NBA Finals Thread

Devizier

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Game 1 is Thursday @ 9PM EST
 
ESPN's panel is split on their picks (12-6) in favor of the Spurs winning.
 
Some notes:
 
MIA and SA are 12th and 14th, respectively, in team offensive rating for the playoffs. They were the 5th (MIA) and 6th (SA) ranked teams during the regular season.
 
On the other hand, MIA and SA are 5th and 3rd, respectively, in team defensive rating in the playoffs, after coming in 11th (MIA) and 3rd (SA) during the regular season.
 
Miami played slow ball during the regular season (27th in the league with 91.2 pace) but are even slower in the playoffs (last among teams with an 85.5 pace). San Antonio plays a little faster, but I would expect some slow down, half court basketball in this series. Just for reference, last year's finals was played at a slow pace (88.1 possessions per game).
 
 
 
 
ElUno20

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To me this is the spurs series to lose. The heat are just old and slowed down enough to truly make this a battle of execution. And i kind of feel like lebron being lebron, statically all around games, plays into the spurs hands. Its that next level they cant handle. When he gets in the high 30s with all the other stuff.
 
DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I don't know what the Heat can do here.   Even if Parker is hurt, the Spurs can trot out Mills who will do a serviceable job.  But who do they key on to shut down?   Ginobli?  Ok, have a healthy dose of Kawahi Leonard.  Leonard?  Ginobli will torch them.  And while Duncan is nearer to the end, the guy can still be a beast down low for Bosh and Birdman, Birdman.   That's without mentioning Boris Doublewide Diaw and Danny Green who can each do damage if they are left alone.   
 
Defensively, the Spurs are even more impressive as they have multiple guys who can cover LeBron well enough (Leonard and Green) and Duncan and Splitter holding down the interior.  
 
That said, LeBron James is the best player in the universe and I wouldn't count him out just yet.  He is gunning for greatness and he knows it.  I think this goes seven games and I actually expect all of the games to be much closer than last year.
 
Kliq

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Belinelli has at least one moment where his performance swings one game. He is the one significant difference between the Spurs team from last year and now, and he gives them an additional ballhandler/shooter that Miami can't leave open.
 
DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Blacken said:
This is amazing.
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I edited out my stupidity.  But it will live on for eternity in your post.
 
I just had another thought.  I think the Jasmine Forsythe development is really going to have a huge impact on this series.  Spurs in four.
 
jon abbey

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
 
I edited out my stupidity.  But it will live on for eternity in your post.
 
I just had another thought.  I think the Jasmine Forsythe development is really going to have a huge impact on this series.  Spurs in four.
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It's really going to help those Celtics picks also after it took out Brooklyn tonight.
 
Mugthis

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I haven't been able to decide. Last year was 50/50 between the two, but the Spurs have HCA and are a little better. Many argue that the Heat areworse than last year, but I think the present Heat team going into the finals is superior to last year's team going into the finals. The Heat in the playoffs last year were not the same team that won 27-games in a row, especially after their grueling 2-round series against Chicago and Indiana, which included a banged up Wade and an already declining Battier (Battier fell off a cliff during the playoffs last year). The only loss/decline of significance for the Heat is Mike Miller, which I think is made-up for with a healthier Wade, a better-shooting Bosh, and any additional confidence gained by LeBron and the team after winning a second time (hey, even if "confidence" is only worth 1 point, that could be decisive!) The Heat's inarguable ability to adjust their level of play depending on the situation makes me additionally skeptical of the meaning of their team-wide decline this season.
 
That said, the Spurs are great, smart, confident, and have home court, and basically tied for the trophy last year. 
 
I guess I'll go with Heat in 7, with LeBron taking over Game 7 on the road (he seems his best in hostile road environments). Here's my super-sophisicated probability of each outcome:
 
Heat in 7: 30%
Spurs in 7: 29%
Heat in 6: 20%
Spurs in 6: 15%
Spurs in 5: 3%
Heat in 5: 2%
Heat in 4: 1%
Spurs in 4: ~0%
 
Nice hedge! 
 
HomeRunBaker

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It's pretty simple to me.

San Antonio has the better Team.
Miami has LeBron.

The series will be won/lost based on Bosh and Wade's production or LeBron simply being superhuman. The ball is in Miami's court.
 
HomeRunBaker

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BigSoxFan said:
Spurs in 6 as they follow the 2008 Celtics model. They'll take the first 2 games. Miami will take Game 3. Spurs take Game 4. Miami avoids elimination in Game 5. And the Spurs win Game 6 in resounding fashion.
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That's a gutsy prediction having the road team win the final 3 games including the last one in resounding fashion. I have a hard time seeing LeBron losing an elimination game at home.
 
HomeRunBaker

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BigSoxFan said:
Spurs in 6 as they follow the 2008 Celtics model. They'll take the first 2 games. Miami will take Game 3. Spurs take Game 4. Miami avoids elimination in Game 5. And the Spurs win Game 6 in resounding fashion.
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That's a gutsy prediction having the road team win the final 3 games including the last one in resounding fashion. I have a hard time seeing LeBron losing an elimination game at home.
 
Ed Hillel

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I wish one of the refs had the balls to call LBJ for a carry on that dunk.
 
cardiacs

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Ed Hillel said:
I wish one of the refs had the balls to call LBJ for a carry on that dunk.
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And a travel. 
 
And also, how about Lewis clearing Manu out of bounds just now? 
 
luckiestman

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I thought james was fouled when  he was crying but not by Kaua'i Leonard earlier
 
lars10

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My anti-Heat bias is keeping me from posting because I'm seeing a lot of hacks by the Heat that aren't getting called...but I think Lebron and Co. just automatically have me seeing red.
 
jon abbey

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Great half, I am surprised every time Allen or Manu misses an open 3. 
 
jon abbey

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AC being out has to favor the deeper team also, how ridiculous is that to happen during a NBA Finals game? Did their check bounce? 
 
lars10

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jon abbey said:
AC being out has to favor the deeper team also, how ridiculous is that to happen during a NBA Finals game? Did their check bounce? 
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Is the ghost of Red working for the Spurs?
 
lars10

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hikeeba said:
Tim Duncan must have the most powerful fingers known to man!
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It's a good call.  Breen and Van Gundy say it is!
 
edit: and I'm glad we keep going back for that in depth reporting about the AC!
 
The Social Chair

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That was a foul. You have to let the shooter land. They started to call it this season to prevent bad injuries.
 
Devizier

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Duncan stepped into Bosh as he was landing. Don't know a league where that isn't a foul. Atypical for Duncan, but always fun to see the who me face (iPhone just tried to correct to "whine face" also appropriate).
 
lars10

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The Social Chair said:
That was a foul. You have to let the shooter land. They started to call it this season to prevent bad injuries.
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I think you're right...just hate how almost every call is followed by 'that's a good call' by Breen.
 
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