NBA Lottery Game Thread
- Thread starter Ed Hillel
- Start date
My math could be way off, but I believe the chances of draft order being same as lottery position is something like 0.02%
It could worse Celtics fans: you could be a nuggets fan, the only team that has never moved up in the lottery.
More proof this thing is rigged.
More proof this thing is rigged.
Actually AB is the quality player I'd most be willing to trade since we have so many guards and Rozier's game is pretty close to his.
I thought the same thing at first. But then I thought - he's our only reliable shooter. Not sure they can afford to lose him.
Only three lottery spots are chosen. So the odds of the draft going chalk as it did were (Odds that PHI gets the #1) x (Odds that LAL gets the #2) x (Odds the BOS gets 3).
(.269) x (.188) x (.156) = 0.0078, or 0.78%
Unlikely, yes, but still the most likely of all possible outcomes.
Lemons to lemonade: we're adding the third overall pick to a playoff team. We could have done much MUCH worse.
My initial thought was trade the pick but my gut tells me there's not gonna be anyone available better than Hield.
My initial thought was trade the pick but my gut tells me there's not gonna be anyone available better than Hield.
It's actually higher, since the .188 and .156 make up a higher proportion of the balls after the first and second picks, respectively.
That's not even right, because once Philly gets the #1 pick, LA's probability of being #2 increases. And when LA gets #2, Boston's probability of #3 goes up.
Ah, yes, that makes sense. I was thinking odds of everyone staying in their draft slot, but that's absurd.
Interesting situation with Philly and LA. Simmons will certainly want LA and his camp will be putting pressure on Philly. Ingram is probably a better fit for Philly anyways but they'll want an asset to trade Simmons. And they already have LA's pick. I'd go for something like Okafor/#1 for Russell/#2. See how bad LA wants Simmons.
Guessing there are a certain amount of 1s, 2s, 3s, etc. in the machine but i may be wrong
So I believe the odds of staying in the order of finish are: .269 x .199/(1.0-.250) x .156(1.0 - .250 - .199) = .0202. That is about a 2% chance unless there is an error in my construct.
Actually the odds are minimally different than that, since if the 76ers got the pick via the Kings, the odds for the 2nd and 3rd pick would change to:
.269 x .199/(1.0 - .019) x .156/(1.0 - .019 - .199)=.0107 or ~1% chance
Since the 76ers would still keep their chances to take the 2nd pick in which case it would have gone to the Kings.
However, that will not move the needle much since there is only a 1.9% chance of the 1% happening from the start.
.269 x .199/(1.0 - .019) x .156/(1.0 - .019 - .199)=.0107 or ~1% chance
Since the 76ers would still keep their chances to take the 2nd pick in which case it would have gone to the Kings.
However, that will not move the needle much since there is only a 1.9% chance of the 1% happening from the start.
Last edited:
- The hopper has 14 balls (numbered 1-14), and they pull 4 balls for each draw.
- Draws are combinations, not permutations (1,2,3,4 and 1,3,4,2 are the same)
- Combos are assigned to teams in draft order and ascending numerical order, so basically Philly had all the combos with "1" and LA all remaining combos with "2"
- Combos that select a team already picked are discarded and re-drawn
So: By the time of the 3rd pick, all combos involving 1 or 2 are ineligible so those balls can be removed from the hopper. All the eligible "3s" belonged to the Cs, so of the 11 remaining balls, a "3" would guarantee Cs pick 3rd.
Got it. Thanks. I was thinking they'd just have 3 hoppers with 10 balls each.
This is correct (well, close enough). The actual answer is 1.878%.
Philly had a 25.0% chance of winning.
Given that Philly won the #1 pick, LA had a 26.5% chance of winning the #2 pick.
Given Philly/LA went 1/2, Boston had a 28.3% chance of winning the #3 pick.
Odds of 1/2/3 are 1.878%.
But wouldn't the odds change as the draft progressed? I mean, the odds of Boston getting the 3rd pick would shift each time the Philly combos and LA combos were removed, wouldnt they? I may be misreading what you are saying, but the odds you give assume no combinations have been removed and represent the draft before it begins. As it begins and combinations are withdrawn from consideration, Boston's odds of getting the third pick would increase.
Wouldn't this alter the odds? But then again, I may very well be full of crap and simply missing your point. That would not surprise me either.
Wouldn't this alter the odds? But then again, I may very well be full of crap and simply missing your point. That would not surprise me either.
Just nitpicking a bit, but Philly had a 26.9% chance of winning. The extra 1.9% was via the Kings 1st pick chances (Philly could switch picks with them in that case)
Could be reading it wrong, but I think those odds adjust after combos have been removed. Or rather, they are the adjusted odds.