Mike Carp: Newest Face at the Hot Corner?

[mabrowndog]

It's been a month since we had a thread with reports that Carp would be traded away before Opening Day, and that there was "no chance" he'd sign any extension with Boston.
 
Today we get a nice article from ProJo's Tim Britton, who tells us Carp's working to enhance his versatility -- and that it was his idea, prompted by Daniel Nava's success at first base:
 

 
Nava ended up starting eight games at first and playing 86 innings there overall on the year.
 
Carp saw how much learning a new position helped Nava, and so he approached Brian Butterfield with an idea the first day of workouts. How about a few ground balls at third base?
 
“It’s something that I’m familiar with but not completely familiar with,” said Carp, who played a dozen games at third in the Gulf Coast League and Single-A South Atlantic League while in the Mets system nearly a decade ago. “The way our coaching staff prepares us, if I can get with them and shadow Will [Middlebrooks] and watch those guys do their business, who’s to say I can’t get a few at-bats at third this year?”
 
It’s a no-risk move for Carp, who’s not quite a natural defender in left field or at first base. Third base is a spot where the Red Sox are lacking in depth — even utilityman Jonathan Herrera is shallow in experience at the hot corner — and Carp is itching for a chance to see more playing time. Remember, Brock Holt and Xander Bogaerts each played third base last season for Boston, and neither had any experience at the position before spring training.

 
So... How's he doing? 
 

 
Butterfield and Carp had their first session of extra work at third on Saturday.
 
“He caught the ball well,” said Butterfield. “He’s at a point where he’s comfortable with the environment, he’s played well for us. We’re more than willing to see what he looks like over at third base.”
 
Carp is particularly happy that his shoulder — which he injured on Opening Day in 2012 while with the Mariners — feels healthy enough for him to even consider making the throw across the diamond.
 
“It speaks a lot about how our coaching staff thinks and prepares themselves,” Carp said. “Nava came in camp and learned first base on the fly and really helped us out when we needed it. I’m going to do the same thing and see what happens.”

 
An infield with Nava at 1B, WMB at 2B and Carp at 3B would be mighty entertaining this spring -- and downright terrifying anytime after April 1 except in games where they're leading by 10+ runs. But I'm loving the "Let's all become supersubs!" era of this club.

 

[Tharkin]

Sounds like Carp might be a smart guy.  I am guessing that shallow depth at 3B wasn't incidental to his thought process.

 

[Saints Rest]

Mike Vrabel, Troy Brown and Julian Edelman LIKE this thread.

 

[JimBoSox9]

Sounds like Carp might be a smart guy.  I am guessing that shallow depth at 3B wasn't incidental to his thought process.

Ya, I'm sure he surveyed the 40-man and regretfully shelved his first choices of SS and CF in favor of third.

 

[Reverend]

I wonder if this means that Sizemore looks good.

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

Or that WMB's lower back might feel a bit weak.  Or his wrist.  Or his knee, or god-knows-what-all-else.  Carp may be realizing that his prospects depend on betting on injury, and WMB's probably the best injury bet on the roster.
 
Unless he goes Tonya Harding on wombat, though, I think the end result is pretty positive for the Sox.  Even if WMB never hits the DL this year, Carp being able to spell WMB, play half the game in blowouts, take a start every week or two, etc should help Will stay fresh.

 

[dynomite]

Yeah I think all of that is right, MDL.

After the magical ride last season I can't blame Carp for wanting to stay on the Sox.

Brock Holt and Brandon Snyder got over 100 combined ABs in 2013, putting up a OPS ~ .550. In the event of a similar need this year I would much rather have Carp's bat in the lineup. He'll just need to show he can play the position, no easy feat.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I think it's a simply matter of looking at the roster and seeing he can barely consider himself the primary back-up at either of his current defensive positions.  There's no chance of a strict platoon at 1B so at best he might be looking at a game a week there (if it isn't Nava or Ortiz in an NL park that spells Napoli), with maybe an occasional 2-3 game stretch when Napoli needs an extended break like we saw a couple times in 2013.  Only starts he's likely to see in LF will be if JBJ or Victorino need a day against a righty and Nava is shifted to RF.  Adding 3B to his resume means he's at the very least sharing the back-up role with Herrera or Holt.
 
He's on the roster for his bat.  The more ways he can provide the manager to get his bat in the lineup, the better off he'll be.

 

[Saints Rest]

How is Carp bad at defense?  Is it his hands?  His arm?  His range?  Does his defense get worse at 1B (suggesting bad hands)?  Or does it get better at 1B (suggesting bad range)?

Does any of that suggest that 3B might be a better landing spot for him?

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

How is Carp bad at defense?  Is it his hands?  His arm?  His range?  Does his defense get worse at 1B (suggesting bad hands)?  Or does it get better at 1B (suggesting bad range)?
Does any of that suggest that 3B might be a better landing spot for him?

 
The Fan Scouting Report suggests Hands (37 average, 43 in his most innings/votes year 2011) are his best attribute, with First Step (30), Speed (31), Release (29), Arm Strength (31) and Arm Accuracy (30) all being quite poor, with Instincts (34) in between.
 
In truth, he's rated very poorly across the board.
 
In UZR/150, he's minus 3.3 runs in his career at 1B and minus 16.8 runs in his career in the OF.  I believe you would expect a 5-10 run shift typically, so his larger improvement at 1B is consistent with the better Hands rating in the FSR.
 
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7480&position=1B/OF

 

[mauidano]

Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.  Team player, wants to be with the Sox.  Willing to do whatever it takes.  What more can you ask?

 

[MoGator71]

 
The Fan Scouting Report suggests Hands (37 average, 43 in his most innings/votes year 2011) are his best attribute, with First Step (30), Speed (31), Release (29), Arm Strength (31) and Arm Accuracy (30) all being quite poor, with Instincts (34) in between.
 
In truth, he's rated very poorly across the board.
 
In UZR/150, he's minus 3.3 runs in his career at 1B and minus 16.8 runs in his career in the OF.  I believe you would expect a 5-10 run shift typically, so his larger improvement at 1B is consistent with the better Hands rating in the FSR.
 
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7480&position=1B/OF

 
Watching him that's also the impression I get. OK hands, doesn't get to many balls, doesn't get good jumps. I don't recall seeing him try to throw somebody out in the OF offhand.
 
I'm thinking if we're lucky he can get to healthy Miguel Cabrera levels as a defensive 3B, and if he does that definitely has some value. It's the difference between Herrera's bat vs. Carp's on days when WMB sits. 

 

[Rasputin]

Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.  Team player, wants to be with the Sox.  Willing to do whatever it takes.  What more can you ask?

 
That he actually be good at it.
 
I like the initiative and the effort, but holy crap do I not want to see a lot of innings with him at third. Unless he surprises which is, I guess, at least possible.

 

[YTF]

Smart guy, doing what all bench players should be doing in this day and age........building a resume. Creating more cause for his current team to retain him or for other teams to want him. In this day of specialists in the bullpen, the benches are quite short and flexibility is important to teams. A lot of teams are also looking to get more bang for their buck with role players. Be it small market teams that are working with strict monetary limitations or teams that have broken the bank in the Free Agent market or to extend their own. 

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

Realistically, there's very little chance that Carp is going to be adequate enough at 3b that you'd be comfortable playing him there for more than an in-game injury/blowout/very occasional WMB day off. Carp on the roster could hurt (compared to a more traditional backup infielder in the Punto/Holt vein) if Middlebrooks is banged up enough that you want to give him a week off or something, but not DL him. His value is really to mitigate the downside risk of 38 year old David Ortiz, Mike Napoli's hip, or Daniel Nava turning into a pumpkin, since Carp has a real chance to provide an impact bat at DH/1b/LF, which isn't something a whole lot of teams can stash on their bench "just in case."
 
The question is whether Carp can get his 3b defense to "break in case of emergency" instead of "break in case of nuclear apocalypse."

 

[nvalvo]

Even post-injury, Carp has shown a pretty decent throwing arm. 
 
Edit: Can't get the video from MLB to embed. Here's the link. 

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

Your browser does not support iframes.

 
The hell it doesn't.

 

[nvalvo]

 
The hell it doesn't.

 
It was weird. The video showed up in the preview, but was replaced with that helpful message when I hit post.  :angry:

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

The dopes smile at us all.  All a man can do is smile back.

 

[radsoxfan]

Would be great if he could play a passable 3B, though I'm skeptical. He is painfully slow with zero range. 
 
Without Drew on the left side of the IF, this team is starting to look pretty vulnerable to right handed pitching.  Salty, Drew, and Ells are gone.  Not unrealistic to see declines from at least one or two of Ortiz, Nava, and Victorino vs RHP.  Middlebrooks has a career .273 OBP vs righties.
 
Optimistically, if Carp turns out to just be below average there (but not unplayable), he might be a reasonable option in place of Middlebrooks some games.  Certainly would give the bench some flexibility if nothing else. Glad they are going to try it.

 

[mauf]

All three projection systems like Carp's bat better than WMB's. Two of the three like Carp significantly better (10+ pt difference in projected wRC+). And while WMB's advanced defensive metrics are still in SSS territory, neither the data nor my eyes indicate that he's the above-average defender he was reputed to be in his minor-league days.

I'm not writing off WMB by any means, but if he doesn't take a step forward, a 3B platoon is an intriguing possibility even if Carp is -15 with the glove. (Of course, there's no guarantee he'll be even that good.)

 

[radsoxfan]

All three projection systems like Carp's bat better than WMB's. Two of the three like Carp significantly better (10+ pt difference in projected wRC+). And while WMB's advanced defensive metrics are still in SSS territory, neither the data nor my eyes indicate that he's the above-average defender he was reputed to be in his minor-league days.

I'm not writing off WMB by any means, but if he doesn't take a step forward, a 3B platoon is an intriguing possibility even if Carp is -15 with the glove. (Of course, there's no guarantee he'll be even that good.)

 
And that's before accounting before pitcher handedness.  Carp didn't have much of a split until 2013, but Middlebrooks looks to be significantly worse versus righties than lefties.  It's not unreasonable to think Carp could end up with as much as a .200 OPS advantage over WMB vs RHP this year. 
 
If anything close to a platoon becomes a reality, it's probably because WMB is sucking again.  So hopefully it never comes to that. But having Carp as an option once a week off the bench, or in the case of injury, would be an unexpected luxury.

 

[ji oh]

That the Brewers and Pirates have been scouting Carp had been mentioned by several outlets, e.g. http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/3/5465384/mike-carp-trade-rumors-brewers-pirates
 
The Pirates have a lot of OF depth, and some have mentioned Josh Bell, for whom there is no place in the Pirates OF.
 
The Brewers don't have as much talent, but it seems worth noting that OF Mitch Haniger had Sea Dogs hitting coach Rich Gedman as his AFL hitting coach:
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/qa-mitch-haniger-milwaukee-brewers-outfield-prospect/
 
Not pushing this, just looking around.

 

[thestardawg]

there is no way the Pirates are trading Josh Bell, a borderline top 100 Prospect for Mike Carp. That is tradebook fantasy.  Bell has as much chance ending up at 1B rather than a corner, and the Pirates surely could use a 1B.  In any event he's 3 years out from the MLB, and even though the Pirates look stocked with the MVP, Marte and eventually Polanco, strange things can happen. 
 
The Sox would be lucky to get a B- prospect from a team for Carp. 

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

there is no way the Pirates are trading Josh Bell, a borderline top 100 Prospect for Mike Carp. That is tradebook fantasy.  Bell has as much chance ending up at 1B rather than a corner, and the Pirates surely could use a 1B.  In any event he's 3 years out from the MLB, and even though the Pirates look stocked with the MVP, Marte and eventually Polanco, strange things can happen. 
 
The Sox would be lucky to get a B- prospect from a team for Carp. 

 
 
So a 27 year old 1B/LF who posts an ops of .885 is only worth a -B prospect ? I think you seriously underestimate Carp's value ..Hitters like that don't grow on trees. Even if you think his real talent is ~.820 or so that's still pretty good.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

 
 
So a 27 year old 1B/LF who posts an ops of .885 is only worth a -B prospect ? I think you seriously underestimate Carp's value ..Hitters like that don't grow on trees. Even if you think his real talent is ~.820 or so that's still pretty good.

Yeah but for many years of control for Bell I think most people here would drive him to Pittsburgh.

 

[ji oh]

Would the Pirates trade their 1b of 2017-2023 for a 1b for 2014-17?  Bell is worth more than Carp over the long term, but the Pirates made it to the post-season last year and this year seem semi-good but with a gaping hole at 1b.  They also are well-stocked in the OF now and for a while.  
 
Carp for 400-500 abs for them (or the Brewers) should be more valuable than he is for 200-250 abs for us. It might depend on what they and the Sox think his true hitting level is; his complex career (injuries, bad park, good park, some reverse splits, some normal splits) makes him very hard to predict.
 
I'm sure the Pirates are looking at the Mets 1b and others.  But going into the season with Moe Larry and Curly at 1b seems not a good choice for them.

 

[mauf]

Would the Pirates trade their 1b of 2017-2023 for a 1b for 2014-17?  Bell is worth more than Carp over the long term, but the Pirates made it to the post-season last year and this year seem semi-good but with a gaping hole at 1b.  They also are well-stocked in the OF now and for a while.  
 
Carp for 400-500 abs for them (or the Brewers) should be more valuable than he is for 200-250 abs for us. It might depend on what they and the Sox think his true hitting level is; his complex career (injuries, bad park, good park, some reverse splits, some normal splits) makes him very hard to predict.
 
I'm sure the Pirates are looking at the Mets 1b and others.  But going into the season with Moe Larry and Curly at 1b seems not a good choice for them.

Perhaps the Pirates should sacrifice future value to fill their 1B hole, but if they do, they aren't going to trade a blue-chip prospect for a guy who might have them searching for a different solution to the same problem a year from now. (I'm bullish on Carp, but let's face it -- he's a remarkably unknown quantity for a guy his age.) Signing Kendrys Morales, for example, would give them more certain present value without sacrificing as much expected future value.

 

[Mike F]

Except the draft choice and several millions of $

 

[mauf]

Except the draft choice and several millions of $

I'm saying those things are worth considerably less than a prospect of Bell's caliber.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

I'm saying those things are worth considerably less than a prospect of Bell's caliber.

I suppose this raises the question .."what, exactly, IS the value of a prospect ranked in the 80s of a prospect list." The Sox have several guys in the same general area .. Betts, Barnes, Swihart .. I think Swihart is a good comp .. High draft pedigree, lots of tools , hasn't really broken out yet .. Still in A ball. Would you trade Blake Swihart for Mike Carp ? Remember, Swihart hasn't even reached AA. He probably has , at least, a 30? chance of washing out completely, maybe 30? of. being a marginal major leaguer and the rest split between a regular and a star. Carp, on the other hand, already IS a major leaguer .. and probably an above average one.

 

[alwyn96]

 
 
So a 27 year old 1B/LF who posts an ops of .885 is only worth a -B prospect ? I think you seriously underestimate Carp's value ..Hitters like that don't grow on trees. Even if you think his real talent is ~.820 or so that's still pretty good.

 
Except the Red Sox basically plucked Carp right off the "freely available talent" tree themselves. The Mariners gave him away for cash. Any team could have made a better offer than the Red Sox, but chose not to give up any talent of any kind for Carp. I mean, it's possible that a half-season of good hitting as a backup 1B (supported by a .385 BABIP) could completely change the league's opinion of Carp as not worth a roster spot, but it seems unlikely to me. 
 
I actually think Carp could be a perfectly averagish 1B (which is pretty valuable!), but until he actually has a season where he's a legit starter, I think he'll always kind of have that "unproven" tag and he'll lose out to younger guys with higher ceilings or older guys with better track records. 
 
Also, I guess this Carp to 3B thing was just some happy talk? Carp still has yet to get into a ST game at 3B. 

 

[bobesox]

After WMBs last effort maybe it's time.