New and Improved--Pablo Sandoval, 3B

Koufax

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There's this other 3b in Portland who finished with a monster half year too. It's not likely, but it's there. Anyone in AA can theoretically be in the majors by July. Even if it is a 20 year old.
Are you talking about Rafael Devers? I'm not sure how to interpret / project minor league stats, but he had an OPS of .689 in Salem last year and judging from soxprospects.com, his fielding isn't great ("limited range"). They project him to be ready for the majors in 2018. At that point there will be 2 years left on Pablo's contract. Maybe at that point he'll have competition. God help us if we actually need Devers in 2017 - it looks like he has some developing to do in the minors first.
 

oumbi

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Are you talking about Rafael Devers? I'm not sure how to interpret / project minor league stats, but he had an OPS of .689 in Salem last year and judging from soxprospects.com, his fielding isn't great ("limited range"). They project him to be ready for the majors in 2018. At that point there will be 2 years left on Pablo's contract. Maybe at that point he'll have competition. God help us if we actually need Devers in 2017 - it looks like he has some developing to do in the minors first.
Not to undo your basic argument, but in Salem, Devers put up an OPS of .778 in 128 games. It was in Escondigo that he had an OPS of .689 in 13 games.

Plus, here is the soxprospects summation:

Summation: All-Star potential regardless of position due to his value at the plate. Potential to be a plus hitter for average with plus-to-better power. One of the most exciting young players in the system in years. Mature approach for his age, has shown the ability to handle aggressive assignments. Will stick at third base for the foreseeable future, but if his bat develops as projected, it would profile at first base.

http://soxprospects.com/players/devers-rafael.htm
 
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Cesar Crespo

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And in the 2nd half (284 PA), Devers slashed .326/.367/.539. There were rumors his first half struggles were due to him taking pitches to improve his recognition. Whether that's true or not, who knows.
 

Koufax

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Well that was stupid of me. You're right about the OPS. As for the soxprospects writeup I think the operative word is "potential". I'd love it if he were to beat out Panda this year, I just don't see it happening even if Panda puts on 21 pounds in 21 days.
 

nvalvo

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Well that was stupid of me. You're right about the OPS. As for the soxprospects writeup I think the operative word is "potential". I'd love it if he were to beat out Panda this year, I just don't see it happening even if Panda puts on 21 pounds in 21 days.
Nor should he. The argument was only that Devers is an emergency option, fourth or fifth on the 3b depth chart, behind Panda, Holt, Rutledge, and Hernandez, in some order.

Sandoval has been a good hitter. Maybe he can get back to that; maybe not. I think P91's comparisons to Sizemore are hyperbolic, but I guess we'll see.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Well that was stupid of me. You're right about the OPS. As for the soxprospects writeup I think the operative word is "potential". I'd love it if he were to beat out Panda this year, I just don't see it happening even if Panda puts on 21 pounds in 21 days.
To start the year, there is no chance. I think it's far more likely Rutledge gets more playing time than Devers this year, but that it's far more likely Devers would get 20+ starts at 3b than Rutledge. I'd guess they wouldn't cut bait with Pablo until June. If Devers is tearing it up in AA, you call him up or buy a few more weeks with Holt/Rutledge. If not, you make a trade for a 3b. I can't see Holt or Rutledge filling in for much more than a few weeks, at least if we are still in the playoff hunt.
 

nothumb

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I really hope they've got some proprietary defensive data that makes Brock Holt being the everyday 3B a very solid option for a hopeful division winner. Or some SABRmetric magic indicating that Rutledge is the next Geronimo Berroa. Because anyone thinking of Panda as anything other than a last-ditch shot in the dark is fooling themselves. Like I said, its most akin to bringing in Grady Sizemore to compete for an OF spot in 2014 than anything else.
I'm a Panda skeptic but this is overkill. Sizemore hadn't played a game in 2 years and was 5 years removed from being even replacement level in the majors. Sandoval was a 3 win player for the Giants as recently as 2014 and, based on the nature of the injuries, has much better prospects for at least some level of bounceback. Depth charts and Steamer both like him for a league average bat and about 1 win over 500 PA, which obviously isn't good, but wouldn't kill you.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Sizemore was a reclamation project signed to a minor league deal who was only activated to the big league roster for opening day because a) he had a hot spring and b) multiple injuries opened a need on the roster. He wasn't signed with the intent of handing him a job.

Monster difference between that and expecting a guy in the middle of a long term deal to rebound from an injury to perform his job adequately. There is no comparison at all.
 

Cesar Crespo

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But that would leave our farm system in the bottom half of MLB. Especially after Benintendi loses prospect status. For shame, end of snarky sarcasm.
Without Ben10 and Devers, they have a top 50-60 prospect and 2 guys in the 80-150 range. That's a bottom 10 if not bottom 5 system. If somehow Sam Travis were to graduate too, it would make it that much worse (there's a 25% chance one of Travis/Devers graduates imo, the chance of both is under 5% and that's being too generous). Not that it matters greatly given all the young, cost controlled talent on the MLB roster. The success or lack thereof of Dalbec and Groome will have a huge impact on the farm systems health and future rankings going forward.

They have a few guys like Tyler Hill (age/level, he's still 20), Pedro Castellenos (1b, DH type), Lorenzo Cedrola (no power) etc that could break out but they all have their warts as well. There's also the chance someone already in the top 15 like Roniel Raudes adds a couple miles to his fastball, and/or further improves his control and command. Or that Michael Chavis figures it all out. The farm system could get pretty ugly though. Good chance it get worse before it gets better.
 
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IpswichSox

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In the Whole Body Cryogenic Sauna, we shock the outer layer of your skin with extreme cold temperatures. Your body responds by speeding up to literally “warm you up,” revving your metabolism.
So what's happening here is that cryotherapy is really just a metabolic boost to jump-start fat-burning? Not knocking it, just curious. Can it help him hit right-handed?
 
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Devizier

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So what's happening here is that cryotherapy is really just a metabolic boost to jump-start fat-burning? Not knocking it, just curious. Can it help him hit right-handed?
I mean, you can just stand in a cold room for that effect, which is pretty minor.

Cryotherapy can literally freeze fat cells (which are more temperature sensitive than other cells), causing them to die, though.

Not sure that's a good idea.
 

reggiecleveland

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Is the 242 his weight?

SIde note. It is gold mine to get a pro athlete to try your snake oil. A guy I know had a treadmill you could skate on, or at least kinda skate on. He got positive reviews from some NHL guys, and then Pavel Bure tried it and liked it. For two summers he printed money, and sold it during the second summer. The next year guys started reporting knee pain, and it may be dead for all I know.
 

Reggie's Racquet

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Is the 242 his weight?

SIde note. It is gold mine to get a pro athlete to try your snake oil. A guy I know had a treadmill you could skate on, or at least kinda skate on. He got positive reviews from some NHL guys, and then Pavel Bure tried it and liked it. For two summers he printed money, and sold it during the second summer. The next year guys started reporting knee pain, and it may be dead for all I know.
That's just his head.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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-242? That would kill him. Creates cap space, but still.
No, it wouldn't. That's how it works.

http://nymag.com/thecut/2015/01/cryotherapy-machine-kryolife.html

I'm on mobile or would pull a quote, sorry. It's the temperature of the air that is being released into the chamber. You only stay in for a couple minutes. The article linked the author went into -264 chamber.

Edit:

Ok, here's some quotes:

“You may now start to hyperventilate and shiver uncontrollably,” I hear. Other than undergarments, I am wearing nothing but athletic socks and clogs on my feet, raw-wool mittens on my hands, and a post-concussive expression on my face. I am ensconced in a shoulder-height cauldron spewing nitrogen-iced air at minus-264 degrees Fahrenheit.
.
.
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A full minute into my deep freeze, I am neither hyperventilating nor convulsing, just feeling numb from the waist down. At these extreme temperatures, allegedly, the air no longer contains moisture, so cold does not penetrate the skin like it does in, say, Siberia; according to Fryben, three minutes or less in here is safer than a hot sauna. To distract myself from the cold that is penetrating, as I peer down from my perch inside what looks like an open-topped Coke can, I chat up Fryben like an undermedicated child: “Should I be standing very still?”; “Do you normally talk people through the three minutes?” I am short of breath. Words are coming out, but my face is not really moving.
 
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Scoots McBoots

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According to Farrell, Pablo is considering the WBC:

According to Farrell, the third baseman is considering playing for his native Venezuela in the upcoming WBC. Considering Sandoval is coming off a serious shoulder injury, and he has to still compete for the starting job at third, such a scenario wasn’t really on anyone’s radar.

“I think that’ll probably garner more discussion because those three weeks, the potential of those three weeks in a situation where you’re competing for a job is important,” Farrell said. “We don’t want to stand in a player’s way if there’s not a pending health situation. Granted he went through a shoulder surgery last May. Still, that would be in discussion if that were to come up.”
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2017/01/19/pablo-sandoval-inexplicably-thinking-about-playing-in-world-baseball-classic/
 

glasspusher

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That -242 on the readout better be in Fahrenheit and not Celsius, otherwise the air coming out would be a liquid , although there's always the Leidenfrost Effect, I suppose.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Looks HWP to David Ortiz. Hopefully Pablo stays committed because he still can't afford to gain 25 pounds during a 162 game season which is usually his problem. Still, definitely a positive and way better than last year when he reported to camp at worse than end of season weight.
 

nvalvo

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Nice piece from Tomase on WEEI about how Sandoval has been working out with the Venezuelan team, and talking hitting with Miguel Cabrera, which seems like a good idea.

But what was strange was that the issue Tomase identified was that Sandoval was getting pull happy as a RHH, which I don't see in the spray charts at all.
 

simplicio

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Those spray charts cover him as both a LHH and RHH; as the article mentions he went 2 for 41 as a RHH in 2015 before giving it up and spending the rest of the season as a LHH.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Nice piece from Tomase on WEEI about how Sandoval has been working out with the Venezuelan team, and talking hitting with Miguel Cabrera, which seems like a good idea.

But what was strange was that the issue Tomase identified was that Sandoval was getting pull happy as a RHH, which I don't see in the spray charts at all.
Looking at his splits, for 2015 his batted balls as a RHH went 34.5% pull, 48.3% center, 17.2% oppo. Compare that to his career numbers as a RHH in SF: 38.2, 35.2, 26.5. So "pull-happy" in this case translates to balls that would normally be going the other way ending up in center. And you can see this in the spray chart. Compare that vs. L version to the same chart from 2012-14, and you can see that with the Giants he had a noticeably greater tendency to go to RF with fly balls vs. LHP.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Spray charts tell only part of the hitting approach story, though, right? You don't see the number of pitches he pulls weakly foul or swings through trying to pull, the kind of pitches where you think as a batter, "Crap, I need to let that get deeper and go oppo instead of rolling over it."
 

nvalvo

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Those spray charts cover him as both a LHH and RHH; as the article mentions he went 2 for 41 as a RHH in 2015 before giving it up and spending the rest of the season as a LHH.
Oh, of course. It's not broken down by his handedness, only the pitchers' handedness. I knew I must have missed something, because it's not like Victor Rodriguez is going to be wrong about that.
 

MikeM

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And fwiw, "svelte" isn't a word I would use to describe his physique.
Yeah, this whole "amazing transformation" narrative is definitely getting a little carried away with things imo. Especially now that we are passing the carefully-scripted-presentation-only stage.

The extra fluff about how he's looking to improve his hitting is nice and all, but at this point I'm just anxiously waiting to see what his defense is looking like once the games start. Which essentially is going to be the make or break factor there.
 

joe dokes

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Yeah, this whole "amazing transformation" narrative is definitely getting a little carried away with things imo. Especially now that we are passing the carefully-scripted-presentation-only stage.

The extra fluff about how he's looking to improve his hitting is nice and all, but at this point I'm just anxiously waiting to see what his defense is looking like once the games start. Which essentially is going to be the make or break factor there.
I'd like to see someone talk about his recovery from shoulder surgery, instead of how he looks naked.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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He looks more athletic than David Ortiz at least. And that's a vast improvement over any other point in his Red Sox career.
He's done everything I'd imagine he needed to do in the offseason to get ready. That alone is encouraging in light of where we were a year ago. I'm looking forward to a Hanley type resurrection this summer. It would make for a pretty neat story if it happens two years in a row.
 

Al Zarilla

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He's done everything I'd imagine he needed to do in the offseason to get ready.
Did he get on the Tom Brady diet? I don't even know if that's available or even public. I'll believe it when I see him get through a whole season at less than 235, which I think was his best weight/shape with the Giants. That's still a lot for a guy 5'11.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Did he get on the Tom Brady diet? I don't even know if that's available or even public. I'll believe it when I see him get through a whole season at less than 235, which I think was his best weight/shape with the Giants. That's still a lot for a guy 5'11.
No doubt. But he's ours and there's nothing we can do about it. If we dreamed a scenario as to how he'd show up, early and in shape would be all we would have asked for. He's done that, so I'm hoping for a good season.
 

timlinin8th

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Superbowl is over somebody has to be in "best shape ever".

Up next:

"has added a (insert name of new pitch) to his repertoire

Looking to bounce back
The Cy Kelly "new slider" story has already been floated.
Expecting an obligatory Carlos Quentin bounceback article any day now... Then we get down to who shows up early for spring training, and the sportswriters favorite article bashing those who merely show up on time.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Expecting an obligatory Carlos Quentin bounceback article any day now... Then we get down to who shows up early for spring training, and the sportswriters favorite article bashing those who merely show up on time.
Don't forget the story killing the guy who has Visa problems. That's coming. Next executive order will probably target guys with "u" in their last name.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Did he get on the Tom Brady diet? I don't even know if that's available or even public. I'll believe it when I see him get through a whole season at less than 235, which I think was his best weight/shape with the Giants. That's still a lot for a guy 5'11.
Maybe I'm terrible at judging weight, but he looks bigger than 235. Papi was listed at 6'3 230lbs so maybe. Papi also looked like he had far more muscle mass than Panda too though. I guess where fat weighs less, he could be 235. Still, he's clearly in better shape than last year but the pictures earlier this off season were more flattering.

edit: Maybe I'm focusing too much on the picture where he's hunched over with a bat. It'll make anyone look fat.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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He's also at least 4 inches taller. So using him as a Panda body size comp seems problematic.
Yeah, and that's a huge thing but I'm also guessing Papi was considerably bigger than 230 pounds. I'm still optimistic of a bounce back to average or at least slightly below. Just less now than I was a month or two ago. The shirtless picture of him he looks good, so hopefully it's just angles playing tricks on the eyes.
 

reggiecleveland

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Crowd estimates from the White House are more accurate than listed heights and weights. When I go to NBA games I like to see the staircase of guys listed at the same height. In baseball there are a lot of 5-10 guys listed at 6 feet, a lot of 250lb guys listed at 225. Big guys often want to be listed as a bit smaller to limit talk about size being the reason for success. Kareem insisted Ralph Sampson was 2-3 inches taller than he was.

 
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Cesar Crespo

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Kevin Garnett always insisted on being 6'13. WAG but I'd peg Pablo at 250 lbs looking at those pictures.