NBA offseason thread

HomeRunBaker

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nattysez said:

 

 
 
Dallas gets good enough to stay out of the top 7 and the Nets get a bit worse.  Win-win.
I love this offseason as a Celtics fan. It's about as good as one could expect unless you have been on the "But but but the Celtics haven't had cap room before just you wait and see!" train.
 

bowiac

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nattysez said:
Dallas gets good enough to stay out of the top 7 and the Nets get a bit worse.  Win-win.
I think Dallas was probably already good enough to stay out of the top 7. There's enough talentless teams in the NBA that Dirk, Parsons, and Wes Mathews were going to be enough to stay out of there.
 
This moves Dallas to 43 wins and Brooklyn to 26 in my numbers.
 

Devizier

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HomeRunBaker said:
I love this offseason as a Celtics fan. It's about as good as one could expect unless you have been on the "But but but the Celtics haven't had cap room before just you wait and see!" train.
 
The draft was the only sucky part, but that's just because nobody slid to the Celtics' range.
 

Vegas Sox Fan

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It's really an incredible set of circumstances. Typically when teams trade away multiple future first round pick they have no incentive to tank in the near future. But somehow Brooklyn ends up with ownership issues and is in the position to tank without their own picks. Amazing. 
 

moondog80

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So what does Brooklyn get out of "hey, I want you to let me be a free agent but still pay all of my salary"?
 

bowiac

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moondog80 said:
So what does Brooklyn get out of "hey, I want you to let me be a free agent but still pay all of my salary"?
I would expect they're not going to pay the full salary.
 

Cellar-Door

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Vegas Sox Fan said:
It's really an incredible set of circumstances. Typically when teams trade away multiple future first round pick they have no incentive to tank in the near future. But somehow Brooklyn ends up with ownership issues and is in the position to tank without their own picks. Amazing. 
Well even at the time everyone wondered if they were going to be in the situation of having overpaid aging players with no picks. Once they traded the picks I actually think what they are doing this offseason is fairly smart. They are trying to keep the younger guys who will still be good in 2-3 years and sign a bunch of former high picks who might break out while dumping the long terrible contracts. Get out from under the threat of the repeater tax and carve out cap room without totally gutting the roster LAL style.
 
moondog80 said:
So what does Brooklyn get out of "hey, I want you to let me be a free agent but still pay all of my salary"?
Buyout is usually 70% or less. Then they can stretch it, spreading it over 5 years. Probably brings it down to 5.5-6M a year. That alone might get them out of the tax this year, avoiding the massive penalties of the repeater tax, and getting 17M or so off the cap next year too. Only real cost is under 6M in cap space in 2017-19.
 

DannyDarwinism

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bowiac said:
I think Dallas was probably already good enough to stay out of the top 7. There's enough talentless teams in the NBA that Dirk, Parsons, and Wes Mathews were going to be enough to stay out of there.
 
This moves Dallas to 43 wins and Brooklyn to 26 in my numbers.
 
I think people here were significantly overestimating both the threat of, and the potentially efficacy of the Mavs tanking after the Jordan fiasco based mainly on what seems to be a dramatic off-the-cuff remark by Cuban to a radio station.  
 

moondog80

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Cellar-Door said:
Well even at the time everyone wondered if they were going to be in the situation of having overpaid aging players with no picks. Once they traded the picks I actually think what they are doing this offseason is fairly smart. They are trying to keep the younger guys who will still be good in 2-3 years and sign a bunch of former high picks who might break out while dumping the long terrible contracts. Get out from under the threat of the repeater tax and carve out cap room without totally gutting the roster LAL style.
 
Buyout is usually 70% or less. Then they can stretch it, spreading it over 5 years. Probably brings it down to 5.5-6M a year. That alone might get them out of the tax this year, avoiding the massive penalties of the repeater tax, and getting 17M or so off the cap next year too. Only real cost is under 6M in cap space in 2017-19.
Supposedly he's only getting 25 mil out of 43, I had no idea it was the much. In MLB anyway, isn't that the kind of thing the same union would never allow?
 

Cellar-Door

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moondog80 said:
Supposedly he's only getting 25 mil out of 43, I had no idea it was the much. In MLB anyway, isn't that the kind of thing the same union would never allow?
I think the NBPA is fine with it because the player usually initiates it. If a team tried to force a player into taking a buyout the Union would get involved, but for the most part they don't care if you voluntarily give up money to become a Free agent, since they see it as you giving up some money to get what you want.
 

moondog80

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Cellar-Door said:
I think the NBPA is fine with it because the player usually initiates it. If a team tried to force a player into taking a buyout the Union would get involved, but for the most part they don't care if you voluntarily give up money to become a Free agent, since they see it as you giving up some money to get what you want.
Right, but that's pretty similar to A-Rod's situation when he tried to cone to Boston, which of course was squashed by the union.
 

Cellar-Door

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moondog80 said:
Right, but that's pretty similar to A-Rod's situation when he tried to cone to Boston, which of course was squashed by the union.
Well a trade is different to me at least, in the NBA you can't give back money in a trade either.
I wonder what the MLB union would say if a guy asked to be allowed to be bought out in return for skipping waivers and being free to negotiate with whoever they want. So for example a pitcher in his last year who wanted to go to a particular WS contender, normally he'd never make it through waivers, but the team buys him out and he becomes a FA.
 

amarshal2

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Cellar-Door said:
Well a trade is different to me at least, in the NBA you can't give back money in a trade either.
I wonder what the MLB union would say if a guy asked to be allowed to be bought out in return for skipping waivers and being free to negotiate with whoever they want. So for example a pitcher in his last year who wanted to go to a particular WS contender, normally he'd never make it through waivers, but the team buys him out and he becomes a FA.
Right. A key component is that he's now able to sign another contract that can account for some/all of his losses on the original. ARod was cutting salary on his existing contract with no ability to make up for it.
 

ishmael

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Very few NBA buyouts have given back more than $1-2 million. For a massive contract like Deron's, maybe the Nets save $4-5M, which (combined with the stretch provision) will save the new owners 10s of millions of dollars in luxury tax payments.
 

Cellar-Door

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ishmael said:
Very few NBA buyouts have given back more than $1-2 million. For a massive contract like Deron's, maybe the Nets save $4-5M, which (combined with the stretch provision) will save the new owners 10s of millions of dollars in luxury tax payments.
They're saving something between 13 and 17M in salary and much more in tax.
 

moly99

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It's a bit surprising to listen to Nets fans who think they will be a playoff lock next year now that their "locker room cancer" is gone.
 
1) Deron was a huge disappointment for $20 mil per season, but I never got the sense that he was actually torpedoing their team behind the scenes.
2) He was actually in better shape in Brooklyn than he was in Utah. His career has been hammered by injuries, not laziness.
 

radsoxfan

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3) The Nets PG depth chart is now Jack, Blake, and Larkin.
 
Williams was a disappointment to be sure, but hard to imagine the Nets improving by splitting his minutes amongst those 3.
 
 
This team in general is pretty terrible.  Look at those guards!  A Brook Lopez injury and they are one of the 3 worst teams in the league. 
 
 
http://espn.go.com/nba/team/depth/_/name/bkn/brooklyn-nets
 

Jed Zeppelin

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moly99 said:
It's a bit surprising to listen to Nets fans who think they will be a playoff lock next year now that their "locker room cancer" is gone.
 
1) Deron was a huge disappointment for $20 mil per season, but I never got the sense that he was actually torpedoing their team behind the scenes.
2) He was actually in better shape in Brooklyn than he was in Utah. His career has been hammered by injuries, not laziness.
People underestimate what happens when you lose a 30 minute player and replace those minutes by trying to stretch bench guys beyond their abilities. So the Nets might look like they "play harder" this season but I would be shocked if they aren't a worse team for it.
 

HomeRunBaker

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worm0082 said:
It's sad watching him bounce around from team to team every year like this at the end.   I was hoping to see a Celtics logo in the collage somewhere. 
Pierce never planned on the DC stop. Doc offered him a deal using the Clippers MLE but Pierce was waiting to see what Brooklyn was doing and he didn't want to leave KG there alone. By the time he realized what Brooklyn was doing Doc had already gone on to Plan B. The Clippers always was the natural landing spot for Pierce.....it's home, his coach is there, and they have needed a 3 for three seasons now. Unfortunately aside from some playoff heroics Pierce is pretty much toast at this point. No first step, zero lift, lost his quickness and speed.
 

Blacken

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RGREELEY33 said:
Sac-town closing in on signing Andrea Bargnani. I suppose they could use a shooter, but yikes.
Don't be dumb. They're signing him for his ability to score inside.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9dX6IhU2tM
 

dabombdig

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ifmanis5 said:
OKC matched for Kanter. $70 million dollars for Enes Kanter. Puts the Thunder over the lux tax threshold as well.
So they go to the max for Kanter but didn't for Harden? No I don't want the Rib Eye but I would love the Spam for the same price.
 

bowiac

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BigSoxFan said:
And they're trying to give Durant a reason to stick around. Can't go cheap now.
This is a bit paradoxical, but some of the question about how smart this signing is has to do with how smart they are. I think Kanter is worse than each of Adams/McGary (pretty much regardless of matchup), but he's also not totally hopeless. If they're going to be smart enough to bench Kanter if he's not improving, then it's a fine chance to take given the cap situation they're in. If on the other hand, they're going to "go down with the ship" behind him (because they're paying him so much and because they traded assets for him), then this isn't a great move.
 

nighthob

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dabombdig said:
So they go to the max for Kanter but didn't for Harden? No I don't want the Rib Eye but I would love the Spam for the same price.
Well Kanter is likely to face the same fate at the trade deadline if they can find the right deal. In any event re-signing Harden would have put them in the repeat offender category, whereas Kanter is a one year thing.
 

jscola85

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They could have maneuvered to avoid the repeater with Harden, especially with the cap rising.  The problem mainly was that they didn't know the cap was going to explode like it will - most owners thought the new TV revenue would get phased in more gradually.
 

Nick Kaufman

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If we do get Gallinari, I think it would be fair to say that we ve transformed ourselves into an Eastern version of the post-Carmelo Nuggets.
 

bowiac

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There's been some scuttle about that for a bit - I keep wondering if Denver would bite on Bradley as a centerpiece. I don't have a good sense of Gallinari's value around the league these days. Would something like Bradley, the Celtics first rounder this year, and James Young be enough, or is that obviously too little?
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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bowiac said:
There's been some scuttle about that for a bit - I keep wondering if Denver would bite on Bradley as a centerpiece. I don't have a good sense of Gallinari's value around the league these days. Would something like Bradley, the Celtics first rounder this year, and James Young be enough, or is that obviously too little?
 
I suspect that's probably about right. Injury history coupled with pending free agency and I think that makes sense. 
 

bowiac

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Given my loathing of Avery Bradley, and the team's need for someone other than Jae Crowder to play SF, I think that would be a great move for the Celtics.
 

Tony C

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Heh....that's pretty good. And screw Mark Cuban, anyway...such a pouty entitled whiner.
 

bowiac

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BigSoxFan said:
May be fair value but I wouldn't touch that deal. The Celtics shouldn't be giving up their first rounder for the likes of a Gallinari.
In my delusion (see this post), the Celtics are picking around ~22nd right now. I don't think their first rounder is worth that much.
 

Drocca

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Either way it's a safe bet that they are picking past the 12th spot, which Gallinari is certainly an upgrade from. Those teen picks are mostly garbage filler, and when they do pan out it's often not even on the team that drafted them.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Drocca said:
Those teen picks are mostly garbage filler, and when they do pan out it's often not even on the team that drafted them.
Except for Terry Rozier and RJ Hunter, of course. [emoji1]
 

mcpickl

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BigSoxFan said:
May be fair value but I wouldn't touch that deal. The Celtics shouldn't be giving up their first rounder for the likes of a Gallinari.
I'd for sure give it up.
 
Ainge wouldn't give it up without protection, and the Celtics will very likely have a better pick from Brooklyn, and possibly another from Dallas.
 
If they could get Gallinari for their pick and Bradley as the main components of a deal, I'd do it in a second.
 

Devizier

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Not that the packages you guys are proposing are all that much, but when it comes to durability, Gallinari makes Kevin Love look like Robert Parrish.
 

bowiac

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BigSoxFan said:
This could still be a bottom 10 team, in my opinion. Lots of mediocre talent that may or may not mesh well. This isn't a trade I do before the season but might consider later on if they look like a decent playoff team.
That's fair. As I've said elsewhere, I believe in the talent a fair amount, so I don't think that kind of regression is in the cards barring a lot of injuries, but holding out for some kind of top-10 protection would be sensible (even if it risks Denver passing on the totally made-up-deal).