any other sport (or, for that matter, any entertainment program) would kill for, but it no longer gets the kinds of television ratings it got a few years back.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/09/07/ratings-way-down-for-nfl-opener/
 

Brand Name

make hers mark
Moderator
SoSH Member
Oct 6, 2010
4,397
Moving the Line
Left without commentary, posting this bit to give a slice of what the casual fan is thinking, with respect to thoughts/response of the possible (eventual?) 2021 lockout. This passage was also chosen because he's also someone who doesn't exactly share the majority of the SoSH perspective on some specific matters:

The rate things are going, if there is a lockout, then a dork [sic] age for football would be confirmed; already, high schools are dropping the sport, college football has a lot of issues from money trumping tradition to national championship controversies, from garish uniforms to dishonest coaches and ADs, and then you have Colin Kaepernick opening up Pandora’s box. So just enjoy it now before things get worse.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
Left without commentary, posting this bit to give a slice of what the casual fan is thinking, with respect to thoughts/response of the possible (eventual?) 2021 lockout. This passage was also chosen because he's also someone who doesn't exactly share the majority of the SoSH perspective on some specific matters:

The rate things are going, if there is a lockout, then a dork [sic] age for football would be confirmed; already, high schools are dropping the sport, college football has a lot of issues from money trumping tradition to national championship controversies, from garish uniforms to dishonest coaches and ADs, and then you have Colin Kaepernick opening up Pandora’s box. So just enjoy it now before things get worse.
Could you expand a bit on "national championship controversies" and "garish uniforms", in college?
 

Brand Name

make hers mark
Moderator
SoSH Member
Oct 6, 2010
4,397
Moving the Line
Could you expand a bit on "national championship controversies" and "garish uniforms", in college?
Regarding championship controversies, from what I know of this guy, he was fully adamant that not only was UCF deserving of a seat at the CFB table last year but they were the best football team in the NCAA, by a fairly wide margin.

Regarding garish uniforms, this was the response I just got back:
Some schools' uniform designs this decade have been terrible; take a look at a recent Maryland uniform, for example, and you'll see what I mean. Other schools have had ugly designs; Miami (OH) had a terrible helmet design earlier in this decade, for example. Even worse, schools have gone with multiple helmets over the course of a season in addition to multiple uniforms; Oregon is the biggest sinner in that category.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,667
There is no way the NFL is going to get anywhere near the TV contract value they have currently. Which is only going to make the CBA fight that much uglier since both sides know the cap is going to take a giant shit once the TV contracts are renewed.
On the contrary; while the ratings may be on a downward trend; the overall decline in traditional television viewership has allowed live sports content to become even more valuable to networks. Delivering consistent, weekly ratings, even if their down from the heights before, is key to these networks and they’ll shell out bigger contracts during the next round of negotiations. Just look at the recent deals UFC and WWE have signed; which were both significant raises over their previous deals despite lower viewership.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
Regarding championship controversies, from what I know of this guy, he was fully adamant that not only was UCF deserving of a seat at the CFB table last year but they were the best football team in the NCAA, by a fairly wide margin.

Regarding garish uniforms, this was the response I just got back:
Some schools' uniform designs this decade have been terrible; take a look at a recent Maryland uniform, for example, and you'll see what I mean. Other schools have had ugly designs; Miami (OH) had a terrible helmet design earlier in this decade, for example. Even worse, schools have gone with multiple helmets over the course of a season in addition to multiple uniforms; Oregon is the biggest sinner in that category.
Ok, I thought that was your take on it, I didn’t catch any context on the comments who is this person? He sounds like ‘old man yells at cloud’.
 

Brand Name

make hers mark
Moderator
SoSH Member
Oct 6, 2010
4,397
Moving the Line
Ok, I thought that was your take on it, I didn’t catch any context on the comments who is this person? He sounds like ‘old man yells at cloud’.
Basically my point here was to show the casual fan thoughts on these matters, since, let's be honest, by fan devotion, this is who the NFL needs to market itself towards on the broader level.

He's someone who I have added on social media but find that kind of beyond the point here.

If he's representative of a demographic the NFL needs to hit (and they do, he's late 20s) then I think it raises some questions of how you market to this subsection of fans, be their claims and understandings be accurate or not. If they think the NFL is declining for reasons XYZ, what's the likely subsequent reaction by the league? Is there such a cycle here with perceptions by various player actions, where confirmation bias exists and results?
 

axx

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
8,126
On the contrary; while the ratings may be on a downward trend; the overall decline in traditional television viewership has allowed live sports content to become even more valuable to networks. Delivering consistent, weekly ratings, even if their down from the heights before, is key to these networks and they’ll shell out bigger contracts during the next round of negotiations. Just look at the recent deals UFC and WWE have signed; which were both significant raises over their previous deals despite lower viewership.
The big difference is though that the current NFL TV deals are absurdly expensive and it's pretty much a money loser outside of the SB. Have to think the networks aren't going to be willing to take such heavy losses anymore. I could see Facebook/Amazon/Yahoo taking over for ABC/ESPN but I can't see them shelling out anywhere near what the Mouse is paying.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
Basically my point here was to show the casual fan thoughts on these matters, since, let's be honest, by fan devotion, this is who the NFL needs to market itself towards on the broader level.

He's someone who I have added on social media but find that kind of beyond the point here.

If he's representative of a demographic the NFL needs to hit (and they do, he's late 20s) then I think it raises some questions of how you market to this subsection of fans, be their claims and understandings be accurate or not. If they think the NFL is declining for reasons XYZ, what's the likely subsequent reaction by the league? Is there such a cycle here with perceptions by various player actions, where confirmation bias exists and results?
I understood your point and I wasn’t asking how you knew him, I was asking - to your last point here - if it actually is someone the nfl should be worried about losing. I’m not sure why asking for context is beyond the point. Were this an 80 year old man, that’s a little different no?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
On the contrary; while the ratings may be on a downward trend; the overall decline in traditional television viewership has allowed live sports content to become even more valuable to networks. Delivering consistent, weekly ratings, even if their down from the heights before, is key to these networks and they’ll shell out bigger contracts during the next round of negotiations. Just look at the recent deals UFC and WWE have signed; which were both significant raises over their previous deals despite lower viewership.
Agree with this. Look back just 8 months to FOX paying $650m for the rights to Thursday Night football, up from the previous deal the NFL had for $450m. In todays uncertain television market, the NFL brings certainly even if it is not at the ridiculous levels of several seasons ago. There is a ton of value in this live product as evidenced by this FOX contract.
 

nolasoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 11, 2004
6,930
Displaced
FWIW: Once upon a time, I was an every Sunday fan. Now, I might—might—flip a Sunday game on if I’m on a treadmill at the gym. Otherwise, I don’t watch at all. Cutting cable next month, as well. One data point in a sea of millions.
 

kenneycb

Hates Goose Island Beer; Loves Backdoor Play
SoSH Member
Dec 2, 2006
16,089
Tuukka's refugee camp
The big difference is though that the current NFL TV deals are absurdly expensive and it's pretty much a money loser outside of the SB. Have to think the networks aren't going to be willing to take such heavy losses anymore. I could see Facebook/Amazon/Yahoo taking over for ABC/ESPN but I can't see them shelling out anywhere near what the Mouse is paying.
Do you have anything showing that it’s a money loser? Legitimately curious because I haven’t heard that before and I have zero sense into how ad sales have transformed over the last few years.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
FWIW: Once upon a time, I was an every Sunday fan. Now, I might—might—flip a Sunday game on if I’m on a treadmill at the gym. Otherwise, I don’t watch at all. Cutting cable next month, as well. One data point in a sea of millions.
Can I ask a follow up? Any kids since then? Job changes? Lifestyle? Marriage or SO?

When I was younger and single I watched every Sunday, paid for the ticket or went to a bar, dropped money on gambling and/or food and booze (if at a bar) and I’d sit through all three time slots.

Now? I’m 38, don’t want to waste the money and moved back to my teams market; I’m engaged and work a more normal schedule. I don’t gamble anymore. I don’t have time (or inclination) to do fantasy. I don’t have time between the wife, family and work to spend 11 hours every Sunday, I’ve got too much shit going on. I watch the Pats most every week and that’s it; if my group wants to play golf I can catch the recap or tape it. But it’s not over some disgust with the league. I, well, just don’t follow it as much. I have other things that take up my time and attention. Sometimes people’s patterns just change.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,054
Hingham, MA
I’m in a similar boat PP. 37, married, 3 kids, life is just different. 9-10 years ago I was single and watched 10 hours of NFL every Sunday. No more. And it’s mostly due to my life, although the league disgusts me.

Edit: and to be perfectly honest, I do kind of miss those days. They were so care-free, every Sunday was a blast (unless the Pats suffered a rare loss). I love my life today, my family, etc., but it was fun while it lasted.

On the flip side, my dad is probably as into it as he has ever been. He's been an empty nester for a while now; he has little better to do than watch football all day on Sunday. So maybe there will be a return to that level of viewing for me. But I kind of doubt it, as by the time I'll be ready for that, I'm not sure the league will exist.

TL;DR: I'd probably watch more if I could
 
Last edited:

axx

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
8,126
Do you have anything showing that it’s a money loser? Legitimately curious because I haven’t heard that before and I have zero sense into how ad sales have transformed over the last few years.
No (too lazy) but you can be assured the networks in years that they don't have the SB lose money.

Sunday Ticket is the same way; although you can argue that DirecTV's entire existence is based upon having it. I am sort of curious as to what AT&T thinks of it now.
 

patoaflac

Member
SoSH Member
May 6, 2016
2,115
Mexico City
Can I ask a follow up? Any kids since then? Job changes? Lifestyle? Marriage or SO?
Now? I’m 38, don’t want to waste the money and moved back to my teams market; I’m engaged and work a more normal schedule. I don’t gamble anymore. I don’t have time (or inclination) to do fantasy. I don’t have time between the wife, family and work to spend 11 hours every Sunday, I’ve got too much shit going on. I watch the Pats most every week and that’s it; if my group wants to play golf I can catch the recap or tape it. But it’s not over some disgust with the league. I, well, just don’t follow it as much. I have other things that take up my time and attention. Sometimes people’s patterns just change.
I believe this is happening to all of us. Today’s life is not as tranquil as it was 30 years ago. There are a lot of things to do for entertainment (to begn with every sport event is on tv), but also life is much more complicated; more traffic in cities, more job travels with delays at airports, more insecurity, etc. One dedicates a lot of time to many issues, there is not so much time for watching a specific sport.
 

nolasoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 11, 2004
6,930
Displaced
Can I ask a follow up? Any kids since then? Job changes? Lifestyle? Marriage or SO?

When I was younger and single I watched every Sunday, paid for the ticket or went to a bar, dropped money on gambling and/or food and booze (if at a bar) and I’d sit through all three time slots.

Now? I’m 38, don’t want to waste the money and moved back to my teams market; I’m engaged and work a more normal schedule. I don’t gamble anymore. I don’t have time (or inclination) to do fantasy. I don’t have time between the wife, family and work to spend 11 hours every Sunday, I’ve got too much shit going on. I watch the Pats most every week and that’s it; if my group wants to play golf I can catch the recap or tape it. But it’s not over some disgust with the league. I, well, just don’t follow it as much. I have other things that take up my time and attention. Sometimes people’s patterns just change.
No major life changes, except losing my dog, which I consider a major life event. Broke my heart.

I have followed the NFL since I was six years old. I just don’t enjoy watching the product anymore, and I can’t convince myself that it deserves my time.

I watch the Pats in the playoffs, but even then it is while I’m in the gym or maybe at home putting around with the tv on in the background.

I think the product has become stale and I really don’t like supporting a group of reactionary owners. Just one persons view, and I realize I am neither the target market nor the norm.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,233
Isn't football still relatively highly ranked programming due to across-the-board viewership splintering?
 

ifmanis5

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2007
63,740
Rotten Apple
Isn't football still relatively highly ranked programming due to across-the-board viewership splintering?
It sure is, even in the key demo: https://deadline.com/2018/05/2017-2018-tv-series-ratings-rankings-full-list-of-shows-1202395851

2017-2018 Broadcast Season Rankings – 18-49 Demo

Rank
program network rating
1 NFL Sunday Night Football NBC 6.2
2 This Is Us NBC 5.4
3 Roseanne ABC 5.0
4 NFL Thursday Night Football (CBS+NFLN) CBS 4.5
5 The Big Bang Theory CBS 4.4
6 NFL Sunday Night Football Pre-Kickoff NBC 4.3
7 NFL Thursday Night Football (NBC+NFLN) NBC 4.0

Even with the NFL down, and everything overall down, the NFL still performs very well in comparison to all the other options.
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2007
64,026
I believe this is happening to all of us. Today’s life is not as tranquil as it was 30 years ago. There are a lot of things to do for entertainment (to begn with every sport event is on tv), but also life is much more complicated; more traffic in cities, more job travels with delays at airports, more insecurity, etc. One dedicates a lot of time to many issues, there is not so much time for watching a specific sport.
Plus, I mean, corrections officers will tell you that even most of the most hardcore prisoners mellow out around 40.

Why should we be surprised that rabid fandom for violent contact sports--or any form of aggressive physical competition--recedes in regular folk too?

Of course, the ramifications of this for Tom Brady and some of his recent comments about not having as much fun are... potentially interesting.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
32,617
It sure is, even in the key demo: https://deadline.com/2018/05/2017-2018-tv-series-ratings-rankings-full-list-of-shows-1202395851

2017-2018 Broadcast Season Rankings – 18-49 Demo

Rank
program network rating
1 NFL Sunday Night Football NBC 6.2
2 This Is Us NBC 5.4
3 Roseanne ABC 5.0
4 NFL Thursday Night Football (CBS+NFLN) CBS 4.5
5 The Big Bang Theory CBS 4.4
6 NFL Sunday Night Football Pre-Kickoff NBC 4.3
7 NFL Thursday Night Football (NBC+NFLN) NBC 4.0

Even with the NFL down, and everything overall down, the NFL still performs very well in comparison to all the other options.

Because it is awesome. I just wish they could make their money without a bazillion commercials.
 

cheech13

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 5, 2006
1,608
https://awfulannouncing.com/cbs/super-bowl-liii-draws-lowest-overnight-rating-for-a-super-bowl-since-2009.html

The run of improving ratings for the National Football League may come to an end at the worst possible time. Austin Karp of Sports Business Journal tweeted that last night’s Patriots-Rams “thriller” registered a 44.9 overnight rating for CBS, the lowest since Super Bowl XLIII in 2009.

...

With such a low overnight rating, there’s a risk that total viewership will dip below 100 million people for the first time since Super Bowl XLIII between the Steelers-Cardinals in 2009