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Discussion in 'MLB Discussion' started by bg1025, Nov 2, 2017.
Damn, I miss Theo.
Eh, it's Tyler Chatwood. He's a nice enough back of the rotation starter, I guess. Hardly worth pining for. He doesn't strike that many batters out and doesn't avoid walks. He keeps the ball on the ground really well, but that's what makes him a decent pitcher instead of a bad one.
I know they needed to replace Arrieta, but Chatwood is almost assuredly a step down from what they got out of that roster spot last year.
He's a) out of Colorado now and 2) will be getting Jim Hickey as a pitching coach. I think it's way to early to declare that he'll be the same pitcher as in previous years.
If he was more of a flyball pitcher, I'd expect a significant improvement on his BABIP. As is, he had a .283 last season. So the Coors effect likely wasn't a major factor for him. And again, he's a nice enough back of the rotation guy, but "I miss Theo" is a ridiculous reaction to this signing, IMO. It's a depth signing, He's a back of the rotation fill-in, nothing more.
Edit: Okay, I'll rephrase from "depth signing."
Doug Fister is a "depth signing." You don't give $38M to a depth signing.
But you're right about the over-praising of Theo
I rephrased above as a reaction to this post, but I do want to point out that 38 million over 3 years doesn't buy you what it used to. If a win is worth about 8.5 million (which is the number I have heard thrown around on various podcasts from places like Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus), then he's expected to be below average at that salary. That's about 1.5 wins per year.
Maybe that's more of an argument that WAR has issues when used to assess individual talent, but even if you discount its usefulness in this regard, I don't see any reason to think that 3/38 is all that significant of a contract anymore.
I don't choose to believe in any of that stuff, anymore than I believe in the Tooth Fairy of the moon "landing."
Sleep better that way.
The moon landing was definitely faked. The government hired Stanley Kubrick to film it for them, but being the perfectionist that he was, he insisted that they film on location.
No, that's not my joke.
I don't think he could make a roster but he might still get a Gold Glove.
Not only is he 53, but there is now PED testing in MLB, so that's an even bigger factor working against him.
He can probably team up with Canseco and play in the independent league, if they can stand each other. They can share needles, just like the good old days!
For what it's worth, Chatwood had a tremendous road/home pitching split, much more than most Rockies pitchers. He was often great on the road and horrible at home. Coors Field was really in his head, so much so that there were whispers the Rocks considered only starting him on the road.
I think he'll be a good back of the rotation arm for the Cubs pitching away from Coors. Solid signing.
Seattle has traded for Dee Gordon from Miami per Ken Rosenthal.
So what's Cano doing?
Staying at 2B as Gordon appears to be heading to CF.
Dipoto is hilarious.
Pretty solid. If they get Ohtani and Felix and Paxton are healthy, they're solidly in the WC race.
Cano, Cruz, Gordon, Gamel, Segura, Seager, Zunino, Healy and maybe Ohtani. Top 3 rotation of Paxton, King Felix, and Leake. Interesting team but we always say Seattle will contend but never does.
Along with Gordon, the Mariners are getting $1M in international pool money. It would seem this deal is geared toward helping them get Ohtani.
Gordon appears to be perhaps not entirely thrilled:
He's that guy in your fantasy league who gets withdrawal symptoms if he goes more than a week without a trade. There's one in every league (several in SoSH Real Fantasy... including me).
Stanton reportedly says no to Giants and Cardinals.
The story is now that he wants to go to a winning team and that his list includes the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, and Astros...coincidentally or not, the final four from this past October. So maybe the west coast preference was not true, but it's questionable if that opens the door for the Red Sox or not. 2017 results aside, it's not like the Giants or Cardinals couldn't be winners in 2018 with the addition of Stanton to the roster. Perhaps he sees the Sox the same way?
I have no issue with Stanton doing this, as the Marlins granted him him this right. But if that means taking a deal that is significantly less than what SF/STL was offering, the move from Florida’s perspective is to call his bluff and tell him they will rebuild with him on the roster so he will have to endure some last place seasons before he gets the option to opt out after the 2020 season.
The main guy on this story on Twitter, Craig Mish, a South Florida talk show host, says there is zero chance Stanton will open the season with the Marlins. FWIW...
Also the Giants’ deal that was agreed on really didn’t have too much talent going the other way, it wouldn’t be hard for NY or LAD to match if they wanted to. There have been no real indications so far that either is willing to take on that contract, though.
If the report that Heliot Ramos was included is true, that's actually a decent haul. He's a long way off, but his ceiling is huge. But the Yankees could trump that offer with one player whether it's Florial or Clint Frazier, if they were so inclined.
I could see Houston stepping up and offering Kyle Tucker, actually. He'd become redundant with Stanton around, and adding Stanton to the WS champs would be... well... I'd be very unhappy about that as a fan of a team with a very short contention window in front of us.
NY could offer something like Frazier and Chance Adams plus filler, not sure if HOU would go that far after moving some of their pitching prospects midseason last year (Verlander and I think there was a second deal where they gave up someone good).
I have no doubt that is their intention. But if they want to maximize their return, nothing is stopping them from at least publicly saying “we will keep him if we get no offers to our satisfaction that he will accept ”. I mean, if the Dodgers/Yanks/Cubs/Astros aren’t interested at all unless the Marlins eat 50% of the deal, isn’t that exactly what would happen?
And that's on the back of the Ken Giles trade at the end of 2015, where they sent 5(!) arms to Philly for Giles and Jonathan Arauz.
I think from what I am reading on Twitter that if none of the four teams Stanton would prefer step up with an adequate deal, that he has left the possibility open to go back to SF or STL, assuming those are still on the table.
This is the Florida guy who seems to be most on top of this story, just posted this, no idea what it's based on:
Craig MishVerified account @CraigMish
Stanton 9:20 AM EST
Yeah, if the Dodgers are willing to make a competitive offer, that's it. No one else would stand a chance. Question is, what kind of offer would they make? Something like Verdugo and Alvarez? Maybe Jaren Kendall instead of Verdugo? The Marlins might be willing to bet on the bigger ceiling even with the much lower floor.
I actually took a look at why the Yankees made sense as a potential trade partner for dot come a little more than a month ago. This news breaking seems a good enough excuse to repost the link.
For the Yankees, I would think they have to dump Gardner and do their best to dump Ellsbury if they plan to bring Stanton in. It's also somewhat of a question whether or not they'd go for Harper next year if they had Stanton this year. Two monster contracts like that could destroy the team.
The whole point of trading for Stanton now is to avoid Harper next year. No chance they do both unless Judge is sucked into an interdimensional rift.
The Yanks are going to contend this year barring massive injury/under performance with or without Stanton. Why would they take prospects and money to acquire Stanton? They can wait one season and give up Money and a few draft picks for Harper. They can use any those prospects to get a pitcher like Cole or Fulmer since they missed out on Ohtani. I am also unclear as to the Dodgers motives to acquire Stanton. If I were the Marlins I would keep Stanton and let him enjoy watching October baseball from home.
I think, that given a choice, I would prefer for the Yankees to get Stanton rather than Harper. Harper is three years younger (so he'll be theoretically going into his prime, while Stanton is theoretically already there), does more things (his slash compared to Stanton: 285/386/515 to 268/360/554), has a bit more speed and is less injury-prone.
Plus it would take a prospect or two away from the Yanks to get Stanton, which will be nice. Though knowing who runs the Marlins would probably be a third-rate kid. All it takes for Harper is money.
Harper hasn't exactly been the poster child for health and has Josh Beckett disease, odd/even year phenomenon. I'd rather pass on both at their price tags.
It wouldn't shock me if Harper got 35 per over 12+ years with Boras as his agent. Stanton's is going to be a bargain in comparison.
STL has announced they’re out on Stanton because he won’t agree to go there.
I'm wondering if the Yankees are thinking the same thing.
Stanton rejected the Giants too.
I have a bad feeling about this....
Now Stanton has officially turned down the Giants too.
Doesn't it seem pretty clear that Stanton really wants to go to the Dodgers? Does to me.
(1) I wonder if the Marlins would take something like Puig, Brandon McCarthy, and a couple of youngsters for Stanton if the Dodgers want to GFIN while Kershaw is still healthy. If YeahJeets really wants to dump Stanton, he's running low on suitors. I can't imagine he'll give Cashman a sweetheart deal, but I guess anything is possible.
(2) I wonder what the A's, Padres, Phillies or ChiSox could extract from the Dodgers for taking on Adrian G or the Angels for taking on Pujols (assuming either would agree to such a trade).
Yes, it has from day one, but the Dodgers will need to move around some salaries to fit him in. If he made total sense for LA, a deal would have been done weeks ago. LA is at $210M for 2018 already and were trying to get down a bit before they need to renew Kershaw next year.
Puig and Mattingly hate each other from their time together in LA, I don't think he's going to Miami.
Fair point. Though maybe Puig has matured a bit. And the fact that he'd be a big draw for a terrible team might be pretty compelling for Miami.
Edit: From Heyman:
I've heard Ozuna mentioned as available in trade talks so it would be odd if they acquired Puig or any outfielder who makes more than peanuts. They'd maybe save 3 million this year since Ozuna will earn around 10 in arbitration to Puig's 2018 salary of 7.5. Then Puig goes to arbitration next year.
I haven't seen any major league names tied to the Marlins who make actual money. Panik was mentioned before and he made 500k last year.
This seems highly unlikely to be true, but FYI:
That could work out quite nicely for SF.
And wants to use the Yankees as a stalking horse