Napoli Hunt

[Tyrone Biggums]

 
I mean it isn't like Napoli is a big time bat.  You are talking about a guy who put up .842 OPS.
 
If this team wins again it will be based off have a deep line up, a deep rotation , and a deep bullpen.  Not flooding the team with all stars,  Using a guy like Carp and Nava increases the depth of your team and flexibility especially when you have a full time DH.
 
I don't think the team is likely to repeat.  I think it is extremely tough to repeat.  But if it is going to want to stay competitive over the next six years it needs to take some chances with rookies and pickups like Carp.  That is how they built 2004 team, 2007 team and 2013 team.

I have no issues with starting rookies at all. I already have JBJ and X penciled in and WMB as the 3B. On a contending team you have to have a mix of veterans and youngsters. If you add in say Lavarnway or Butler at C and Carp at 1B then you have 5 unproven players starting every day providing protection to 39 year old David Ortiz and Pedroia.

I get that it's hard to repeat and chances are good that they won't. But you have to figure that they aren't going to run out the 2013 Pawtucket Red Sox/Portland Sea Dogs opening day lineups with Ortiz and Pedroia sprinkling in. We're expecting way too much out of Carp and Nava to make them every day players and expecting them to play better than 2013. It's certainly possible with Carp due to his age. But how much are you willing to risk on the kids? Two thirds of your lineup will either be a LF platoon (maybe Brentz eventually) and the other 5 unproven youngsters. Surrounded by 34 year old Victorino, 30 year old Pedroia and 39 year old David Ortiz. Ease these guys in. You have nothing to lose but money by giving Hart a chance to play first over Carp.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

 
I mean it isn't like Napoli is a big time bat.  You are talking about a guy who put up .842 OPS.
 

 
Napoli's 842 OPS left him tied with Evan Longoria for 13th in the AL, ahead of Prince Fielder and just behind Jose Bautista. Cano and Choo are the only free agents with bigger time bats.

 

[IdiotKicker]

Isn't that where there is value too?

 
Absolutely.  The issue with 2014 construction is that you have a number of question marks, and it may make sense to pay for certainty on some of them if you can get reasonable deals.  It's really about picking and choosing where you do this.  That's all roster construction really is.

 

[KillerBs]

 
Yeah this is kind of the direction I'm leaning in.  Napoli, for all of his streakiness, has a pretty good track record, and you know what you're going to get.  Carp, while I do think has the potential to put up similar production, also does have some question marks in his resume.  They're pretty easily explained, but there's still more uncertainty there.

 
That sounds intuitively correct, but I wonder if the striking increase in Napoli's K rate over the last 2 years calls that premise into question. Even aside from the hip, the risk of a Napoli collapse is far from negligible. Indeed I would surmise that the odds of Napoli declining to near or below replacement level is about equal to the odds of Carp doing so. The track record of 31 year old players who have struck out at near the rate Napoli has in the last 2 years is not exactly promising.
 
It is not to say that I wouldn't want Napoli back, I do. But only a two year deal max.
 
I know it's unfair, but when I think of Napoli on a 3 year deal, I keep having flashbacks of Mike Lowell in 2010.

 

[Plympton91]

Mike Morse could be another name that gets thrown into the ring with Corey Hart as a possible reclamation project who pairs well with Carp at 1B and who can play corner outfield if no one else is available.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I know it's dangerous to take this approach, but I just don't really see where else there's a job for Napoli other than maybe Milwaukee (who'd probably make sense but don't seem interested), the Marlins (who probably aren't serious in their interest and would need to do something about LoMo), the Rays (who aren't even considering it), and the Rockies (who seem to like Morneau better). Maybe someone out there likes him as a full-time DH, but those seem to be falling out of favor. And, for that matter, Napoli would have to actually agree to that in the first place. 

 

[nvalvo]

I have no issues with starting rookies at all. I already have JBJ and X penciled in and WMB as the 3B. On a contending team you have to have a mix of veterans and youngsters. If you add in say Lavarnway or Butler at C and Carp at 1B then you have 5 unproven players starting every day providing protection to 39 year old David Ortiz and Pedroia.

I get that it's hard to repeat and chances are good that they won't. But you have to figure that they aren't going to run out the 2013 Pawtucket Red Sox/Portland Sea Dogs opening day lineups with Ortiz and Pedroia sprinkling in. We're expecting way too much out of Carp and Nava to make them every day players and expecting them to play better than 2013. It's certainly possible with Carp due to his age. But how much are you willing to risk on the kids? Two thirds of your lineup will either be a LF platoon (maybe Brentz eventually) and the other 5 unproven youngsters. Surrounded by 34 year old Victorino, 30 year old Pedroia and 39 year old David Ortiz. Ease these guys in. You have nothing to lose but money by giving Hart a chance to play first over Carp.

 
Carp is 28, and has 3+ years of MLB service time. Nava is 30, and has 2+ years of service time. 
 
Position players, by service time, including departing FA who may return: 
 
Xander Bogaerts: 0.042
Jackie Bradley, Jr.: 0.059
Ryan Lavarnway: 1.040
Will Middlebrooks: 1.121
Daniel Nava: 2.066
Mike Carp: 3.010
Jacoby Ellsbury: 6.037 (FA)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia: 6.043 (FA)
Dustin Pedroia: 7.041
Mike Napoli: 7.151 (FA)
Shane Victorino: 8.092
Jonny Gomes: 8.097
David Ross: 11.001
David Ortiz: 15.048

 

[TOleary25]

 
If this team wins again it will be based off have a deep line up, a deep rotation , and a deep bullpen.  Not flooding the team with all stars,  Using a guy like Carp and Nava increases the depth of your team and flexibility especially when you have a full time DH.

 
I feel like relying on Carp or Nava in a full time role would be decreasing your depth. Carp is a great bat off the bench that most teams do not have. He would lessen the blow if a potential injury were to occur to any of the outfielders, Napoli, or Papi. Even if Carp can put up similar numbers to Napoli, isn't that a pretty good problem to have?
 
 

I know it's unfair, but when I think of Napoli on a 3 year deal, I keep having flashbacks of Mike Lowell in 2010.

 
Lowell was heading into his age 34 season while Napoli is heading into his age 32 season. I think the Sox would be okay with getting Lowell's 2006-08 production out of Napoli.

 

[IdiotKicker]

 
That sounds intuitively correct, but I wonder if the striking increase in Napoli's K rate over the last 2 years calls that premise into question. Even aside from the hip, the risk of a Napoli collapse is far from negligible. Indeed I would surmise that the odds of Napoli declining to near or below replacement level is about equal to the odds of Carp doing so. The track record of 31 year old players who have struck out at near the rate Napoli has in the last 2 years is not exactly promising.
 
It is not to say that I wouldn't want Napoli back, I do. But only a two year deal max.
 
I know it's unfair, but when I think of Napoli on a 3 year deal, I keep having flashbacks of Mike Lowell in 2010.

 
So this is really interesting to look at actually, and I hadn't taken that close of a look at Napoli's stats before this.
 
Napoli's 2013 numbers have some interesting shifts in them.  The first is that his O-swing% went up by about 3% and O-contact% went down by about 4%, suggesting that he's chasing a bit more and making less contact on pitches outside the zone.  This also corresponds with the 2% increase in his swinging strike percentage.  Despite this, he still maintained a walk rate pretty much in line with his career average.  Beyond that, his LD% actually spiked up to 24% from being in the 19% range historically, so when he was making contact, it was harder contact than before.  However, his FB% saw a slight drop, and his HR/FB also was the lowest its been since 2009, suggesting the opposite.
 
So what does all of this point to?
 
As much as I want to say otherwise, Napoli may be heading into a decline.  I would expect his LD% to normalize, and when that happens, it doesn't bode well for his BABIP.  The only thing that would counteract that is his O-swing% declining or his O-contact% increasing, which are not things that I'm going to count on given that they've been worsening for the past two years.  There may actually be a decent chance that you have as much variation in Napoli's production next year as you do in Carp's.  The question then becomes what do you get from Carp defensively, but I'm starting to lean in the direction of not bringing back Napoli unless it is on very favorable terms.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
I feel like relying on Carp or Nava in a full time role would be decreasing your depth. Carp is a great bat off the bench that most teams do not have. He would lessen the blow if a potential injury were to occur to any of the outfielders, Napoli, or Papi. Even if Carp can put up similar numbers to Napoli, isn't that a pretty good problem to have?

 
This seems to get overlooked an awful lot in these conversations, but Nava as a full-time player is EXACTLY what they got out of him in 2013.  He may have nominally been the strong side of a platoon, but with the additional time he got playing RF and 1B, he accumulated enough PA to qualify amongst the league leaders in rate stats like BA (10th) and OBP (5th).  I know we should expect some regression from him, but I'm not sure there's anything he did in 2013 that doesn't make him a perfectly viable candidate to be a "full time" player in 2014 as well.

 

[Kid T]

 
Carp is 28, and has 3+ years of MLB service time. Nava is 30, and has 2+ years of service time.

 
Looking at service time doesn't tell the full story.  In Carp's 3+ years of MLB service time, he has 851 PA's.  Nava, in his 2+ years has 1,041.
 
 
Nava has more experience as a full time player than Carp.  None of this provides any conclusive evidence that either can/can't produce if given a full time role, but neither has a long enough track record to provide a high level of confidence in predicting future performance. 

 

[TOleary25]

 
This seems to get overlooked an awful lot in these conversations, but Nava as a full-time player is EXACTLY what they got out of him in 2013.  

 
Yea my mistake, what I meant was relying on Carp AND Nava in full time roles would be reducing the depth of this team. They're each capable of taking on a full time role, but going into the season as currently constructed would leave the team pretty thin at 1B and OF. Based on rumors of who the Sox are interested in it seems the FO feels the same way.

 

[nvalvo]

 
Looking at service time doesn't tell the full story.  In Carp's 3+ years of MLB service time, he has 851 PA's.  Nava, in his 2+ years has 1,041.
 
 
Nava has more experience as a full time player than Carp.  None of this provides any conclusive evidence that either can/can't produce if given a full time role, but neither has a long enough track record to provide a high level of confidence in predicting future performance. 

 
Sure: but both have had success as everyday players before. 

 

[seantoo]

Seantoo:
I disagree.  Plenty has changed.  First, Napoli has shown not only the ability to play first, but to play it very well.  You don't think that's a factor in teams' valuation of him as a player?  I do.  Second, when the player is available absolutely makes a difference in the number of teams around that still have the available money to pay him.  They haven't filled roster spots and spent that money on other players yet.  Basic supply and demand.

His medical situation has not changed and I think that trumps the other valid points you bring up.

 

[Corsi]

Rosenthal:
 

Sources: #Rangers interested in Napoli even after acquiring Fielder. Envision Napoli 1B-DH, Beltre-Fielder-Napoli 3-4-5. #Marlins also in.
 
Napoli remains a priority for #RedSox, other sources say. His return would help compensate for offensive dropoff with Bradley in CF.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Rosenthal:
Napoli remains a priority for #RedSox, other sources say. His return would help compensate for offensive dropoff with Bradley in CF

Compensate? Napoli was here last year. Like saying I'll compensate for the booze I used for Thanksgiving by going to the stash in the garage. Not to shoot the messenger of course, Corsi.

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

Does the announced agreement by Cano with the M's take them out as Napoli suitors?
Does this now leave us competing just against the Rangers for Napoli's services?

 

[SaveBooFerriss]

Compensate? Napoli was here last year. Like saying I'll compensate for the booze I used for Thanksgiving by going to the stash in the garage. Not to shoot the messenger of course, Corsi.

 
The way I have heard it explained is that the Sox can absorb the offensive drop off at either 1B or CF, but not both.  If Napoli leaves, then they may try to get a big bat in the OF - presumably moving Vic T to CF.  I don't agree with that logic, but I think that is the point.     

 

[Corsi]

Sources: Napoli talks at critical stage. He wants to stay with #RedSox, but has offer from another club that Sox need to match or exceed.
 

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/408999945401028608

 

[Greg29fan]

The other offer is from Texas or Florida.

 

[Max Power]

If the Red Sox have to exceed the offer, he really doesn't want to stay here.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

If the Red Sox have to exceed the offer, he really doesn't want to stay here.

It says "match" or exceed.

Basically he has an offer that is probably substantially better, and we need to meet it or its gonna be to good to pass up.

 

[Puffy]

Does the announced agreement by Cano with the M's take them out as Napoli suitors?
Does this now leave us competing just against the Rangers for Napoli's services?

 
I could see the Mariners coveting Napoli's RH power to "protect" Cano in that lineup. I wouldn't be surprised if the Mariners made 2 or 3 other signings in that middle tier - Napoli, Garza, Cruz (ug).

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I'll add, considering the contracts that have been signed in the last 48 hours, it would be hard to are Napoli getting less than 3 years in the 45 (+/-) million range.

The market is just to insane right now.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

The other offer is from Texas or Florida.

I'd say Seattle. They seem like they're going for broke right now.

Let's see if they can spend money better than the Angels

 

[rembrat]

The other offer is from Texas or Florida.

 
And It's most likely something crazy like 4/60. 

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Yep, given this market, have to assume he's gone (and in hindsight, wish that busted 3 year deal had at least been re-worked to include 1 + an option). 
 
Although, given the market, the cost to replace him would be really high too (and likely include giving up a pick if it's a guy like Choo, or prospects for Kemp).
 
What the heck should the Sox do here?

If he leaves? Sign Corey Hart and thank Texas for giving us a 1st and a World Series ring for one hell of a rental that they didn't extend a QO for.

 

[Ananti]

I think we have to step up here. Ellsbury was one thing, we have JBJ waiting in the wings.  We have no one who can replace Napoli internally on the horizon. Unless the Sox know something about his health that scares them off, get it done.

 

[TheoShmeo]

If the issue is years -- two or three -- I would hold my nose and go to three.  I know that the Sox are all about discipline, but three years isn't exactly a mega contract.

 

[jimbobim]

I imagine this really comes down to years. I would bet texas and miami are dangling three at a high av and we are offering 2 at a higher av. Years have been the sweetener this offseason. I don't know if you make 4 years a red line because then it makes you more agressive in the OF market which is riskier with choo and kemp.  

 

[bd11]

Sox would lose little offensively if anything by signing Kendry Morales to replace Napoli.  Defensively would be a different story.

 

[KillerBs]

I don't mind if the Sox pay Napoli for 4 years but I would not want to commit to playing him at age 34 or 35.

 

[amfox1]

Sox would lose little offensively if anything by signing Kendry Morales to replace Napoli.  Defensively would be a different story.

 
They would also lose the #29 pick in a very deep draft.

 

[rembrat]

I think we have to step up here. Ellsbury was one thing, we have JBJ waiting in the wings.  We have no one who can replace Napoli internally on the horizon. Unless the Sox know something about his health that scares them off, get it done.

 
1B is one of the easiest positions to replace though. The Sox don't have to do anything drastic here but find a platoon partner for Carp. Steady as she goes.

 

[KillerBs]

 
1B is one of the easiest positions to replace though. The Sox don't have to do anything drastic here but find a platoon partner for Carp. Steady as she goes.

 
I think this is right. We will have plenty of chance/need to blow wads of cash, just need to be selective in doing so. And it is not as if the AL East got a lot tougher today.

 

[MakMan44]

 
1B is one of the easiest positions to replace though. The Sox don't have to do anything drastic here but find a platoon partner for Carp. Steady as she goes.

Agreed. I'd rather have the pick and the task of finding another 1st baseman than signing Napoli to a bad contract. 

 

[Joshv02]

 
They would also lose the #29 pick in a very deep draft.

But, they'd gain the 3whatever (assuming a non-protected team signs Napoli).  So, its like a drop of a run or two offensively, some difference that I can't quantify defensively (please no one tell me their UZR for 2013), and a few spots in the draft.

 

[Corsi]

According to an industry source, with Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson off the board, the pursuit of Napoli is intensifying. And the first baseman, coming off a strong season, hopes to at least match the three-year, $39 million deal (in terms of both length and dollars) to which he initially agreed with the Sox last December, before the diagnosis of avascular necrosis in his hips caused the two sides to renegotiate a one-year, $5 million deal.
 
The Sox, according to multiple sources, are willing to re-sign Napoli for multiple years based on his performance and ability to remain healthy without showing any further deterioration of his hips in 2013. But at this time, it is unknown whether the team is willing to go beyond two years to sign the free agent. Moreover, with Napoli representing one of the premier power bats on the market, it appears that other teams may be willing to extend beyond two years. As such, while Napoli has made clear his preference to return to the Red Sox, the gap between the Sox’ offer and that of other teams right now appears such that he is exploring alternatives. That doesn’t rule out the possibility of a deal with the Sox, but it does seem apparent that the market for Napoli will achieve definition in the near future given the other dominoes that are falling in the free agent market.
 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2013/12/06/despite-willingness-for-multi-year-deal-gap-remains-with-red-sox-mike-napoli/

 

[Corsi]

Mariners and Mike Napoli's camp have had recent conversations, sources tell @FOXSports1.
 

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/409009918436327428

 

[TOleary25]

Sox should just go to 3 yrs/$39M with Napoli. With the money being thrown around this offseason, that seems like a good deal. He's still projected to be a good hitter even if his BABIP normalizes and his strides at defense are encouraging. Obviously the hip is a concern but the move off of catcher seemed to help.

 

[C4CRVT]

The writing seems to be on the wall for a Hart pillow contract and some trading of some of the lesser options on the 40 man for some bolstering of the 1B and possibly corner OF options.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I agree with the keep Napoli crowd.  1B is not a deep position in the farm system and they can't afford to lose much more offense with Ellsbury gone.  If he truly wants to stay in Boston, matching a reasonable offer of say 3 years/$36 million shouldn't be an issue.  If it's an issue, then that's a problem with me. 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I agree with the keep Napoli crowd.  1B is not a deep position in the farm system and they can't afford to lose much more offense with Ellsbury gone.  If he truly wants to stay in Boston, matching a reasonable offer of say 3 years/$36 million shouldn't be an issue.  If it's an issue, then that's a problem with me. 

 
That's assuming that 3/36 is what it would take to match.  If it's 3/45 or something greater than that, I think there's absolutely no problem with letting Napoli go.
 
Seems like people are forgetting that his hip problem isn't going away.  The risk of the hip going out and leaving the team with a dead money contract is the same now as it was a year ago when they worked down their commitment from 3/39 to 1/5+incentives.  Even if Napoli, on the field, is worth whatever contract he gets, the risk that he might not stay on the field for the duration of it is still a big concern.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
That's assuming that 3/36 is what it would take to match.  If it's 3/45 or something greater than that, I think there's absolutely no problem with letting Napoli go.
 
Seems like people are forgetting that his hip problem isn't going away.  The risk of the hip going out and leaving the team with a dead money contract is the same now as it was a year ago when they worked down their commitment from 3/39 to 1/5+incentives.  Even if Napoli, on the field, is worth whatever contract he gets, the risk that he might not stay on the field for the duration of it is still a big concern.

If it's 3/$45, I'd do that too.  I'd pay a little more to keep it at 3 years.

 

[KillerBs]

So much hinges on how good you think Carp is. I am thinking pretty good...
 
If not Napoli, there is also the option of a Trumbo deal, which would cost us Felix +? probably...

 

[Dahabenzapple2]

I believe it will be 4 years - 60 million which of course is a no brainer to let the horse go......
 
I had Ellsbury from the begining going at 7/140 and to my dismay was surprise that so many thought it might be possible to sign him at 6 or even 5 years and wasn't suprised to see it go a bit higher which it did.
 
every year, most everyone is shocked by the market
 
fwiw  I see Choo at 6/120 and not a $$ less.....

 

[StuckOnYouk]

They could sign Drew for a 2 yr deal, move X to 3rd and Middlebrooks to 1B to go with a Carp platoon.
 
I'd still love to kick the tires on Brandon Belt, see if a lackey/middlebrooks type of offer would entice them. Or peavy, or Dempster.
 
Kid is 26 and just put up a 142 OPS+. Then let Napoli go and get the pick.
 
Probably fantasy land stuff though.

 

[TOleary25]

If not Napoli, there is also the option of a Trumbo deal, which would cost us Felix +? probably...

 
That'd be a terrible trade for the Sox. I'd much rather overpay for Napoli then move anything of value for Trumbo. 
 
 
 

I believe it will be 4 years - 60 million which of course is a no brainer to let the horse go......

 
Yea that would probably be way too much for the Sox to be in on. I don't see him getting more than three years but you never know.

 

[JimD]

Go to 3 years, $40 to $45 million as a sign of good faith.  If someone wants to blow that away ... thanks for helping get a WS title.

 

[jimbobim]

3 years 40-45 million is very reasonable id say.