Dismiss Notice
Guest, I have a big favor to ask you. We've been working very hard to establish ourselves on social media. If you like/follow our pages it would be a HUGE help to us. SoSH on Facebook and Inside the Pylon Thanks! Nip

Minor League Progress Report

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by bosox79, Jun 1, 2018.

  1. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    Figured this thread could be used to track which prospects are doing well or not during the season.

    I'll focus on a few of the players doing well, and will stick to hitters who are at least somewhat age appropriate for their league this time around. I will be very optimistic, so read it with Redsox colored glasses. In no particular order:

    Tzu Wei Lin: Lin has been on a tear the last 4 games hitting .533/.588/1.067 in 17 PA. It brings his season line at Pawtucket to .272/.344/.444. His hitting is also resembling his first half of 2017 in that he is hitting many more balls in the air. At still just 24 years old, he is interesting since his approach has clearly changed and it's leading to results. With the ability to play 2b, 3b, SS, CF and the arm strength to play LF and RF, he could actually turn into something valuable.

    Josh Ockimey: After a slow start, where he slashed .200/.333/.275 in his first 48 PA (8bb, 16k) of the year, Ockimey has reversed ship. In the last 28 games, he is slashing .293/.388/.525 in 121 PA (18bb, 32k). That brings his season totals to .266/.373/.453. The strikeouts are still a concern but he also walks a lot and has big time power. He's still only 22 and in AA so he bears watching. If he has any type of future, it's with his bat.

    CJ Chattham: He's not exactly young at 23 and in Salem, but he missed most of last year so it's understandable. In 151 PA this year, he is slashing .315/.344/.432 between A and A+. He appears allergic to walking, having only drawn 5 free passes. Hopefully he starts hitting for more power soon, but given he missed last year and he was a 2nd round pick just 2 years ago, his performance to date is a start. Especially since he's a SS.

    Santiago Espanial: Another guy who isn't exactly young at 23 and in Salem, but he's only been in the system since 2016 and while he wasn't great shakes in 2017, he did make many improvements. This year, he's added power to his game in the short going. In 178 PA, he is hitting .298/.359/.491. He has 7 doubles, 3 triples and 6 HRs (a career high, granted it's his 2nd full season). I'm guessing he'll get a promotion to AA soon, where he will be age appropriate for a legit prospect.

    Roldani Baldwin: Roldani has missed some time this year with injuries so has only played 20 games but he's made the most of them. The 22 year old catcher has slashed .269/.326/.551 for Salem in his 85 PA, including 6 HRs. Baldwin starting hitting for more power last year in his break out season, and he has continued to do so. With his power potential, he is an intriguing prospect.

    Bobby Dalbec: This is a mixed bag. He is hitting for some serious power but striking out entirely too much. Slashing .217/.347/.478 for the year in 196 PA, with 28bb and 62k. Maybe he can make the jump Chavis did in plate discipline, and without the suspension. He gets eaten alive in AA without some sort of adjustment.

    Lorenzo Cedrola: The 20 year old CF is slashing .323/.361/.424 for the year in 103 PA. While fast, it hasn't really translated on the basepaths yet and he will have to hit for more power, but he's shown the ability to hit for average.

    Victor Acosta: After holding his own in a 31 game stint in Salem, the 21 year old Acosta started this year in Greenville. He didn't let that bother him, as he is hitting .310/.342/.497 in 150 PA. He's never been to walk much but he started hitting for power last year and is hitting for even more this year.


    It's not a great group, but it's something. It's mostly a list of players with some pretty good skills but one really bad flaw, whether they strike out too much, don't walk enough, have a noodle bat, etc.
     
  2. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    Also, Marino Campina, the 20 year old OF in Greenville. He is slashing .244/.294/.482 in Greenville and has started to tap into that crazy power potential that he has in the early going. He also has 9bb/53k in 180 PA to go along with 7 doubles, 3 triples and 9 HRs. His plate discipline will need some serious improvement but that power is real.
     
  3. Trotsky

    Trotsky Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,964
    Can Lin not play 2B? I'm not really bullish on Pedroia staying healthy or performing well much at all any longer and with anything close to those offensive numbers, he'd be a great valuable starter there.

    Also... what's Baldwin's defensive rep at C?
     
  4. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    2b may actually be Lin's best position defensively. He can play 2b, SS, 3b and CF. Considering he has a strong arm, he can probably play LF and RF too. I like Lin a lot and think he could possible develop into a starting quality player at 2b or CF, two areas of potential need.

    Baldwin is a pretty mediocre catcher but opinions on minor league catchers tend to vary a lot. When he first came over to the states, he started at 3b.
     
  5. keninten

    keninten lurker

    Messages:
    489
    I like Lin @ SS, Bogaerts @ 3B, Devers @1B.
     
  6. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    32,384
  7. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    Ockimey is now up to .274/.385/.490 in 192 PA with 28bb and 52k, having hit .333/.478/.778 in 23 PA since I made this thread.

    That brings him to .299/.403/.564 in hist last 33 games, 144 PA. 22BB/36k.

    Dalbec's last 6 games: .261/.370/.826 in 27 PA with 4 HRs, 4bb/4k.

    Some pitchers:

    Everyone knows about Beeks and he is starting tonight for the Redsox. He made some changes last year so anything prior to 2017 is probably safe to ignore.

    Chandler Shepherd, 25: I only mention him because for some reason he was converted to a starter this year after having success in the bullpen the previous 4 seasons. He's been about as effective starting as he was out of the pen, albeit he is striking out fewer guys.

    Ty Buttrey, 25: He converted to the pen in 2016 and had mixed results last season. This year it looks like Ty has taken a step forward, striking out 37 and walking 10 in his 22.2 in MR. He has struck out 35% of the batters he's faced and could potentially see time this year in the majors if he keeps it up, though you would like his control to improve a little more. His fastball sits around 95-96 mph.

    Robby Scott, 28: We all saw him last year in Boston but he's been lights out in AAA this year, with an era of 1.77 in 20.1 ip with 31k and 6bb. SSS and all, he is striking out batters at a higher rate than ever before at 38%.

    Daniel Gonzalez, 22: Continuing to improve off a solid year last year, Gonzalez has a 2.93 era in 43ip, with 9bb/47k. A control pitcher, he started to strike out more guys last year.

    Denyi Reyes, 21: Topping out around 90mph and not having all that great of stuff prior to this year (and maybe still?), Reyes has managed to get by on pinpoint command up until this season. Coming into the season, his career K rate was 20.7% and his career BB rate was 2.1%. In 12 games, 9 starts and 64.2 ip this year, Reyes has struck out 26.7% of batters and walked 3.2%. He has 67 strikeouts and 8bb. Curious if his stuff has improved any. He throws strikes.

    Jhonanthan Diaz, 21: Another guy with average stuff at best, Jhon is continuing to have some success at the lower levels. In 61.2ip this year, he has 64k, 19bb with an era of 3.79.

    Kutter Crawford, 22: In his full season debut, Crawford has had great success. In 58.2 ip, he has 69k/18bb with an era of 1.99. We won't know if his stuff holds up until he faces tougher competition.

    Enmanuel De Jesus, 21: He's had a pretty unremarkable career to date but took a step forward last year and has taken an even bigger step forward this year. In 36.1 ip, he has struck out 46 and walked 9. With guys in the low minors, the scouting reports often lag behind during the season, so it's hard to tell if his stuff has taken a huge jump forward, but the results suggest so. He's seen a huge uptick in strikes out while lowering his walk rate.
     
  8. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,365
    Bullpens in their system as as a whole seem to have the most potential to impact the big league roster because let's face it, no one is cracking the everyday lineup for a long time unless Chavis hits like nothing happened when he comes back.

    I'm not thrilled about the prospects of paying Kimbrel 20 mill well into his 30's so I'm hoping they eventually develop their own guy, albeit much less effective. It seems like a good way to cut costs to spend on starting pitching (Sale or someone else if Price opts out or Porcello eventually leaves.

    Also - bad news on CJ Chatham who has been snake bitten. He apparently has some sort of virus that is serious enough to DL him.

    Dalbec kept up his hot streak until yesterday when he went 0-4 with the golden sombrero.
     
  9. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    Danny Diaz is not doing much else but he has 3 HRs in his first 44 PA (10 games) as a 17 year old. That is pretty impressive. Players don't hit HRs in the DSL. For reference, Devers had 3 in 128 PA, Bogaerts had 3 in 280 PA, Luis Alex Basabe had 1 in 452, Margot had 4 in 309 PA.

    He signed for 1.6mil last year, so he's a legit prospect. He was projected to have above average power.
     
  10. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    Josh Ockimey Update

    First 18 games: .210/.338/.339 in 74 PA with 12bb/23k on a .297 Babip. He had 13 hits, with 2 doubles, 2 HRs.
    Since, 31 games: .342/.430/.622 in 135 PA with 19bb/32k on a .408 BAbip. He has 38 hits in that time, including 10 doubles and 7 HRs. In he last 96 PA, he's only struck out 19 times to go with 13bb.

    For the year, he's now at .295/.397/.520 in 209 PA with 31bb/55k on a .372 BABip and he's still just 22 years old at AA. Josh works very hard and there are a lot of things to like about his progression from year to year. If he continues to cut down on his K rate and hit for contact, we have something. I get he's a 1b, but I'm surprised more people aren't excited by him.

    Marino Campina since May 1st: .271/.338/.543 in 143 PA with 12bb/32k on a .303 BAbip. He has 35 hits and more than half have been for extra bases, with 8 doubles, 2 triples and 8 HRs in that time period. I mentioned it in the 2nd post, but the dude has some serious power and it's nice to see him hitting. In April, he slashed .191/.267/.353 in 75 PA with 5bb/28k on a .289 BAbip. He's cut back on the strikeouts quite a bit. We'll see if it continues.

    Denyi Reyes continues to dominate batters, going 6 innings in his last start, giving up 4 hits with 2bb and 10k. That brings his season totals to a ridiculous 1.85 era, .927 WHIP in 77.2ip with 10bb/82k. Hitters are slashing .215/.246/.319 off him with a .275 BAbip. I absolutely love control pitchers so this guy is my binkie. I love what he's been able to do so far this season, and really for his whole career.

    I don't know what to think of Santiago Espinal because he's old for Salem, but he's also never repeated a league. Since May 1st, he's slashing .345/.389/.545 with 7bb/18 in 157 PA on a .361 BAbip. Until this year, he hadn't shown any power.

    Since last update, Buttery and Scott continue to dominate AAA hitters. Buttrey 4g, 7ip, 2h, 1bb/10k. Scott 2 games, 3ip, 3h, 1bb, 6k.

    Beeks bounced back from his bad major league debut to the tune of 7 ip, 6h, 1er, 0bb/7k.
     
  11. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    Marino Campina really wants people to start paying attention to him. Last 43 games, 181 PA: .260/.322/.563 on a .278 BAbip. 14bb/37k 9 doubles, 4 triples, 11 HR. He had 5bb/27k in his first 72 PA this year.
     
  12. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    Bobby Dalbec's last 35 games: 145 PA, .281/.372/.612 on a .329 BAbip. 13 doubles, 9 HRs. 18bb/40k.
    Bobby Dalbec first 44 games: 185 PA, .204/.335/.454 on a .265 BAbip. 11 doubles, 9 HRs. 26bb/62k.

    Still striking out too much but he's been hitting for average which is nice to see.

    My binkie Denyi Reyes continues to dominate Greenville. Since the last update, he's made 3 starts: 20ip, 13h, 5er, 3bb/15k. Hitters slashed .176/.228/.297 against him with a .193 BAbip. It will be very interesting to see how he does moving up, if he is one of those guys who can get by on less stuff due to elite control. He really doesn't waste pitches and is incredibly efficient. In some ways, he reminds me of Rick Porcello, although Rick Porcello struck out less guys and was in the majors by the time he was 20. Reyes is 21 and still in low A.

    Anyway, Reyes is now at 269.1 ip for his career with a 2.14 era, 27bb/238k. He has given up 230 hits and 15 HRs. That is a career BB% of 2.5%, a K% of 22.4% (25.4% this year), a HR rate of 1.4% and a WHIP of .954. In his first 4 seasons, hitters have put up the following slash lines:
    2015: .253/.270/.316 .323 BAbip
    2016: .222/.245/.341 .252
    2017: .221/.246/.311 .272
    2018: .207/.242/.315 .257

    Since being sent back down to Pawtucket, Lin is slashing .333/.400/.556 in 5 games, 20 PA. He has also had a hit in 26 of his last 27 AAA games, and one of those games he only had 1 PA. During that stretch, he is slashing .353/.395/.543 in 124 PA. His season line at AAA is now .304/.357/.459. He had a 16 game hitting streak immediately followed by a 10 game hitting streak.

    edit: Dalbec had a huge game today, currently 3/4 with a HR and a double while Lin extended his hitting streak to 11 games. That is a hit in 27 of his last 28 games.
     
    #12 bosox79, Jul 7, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2018
  13. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

    Messages:
    11,248
    I think there’s been some bright spots recently.

    CJ Chatham is staying healthy and producing this year. He looks like he could move up to AA after the all star break. He’s also stayed at SS despite the injuries and projections he wouldn’t be able to. If he can produce at AA for August and then in the Arizona Fall Leage (he’d be a prime candidate I think), he would vault up the prospect rankings.

    Austin Rei has also quietly begun to show some ability to hit. His average has climbed from 160 to 240 and his walk rate is above average. He has a good defensive rep and has advanced to AA pretty steadily even though his bat has been lagging. This is a good development goven the lack of catching prospects in the system and the inconsistency of the major league crew.


    The fringe pitching prospects have also been showing signs.

    Darwinzon Hernandez is keeping his ERA in the 3’s and more than 1 K per inning while occasionally dominating. He had a 5.2 IP 0 H 10 K game (walking 5) flashing dominance that was very nice to see.

    Tanner Hauck has also been more good than bad recently, though his overall numbers are still aweful. The key to recall with him is that he was projected as a reliever, so the longer he can remain a starting pitcher at all, the better. (Someday I want to do a study of the predictability of that relationship between # of starts in minors and relief success in the bigs. My trained statistical eye tells me it’s there. )

    Also, Mike Shawarin has been excellent and age appropriate in AA. He was a bit hyped coming out of the draft, and had a above slot bonus after falling out of the top rounds due to a injury plagued bad last college season. So it’s nice to see him performing more like a 2nd rounder at this point.
     
  14. Cuzittt

    Cuzittt Bouncing with Anger Dope

    Messages:
    20,209
    Moving to the Main Board for more visibility and board consistency.
     
  15. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552

    Last 55 games, 230 PA: .276/.328/.552 on a .303 BAbip. 14bb/48k, 12 doubles, 5 triples 12 HRs. K rate of 20.9%, BB rate of 6.1%
    First 18 games, 72 PA: .185/.264/.323 on a .278 BAbip. 5bb/27k, 3 doubles, 2 HRs. K rate of 37.5%, BB rate of 6.9%.

    For the season: 302 PA: .255/.312/.498, 19bb/75k, 15 doubles, 5 triples, 5 HRs. K rate of 24.8%, BB rate of 6.3%.

    He was rewarded for his performance this season by dropping from 48th to 60th on the Soxprospects list. Not sure why there isn't more press about Marino, honestly. He is at an age appropriate level for a legit prospect and is showing some real in game power while drastically cutting down on his strikeouts as the season has gone along. I'd expect him to move up the charts if he continues to hit as he has since May, but he doesn't have the pedigree. He was a $100k signing.

    Ockimey was cold for 13 games (.073/.296/.220, .048 BAbip in 54 PA, 13bb/18k), but has since bounced back (.400/.500/.667, .550 BAbip in 36 PA, 6bb/9k). Since May 1st, .282/.410/.522 on a .358 BAbip in 261 PA with 47bb/68k.

    He's now at .270/.391/.488 for the year in 299 PA with 50bb/82k. His Three True Outcomes (HR, BB, K) percentage is 48.2%.

    My binky Denyi Reyes made one more start and went 6 innings, giving up 7 hits, walking 0 and striking out 8. He now has 105k/13bb in 103.2 IP this year. Just ridiculous. 8:1 K/BB ratio, lol. BB/9 of 1.13.

    Austin Rei last 42 games, 163 PA: .289/.399/.459 on a .340 BAbip. 20bb/32k, 8 doubles, 5 HRs. He turns 25 in October and is still in AA, but Rei was a 3rd round pick in 2015. He struggled quite badly his first 3 seasons so it's somewhat surprising he's hitting AA pitching. For the year, his line is now .246/.365/.398. Maybe the Sox do have a catcher in the system.
     
  16. Cuzittt

    Cuzittt Bouncing with Anger Dope

    Messages:
    20,209
    Trent Kemp has had an extremely mediocre (or worse) year this season. Currently sitting at .207/.294/.430.

    However, over the past 17 games, he has posted a .340/.453/.811 line with four doubles, 7 HRs, and 10 walks. BABIP not absurdly high at .355

    [Previous 41 games, .151/.219/.270 with 5 doubles, 2 triples, and 2 HRs - BABIP .236]

    Now... over his last four games played... he is batting .533/.632/1.667 with 2 doubles and 5 HRs and 4 walks.
     
  17. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    And then gets injured again. He's shown some promise but he can't stay healthy. Reminds me of Henry Ramos, who is having a pretty good year in the PCL and will probably end up making the Majors.

    Trey Ball had a decent 5 game stretch where he went 9ip, 5h, 1 er, 2bb/8k. He followed that up with a 1.2ip, 9 h, 8er performance and a 1 ip 2 h, 1er performance and was put on the 7 day DL today.

    Victor Acosta was promoted to Salem a few days ago, after hitting .285/.323/.458 in 312 PA at Greenville. He just turned 22 in June. He held his own in Salem last year but for some reason started in Greenville. Probably due to depth.
     
  18. BCsMightyJoeYoung

    BCsMightyJoeYoung Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,973
  19. AB in DC

    AB in DC OG Football Writing Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,996
  20. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    Going mostly unnoticed because he's been riding the shuttle, but over his last 36 games in AAA, Lin is slashing .367/.413/.539 in 138 PA. It brings his season line to .316/.371/.461. At some point, he has to get a legit chance.
     
  21. azsoxpatsfan

    azsoxpatsfan lurker

    Messages:
    77
    So far in July, Bobby Dalbec is hitting .341 with 9 home runs and 1.205 ops in 23 games. Season line is up to .255/.368/.564 with 25 home runs in 97 games.
     
  22. Detts

    Detts Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,930
    Reading the Sox prospects page on him it says he has a decent fastball with deception, however his other pitches are meh. You can do well in low A with one pitch, but Salem needs 2. We will find out next year.
     
  23. SouthernBoSox

    SouthernBoSox Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    10,606
    We are going to learn a lot about Dalbec when he gets to AA. Hes as intriguing of a prospect as we have.
     
  24. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    Almost to the point I'd be disappointed if he was traded for a rental.
     
  25. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,365
    Re - Dalbec, a lot of thug hitters you have to hide somewhere, but he touched mid 90's in college and apparently has a ceiling of an average fielding tool which could be good enough to stick at 3b.

    I like that he isn't one dimensional. It gives him a better shot at getting a look.
     
  26. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,432
    Just trying to figure out what source material autocorrect made this weird poem out of...
     
  27. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    It's probably just random noise but for whatever reason, Rusney Castillo starts to mash after May.

    Last 48 games, starting 6/2: 203 PA, .359/.424/.492 19bb/28k. He was even better in July, slashing .388/.455/.537 in 77 PA. His season line is now up to .323/.367/.430. He's not showing as much power as he did last year but he is walking twice as often, bouncing back to his 2016 levels. His R/L split is a lot less pronounced this season too.
     
  28. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    Also, Austin Rei continues to mash. Since May 1st, he is now slashing .297/.406/.477 in 207 PA with 26bb/37k and up to .260/.377/.423 for the year. He struggled mightily his first few seasons in the minors and isn't exactly young (25 in October, still in AA) but he's a former 2nd round pick and a catcher.

    I wonder what the Redsox think of him behind the plate and if his success this year is real.

    Michael Chavis has had meh results in his first 61 PA at Portland, slashing .196/.328/.412 with 9bb/17k. The strikeouts are not encouraging but he has been better since returning from the DL on 7/24. 38 PA, 6bb/7k, slashing .226/.368/.484. 10 of his strikeouts came in his first 23 PA. His overall line in the minors this year including his rehab assignment: .224/.366/.493. The power is still there.

    And my binkie Denyi Reyes hasn't walked a batter in 36 innings. 0bb/32k. Now at 123.2 ip with a ridiculous 123k/13bb.
     
    #28 bosox79, Aug 3, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2018
  29. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    14,958
  30. RoDaddy

    RoDaddy Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,052
    2 dingers already today so he's off and running in AA. Good to see some serious power prospects in the high rungs of the organization in Dalbec and Chavis, and to some extent, Ockimey
     
  31. Cuzittt

    Cuzittt Bouncing with Anger Dope

    Messages:
    20,209
    Good day to hit two home runs as potential prospect Tanner Nishioka and former prospect Josh Tobias each went deep twice as well.

    I was looking at Dalbec and Chavis a bit today and I didn't realize that they are pretty much the same age. While Dalbec is certainly rising in prospect circles... I am not sure he shouldn't be rated higher than Chavis. After all, Chavis picked up prospect steam due to his 31 homers last season between Salem and Portland... a number that Dalbec is likely to top (currently at 28).
     
  32. ehaz

    ehaz Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,027
    I think Tanner Houck is really turning into a serious prospect. Bannister and the player development staff had him abandon his two seamer (one of the best pitches in collegiate baseball at the time he was drafted) early in the season to work on his four seam fastball instead. Part of the idea being, he’d use the elevated pitch like Porcello to counter the launch angle revolution. They also changed his slider to a knuckle curve, which by many reports, has improved the breaking pitch tremendously.

    Until June 14, he had an ERA of like 6 and was having trouble locating after abandoning his number one pitch. Once Bannister and the staff told him to start being primarily a two-seamer guy again, he posted 6 no-hit innings. In the last ten starts, Houck has this line:

    57.1 IP, 9.26 K/9, 3.29 BB/9, 56 GB%, 2.67 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

    He’s also held batters to just a .198 BA and .587 OPS. 81.5% of batters hit a ground ball or strikeout against last year’s 1st round pick in this time span.

    If Houck continues like this, I’m sure he’ll start 2019 in Portland. After a rough start, it’s been impressive to see Houck rebound after having the player development staff completely change his pitch arsenal and approach to hitters.
     
    #32 ehaz, Aug 6, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2018
  33. bobesox

    bobesox lurker

    Messages:
    146
    Was abandoning the 2 seamer part of a process or just something that didn’t work?
     
  34. ehaz

    ehaz Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,027
    I think it was part of the process and an experiment to see if he’d have more success with it as his primary pitch eventually. I’m just going by Bannister’s comments here.

    He will continue to use the four seamer up and out of the zone, but the two seamer is back as his primary fastball.
     
  35. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    Chavis was also a year younger than Dalbec last year when he hit 31 and drastically reduced his K rate. On the flip side, Dalbec walks twice as much but also strikes out more and hasn't shown much improvement in that area. This year, Chavis is walking an insane amount but it's small sample size (15bb/23k in 88 PA). I personally like Dalbec but think Chavis is the safer pick. I'm not really sure why I prefer Dalbec, probably because of the BB% rate and because I think he has more power. Neither one of them have extreme splits, and they are reversed splits too. They are better vs righties. I think Chavis is the safer pick because he's shown progress cutting down on his strikeouts while Dalbec has not.

    It's an interesting question who is more valuable though. It'll be even more interesting if they both finish the year strong. Chavis looks like he is starting to heat up and Dalbec is off to a great start in Portland and has been annihilating the ball since the beginning of July.

    edit: Re Chavis: It's only 5 games but .385/.579/.692 in 19 PA with 6bb/2k. Considering he missed a bunch of time, a slow start isn't very shocking. I'm more interested in the 2k in 19 PA. He got his K rate down to 22% last year, if he can cut it even more or maintain that level... Imagine Dalbec at 22%. Scary.
     
  36. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,365
    I thought Dalbec would have washed out by now so am very happy with his progress. I like him more than Chavis since he actually has a position he can play competently. Though I haven't heard any recent scouting reports on that part of his game.

    They have very low floors but I think Dalbec has just as good a shot at contributing something more than zero in the majors.
     
  37. Cuzittt

    Cuzittt Bouncing with Anger Dope

    Messages:
    20,209
    One thing I really like about Dalbec is that it is rare that he doesn't reach base in some normal way.

    In his 103 games this season, he has failed to reach base only 16 times.

    In 126 games last season, Chavis failed to reach base in 26 games. [Quick counts on each... so may be off very slightly]

    2017 Chavis: .282/.347/.563; 35 2B, 2 3B, 31 HR, 39 BB, 10 HBP, 10 GIDP, 113K (4 Sac Flies) [524 PA]
    2018 Dalbec: .261/.377/.586; 27 2B, 2 3B, 28 HR, 62 BB, 8 HBP, 5 GIDP, 134K (7 Sac Flies) [430 PA]

    Getting on base is a huge part of the game and it appears Dalbec does that better than Chavis with very similar power.

    Now, due to Chavis' suspension, we can't look at apples to apples. The suspension was bad in many ways for Chavis, but the fact that he wasn't playing allowed Dalbec to put himself in a position to take Chavis' position in the Red Sox 3rd base hierarchy away.

    Obviously time will tell on both Chavis and Dalbec. But, it is hard for me to see a major difference between them right now.
     
  38. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    cross posting from a minor league daily thread.


    Including last night's game, his season line is now .300/.332/.387. That is amazing considering where he was at the end of July (.271/.310/.342.) He's another one of my binkies but he's been pretty disappointing this year up until recently. The guy doesn't really strike out or walk either but he hits for solid contact and has a career .320 batting average to date.
     
  39. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,365
    Chavis and Dalbec went back to back and continue to terrorize AA pitching. Home runs were off of #68 prospect Alex Faedo too. They each hit 2 homers.

    Dalbec has 4 homers in his first 22 plate appearances. Chavis is up to a .940 OPS after a really slow start.
    With Ockimey it's nice to see 3 legit power threats this close to the majors.

    Where to eventually put them all is the issue.
     
  40. SouthernBoSox

    SouthernBoSox Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    10,606
    Dalbec has infinite bust potential. The strike outs are still pretty wild for a 23 year old. The power tool is insane though. I think Chavis is much more of a legitimate prospect. He starts next year in AAA and will truly be knocking on the door.
     
  41. Average Game James

    Average Game James Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    653
    If my quick math is correct, since starting out at AA going 4/24 with 11K, Chavis has since put up a nice little .348/.426/.674 line with 4 HR and 9/7 K/BB. Basically, since I pointed out his crappy start in his prospect thread, dude has been on an absolute tear.
     
  42. Cuzittt

    Cuzittt Bouncing with Anger Dope

    Messages:
    20,209
    It is indeed. Especially if they all end up in Pawtucket at some point next year (which is very possible).

    Ockimey plays first (and DHs)
    Chavis plays first and third (and DHs)
    Dalbec plays third (and DHs)
    Sam Travis plays first and the corner outfields (and DHs)

    The problem is giving them enough time in their defensive positions. Plenty of at bats available.
     
  43. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,768
    Is it possible they non-tender Travis this winter? It seems like he's hit a wall in his development--the last time he was an .800+ OPS hitter was in double-A, three years ago now. I wonder if it makes sense to keep him around if he's going to start taking defensive PT away from higher-ceiling prospects like Ockimey.
     
  44. SouthernBoSox

    SouthernBoSox Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    10,606
    Yea, he's an obvious candidate for the organization to move on from.
     
  45. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    Travis has 28 games played in LF this year. He'll probably just move to LF full time.
     
  46. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,365
    Could Chavis move to 2b? There is an obvious future organizational need. Even if he fields like Nunez, that bat should nullify the fielding a la Dan Uggla.

    His arm is great, but I have trouble seeing where else he plays on the big league roster unless JDM moves on after 2019.
     
    #46 grimshaw, Aug 10, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2018
  47. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    I can't remember where, but I've seen it suggested Chavis might be better suited for 2b than 3b anyway.
     
  48. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,725
    Maybe just keep him and sell him for international bonus pool money next year?
     
  49. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,552
    Just hit 31.
     
  50. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,365
    He's tied for 1st in all of minor league baseball in home runs. And I believe he'll be 2nd in ISO.
     

Share This Page