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Mid-season Prospect List Updates

Discussion in 'Minor League Forums' started by Snodgrass'Muff, Jul 10, 2017.

  1. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers SoSH Member

    BP and BA are out already. Here's how Sox prospects ranked:

    Rafael Devers - 6 (up from 14)
    Jay Groome - 87 (down from 81)
    Michael Chavis - 96 (not ranked previously)

    Former Sox:
    Yoan Moncdada - 1
    Michael Kopech - 20
    Anderson Espinoza - 64


    Rafael Devers - 5
    Jay Groome - 43

    Former Sox:
    Yoan Moncada - 1
    Michael Kopech - 25

    Both lists are free, so click through to read the write ups.

    The Sox are positioned to have anywhere from 3-5 prospects on the top 100 lists going into next season, which will depend heavily on whether Devers graduates or not.

    Devers, Groome and Chavis seem like easy bets to be on those lists if none of them regress much in the second half or exhaust their rookie eligibility. Sam Travis could sneak into the lists on the back end if he doesn't graduate. Top IFA signing Daniel Flores will probably be in the back end in most of them, Tanner Houck may get some play on them as well.

    Outside chances for inclusion also include draftees Alex Scherff and Cole Brannen, Bryan Mata (who has been scratching and clawing his way up the Sox top 60 at soxprospects.com), and if he can turn it back on and finish the season strong, maybe Josh Ockimey.

    The injury to Bobby Dalbec has knocked him out of consideration for now. If he recovers fully, he may be able to muscle his way back into some of the mid-season lists (the top 100's not the top 50's) next year. CJ Chatham, if he can get and stay healthy, could also get on the periphery for those mid-season lists.

    Also keep an eye out for Ronaldi Baldwin, Greenville's catcher. He's making a case for being worth watching right now. If he keeps it up, he may pop up on some of these lists by the end of next year.
  2. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Yeah, I've been pimping Baldwin for awhile now. The power is real, and it's now showing up in games. He's a weird player in that he bats right handed but hits righties considerably better, although that wasn't the case in 2016.

    Amazed to see Moncada at 1 with the huge strikeout concerns.
  3. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers SoSH Member

    Even at a 30% K rate in the majors, he's a star player. The rest of his tools are just too good. And I'm not sure who you'd slot ahead of him, anyway.
  4. santadevil

    santadevil Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Nothing to add other than I love Snod's new avatar

    Thanks for the links
  5. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

    Byron Buxton redux?
  6. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers SoSH Member

    I'd probably bet against that. Buxton is a very strange case. His ml strikeout numbers weren't terrible until he hit the majors for the first time in 2015. Then, all of the sudden, he was a strike out machine.

    Moncada's k rate is high, but it's been consistent over every moderate or larger sample size he's had.
  7. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

    It's trending that players can succeed with terrible K-rates, like Gallo and Sano this year, but historically he is up against it. No one has cracked 20 WAR yet with a k-rate over 30. It's basically Chris Davis, Rob Deer, Russell Branyan, Mark Reynolds types. The only speedy guy with power out of that crew is Drew Stubbs, so he's in a really weird category.

    Those guys don't have anything like the tools he has, but he also hasn't played well in the field yet either.
  8. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

    The obvious comp for a toolsy guy with terrible K rates is Bo Jackson. Jackson's K rates did go down after a few years into just bad rather than epically awful territory, and it was only at that point that he became a good overall player--and then, of course, he got hurt and it all ended.
  9. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

    Keon Broxton is another modern comparison, he's at 38% now which is about 10% worse than his minor league rate. He may have trouble sticking in the lineup long term since it's getting worse.

    I think part of the reason Bo's k-rate improved is because he didn't have the hundreds of extra at bats that a typical prospect would have coming up through the minors where basic improvements could be coached. He had half a season in AA and then he had to learn at the major league level.
  10. soxfan121

    soxfan121 JAG Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Moncada is the new Andy Marte; ranked at the top of prospect lists for seemingly ever.
  11. soxfan121

    soxfan121 JAG Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    His K rate in the minors is ~30%; his K rate in the majors (SSS alert) was 60%. He will need major improvement to post a 30% K rate in the big leagues. Maybe his other tools are good enough to overcome the inability to make contact in more than 1/3rd of at-bats but "star" is probably a little ambitious at this point.

    Prospect evaluators are notoriously loathe to "give up" on a guy they've ranked highly (see Marte, Andy) and Moncada's probably gonna be #1 till he can't be #1 anymore (i.e. loses his eligibility).
  12. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers SoSH Member

    I put exactly zero stock in his very brief major league stint. He'll need to figure out how to keep his strike out rate down to around 30% or better, but it's not like he's not starting from a baseline of 60% and trying to improve from there. See Judge, Aaron.

    Even the current popular cautionary tale, Byron Buxton, has seen his AAA K% stick in the same neighborhood as a major leaguer this year. He was at 27.8% last year and his major league K% this year is 30.7. If Moncada has a similar increase, he'll be in the 30-31% range. (currently at 28.1% in AAA)

    And unlike Aaron Judge, Moncada may need some time to adjust once he does get promoted in Chicago, so an initial K rate closer to 40% doesn't necessarily mean he won't improve in another year or two, either. I maintain that he can get to 30% (maybe a bit better, even) as a major leaguer, and that if he can get to 30% or better, he'll be a star.
  13. soxfan121

    soxfan121 JAG Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Of course you don't. It would fubar your theory. ;-)

    The SSS of his major league sample only confirms what can be seen by the minor league numbers: the guy strikes out, a lot.

    Nope, he's starting at ~30% and it's going to go up when he gets to the big leagues (barring some miraculous change in his skills). If he K's in 1/3rd of his at-bats, he can still be an effective major leaguer. He could even qualify as a "star" in that he could be the only player on the White Sox worthy of an all-star berth. He won't be a "STAR" in the sense of being a great player unless he can cut that number to below 33%. He probably can, but it's an article of faith at this point, not something based on evidence.

    Right. His % will go up in the big leagues. Not by much, but at this level, not much is a big deal.

    Nope, nothing precludes a guy with skills from improving. But for every Judge or Buxton, there's a Brandon Wood or 15 lurking in the weeds. Only time will tell if he's more Andy Marte than not.
  14. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

    Judge was around a 25% k-rate in the minors too- perfectly fine. He struggled in the majors last year which is a lot more understandable.

    Buxton also brings fantastic defense at a premium position, so his floor is higher right off the bat. He can whiff at that rate and still be useful. He's basically been a less feeble Bradley with speed circa 2014.

    Moncada's floor and ceiling couldn't be further apart because the fielding is still a work in progress along with the whiffs.
    #14 grimshaw, Jul 11, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2017
  15. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers SoSH Member

    We are obviously on opposite ends of the spectrum of starting points. You seem to be starting from "he's a bust until he proves otherwise" and I'm more in the camp of "he's the number one prospect in the game for a reason, so he's a good bet until proven otherwise." Both are viable places to begin forming a prediction.

    That said, looking back at number 1 overall prospects over history is, at the very least, interesting. Here are the number 1 overall guys at the start of the year per BA. Spoilered for size. Guys I would consider a star for at least a portion of their careers (more than one season) in bold.:

    2017: Andrew Benintendi
    2016: Corey Seager (Maybe stretching a touch here, but I don't think that's unfair. He's 1.5 years in and looking just as good through the break this year)
    2015: Kris Bryant
    2014: Byron Buxton
    2013: Jurickson Profar
    2011 and 2012: Bryce Harper
    2010: Jason Heyward
    2009: Matt Wieters
    2008: Jay Bruce
    2007: Daisuke (with Alex Gordon being the top actual prospect)
    2006: Delmon Young
    2004 and 2005: Joe Mauer
    2003: Mark Teixeira
    2002: Josh Beckett
    2001: Josh Hamilton
    2000: Rick Ankiel
    1999: JD Drew
    1998: Ben Grieve
    1996 and 1997: Andruw Jones
    1995: Alex Rodriguez
    1994: Cliff Floyd
    1993: Chipper Jones
    1992: Brien Taylor
    1991: Todd Van Poppel
    1990: Steve Avery

    I stopped going back when the list got to a point where I don't have a lot of memories of the names playing. Before 1990, most of what I remember is specifically Red Sox players. Anyway, you may quibble with a name or two that I've bolded, but 17 of the 27 names would qualify, IMO.

    Daisuke only had one season that you'd consider calling him a star in, so I left him off. If you don't consider him a prospect that year and put Alex Gordon on the list, then it's 18 of 27.

    And I'd put money on Benintendi being worthy of including in a few more years.

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