MLB.com mid-2014 Red Sox Top 20 Prospects

mabrowndog

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Full list & analysis here as compiled by Jim Callis.
 
Preseason system rank in parentheses. [XX/YY] = Pre-season/Current rank in MLB Top 100.
 
1. (7) Mookie Betts, OF/2B, AAA [62/14]
2. (2) Henry Owens, LHSP, AA [30/24]
3. (5) Blake Swihart, C, AA [61/28]
4. (6) Garin Cecchini, 3B, AAA [57/62]
5. (4) Allen Webster, RHSP, AAA [46/64]
6. (10)  Anthony Ranaudo, RHSP, AAA [--/82]
7. (12) Christian Vazquez, C, MLB
8. (13) Rafael Devers, 3B, R
9. (11) Manuel Margot, OF, A-
10. (2 SF) Edwin Escobar, LHSP, AAA [95/--]
11. (14) Brian Johnson, LHSP, AA
12. (15) Deven Marrero, SS, AAA
13. (8) Matt Barnes, RHSP, AAA
14. (9) Trey Ball, RHSP, A-
15. (--) Sean Coyle, 2B/3B, AA
16. (--) Michael Chavis, SS, R
17. (--) Michael Kopech, RHSP, R
18. (16) Wendell Rijo, 2B, A-
19. (--) Simon Mercedes, RHSP, A+
20. (21) Travis Shaw, 1B, AAA
 
Six new entries including Shaw. Bogaerts (1) & Bradley (3) have graduated, while OF Bryce Brentz (17), LHSP Cody Kukuk (18), RHSP Teddy Stankiewicz (19) and RHSP Jamie Callahan (20) have dropped out.
 
* Surprised to see the recently-acquired Escobar slotted that high in such a deep Sox system -- especially ahead of both Johnson & Marrero. I'm assuming that, like Webster, it's more about the max upside than anything else.
 
* While I appreciate the ceiling of Chavis, I can't see putting him higher than #20 today, particularly in light of the woefully slow start to his pro debut (4/43, 4 BB, 16 K, .093/.188/.163/.350). SoxProspects still has him 14th, so Callis isn't alone.
 
* I'd slot Rijo a couple of spots higher.
 
* Not sure how Mercedes vaults from unranked into the Top 20 considering he spent nearly 7 weeks on the DL, wasn't all that dominant before the injury, and didn't exactly fool batters in two starts for Salem (10 IP, 8 ER, 15 H, 2 HR) since returning from rehab with Lowell. The answer is it's probably by default, with 6 vacancies from the pre-season list, but I'd rank Luis Diaz above him.
 
* Uhhh... Cecchini at #4? I admire the lofty praise for his hit tools and work habits, but in terms of year-to-date on-field performance I'm having trouble seeing how he warrants a move up from his pre-season ranking. Ranaudo, Vazquez and Devers all merit spots above him (Devers on raw tools alone), while strong cases can likewise be made for Johnson, Margot and Marrero.
 

Rasputin

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I think you have current/preseason rankings switched.
 
 
Else Mookie has dropped fifty spots since pre-season.
 

Merkle's Boner

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Yeah Rijo is younger than Chavis and holding his own in A ball. I appreciate pedigree and all, but I'd put Rijo above him for now.

Also, pretty awesome that two of the guys having breakout seasons, Johnson and Marrero, can't break the top 10.
 

jscola85

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Coyle's got three things against him - health, K rate and size.  The combination of all three dings him a bit most likely in scouts eyes.  That said, when he's been healthy he's more or less raked as a minor leaguer.  The most encouraging thing about his performance this year is his reduced K rate.  If he can keep pushing that down close to 20%, he becomes far more interesting to me.  Guys in the 25%+ range tend to flop more often than not.
 

Plympton91

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My key edits to the list; Devers and Marrero move way up, Cecchini moves way down, Mercedes dropped for Steven Wright.


1. (7) Mookie Betts, OF/2B, AAA [62/14]

2. (2) Henry Owens, LHSP, AA [30/24]

3. (5) Blake Swihart, C, AA [61/28]

4. (13) Rafael Devers, 3B, R

5. (4) Allen Webster, RHSP, AAA [46/64]

6. (10) Anthony Ranaudo, RHSP, AAA [--/82]

7. (12) Christian Vazquez, C, MLB

8. (15) Deven Marrero, SS, AAA

9. (6) Garin Cecchini, 3B, AAA [57/62]

10. (2 SF) Edwin Escobar, LHSP, AAA [95/--]

11. (14) Brian Johnson, LHSP, AA

12. (11) Manuel Margot, OF, A-

13. (8) Matt Barnes, RHSP, AAA

14. (16) Wendell Rijo, 2B, A-

15. (--) Sean Coyle, 2B/3B, AA

16. (9) Trey Ball, RHSP, A-

17. (--) Michael Chavis, SS, R

18. (--) Michael Kopech, RHSP, R

19. (21) Travis Shaw, 1B, AAA

20. (--) Steven Wright, RHSP, AAA
 

LondonSox

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I think it's a bit ridiculous that devers is 4th over the likes of Vazquez and Marrero.
Those guys are going to be major league players at worst. Their floor is very high, the ceiling for both is pretty good and they are both there and ready this year or next.

That's your dream on a superstar with a potential flame out being pretty likely.

I get it but I think it's crazy

Edit: sorry I thought that was a corrected callis list not p91. Thoughts stand but I am less surprised by a fan dreaming on devers.
 

Cesar Crespo

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my list would look more like P91s with Rijo higher. I can't see Garin being at 4. He has sucked this year.
 

Brianish

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jscola85 said:
Coyle's got three things against him - health, K rate and size.  The combination of all three dings him a bit most likely in scouts eyes.  That said, when he's been healthy he's more or less raked as a minor leaguer.  The most encouraging thing about his performance this year is his reduced K rate.  If he can keep pushing that down close to 20%, he becomes far more interesting to me.  Guys in the 25%+ range tend to flop more often than not.
 
Also his ludicrous babip, unless that's come down in the last couple of weeks. 
 

mabrowndog

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I'm sure some of that is indeed batted ball luck, but quality of contact is playing a part as well. He's hitting more line drives (15% of BIP, up from 10% the previous 3 seasons), while his OF fly ball % has dropped dramatically (32.6% down from 41%).
 

mabrowndog

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Callis has a blog post up with 5 Bonus Prospects for the Sox
 
21. Henry Ramos, OF, AA
22. Bryce Brentz, OF, AAA
23. Teddy Stankiewicz, RHSP, A-
24. Heath Hembree, RHRP, AAA
25. Nick Longhi, OF/1B, SS-A
 
It's kind of depressing to see 3 guys on that list who've missed substantial time with injuries this year. Ramos has been out 2 months with a stress fracture in his left tibia, Brentz has been shelved by a strained right hamstring for 10+ weeks, and Longhi just had season-ending surgery after tearing the UCL in his right thumb on a slide last week.
 

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On the other hand, doggie, I am glad Callis hasn't forgotten Ramos. He is and has always been a project, but he plays with a little Puig-like joy (not showmanship or the flair, but the joy) and he's a late comer to the game. It's a long chance but it's still there with him. 
 

mabrowndog

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Oh, I agree completely. It just sucks to see their development get stalled in this manner.
 

Merkle's Boner

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someoneanywhere said:
On the other hand, doggie, I am glad Callis hasn't forgotten Ramos. He is and has always been a project, but he plays with a little Puig-like joy (not showmanship or the flair, but the joy) and he's a late comer to the game. It's a long chance but it's still there with him. 
I'd love to know if you have a view on Keury de la Cruz.  i have always viewed these two (Ramos and KDLC) similarly as they are close in age and seem to have been going to the system at a similar rate.  Up until this year, their numbers were similar as well.  De la Cruz has not had a good year, and like Ramos, has been injury-prone. I know you have always been positive on Ramos. Any thoughts on KDLC?
 

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Merkle's Boner said:
I'd love to know if you have a view on Keury de la Cruz.  i have always viewed these two (Ramos and KDLC) similarly as they are close in age and seem to have been going to the system at a similar rate.  Up until this year, their numbers were similar as well.  De la Cruz has not had a good year, and like Ramos, has been injury-prone. I know you have always been positive on Ramos. Any thoughts on KDLC?
 
Zero patience at the plate.  Can't hit a breaking pitch.  Less athletic than Ramos.  I'll be surprised if he's in the Red Sox organization this time next year.
 

someoneanywhere

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Merkle said:
I'd love to know if you have a view on Keury de la Cruz.  i have always viewed these two (Ramos and KDLC) similarly as they are close in age and seem to have been going to the system at a similar rate.  Up until this year, their numbers were similar as well.  De la Cruz has not had a good year, and like Ramos, has been injury-prone. I know you have always been positive on Ramos. Any thoughts on KDLC?
Q pretty much nails it above on KDLC as a hitter. He can handle what he can handle, which is a fastball, usually in a mistake spot. He's starting to see fewer and fewer of those, with predictable results. You'd have to tie his hands to his feet in the box to walk him: he has no approach that I could ever identify, other than see fastball, hit fastball. Ramos, you could tell, was learning the game from the bottom up. So while the numbers might look similar, each of them got there by different means entirely. Henry is a soccer player turned baseball player. So you could explain to him the finer points of hitting, say, the importance of an approach, and his mentality would embrace the importance attention to the finer points. KDLC never to me seemed to have that same mentality.

The one other thing that always struck me about KDLC in comparison to Ramos is body type and athleticism. K is doughy, and kind of thick. Ramos is built. The concerning thing is that KDLC's frame suggests he should have a better body -- which suggests a deeper issue with work ethic and commitment. Somebody like a Miles Head or a Travis Shaw, those guys just have some genetic issues, but you could always tell they worked to maximize the bodies they were given.

KDLC IMO has some tools to be a hitter, but a bunch of things have to change for him to have a real shot. Ramos might not make it either, but he's got a much better shot at putting it altogether, and beyond that a chance for impact if he does. .
 

arzjake

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Keep an eye on LONGHI next season. Very quick hands at the plate, if the power comes look out.. Heavy sign bonus. Spoke with a scout for the Angels at one his games this season. "looks good" but needs a position..
 
The one that got away, RBOLDT Nebraska
 

mabrowndog

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Callis has updated the MLB Sox Top 20. Eduardo Rodriguez, the lefty acquired for Andrew Miller, slots in at #10 just ahead of Edwin Escobar.
 

Stan Papi Was Framed

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mabrowndog said:
Callis has updated the MLB Sox Top 20. Eduardo Rodriguez, the lefty acquired for Andrew Miller, slots in at #10 just ahead of Edwin Escobar.
sounds like Rodriguez is a nice guy to add to the mix (as is Escobar)--here's Callis on both:
 
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Red Sox (from Orioles): It didn't grab as many headlines as Boston's Deadline deals involving Lester and John Lackey, but the Red Sox also made a smaller trade that sent Andrew Miller to Baltimore for Rodriguez. No. 68 on MLBPipeline.com's preseason Top 100 Prospects list, he has taken a step backward this season but is still a promising lefty. Rodriguez has a ceiling as a No. 3 starter with three average or better offerings, starting with a 90- to 94-mph sinker.
Before trade: Orioles No. 3 prospect | After trade: Red Sox No. 10 prospect
Edwin Escobar, LHP, Red Sox (from Giants): Boston also was busy before Deadline day, doing a nice job of parlaying Jake Peavy into Escobar and right-hander reliever Heath Hembree on Saturday. Like Rodriguez, Escobar is a preseason Top 100 Prospect (No. 95) who has slipped a notch in 2014. He still has a low-90s fastball and a chance for at least an average slider and changeup, however.
Before trade: Giants No. 2 prospect | After trade: Red Sox No. 11 prospect
 

Sprowl

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Stan Papi Was Framed said:
sounds like Rodriguez is a nice guy to add to the mix (as is Escobar)--here's Callis on both:
 
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Red Sox (from Orioles): It didn't grab as many headlines as Boston's Deadline deals involving Lester and John Lackey, but the Red Sox also made a smaller trade that sent Andrew Miller to Baltimore for Rodriguez. No. 68 on MLBPipeline.com's preseason Top 100 Prospects list, he has taken a step backward this season but is still a promising lefty. Rodriguez has a ceiling as a No. 3 starter with three average or better offerings, starting with a 90- to 94-mph sinker.
Before trade: Orioles No. 3 prospect | After trade: Red Sox No. 10 prospect
Edwin Escobar, LHP, Red Sox (from Giants): Boston also was busy before Deadline day, doing a nice job of parlaying Jake Peavy into Escobar and right-hander reliever Heath Hembree on Saturday. Like Rodriguez, Escobar is a preseason Top 100 Prospect (No. 95) who has slipped a notch in 2014. He still has a low-90s fastball and a chance for at least an average slider and changeup, however.
Before trade: Giants No. 2 prospect | After trade: Red Sox No. 11 prospect
 
Both sound like low-ceiling control lefties without much stuff to write about, and who have stagnated so much this year that both of their teams decided to cut bait.
 

Rasputin

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I think it's hysterical that the Orioles third best prospect comes into our system and ranks tenth. And then the Giants second best becomes our eleventh.
 
We have a metric fuckton of good young pitchers.
 
I just wish we had someone who looked like a future ace.
 

smastroyin

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The Red Sox definitely have more depth, but to be honest and (kind of) to your point, 4-13 or so on the Sox list are largely interchangeable in terms of ranking.  As well, both guys would have ranked higher on pre-season ranks, as noted by Callis.
 

someoneanywhere

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Bucky has the stuff to be that, but I don't think he has the head: he's soft, and I say that not as a hysterical accusation, but as observation and amateur evaluation. He may grow out of that without the shadow of Lester and Lackey, to whom he's kind of been the little brother. But I doubt it.

Which is to say: for all the water that got muddied yesterday, I do think the Sox moves, especially against the moves made in Oakland and Detroit, tell us that they will not going into 2015 without one and probably two frontline guys. I know, I know. How we get them is the issue. But their moves tell us they want to contend. Their past moves have always told us that their competitiveness wins out against their "sense."
 

Drek717

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Sprowl said:
 
Both sound like low-ceiling control lefties without much stuff to write about, and who have stagnated so much this year that both of their teams decided to cut bait.
How low can their ceilings really be when both where universally top 100 prospects in all of baseball?  I mean, assuming other top 100 lists are similar to Baseball America's and have roughly half the list dedicated to pitchers you're talking about Escobar and Rodriguez being in the top 50 best young pitchers throughout all the minors, at 22 and 21 respectively.  Both actually ranked in the middle of the pool by most lists (Escobar at 56 and Rodriguez at 65 by BA) so they were quite recently in a more exclusive group than that.
 
Both were ranked higher to start this year than every Red Sox pitching prospect other than Owens by Baseball America (Webster was the one other guy to make their top 100) and pretty comparably to Webster/Ranaudo/De La Rosa/Barnes by most any other list out there.  They're both incredibly young for their mL assignments.  Neither has a clear cut filthy weapon like Owens and Ruby do with their change ups or Webster does with his high 90's sinking fastball, but both of them have good velocity for the majors, a couple secondary pitches with real potential to be average or better offerings in the majors, and productivity up until 2014 on their side.  The lack of production in 2014 is also very explainable for both of them, with Escobar being stuck in the pitcher's nightmare PCL and Rodriguez having a huge ERA:FIP differential likely caused by horrible defense behind him.
 
Both currently profile as a back of the rotation guy but they're both also just one significant step forward from potentially being something more than that.  Hell, it's really likely both are just an improved change up away from being much better pitchers and if there is one thing the Sox pitching coaches seem to know its how to coach up a guy's change up.
 

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Drek717 said:
How low can their ceilings really be when both where universally top 100 prospects in all of baseball?  
 
***
 
Both currently profile as a back of the rotation guy but they're both also just one significant step forward from potentially being something more than that.  Hell, it's really likely both are just an improved change up away from being much better pitchers and if there is one thing the Sox pitching coaches seem to know its how to coach up a guy's change up.
 
They're not so much "lottery tickets" as they are raffle tickets.  (Just about all our possible in house starting pitching for 2015 falls into that category, including Buchholz.)
 

ALiveH

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No Hembree?  I would've ranked him no worse than #15.  He has great stuff and looked great in 9 appearances in the majors.  I get that relievers are less valuable than starters but still a guy who has a decent shot at being a lights out setup man or closer is a pretty valuable player.
 

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It's not worth it's own thread, but one of the writers from Baseball America (I didn't catch who) was just on MLBN and threw up the top 5 farm systems after the trade deadline.
 
1. Cubs.
2. Twins.
3. Red Sox.
4. Astros.
5. Pirates.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
It's not worth it's own thread, but one of the writers from Baseball America (I didn't catch who) was just on MLBN and threw up the top 5 farm systems after the trade deadline.
 
1. Cubs.
2. Twins.
3. Red Sox.
4. Astros.
5. Pirates.
 
That's particularly impressive because those other systems (with the partial exception of the Pirates) are there principally because the teams have been drafting high a lot recently and their systems possess multiple elite talents taken in the Top 5 or Top 10.
 

mabrowndog

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
That's particularly impressive because those other systems (with the partial exception of the Pirates) are there principally because the teams have been drafting high a lot recently and their systems possess multiple elite talents taken in the Top 5 or Top 10.
 
Absofuckinglutely. No other team in the majors was more efficient at exploiting the free agent compensation system under the last CBA. Here are their last 10 supplemental/compensatory picks, all made over a span of about 2 calendar years:
 
2012 - Brian Johnson (supplemental pick for losing Jonathan Papelbon)
2012 - Pat Light (supplemental pick for losing Jonathan Papelbon
2011 - Matt Barnes (compensation pick from Tigers for losing Victor Martinez)
2011 - Blake Swihart (compensation pick from Rangers for losing Adrian Beltre)
2011 - Henry Owens (supplemental pick for losing Victor Martinez)
2011 - Jackie Bradley (supplemental pick for losing Adrian Beltre)
2010 - Kolbrin Vitek (compensation pick from Braves for losing Billy Wagner)
2010 - Bryce Brentz (supplemental pick for losing Billy Wagner
2010 - Anthony Ranaudo (supplemental pick for losing Jason Bay)
2010 - Brandon Workman (supplemental pick for losing Jason Bay)
 
One one of those (Vitek) was a complete bust. Bradley, Workman & Ranaudo are in the majors now, while Barnes, Brentz & Owens are at AAA. Johnson & Swihart are both knocking on the PawSox door.
 
Players previously obtained through the same system include Ellsbury & Lowrie (for losing O. Cabrera), Bard (for losing Damon), and Buchholz (for losing Pedro).
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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It's also a particularly impressive rating when you consider that none of Bogaerts, Betts, Workman, Vazquez, Bradley or RDLR are considered prospects by them any longer.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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bosox79 said:
Betts is 1 on the list. Vaz 7th.
 
I don't think that's updated for the mid season rankings, as Betts is not in that list and it was mentioned that he would have been 12th if he was still eligible.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I was using their actual mid-season top 50 list, posted on July 7th.
 
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-50-injury-cant-knock-buxton-1/?sm_id=social_20140707_27362376
 
We had a thread here: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/84355-baseball-america-midseason-top-50/
 
The link for the mid-season top 50 BA has up goes to the July 7th list, so I have no idea that you are talking about here. Got a link?
 
Edit: Is it behind the additional $4.99 article that isn't included in my subscription?
 

Cesar Crespo

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My bad. I missed the BA part. I thought he was talking about the mlb.com guys saying top 5 system.

Yeah, I dunno. Swihart has turned it up a notch and Owens is still there but maybe they re added him. He's still a prospect by definition.
 

Stan Papi Was Framed

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Rovin Romine said:
 
They're not so much "lottery tickets" as they are raffle tickets.  (Just about all our possible in house starting pitching for 2015 falls into that category, including Buchholz.)
yes…and I like the strategy of piling up raffle tickets.  you probably just need 1-2 to work out (and maybe 1-2 others in the bullpen).