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Mookie Betts appreciation thread

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Trotsky, Apr 26, 2018.

  1. Max Power

    Max Power thai good. you like shirt? SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,418
    Trout's "True Average" would be lower if he were on a better team. His OBP goes up 50 points when runners are on base. Pitchers don't want to give him anything to hit when he can hurt them, and they're right to do so. Mookie's scored 40% of the time he's reached base and Trout only scores 26%. If Trout had Benintendi, Martinez, and Bogaerts hitting behind him, his overall OBP would come down some.
     
  2. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    3,909
    That's a good point! I think B-R might exclude IBB from WAR calculations...
     
  3. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    3,909
    I'm having trouble finding it exactly, but here's something pointing to it:

    https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2012/10/why-can-war-change-from-one-year-to-next/

    Edit: Here it is:

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_wraa.shtml
    I have no idea if FG & BP do the same or different.
     
  4. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,916
    Speaking of WAR, just checked again at BBref. Here's the list of position players with 30 or more rWAR for ages 21-25:

    46.5 - Ty Cobb
    44.8 - Mickey Mantle
    43.1 - Mike Trout
    42.4 - Rogers Hornsby
    39.3 - Jimmie Foxx
    38.8 - Tris Speaker
    37.6 - Albert Pujols
    37.6 - Alex Rodriguez
    37.4 - Hank Aaron
    36.9 - Eddie Collins
    36.7 - Eddie Mathews
    35.6 - Arkie Vaughan
    35.1 - Rickey Henderson
    35.1 - Cal Ripken Jr.
    34.5 - Mookie Betts
    34.2 - Andruw Jones
    33.6 - Joe DiMaggio
    33.3 - Barry Bonds
    32.7 - Mel Ott
    32.1 - Stan Musial
    31.9 - Ken Griffey Jr.
    31.4 - Cesar Cedeno
    31.3 - Lou Gehrig
    31.0 - Johnny Bench
    30.9 - Frank Robinson

    Now some of those require an asterisk. For instance, Ted Williams and Willie Mays just missed the list (and Musial should be higher up on it) because of military service. Ruth isn't on it because he was a pitcher for most of that age slice. But nonetheless, this is is the company Mookie has placed himself in, and as long as he can stay healthy, I feel confident this is the kind of career he's going to have. The main question is how much of it he's going to have in Boston.
     
  5. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    33,117
    Cesar Cedeno surprises me. I knew he was good but not that good
     
  6. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    17,916
    He was a classic case of HoF potential derailed by injury. He averaged 6.0 rWAR per 650 PA through age 26, then 2.9 after that. He still ended up with a solid, Hall of Very Very Good career, but it wasn't quite what it should have been.
     
  7. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    48,030
    On his home run, it was kind of different. Usually, his swings are not overly long, but not short and compact either because he's not big and he has to have a bit of a lengthy swing to get power. His power also comes from his wrists, which are acclaimed as maybe the fastest in baseball. Anyway, on the home run, off an 86 mph inside corner of the plate slider I believe, he seemed to put on a much longer swing and go out after the ball with his body more. Then, after he hit it he twisted his neck watching the ball like Arnold Palmer used to watch his golf shots, and I was afraid it would go foul. That it didn't was great. To go out after and hit an inside pitch that hard and not have it hook like crazy means he did great in not letting his wrists roll over too much. Couldn't get the video (second one) to embed. MLB.com and ESPN.com videos not working for me at all today.

    https://nesn.com/2018/09/watch-mookie-betts-blast-three-run-home-run-in-eighth-inning-vs-yankees/
     
  8. bellowthecat

    bellowthecat Member SoSH Member

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    230
    Good observation Al. I wonder if his plan was to attack a slider no matter where it went and anticipated it would be down and in. It was obvious Chapman couldn't find the zone with his fastball. Excellent body control to hit that pitch like he did and keep it fair.
     
  9. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    48,030
    Thanks. Jim Kaat said Chapman would probably throw him nothing but breaking balls, but I think he meant because Mookie is so well known as a fastball destroyer. Either way, great result.
     
  10. Sin Duda

    Sin Duda lurker

    Messages:
    40
    I think he saw Chapman attack Sandy Leon with sliders after failing to show any consistency with his fastball. The slider Sandy struck out on looked middle/middle to me and I imagined Mookie on deck saying to himself "Throw that weak-ass shit again Meat".
     
  11. Niastri

    Niastri Member SoSH Member

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    192
    In lieu of a like button, I'm using this post.

    Having a little guy is the best!
     
  12. drbretto

    drbretto guidence counselor SoSH Member

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    8,935
    I think Mookie has this running away now, but one more steal puts him in the 30/30 club, putting a stamp down on one hell of a season.
     
  13. Pitt the Elder

    Pitt the Elder Member SoSH Member

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    457
    Mookie's 9.9 fWAR is 13th highest of the past 30 years and 59th all-time. If Mookie has another big game or two and can crack 10.2, he could have the 6th highest season of the past 30 years, and one of only 52 guys to go ever go 10.0.
     
  14. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    3,909
    His 10.7 bWAR is 4th highest of the past 30 years (Bonds 01, Bonds 02, Ripken 91) and 23rd highest ever. bWARs of 10.7 or more:
    1. Ruth 6
    2. Bonds 2
    3. Mantle 2
    4. Hornsby 2
    5. Cobb 2
    6. Mays 2
    7. Ripken
    8. Yaz
    9. Wagner
    10. Morgan
    11. Gehrig
    12. Mookie
    13. Musial
    14. Ted
    All searches above are for position players only.
     
  15. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    6,933
    It's stupid but true: milestones matter. 30/30 means something to some people, even more than 32/29. It's the same reason why, IMHO, JD would have taken MVP if he had eked out the Triple Crown, even though Betts, Trout, and others surpassed him in all the advanced metrics.
     
  16. Pitt the Elder

    Pitt the Elder Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    457
    Mookie goes 2 for 2 with a BB, SB, R, and 2B, cementing a 30/30 season and almost certainly cracking 10.0 in fWAR.
     
  17. drbretto

    drbretto guidence counselor SoSH Member

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    8,935
    I would think at this point, you can call it. Mookie is the MVP.
     
  18. Pitt the Elder

    Pitt the Elder Member SoSH Member

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    457
    Appropriately, here's the latest Fangraphs' article on Betts: Mookie Betts' Historical Season

    Betts is sitting at 10.1 fWAR and 10.8 bWAR having played only 134 games. If he played 152 games (his average the last two seasons), he would be looking at a season with ~11.5 fWAR and 12.3 bWAR, easily among the best of all-time.
     
  19. Gash Prex

    Gash Prex Member SoSH Member

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    1,670
    Despite the fact that Betts leads baseball in WAR, Keith Law would vote for trout because he believes if Trout played right field, he would have a higher WAR
     
  20. Pitt the Elder

    Pitt the Elder Member SoSH Member

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    457
    Wouldn't it be the exact opposite?
     
  21. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    48,030
    I saw that article by Law, and then remembered that he was the only writer that I saw that picked the Rockies in the 2007 World Series. He’s wrong again.
     
  22. Heating up in the bullpen

    Heating up in the bullpen lurker

    Messages:
    187
  23. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,916
    Theoretically, it should make little or no difference, because the differences in positional value are supposed to correspond roughly to the difference in difficulty between the positions, so a guy who is a league average CF should be about a +10 RF. Of course data for individual players who make that transition will vary widely. Mookie has a career UZR/150 gap of almost 20 between CF and RF, while for JBJ the difference is almost nonexistent. Trout has a large gap, but it's based on a tiny sample in RF, so that would most likely narrow quickly once he started racking up innings there.
     
  24. Max Power

    Max Power thai good. you like shirt? SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,418
    So he both believes that the MVP should be mindlessly given to the guy with the highest WAR and that he should make subjective adjustments for Trout because he's not the highest? That's some staggeringly stupid use of what are supposed to be the smarter statistics.
     
  25. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    3,909
    Can someone summarize the argument a little more fully? Paywall.
     
  26. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    7,101
    In his biography Leo Durocher said that Cedeño was the second most talented player he ever managed and the only player he ever saw that had the talent to be as good as Mays or Mantle. It’s a pity that his career was derailed by injury.
     
  27. Pitt the Elder

    Pitt the Elder Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    457
    Mookie put quite a bow on a historically great 2018. To take stock, here is Mookie's final line:

    AvgOBPSLGOPSWRC+fWARbWAR
    0.3460.4380.6401.07818510.110.9

    Here is how he ranked in the major offensive categories:
    MetricValueMLB-Rank
    fWAR10.11
    bWAR10.91
    HR3220
    R1291
    RBI8049
    SB308
    BB%13.20%19
    KK%14.80%28
    AVG0.3461
    SLG0.6401
    OBP0.4382
    WRC+1852
    BSR6.78

    And his defensive stats:

    MetricValueMLB-RankRF-Rank
    OOA1011-
    DEF9.6201
    UZR14.721
    DRS2051

    And finally, his month-over-month splits:

    MonthWRC+PAAvgOBPSLGOPSISOrhrsbbb%kk%tbhard %hr/fb %pa/hr
    Apr-182061070.3440.4390.7331.1720.389298312.10%11.20%6649.4%19.5%13.4
    May-182141060.3720.4340.7661.2000.3942391010.40%12.30%7242.7%26.5%11.8
    Jun-18139770.2900.4160.4680.8840.177123216.90%14.30%2938.5%12.5%25.7
    Jul-181561150.3300.4000.5730.9730.24320559.60%15.70%5948.2%13.9%23.0
    Aug-181851240.3530.4600.6181.0780.265254615.30%15.30%6344.1%10.5%31.0
    Sep-18200850.3770.4820.6381.1200.261203416.50%21.20%4440.4%13.6%28.3

    When looking at his splits, a few notable things:
    1. His mid-season injury took a toll, not just in missed time, but seemingly in diminished performance. June was by far his worst month. But...
    2. June really wasn't that bad! He still put up a 139 WRC+. Contrast that with Jose Ramirez, who had a meh August (114 WRC+) and a terrible September (83 WRC+).
    3. Mookie had a great August and a tremendous September. Though he didn't match the power output of April/May, he turned it on down the stretch, keeping a red-hot Trout at bay to effectively seal the MVP (voters' competence pending).
    4. It's hard not to wonder what Mookie would have done this year if he played ~155 games at full-health. Between the injury and the well-rested September, he was ~100 PA shy of where he was the past 2 years.
    Regardless, a hell of a season, one I'll remember for the rest of my life.
     
  28. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    48,030
    I appreciate the guy a ton. I’ve always loved very athletic, all around players who can also hit for power. That’s Mookie.
     
  29. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    15,619
    That Fangraphs piece makes a strong case that Betts is on an inner circle HoF path.

    It's time to extend him.
     
  30. Seels

    Seels Member SoSH Member

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    2,209
    No that time was a year ago. If he wasn’t priced out of an extension before he certainly is now.

    It drives me nuts that teams with lesser resources lock up their stars while the Red Sox don’t do the same. I greatly fear another Jon Lester scenario.
     
  31. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    10,219
    Everything Betts has done since he came up indicates that he has no interest in locking himself long term or taking a discount. Any talk of the Sox needing to extend him or missing their chance to extend him needs to include that. Extensions require two willing parties.
     
  32. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    9,494
    On its own, I'd say the Jon Lester scenario benefited the Redsox. Of course they went and signed David Price.
     
  33. TeddyBallgame9

    TeddyBallgame9 Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    378
    Absolutely. Any “hometown discount” will come in the form of right of first refusal. Mookie’s getting paid. If he comes back the Sox and says “team X offered me this” and the Sox are given the opportunity to match, that’s your hometown discount.
     
  34. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    17,916
    Wait, Sox GMs can't just sign whomever they please, when they please, at whatever terms they please?

    Holy shit. Does WEEI know?
     
  35. effectivelywild

    effectivelywild Member SoSH Member

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    210
  36. bsj

    bsj Renegade Crazed Genius SoSH Member

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    16,934
    Does anybody care about Baseball America? Does their award foreshadow anything? Cuz they somehow gave it to Trout.
     
  37. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    9,494
    For prospect coverage maybe. I don't think people care much about their MLB coverage.
     
  38. santadevil

    santadevil Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    3,616
    Mookie, I appreciate your athletic ability
     
  39. Yo La Tengo

    Yo La Tengo Member SoSH Member

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    137
    I've always liked the comparison of Mookie as a skinny Kirby Puckett. Putting aside Puckett's problems at the end of his career, they have a similar style, with the smile and energy on the field. But I'd argue that Puckett never had a season as good as Mookie's 2018. Amazing that he just turned 26.
     
  40. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    32,234
    You'd win that argument. Puckett was awesome, but (to make this simple) he topped out at an OPS+ of 153, in 1988. Betts was at 186 this season. That's a significant difference.
     
  41. joyofsox

    joyofsox empty, bleak Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    7,456
    Can anyone post the picture of Mookie in a dark red suit and very sharp red hat?
    At the time - end of August maybe? - there were also pictures of the sharp-dressed men Holt and Benintendi. Thanks.
     
  42. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,567
    Two Mookie stories this week:

    Story 1:
    https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/...-and-beyond/VodHwoUcb5ebIFXsj6p7iN/story.html

    and the more important story that shows Mookie is an MVP on and off the field.
    http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...uded-feeding-homeless-world-series-game-2-win
     
  43. tonyarmasjr

    tonyarmasjr Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    978
    I saw this and my thoughts were basically: There are a lot of athletes (and people, in general) who do things like this. They have many different reasons for doing so. Even if their motivation is that they're after the publicity of a good deed (and in no way do I think this is the case here), I'd much rather see people doing things like this than not. And then I got to the fact that he was out there at 1:00 in the morning after winning Game 2 of the World Series. I'm all for feeding the homeless, especially hot meals on a chilly night, and acts of Good Samaritan-ship. I try to participate in doing so, myself. But I can't see myself making that kind of gesture given the context. He's a special human being.
     
  44. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,916
    Exactly. And even the publicity has value. There must be a lot of young people who would look to somebody like Mookie for cues about what success means, who ask the question "what does a superstar do?" and expect that he can provide the answer. In this case, the answer was "he thinks about people who aren't as lucky as he is, when he would have every excuse in the world for just enjoying himself." It's hard to overstate the awesomeness of that.
     
  45. Reverend

    Reverend for king and country Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    37,364
    Remember kids: Mind and take care of the homeless and others in need of help and protection.

    And you might run into Mookie Betts!!
     
  46. mikeot

    mikeot Member SoSH Member

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    5,403
  47. ledsox

    ledsox Member SoSH Member

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    226
    Baseball Digest Player of the Year in MLB
     
  48. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,593
    the finalists for all the awards are being announced. finalists is a fancy term for who finished in the top 3.

    Mookie, Jose Ramirez, and Mike Trout are the AL MVP finalists. not sure when it's fully announced.
     
  49. Rusty13

    Rusty13 Member SoSH Member

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    3,942
    No JD Martinez. Disappointing, but hopefully this just motivates him to crush it even more next year!
     
  50. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    48,030
    Think I heard them say next week (for CY, MVP, ROY, MOY). Different award each day, starting Monday. Yes, starts next Monday.
     

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