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Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Sandy Leon Trotsky, Apr 26, 2018.
It would’ve been more awesome if he wrote, “next time I’ll use this on her”! on the bat instead
What the hell is this? Give me a fucking break.
So this isn't appreciation (though I certainly appreciate the man!) and I hope I'm not violating the theme of this thread but for the last 1/4 of the season (i.e. 40 games plus the first half of tonight's) Mookie has been shockingly bad at leading off in the 1st inning.
Including tonight he's led off 39 of the last 41 games and accumulated 2 singles, 3 walks and a HBP in that time with 13 K's (.057/.154/.057). Furthermore, in the 6 times he reached base he was erased twice as he is 0/2 in SB attempts. Of the 4 remaining times he has scored just one run (plus another scored when he was cut down in a FC by Benny but Benny later came around to score).
Contrast this with the rest of his PA's during this period: 46 for 125 with 14 doubles, 2 triples, 6 HRs, 19 BBs + 1 HBP, 30 runs scored and 9/11 in SBs. This equates to a .368/.452/.656 slash line and certainly shows that he continues to mash the ball as always.
So what is it? Are pitchers approaching him with a great initial game plan that he just subsequently adjusts to every game? Is it just the fun of SSS? (my vote if I'm honest - his 4 games before this period started sin, HR, top, sin) Would there be some wisdom in putting him a bit further down in the lineup?
Someone in a game thread pointed out that he had been cold leading off games a few weeks ago (and was hoping he'd reverse-jinx him - he didn't) so I started following it. Now after a 1/4 season's worth I thought I'd bring it up.
Certainly seems like he’s still taking a lot of 1st pitch strikes. Maybe they’re not the type of pitch he’s hunting.
Today leading off the 3rd: 1st pitch strike down the middle - taken. Pitches 2 and 3 out of the strike zone swings and misses.
Why the hell does the kid get the bat when his mom got hit with a ball?
I didn't get hit with a ball either--where's my bat?
The announcers mentioned this during the game last night and pointed out that he's hitting like .380 on his second at bat and suggested that he's using the first at bat to learn and then do his damage.
It just now occurred to me that if that really is the case, and that's part of his overall approach, it might make sense to have him lead off precisely to get that high probability out out of the way and not have it come at a higher potential value moment. That is, of course, if it's the approach theory thing as opposed to pitcher approach, which is an if.
Interesting thought, but I think it's just an aberration, though puzzling. He's like 3 for his last 30 leading off the game? That's not very Mookie.
What I do find very Mookie is the interview with him and JDM, or the bowling videos where he's scoring 300 and being a complete dork.
Here's some Mookie data I pulled--I haven't fully thought it through but figured no reason not to share just because I haven't decided what I think it means, eh?
[MLB won't let me pull these numbers and put them in the right order at the same time and the Qualifiers option goes dark, so, emphasis added.]
Batting First in the Order:
In a general sense, yes, if that spot further down in the order was 3rd or 4th. In a Redsox specific sense, not really. Who else would you bat lead off? Ben10 would make some sense but only vs RHP and X could always move up to the 2 but why mess with success?
It seems all our speed guys are also decent/great power hitters so it's an interesting discussion on where to bat some of them.
Bringing from the JD thread:
Potentially stealing the MVP from, or splitting the vote of, Mookie Betts (currently leading in WAR from b-r, fg & bp).
Edit: What happened to the tableizer?
All those WARs will be meaningless if JD wins the Triple Crown.
strictly with the bat, Mookie has been better than JD this year - 18 points of OBP for Mookie vs. 15 points of SLG for JD. This is on a per-AB basis. Because JD has played more, he's been 4 runs more valuable with the bat than Mookie.
Plus JD has 13 more GDP. Before we talk about baserunning/defensive/positional value.
That's what I'm complaining about
WPA doesn't even really help JD - it has him at 5.6 vs. Mookie at 5.0. The batting value BP is using already has him up 56 runs to 52, so this is a negligible difference.
Bottom line is Mookie needs to get a bit hot over the last 3 weeks to nail this down. Some people still look at the traditional numbers so if he hits 4-5 more homers, gets to 30 SB and gets the RBI number up to 80+ and it will *look* better. Most helpful would be a .340 plus BA to go with everything else.
35 HR, 5 T, 45 D with 30 SB plus 80 RBI & 125 runs scored would be impossible to argue with.
Mookie has been the most valuable player in the league by all three WAR metrics and it's not very close in any of them. And you're saying he needs to hit .367/.459/.724 in his last 20 games (rough math), or about 13 percent better than what's made him the best player in the league already.
And I don't think you're wrong and that's frustrating.
Edit: And increase HR production by 25%
I’m saying to WRAP it up. Of course he deserves it hands down but I think the NY asshat that left Pedro off the MVP ballot because he was “just a pitcher” when he was 24-4 with the inhuman numbers is still voting!!!
He was still voting in 2016...
He's hit .471/.609/.647 since this post and his lead in fWAR over Trout has been cut to .3 (9.2 to 8.9).
I think it's also fair to note that Trout's lead in oWAR over Mookie is significant, and Trout has the edge in baserunning, too (including 23 of 25 in SB). So Mookie's WAR edge comes down to defense. I certainly think Mookie's a fantastic rightfielder, but this board is incredibly skeptical of defensive metrics when it comes to its own players (hi, JBJ), and there are no doubt plenty of fans in Orange County who think Trout's defense is undervalued.
Clarification (not correction, you didn't say anything to the contrary) - oWAR includes the positional value of Trout's CF vs. Betts's RF, so the remaining difference in WAR is about value relative to the average player at their position.
So - Trout leads oWAR 8.4 to 7.8, Betts leads WAR 8.0 to 7.4, meaning Betts vs. average RF is +0.4 Wins and Trout vs. average CF is -1.0.
That number for Trout is surprising, I agree.
Fangraphs has Mookie up 9.2 to 8.9 in WAR, with Trout showing barely above average CF defense and Mookie plus around a win and a half above RF average.
Similar difference on defense, but Fangraphs has both higher than BR.
It's not that surprising. The average major league centerfielder is really good these days. Nobody's playing Wily Mo Pena out there anymore. Bradley, Pillar, Hamilton and the rest are great, and Trout is merely okay in comparison.
Whose version of WAR are you using? Those numbers don't correspond to anything current on either BBref or FG.
Right, it's kind of like Xander playing shortstop in a league with Simmons and Lindor. It's not that he's bad, he's just not that good.
That was baseball reference. What are you seeing differently?
Trout had a 5 for 5 game with 2 HR on Sept. 8. That'll give your WAR a nice bump even at this time in the season.
Trout beat out Mookie in 2016 for the award, and continues to play for a non competitive team (not his fault). Still, writers might lean ever so slightly more to the guy who is again on a first place team. Another guy that has me worried is Bregman, who is on a first place team and has the 30 - 100 - 100 numbers right now. That'll get the voters attention. His fielding comes up average on BBREF and a little negative on fangraphs. Eyetest-wise he looked like a fantastic fielding third baseman in the playoffs last year. They may remember that too.
You forgot the part about how he’d previously voted David Wells for MVP (when he was a Yankee, of course).
On BBref I'm seeing Mookie's total WAR as 9.8, not 8.0, and Trout's as 9.3, not 7.4.
I just realized what the problem is: the numbers you called WAR are WAA (wins above average).
So Mookie is 2 wins above the RF average and Trout is 1 win above the CF average. Makes much more sense.
When Mookie goes over the 10 mark in rWAR (as he probably will this weekend unless he's hit by a truck), he'll be just the fifth Red Sox position player ever to do so, and the first since Rico Petrocelli in 1969.
I dont post on the main board much as ya'll are way smarter than me. But if JD is in the running to win the triple crown, how is he ~3ish WAR behind? Does WAR not care much about RBI and HR? Does Mookie's fielding get him that much?
Yes this is basic to a lot of you all but I appreciate the insight.
WAR doesn't give a lick about RBI.
Here is a link with not too hard to follow info on how WAR is calculated for position players.
Mookie and JDM are in the same area as far as hitting but Mookie is much better in the field and running the bases which all figure in to it.
Love Rico but his 10.0 BWAR stands out like a redwood among the aspens of the rest of his career.
Yeah, what Byrd said. Purely at the plate, mookie and JD have been about as valuable as each other. Then mookie is a great defensive RFer while JD is a DH or a buther in the OF plus mookie’s value as a baserunner.
And no, RBI aren’t relevant.
Numbers - JD has been worth 56 runs at the plate, Mookie 57. Mookie’s been better on a per plate appearance level - 33 more OBP points to only 7 SLG fewer points. Doubles, homers, singles and walks make up for the homer differential - JDs higher PA catch him up in overall value.
Then Mookie’s worth positive 5 runs on the bases and JD negative 2 runs.
Another 3 runs different in their GDP tendencies.
And mookie is worth 15 runs better than the average player on defense (19 runs better than the average RF, RF is worth 4 runs fewer than average position) and JD is worth negative 16 runs (6 runs below average when in the OF, his combination of corner OF and DH with 10 runs fewer than the average position).
Add all that up and mookie has been worth 78 runs better than the average player. His playing time means you add 19 runs to get to a replacement level metric - 97 runs above replacement, or 9.8 WAR.
JD adds up to 37 runs above average, plus 21 runs for replacement level, and he has 58 runs above replacement or 5.9 WAR.
This is why this place is amazing. Thank you all.
Sir, where are those numbers from? The JD worth 56 at the plate. Thanks
This compares Mookie & JD's numbers for 2018
Edit: In the "Value" section, see "Rbat" for runs produced while batting. I mostly narrated that line, going across.
The positional adjustment difference between CF and RF is huge, though--does that need to be reincorporated if you split the numbers out like this? Like, how does a 2 win above average RF compare to a 1 win above average CF?
I was comparing it to the oWAR stat cited above, which already gives Trout credit for playing the more difficult position.
But to answer your specific question, there’s something like a half a win between an average RF and average CF, it looks like.
It occurs to me that, given that Mookie would be CF if not for JBJ, those numbers make a lot of sense--it works for me as a kind of "natural experiment" to assess how accurate the positional adjustments are. Seems to pass the smell test here.
Brett Gardner always got a considerable boost from being a CF the played LF. Mookie's in the same boat. Hasn't worked out for Ben10 yet though.
How the hell did Nomar in his prime never accumulate 10 WAR?!?!?
He always missed a bunch of games in his prime and it was also the steroid era so his numbers weren't as great relative to the league. His .372/.434/.599 line was good for a 156 OPS+. Betts .340/.433/.627 line is similar and good for a 183 OPS+.
Hell, Nomar has never put up an 8 WAR season, nevermind 10. Ellsbury put up an 8.3 in his career year. Arod only put up 10 once. It's only been done 58 times in the history of the sport, and many of those are repeaters. I can't be bothered to eliminate the doubles, but I'd guess less than 25 players have done it.
edit: By positional players anyway. Didn't bother checking pitchers.
double edit: Betts is going to get to 10 WAR in < 130 games. No injury excuse for him, Mr. Nomar.
I mean - 10 is a shit load. There have only been 58 10 WAR seasons by position players since 1903 (by 26 different players, Ruth had 9 and Hornsby and Mays each had 6).
Edit: covered above
Not to derail the thread too much, but is Rogers Hornsby the most underappreciated player in the sport?
Maybe. He’s got the highest JAWS among second basemen, and we hear more about Nap Lajoie. He’s one of ten players ever to exceed 100 JAWS, and we talk about Honus Wagner more.
Petrocelli, Al Rosen and Barry Bonds are the only Hall-eligible position players that have had a 10-WAR season and aren't in the Hall of Fame. It's an elite group, to put it mildly. That's how good Mookie is.
Yes. I do believe he is. He had an OPS+ of 188 over an entire decade, in which he accumulated over 6000 PA. Nobody else in the NL with at least 2500 PA for the decade was even over 150. He utterly dominated his league in perhaps the most explosive offensive era (certainly pre-steroid) in baseball history. He was nearly as good as Ruth, and played a tougher position.
He is tied for 5th all time in OPS+ with some guy named Mike Trout. The 4 guys in front of him are named Ruth, Williams, Bonds and Gehrig. There is an easy case to make for Hornsby being a top 10 positional player of all time.
He also called Jimmy Dugan a talking pile of pig shit. And that was after his parents drove all the way down from Michigan!